Third Party & Independents Archives

How Should Trump Deal With North Korea?

It’s being reported that within the next year to 18 months NK will have a nuclear weapon that can hit the US mainland. Some say there is still time to negotiate or use sanctions and so on - - -

I don't believe there is sufficient time left to accomplish any of that. Too late. Too many Obama years wasted sitting on our hands. Now, Trump has to do something and pdq.

Dead options were: sanctions on NK and/or China. Try to get Japan and S. Kor. to defend themselves with their own nukes. Try to reach some kind of agreement thru diplomacy. Install missile defense system in Japan and S. Kor. Go to war with NK.

None of that seems doable or desirable, IMO. If the goal is solely to prevent NK from developing a deliverable nuclear weapons system then here is a possible plan:
Pull a Navy/military task force together from the US and other countries that might want to participate. Place ships in international waters off the coast of N. Kor armed with missiles capable of taking down any NK'ean missile that leaves NK'ean air space and enters international waters.

We could invite other countries to participate. Some countries might provide land based missile sites to support US missile batteries.

Through such an effort the US could prevent NK from properly testing their long range weapons and thus, prevent them from developing a significant number of deliverable nuclear tipped missiles. If NK can't test their delivery system they can't invest in producing a large number of weapons.

The US keeps an active naval force in the Pacific around the clock. A beefed up task force would be cost effective and provide excellent training for those serving with the task force.

How might NK react? They might stop launching test missiles into international waters. They might try to buy and assemble weapons from Iran, Pakistan or similar. Putting a cork on their nuclear program might force a regime change. NK might attack S. Kor.

We should be ready for any outcome but wasting any more time is not an option.

Posted by Roy Ellis at July 26, 2017 10:59 PM
Comments
Comment #418670
Pull a Navy/military task force together from the US and other countries that might want to participate. Place ships in international waters off the coast of N. Kor armed with missiles capable of taking down any NK’ean missile that leaves NK’ean air space and enters international waters.

I do not think it is a good idea to parade the limitations of US anti-missile technology right in China’s backyard for anyone to see.

How might NK react? They might stop launching test missiles into international waters.

Because North Korea can easily test its weapons without using international waters, spending loads of money to simply cause a modification in their testing procedures is unlikely to be cost effective.

Posted by: Warren Porter at July 27, 2017 12:20 PM
Comment #418679

Roy, thanks for your analysis.

This can has been kicked down the road by the last three administrations. Clinton, Bush, and Obama all wished to take the easy out, and did.

Now, it is time to shit or get off the pot. Now is the time for our NATO allies and the rest of the free world to unite. The United Nations is worthless in this matter.

President Trump, as leader of the free world, should make a public plea to all nations wishing to participate, to gather in a place and formulate a plan. He should make clear that he would like to act in unison with others; but he should also make clear that he will act alone if necessary. Avoiding world conflict should be in the interest of our European allies and all those who abhor war.

Posted by: Royal Flush at July 27, 2017 3:56 PM
Comment #418681

Agree Royal. A parade is much better than a one-man band. I’m sure several countries would throw in, sufficient to label the mission as an international effort.

Warren, give us some words on how NK could test their missiles without actually testing them. They’ve got to reach a point of confidence where they are willing to invest some $$ in a fleet of such missiles if their intent is to use them.

Your point on revealing the limitations of our defense system is valid. But, me being a Trump supporter, we want to put everything in our defense arsenal to the test, wring it out, see what works and what don’t. Then, fix those things that don’t work. If we don’t have a system that can take down missiles 100% of the time then we need to work on that til we do and make sure Russia and China are aware of same.

This could be a great mission to check out and improve our missile defense system.

Warren, do you have a plan to deal with NK?

Posted by: Roy Ellis at July 27, 2017 5:54 PM
Comment #418682

All this bluster. All this fear. As if we haven’t seen this movie before. If you have forgotten, it ends badly.

Posted by: Rich at July 27, 2017 6:48 PM
Comment #418683

? Rich

Posted by: Royal Flush at July 27, 2017 7:01 PM
Comment #418688
give us some words on how NK could test their missiles without actually testing them.

My point was that it would not be hard for the PDRK to test missiles in their own territorial waters.

