Third Party & Independents Archives

Election 2016 Prediction Thread

This is an open thread to discuss the election results as they come in. I also invite people to brag about who they voted for as well as peer into their crystal balls and make some predictions.

I'll start things off by saying that I proudly cast my vote for Gary Johnson and Bill Weld for President. I also supported the libertarian running for Congress in my district, although I'm quite sure he'll lose to the incumbent Democrat here. On the other hand, I decided to vote for the Green Party candidate running for Senate.

As for my predictions, I think the Presidential Map will be mostly in line with what the professional prognosticators predict, except I think Hillary will pull an upset in Omaha. Also, I think the GOP will do better in North Carolina that the polls suggest.

My thoughts on the Senate are fairly conventional. Tim Kaine will be needed to confirm Clinton's Supreme Court nominee.

As for the House, I think Democrats will pick up at least a dozen seats. Not enough for a majority, but enough to send a message to the GOP warning them of the dire electoral consequences of further intransigence.

In particular, I am looking forward to seeing the following districts flip:
CA-25 (Steve Knight)
CA-49 (Darrell Issa)
FL-07 (John Mica)
FL-13 (David Jolly)
IL-10 (Robert Dold)
ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)
MN-02 (John Kline)
NH-01 (Frank Guinta)
NJ-05 (Scott Garrett)
NV-03 (Joe Heck)
NV-04 (Creschent Hardy)
TX-23 (Will Hurd)

I think Democrats will lose at least one seat:
FL-18 (Patrick Murphy)

Others which I think might flip include:
FL-26 (Carlos Curbelo)
VA-01 (Barbara Comstock)
CA-26 (David Valado)
KS-03 (Kevin Yoder)

Posted by Warren Porter at November 8, 2016 8:09 AM
Comments
Comment #409698

Prediction:
Hillary Clinton wins 350 EV’s, 5.5% margin for the popular vote. Democrats come out with 54 seats in the Senate.

In other words, a big win for HRC & the Democrats. Those reports of huge numbers of Latinos voting in FL and NV convinced me. Apparently the number of Latinos doing early voting and absentee ballots in FL doubled. Also, organization and GOTV efforts count. They should add one or two percent to what the polls counted, hence HRC 5.5%

In other other words, take the demographics that resulted in Obama’s win in 2012, and add to that by the amount the demographic make-up changed- about 1.5%.

Posted by: phx8 at November 8, 2016 9:33 AM
Comment #409700

In order to get 350 EVs, Hillary’s gotta win in Iowa & Ohio. Neither of those states have significant Hispanic populations. Why are you so bullish about her chances there?

Posted by: Warren Porter at November 8, 2016 9:44 AM
Comment #409702

Thanks for helping to get Trump elected, Warren Porter. A vote for Don Johnson is a vote against Hillbilly.

Posted by: Weary Willie at November 8, 2016 10:29 AM
Comment #409706

I think she will win OH. Iowa looks unlikely, but I think she will pick up every other ‘battleground’ state. If she picks up AZ it would be 352.

Posted by: phx8 at November 8, 2016 10:48 AM
Comment #409711

As usual my ballot was a mixed bag. I voted for HRC/Kaine at the top, Tim Scott for Senate, and I voted for the American Party of SC candidate Rudy Barnes for House 5. In fact the American Party had a candidate up against Scott, “Rebel” Mike Scarborough, that I wanted to consider but I know Tim personally and know that his heart is in the right place.

Our House 5 Congressman, Mick Mulvaney, lost me the moment he started his campaign. His ads cited his two big accomplishments in Washington as 1) not spending his entire budget, and 2) not taking a foreign visit. If that’s all you’ve got then you’re not getting my vote.

I predict HRC wins MI and PA and loses Fla and NC. NV is the “one to watch” race but I don’t think Trump can pull it off. Republicans hold onto both Senate and House and we have a chance, maybe a real chance, to get back to budget fights again. After years of CRs wouldn’t that be nice?

Posted by: George in SC at November 8, 2016 1:20 PM
Comment #409714

Warren says he think Democrats will pick up at least a dozen seats in the House and believes this should send Republicans a message warning them of the dire electoral consequences of further intransigence.

Friends, I ask you; is this a totally partisan statement?

Consider that in the midterm election of 2010, the Republicans picked up 63 seats, the highest loss of a party in a House midterm election since 1938, and the largest House swing since 1948.

