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​Democrat Special Ops Forces Drive Tank Into Daily 202!!

Tax Reform is done. Legislatively that is. Politically the game is just starting. And the Washington Post’s James Hohmann must have felt like he’d been run over by the Democrat Establishment’s heavyweights with his face mask grounded into the snow-covered frozen turf in, say, Buffalo. Allow me to elaborate a little.

  • First of all, and most importantly, the snow game in Buffalo a few weeks ago looked like a blast. Made you wish you were there tossing up bits of snow in the air after the game-clinching touchdown in the final moments. This is not a comment on any preference for either team in that game.
  • Hohmann seems to be more of a baseball fan as far as can be seen.
  • Hohmann writes the Daily 202 newsletter for the WaPo, a fairly detailed insider look at the days important events in D.C. It is not a conservative newsletter, by any means.
  • Hohmann wrote a Daily 202 newsletter last week that focused on the fact that as 2018 passes by, the GOP Tax Reform would likely become more popular than it's currently abysmal rankings in polls would indicate.
  • The Democrat Establishment responded by driving a tank through Hohmann's cubicle - or over his laptop if he eschews cubicles. That is, James Hohmann was inundated with emails, text messages, and phone calls from party activists etc. furious that he would cede an inch to what is now the GOP and President Trump's singular major legislative achievement for 2017.
  • Come on man, you write for the Washington Post! What. Were. You. Thinking!!?? Do you or don't you want us Dems to retake the House AND the Senate next fall??!
  • So he responded in kind in the next Daily 202 with a list of 10 Reasons Why Democrats Think the Tax Bill Will Be A Political Loser. At least he had the honesty to mention how inundated by partisan activists he was after his previous Daily 202.

Depending which Daily 202 you're referring to, Hohmann may be right, or may be wrong, but he's now covered both sides of the issue, so safe to say one of his predictions will turn out to be right by the time mid term election votes are all counted next November. Right?

Maybe neither. In a fascinating piece at AEI, Karlyn Bowman says hold on a sec. It is far too early to predict what effect, if any, the Tax Reform will have on the 2018 midterm elections. She makes several interesting points:

  • President Trump is the issue in most polls, not taxes, which are generally not a top-tier issue for most voters. And if taxes are a top concern for a voter, that voter is already likely to be GOP.
  • A large share of voters do not have an opinion on the tax bill due to a lack of information. Not that the information isn't out there, it's just that voters haven't parsed the details enough to make up their minds in many cases.
  • Given that the information is about government tax policy. brought to you by government spokespeople or policy experts, and criticized by other government people and/or policy experts; and given that trust in government is at all time lows; any selling of this tax reform is going to be a huge challenge. It will be easier to confuse than to convince, needless to say. And Chuck and Nancy are well out of the starting gates in terms of the confusion game.

So President Trump and the GOP have their work cut out for them, and even if they manage to stay on the same script - doubtful but who knows? - all their work may not be relevant or trusted by enough voters to make a real difference in the coming mid term elections next fall. Depressing, but it's a battle they have no choice but to fight. And maybe enough jobs will continue to be created and pay checks will get just fat enough that voters won't turn both Houses of Congress over to the Democrats. Or maybe the mid-terms will revolve around some other, unrelated event.

It's also a tad dispiriting to write about upcoming political fights in this season of forgiveness and glad tidings, but if Bowman is right, maybe - almost certainly not but let's dream a little - just maybe both sides will realize that the narrative battle over Tax Reform isn't worth it. Wouldn't that be something? Posted by AllardK at December 27, 2017 6:58 PM

Comment #422764

Actually, the tax reform legislation will play a big role in the upcoming midterms. The ‘reform’ did away with the individual mandate. As a result, healthier people will be less likely to sign up for insurance, leaving insurers to cover a pool of less healthy and therefore more expensive individuals. This means insurers will have no choice but to raise their rates substantially. And that is something voters will most definitely notice.

The GOP said it would ‘repeal and replace,’ but previous efforts to replace were horrendously unpopular. Polling showed their plans received approval ratings in the teens and low twenties. The tax reform bill was the most unpopular piece of major legislation passed in the past 30 years, again polling in the 20’s.

The chances of the GOP coming up with legislation prior to November are negligible. The problem is that Republicans never cared about health care in the first place. They simply wanted to pay for tax cuts for the rich by taking away the money for health care for the middle class and poor.

Posted by: phx8 at December 27, 2017 9:54 PM
Comment #422780


“This means insurers will have no choice but to raise their rates substantially. And that is something voters will most definitely notice.”

Obamacare has already made insurance prohibitively expensive for most middle class people who are having to buy on the exchanges. Allowing more competitors in the market, and allowing people in one state to purchase insurance from outside their state, as well as allowing ala carte policies again would go a long way to reducing costs. Either way the mandate doesn’t go away until 2019. So I don’t see it having much of an effect on the midterms. The extra money in hands of the average person will.

We get our insurance from my wife’s employer and have seen our premiums and deductibles rise, and coverage drop. This IMO have a lot to do with the coverage mandates, IE one size fits all approach of obamacare, and the subsidies to those paying nothing, or next to nothing for insurance.

“They simply wanted to pay for tax cuts for the rich by taking away the money for health care for the middle class and poor.”

The tax cuts will help the middle class and poor. They will have more net income, and will see the standard deduction, and the child tax credit double.

Posted by: dbs at December 28, 2017 7:57 AM
Comment #422792

IMHO the dems should be high fiving Trump and the repubs, sing their glories while letting the voters know they didn’t help one iota. This is all on the repubs this “tax reform” thing, they should get the glory or be ran out of town come November. Of course 2018 is a bit to quick as the full effect of the repub “tax reform” won’t be felt for a year or two.

I personally think dbs is right they need to allow more competitors in the market and get insurance globally. This kind of foolish argument has been going on for years now, make it happen so we can see just how well these insurance companies compete. They will start buying other insurance companies until there are two or three left and we have no choice, same as most other sectors. On the positive side they will only have our federal representatives to bribe instead of the many different state legislatures.

I think Trump will be the greatest thing to happen to government in this country in just a few short years. A complete conservative agenda …what could go wrong! Nothing like a hands on lesson for the gullible conservative movement followers.

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