President Trump, as leader of the free world, should make a public plea to all nations wishing to participate, to gather in a place and formulate a plan. He should make clear that he would like to act in unison with others; but he should also make clear that he will act alone if necessary. Avoiding world conflict should be in the interest of our European allies and all those who abhor war.

What is this “act alone if neccessary”? We’ve already sanctioned North Korea six ways to Sunday, the only (unilateral) sticks remaining on the table would be a military intervention. The only way to avoid war is either to provide enough carrots to tempt North Korea to change (dubious in my opinion) or to tolerate North Korea’s new weapons.

Posted by: Warren Porter at July 27, 2017 8:49 PM
Comment #418689

We need some words on how they would test a missile system designed to go 8k miles all within their territory.

Tolerating their new weapon would mean we would have to have missile defense systems at the ready for ions. Not very cost effective, IMO.

Better to break him over a ten year period then try to get the two Koreas together.

Denying him a nuclear capability will keep him weak an ineffectual for as long as necessary.

Rich, how would you deal with NK? Are you willing to risk that he is all bluster and won’t lob some nukes our way?

Posted by: Roy Ellis at July 27, 2017 9:40 PM
Comment #418691
We need some words on how they would test a missile system designed to go 8k miles all within their territory.

One can test a missile by shooting it straight up rather than at the angle which maximizes its range. If the missile routinely reaches an altitude that indicates that it was launched with enough kinetic energy to send it 8000 miles on a different trajectory, then the North Koreans can be just as confident in the missiles’ performance as they would be if they tested them with a more realistic trajectory.

I am not making this up. July 4th’s Hwasong-14 test only traveled 930 kilometers (580 miles) horizontally before landing in the Sea of Japan, yet the experts reported that the missile had a proven range of 6,700 kilometers (4,160 miles). This is because it was launched at a steep angle close to vertical. Accordingly, the missile reached an altitude of 2,803 kilometers (well beyond low earth orbit), which implies that if it had been fired at a shallower angle, it would have traveled more than 6,700 kilometers (4,160 miles).

Tolerating their new weapon would mean we would have to have missile defense systems at the ready for ions. Not very cost effective, IMO.
The marginal cost of missile defense against North Korea is negligible given that we already pay to defend against Chinese and Russian missiles.
Are you willing to risk that he is all bluster and won’t lob some nukes our way

The risks are no different from those posed by Mao & Stalin in previous decades.

Posted by: Warren Porter at July 27, 2017 11:45 PM
Comment #418708

Republicans are the ones who just lost ‘Bigggly.’

McCain just gave the country, the American people, and his own party, the middle finger. More importantly to McCain though, he just guaranteed Trump will be a one term President.

The ACA isn’t going anywhere, Americans are going to continue to suffer under it. They will be told that the democrats failure is actually a Republican failure, and the more they suffer, the more they will believe the lie. The more they believe in the lie, the less they will remember all the government overreach and loss of freedoms that the left has given us, and promises more of.

If fixing our health care system is what brought Republicans and moderate democrats to the polls before, those voters no longer have any reason to show up and vote for them in 2018 and 2020.

Posted by: kctim at July 28, 2017 10:32 AM
Comment #418709

Dang it.
Sorry about that Roy. I thought I was posting that last post mine to your Bigggly post below.
My apologies.

Posted by: kctim at July 28, 2017 10:35 AM
Comment #418714

The only way to avoid war is either to provide enough carrots to tempt North Korea to change (dubious in my opinion) or to tolerate North Korea’s new weapons.

Posted by: Warren Porter at July 27, 2017 8:49 PM

And that is why Warren Porter is not now, or ever will be, in charge of anything to do with the protection of this land. Thank God.

Limited and stinking thinking.

It seems the Left and Socialist will tolerate nearly anything to avoid conflict that might involve sacrifice on their part.

Posted by: Royal Flush at July 28, 2017 1:56 PM
Comment #418727

If the commander in chief wants to conscript an invasion force to destroy North Korea, I am willing to risk my life and do what I can to help my country. But, I’m not foolish enough to self-delude regarding the consequences of such a war.

North Korea’s hostile weapons programs will continue as long as China remains their benefactor. Nothing Trump or other Republicans have proposed has any chance of changing that relationship.

As long as war remains off the table, there are no credible sticks available for Trump to use to persuade North Korea.