Did the Democrats take that beating as a message of warning?

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 8, 2016 2:52 PM
Comment #409715

I have no predictions to make for president.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 8, 2016 3:08 PM
Comment #409716

This is startling…

Voto secreto Trump? Most Hispanics back deportation, want immigration cap cut in half

“An election eve poll finds sweeping support for immigration enforcement even among most Hispanics in the United States, potentially bolstering Donald Trump’s presidential bid.”

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/voto-secreto-trump-most-hispanics-back-deportation-want-immigration-cap-cut-in-half/article/2606769

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 8, 2016 4:39 PM
Comment #409718

Democrats lost seats in ‘10 because the economy sucked, not because they were being intransigent. Once things got better, they won a majority of the votes cast in HoR elections in ‘12. It looks like they are on track to repeat that feat today as well.

Posted by: Warren Porter at November 8, 2016 5:44 PM
Comment #409719

LOL…there is always a reason for losing Warren. You are the one writing comments linking “intransigence” with seat loss.

What is your “prediction” above based on Warren? Tea leaves?

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 8, 2016 5:55 PM
Comment #409720

No, it’s based on hubris.

Posted by: Warren Porter at November 8, 2016 6:29 PM
Comment #409722

Hubris is a great answer Warren.

I purchased celebratory food to eat should Trump win. The same food will be used for solace should Clinton win.

Win-Win

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 8, 2016 6:38 PM
Comment #409724

I was being sarcastic.

Posted by: Warren Porter at November 8, 2016 8:20 PM
Comment #409727

Trump is having a good night. I am in shock. If Clinton pulls a victory out of her hat, she will have much to reckon with.

Posted by: Warren Porter at November 8, 2016 10:37 PM
Comment #409728

Also shocked, WP. Markets are crashing. Futures for US down -750, Mexican peso down 7%. Thank goodness I am in cash. Well, people wanted change, and many were willing to burn this country down in order to achieve it. We might see just what blowing up the American experiment looks like.

Although there is still a real possibility HRC will win, it will be close. It is an absolutely horrifying demonstration of just how far this country has fallen… And if Trump wins, just how much further it can fall.

Posted by: phx8 at November 8, 2016 11:05 PM
Comment #409729

phx8, A Hillary Clinton win.

Posted by: Rich KAPitan at November 8, 2016 11:26 PM
Comment #409732

At this point, it’s over. Donald Trump will be President in 10 weeks.

Posted by: Warren Porter at November 9, 2016 1:08 AM
Comment #409733

I called it. Trump wins !

Posted by: dbs at November 9, 2016 3:00 AM
Comment #409736

We just witnessed a massive failure or fraud by the main stream media. Most, if not all polls were not even close.
Was it an honest mistake, or a fraud that backfired.
A lot of people won’t have any faith in the MSM and polls for a long time.

MSNBC is now saying uneducated racist white males and rural people are to blame for Trump winning.

I have a friend who said his healthcare insurance just went up from $400 to $800 with a $13,000 deductible (for him and his wife). Maybe that has something to do with it? Who said it was “the craziest thing in the world?”

Posted by: D.a.n at November 9, 2016 4:14 AM
Comment #409738

Be prepared for worse, DAN! You think the problem was Obamacare? No, the problem is that Health Insurance companies are still greedy!

Hey Royal Flush! You’ve told me you guys knew it all, that we were the worst ever, etc, OMGWTFBBQ!

Now, you got to demonstrate that you knew better all along. Now. There’s nobody left to blame, no more than there was in 2006. You’ve got your trifecta, once again, that thing you were lying, cheating, stealing, breaking constitutional and civic order to get. You got people all convinced that there was some sort of massive conspiracy in Benghazi, and this and that, and the other. You won!

But did you stop to consider what you were winning? No, you didn’t. Winning was everything for you people, and now, you have to live with the consequences. All the stupidity and hate, all the injustice… there’s no one else left to stop it or hide it from view. People will see you, and your assumed superiority for what it is, soon enough, and I will enjoy listening to you trying to explain each and every fiasco, like some Baghdad Bob.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 9, 2016 6:05 AM
Comment #409750

Well I missed MI and PA didn’t I… throw in Wis too and wow just wow.

Like C&J said in the other column I did not vote for or or did not particularly want this populous uprising. As bad as our crooks are the U.S. is still the best country to call home and as long as the establishment could maintain that (it was in their best interest to do so) I was good. But 1/2 of the country thought otherwise and the Democrats appointing the ultimate insider as their candidate didn’t help any. Oh well.

