Third Party & Independents Archives

Trump's Jacksonian Tweets on the Arctic

With Steve Bannon’s role in Trump’s White House apparently reduced in a power struggle with Kushner - and by extension Ivanka Trump - how about Rich Lowry and Matthew Continetti taking up his role? In other words, as rivals and the president himself prune Bannon’s ability to interpret and define what Trumpism may or may not be, it seems that Rich Lowry at the formerly NeverTrump National Review, and Matthew Continetti at the Washington Free Beacon (a previously searingly sarcastic commentator on the GOP primaries in 2015-2016), are the ones now doing that job. Just not from the West Wing.

For example, Lowry's recent piece in National Review outlines Trump's foreign policy with regard to Syria and North Korea, and frames it in a Jacksonian context: a dangerous chaotic worldview that determines when and where America defends it's national interests. It may be hawkish but it is not neo-con, according to Lowry. The key difference between a hawk and a neo-con being the latter's optimistic - some might say delusional - view of national building and the bloodily determined interventionism that flows from such a neo-con worldview.

There is another area of the world that some feel will be increasingly hot - in every sense of the word. And this area will be fought over - is being fought over without direct conflict already.

The Arctic.

But the key to this view is, of course, global warming. Now, the evidence is mixed - if you are a true believer then the overwhelming bulk of the evidence points towards warming: all of 1.9° over nearly 150 years since the 1880's. And studies by the EPA and climatologists estimate a fraction of a degree of cooling by 2050 should a carbon tax policy be put in place around the world (especially should it be put in place in America of course).

So Trump nixing the carbon tax does not mean that Long Island suddenly becomes a hot spot for iceberg viewing - while they last. But in the Arctic climatologists insist there is an amplifier effect and that significant arctic warming is and will be happening at the top of the globe.

If they are right, and we'll see about that, then less arctic ice means more bare surface and easier mining and drilling. Or offshore drilling. That means a race to claim and define any mineral and energy rights around the arctic. So countries like Norway, Canada, and Denmark are already gearing up for the big race. Which of course will mainly be decided by Russia and America.

What would a Jacksonian foreign policy look like in a warming Arctic? It's not an issue that Trump will likely be tweeting on any time soon. But it may be such an issue at some point in the near future. All you would need would be a stand off in the Arctic Ocean between a Russian vessel and its American counterpart. Alaska is key in all of this of course. And the state will likely or is likely trying to influence President Trump's Arctic policy. Whatever that is.

You never know, a Trump Arctic tweet may be mere months away. Wait for it.

Posted by AllardK at April 20, 2017 11:36 AM
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