Posted by: Warren Porter at July 28, 2017 4:48 PM
Comment #418728

As long as war remains off the table, there are no credible sticks available for Trump to use to persuade North Korea.
Posted by: Warren Porter at July 28, 2017 4:48 PM

We appreciate your declarative statement Warren.

As I said earlier, your limited thinking is why we are so pleased that you have no hand or input into our conduct regrading plans for our national security.

“Nothing Trump or other Republicans have proposed has any chance of changing that relationship.”

Warren is still operating under the Obama way of conducting national defense where military plans are announced to the world in advance of their implementation.

We are pleased that President Trump, our Commander-in-Chief, does not believe in early warnings for actions against our enemies.

I would guess that Warren believes that since the president has not announced his next move, he must not have any.

Silly Lad.

Posted by: Royal Flush at July 28, 2017 5:15 PM
Comment #418730

A suprise military strike doesn’t seem like a good idea for avoiding war.

Posted by: Warren Porter at July 28, 2017 6:00 PM
Comment #418744

Let’s say that NK lobs a nuke and kills 500 people in the US. What would be your response, Warren?

Posted by: Roy Ellis at July 28, 2017 8:05 PM
Comment #418747

Roy,

The response would be no different than what we would do if Russia or China lobbed a nuke and killed 500 Americans. Mutually-Assured Destruction would ensue.

That said, the scenario is quite ridiculous because if North Korea is launching one of its precious nuclear weapons, it is going to target far more than 500 people.

Posted by: Warren Porter at July 28, 2017 8:31 PM
Comment #418753

Good response there, Warren. But, I’m not in the camp of tolerating NK having nuclear weapons. Taking the risk that he won’t use them.

I like the idea of shooting them down and perfecting our defense system to do so. The risk here is that NK might go on a war footing. But, it’s the US causing his problem so maybe he wouldn’t attack SK.

One wonders what China and Russia think of NK having a bomb. I believe Russia is all for it but China, I’m not sure. With a nuke capability China might not have the leverage over NK that they feel they have now.

Posted by: Roy Ellis at July 28, 2017 9:40 PM
Comment #418776
But, I’m not in the camp of tolerating NK having nuclear weapons. Taking the risk that he won’t use them.

But you are in the camp of tolerating many other nations having nuclear weapons, taking the risk that they won’t use them. There is nothing categorically different between Kim Jong-Un and Josef Stalin or Mao Zedong. All three of those madmen had nuclear weapons yet they could be trusted not to initiate armageddon.

it’s the US causing his problem so maybe he wouldn’t attack SK

Officially, PDRK views the ROK as an American puppet state. There is zero doubt that they will hold South Korean civilians culpable for American military actions.

One wonders what China and Russia think of NK having a bomb. I believe Russia is all for it but China, I’m not sure. With a nuke capability China might not have the leverage over NK that they feel they have now.
China & Russia certainly would prefer if North Korea didn’t acquire nuclear weapons. However, the United States has not been able to negotiate a deal to leverage their influence. I blame this mostly on the failure of TPP, which would have enhanced American soft power throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Posted by: Warren Porter at July 29, 2017 10:22 AM
Comment #418838

Warren, I’m not convinced that a free fall from space would be equivalent to a high speed, straight line trajectory, more horizontal to the earth as it relates to heat shield-reentry.

Some are talking that S. Kor and Japan should stage missile defense systems in their respective country. Also, maybe Taiwan and another island or two could do the same.

But, IMO, this would not change NK’s attitude at all. But, it would get China’s attention.

I believe NK should be denied nukes. Any other option is a non-starter with me. China might take our shooting them down better than the placing of defense missiles all around Asia.

NK might be willing to lob one missile at the US just to put us on notice, and so on - - -

If they accomplish a near miss the US might tolerate that.
Or, they might land a planned dud in the heartland, etc.

I would like the billion or so back from Iran.

Posted by: Roy Ellis at July 29, 2017 9:04 PM
Comment #418848

“I believe NK should be denied nukes.”

That ship left a long time ago.

As Warren has pointed out, China is the only country with any real leverage and they know it.

Trump seems surprised and disappointed that the Chinese only gave lip service to his offer to drop US objections to Chinese monetary and trade policies in exchange for their help in shutting down North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Did he think that the Chinese were going to give up that negotiating chip so easily? The more we express fear of NK, the more valuable that chip becomes in US-China relations and negotiations.