So I congratulate President Camacho, I mean Mr. Trump, and look forward to some very entertaining political years! Wonder who gets fired first???

Posted by: George in SC at November 9, 2016 11:03 AM
Comment #409754

Well he was the best the repubs had to offer and he beat out Clinton on the electoral college end of the election, although not the popular vote. So if nothing else I am sure he will keep many a comedian employed with his “leadership” over the next four years.

Posted by: j2t2 at November 9, 2016 12:06 PM
Comment #409762

It’s morning (not mourning) in America. Like everyone else on the planet, I was stunned as this win was unexpected.

The President-elect has no political record to point to what his administration will actually look like. I hope he surrounds himself with savvy people, not ass-kissers and theorists.

I fully expect Mr. Trump to try and keep his campaign and election night promises of bringing America back. I believe he can be one who unites our divided nation. I believe his main thrust and energy will be spent fixing our jobs and economy. I believe he will try and be fair to winners and losers alike.

God Bless our new president and God Bless America.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 9, 2016 1:56 PM
Comment #409767

Royal to soon to tell if it is morning or mourning in America IMHO.

Trump has some big promises to live up to. Can’t wait to see him renegotiate NAFTA with Mexico and Canada whilst building a wall, paid for by Mexico, on the southern border and refusing to sign the TPP whilst “fixing our jobs and economy” and jailing Clinton while on trial for fraud…. ought to be interesting.

Posted by: j2t2 at November 9, 2016 2:36 PM
Comment #409815
Stephen Daugherty wrote: Be prepared for worse, DAN! You think the problem was Obamacare? No, the problem is that Health Insurance companies are still greedy!
Nonsense. Getting rid of Obamacare will be a good thing. Especially since (as Bill Clinton said) it is the “craziest thing in the world”.

$800 per month for a married couple, with a $13,000 deductible, IS indeed crazy. What caused that? It wasn’t like that before Obamacare.

The way Obamacare was designed, it was doomed to fail.
First of all, most things run by the federal government are almost always thoroughly screwed up, inefficient, mismanaged, and corrupt.

All the federal government had to do was set up a non-profit insurance system that competes with insurance companies. It would charge the lowest possible premiums. No one is forced to participate. IF the premiums are the lowest available, since it is non-profit, it should have a lot of participants.
Right?!

Therefore, the other for-profit Insurance companies should not be able to compete, eh?

A non-profit, government-run health insurance system should be able to out-compete against those evil, greedy health insurance companies!
Right?!

However, that’s not what would happen.
The federal government can’t run anything (except into the ground usually).
Examples: Social Security, $70 Billion per year of Medicare fraud, federal government fraud, immigration, fair trade deals that are not fair at all, and of course: Obamacare; a dismal failure; the Veterans Administration; etc., etc., etc.).

So, how sad is it that the federal government is unable to compete with Health Insurance companies. IF you want something done right, don’t expect the federal government to do it. You might want the federal government to take care of you from cradle-to-grave, but unfortunately, the federal government is not good at managing most things.

Want to talk about “greed”? I think that’s a word that a lot of voters would attribute to Hillary Clinton. Maybe that was part of the problem too, eh?

It appears like a lot of Americans finally got sick and tired of the corruption; lying; open borders; constitutional violations; massive uncontrolled illegal immigration; Obamacare; idiotic deals with Iran; excessive 35% taxes (really a tax on consumers) on corporations that are driving companies out of the country; etc.

But, cheer up!
It is only a matter of time before Repugnicans have had their turn at abusing power, and the Democraps will then get their next turn at abusing their power. That’s what they do. That’s all they do. And why shouldn’t they, when Congress has 85%-to-90$ re-election rates. Maybe, some day, the majority of voters will figure that out, and stop rewarding corrupt politicians with perpetual re-election? IF voters were smarter, they would vote out massive numbers of corrupt incumbent politicians from BOTH parties. That is probably that only thing that would shift power to the voters. But, unfortunately, the majority of voter prefer to wallow in the circular partisan warfare.

At any rate, the majority of voters have the government that they elect, and re-elect, and re-elect, … , and re-elect, until repeatedly rewarding corrupt, incompetent, greedy politicians with perpetual re-election finally becomes too painful.

Posted by: d.a.n at November 9, 2016 10:12 PM
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