The question then becomes whether the Trump administration is willing to play hardball with China. Having given up the TPP as a competitive Asian economic trading block to China, the US is left with undesirable unilateral economic weapons (tariffs, etc.). We have no trade agreements with China to leverage. The TPP was less about jobs and more about US geopolitical strategic interests.

After all the huffing and puffing, we find ourselves at the same place. There are no reasonable direct military options. There are no obvious diplomatic options. Stalemate. The same place that the last five presidents found themselves in.

A bit of caution about all these discussions. I, for one, don’t know an awful lot about North Korea or its relationships with China and Russia. Why is there still a state of war with North Korea? Who is supplying North Korea with technical expertise in nuclear technology, missile technology and cyber warfare? What role does North Korea play in the larger game of US-Chinese and Russian relationships?

A little less bluster and more thoughtful insights would be helpful.

Posted by: Rich at July 30, 2017 5:28 PM
Comment #418858
The question then becomes whether the Trump administration is willing to play hardball with China. Having given up the TPP as a competitive Asian economic trading block to China, the US is left with undesirable unilateral economic weapons (tariffs, etc.). We have no trade agreements with China to leverage. The TPP was less about jobs and more about US geopolitical strategic interests.

Just to clarify, China was never a participant of TPP. TPP was more about strengthening US ties with non-Chinese nations in the region, particularly Vietnam & Malaysia. If we had maintained that coalition of pro-US countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region, the US could be a lot more persuasive when negotiating with China. Instead, China is now annexing the small islands of the South China Sea unopposed.

A bit of caution about all these discussions. I, for one, don’t know an awful lot about North Korea or its relationships with China and Russia. Why is there still a state of war with North Korea? Who is supplying North Korea with technical expertise in nuclear technology, missile technology and cyber warfare? What role does North Korea play in the larger game of US-Chinese and Russian relationships?

I recommend two websites: Ankit Panda’s The Diplomat and Jeffrey Lewis’ Arms Control Wonk.

Posted by: Warren Porter at July 30, 2017 9:10 PM
Comment #418860

Warren,

I fully understand that China was never a part of TPP and that the strategic benefit of TPP was to create an economic trading partnership to counter China’s continued economic expansion and control.

The decision by Trump to withdraw is a good example of penny wise and dollar foolish policy.

Posted by: Rich at July 30, 2017 10:43 PM
Comment #418863

Warren,

Thanks for the references. Interesting reading, particularly The Diplomat.

Posted by: Rich at July 30, 2017 11:21 PM
Comment #418870

Although no one expect a war (except NK), it will definitely happen in near future if the world continue ignore NK. Poor South Korea.

Posted by: instagram online at July 31, 2017 6:58 AM
Comment #418887
I fully understand that China was never a part of TPP and that the strategic benefit of TPP was to create an economic trading partnership to counter China’s continued economic expansion and control.

Yeah, I misread your comment. That’s what I get for trying to multitask.

Thanks for the references. Interesting reading, particularly The Diplomat.

Don’t forget to check out the podcasts each site produces.

Posted by: Warren Porter at July 31, 2017 7:39 PM
Comment #419176


I like Trump’s latest position on NK - fire and fury if any more threats.

So, I’ll have to modify my position on just taking out their every missile shot until they get tired/broke and quit.

We would need 3 carrier task force’s along the peninsula. Put S. Kor. on a war footing. Put out a notice, no subs withing 100 miles of task force. At oh dark 30 lay about 50 moab bombs on gov’t bldgs in the capital. Same for any suspected missle silo/launchpad. Lay moabs and every other kind of arsenal available along a 20 mile stretch of N/S border.

Make Kuwait attack look like a firecracker.

I think you would get the white flag within 24 hours. If not, moab any/all gov’t bldgs/complexes. Turn the first 20 miles over to S kor and bomb the next 20 miles, and so on until u do get a white flag.

Basically him them so hard and fast they can’t respond effectively. Maybe fly the heavy stuff from Japan, S kor, other.

IMO, that would cause the fewest number of casualties and save S Kor from a major attack.

Posted by: Roy Ellis at August 8, 2017 8:13 PM
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