Third Party & Independents Archives

What The California Democratic Primary Will Do

On Tuesday, June 7, 2015 the biggest most populous state in the union will hold its democratic primary and the balance of the presidency itself is on the table. Which of course will have people all next week asking the question: “Who won the Democratic California Primary, 2016?”..

Going head to head at almost a dead heat in delegates and superdeleates are former Secretary of State and First Lady, Hillary Clinton who so far has edged out a small lead against her opponent Rep. Bernie Sanders, I, VT. The news is full of the two battling one another with claims, accusations, and whatever, but the two have not become vicious toward one another, unlike the Republican candidates that had become so vitriolic one might have thought venom would be flying through the air.

The reason for the downplay on the viciousness of Democratic attacks is that Hillary Clinton would lose to Bernie Sanders hands down. Clinton has amassed so many negative issues regarding both her professional, personal, and political life, that many fear she'll be indicted for her email server debacle that has yet to let up. In the wings are the final reports by the FBI regarding Clinton's conduct, where she and her office in the State Department used personal email services to discuss some issues deemed later to be of a classified nature. So far, the Department of Justice has found Clinton guilty of several counts but the real slam down will come should the FBI's findings match or surpass those of the Dept. of Justice.

Should the FBI drop a bombshell on Clinton, it doesn't matter how many delegates she's got, she's going to be arrested on several counts and brought to trial thus invalidating her credentials to run for the high office. Californians are fully aware of this issue and it's a sure bet it will weigh heavily on voter's minds. Should Clinton either dominate or eek out a lead, she'll have the undisputed votes to be the Democratic nominee, but also a great chance at winning the presidency.

Should Sanders win California, and there are indicators that he has that chance, he'll have enough votes and delegates to give Clinton a run for her money during the convention. It may, as many predict, fall on what the super delegates do. In some states they're required to do one thing and in others are given a free hand. Should these delegates suddenly turn to Sanders, during the convention, Hillary will be knocked out of the box and Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, might be looking at a trouncing by Sanders in the presidential election.

It might take several days to get all the results in from California as it has a massive population of voters, many who are independent but are switching to Democrat in order to vote. Those statistics have experts peering into the possible results with microscopic precision.

Tuesday is the big day. The balance of not only the nation is at stake, but that of the world itself.

Posted by GregB at June 6, 2016 9:02 PM
Comments
Comment #405156
First Lady, Hillary Clinton who so far has edged out a small lead against her opponent Rep. Bernie Sanders, I, VT.

Say What? Chicago Tribune says:

Clinton’s victory is broadly decisive. She leads Sanders by more than 3 million cast votes, by 291 pledged delegates and by 523 superdelegates. She won 29 caucuses and primaries to his 21 victories.

That’s a far bigger margin than Obama had in 2008, when he led Clinton by 131 pledged delegates and 105 superdelegates at the point he clinched the nomination.

Posted by: ohrealy at June 7, 2016 5:26 PM
Comment #405160

“So far, the Department of Justice has found Clinton guilty of several counts…”

That is wrong. That is factually, 100% wrong. She has not been found guilty of anything whatsoever, nor has she been charged, indicted, arrested, or whatever.

“Should the FBI drop a bombshell on Clinton… she’s going to be arrested on several counts and brought to trial thus invalidating her credentials to run for the high office. Californians are fully aware of this issue and it’s a sure bet it will weigh heavily on voter’s minds.”

Apparently not. Hope you did not bet much. Voters supported her in huge numbers and Hillary won big. Get a new crystal ball, bucko. And stop listening to that crazy conspiracy stuff.

The turnout from tonight’s primaries strongly suggests HRC will win CA, NJ, and NM in the general election, and Trump will win MT, SD, and ND. That outcome would be the same as in 2012. And in 2012, Obama won the electoral college in a landslide. Just some food for thought…

Posted by: phx8 at June 8, 2016 12:29 AM
Comment #405166
the Department of Justice has found Clinton guilty

What country are you even talking about GregB? Better brush up on the U.S. legal system before posting nonsense.

Trump will win MT, SD, and ND

pdx8, I don’t think Drumpf will win anything. At this point, I still don’t believe that he’s actually going to be nominated by a political party that wants to continue to exist.

Posted by: ohrealy at June 8, 2016 1:27 PM
Comment #405170

“At this point, I still don’t believe that he’s actually going to be nominated by a political party that wants to continue to exist.”

Well, you may be right, Orealy. A number of conservative pundits are running up the flagpole the idea that the GOP could change the rules and avoid a first ballot victory by Trump. Probably not going to happen but the fact that the idea has even been raised is incredible.

Posted by: Rich at June 8, 2016 3:07 PM
Comment #405173

No doubt, Trump may singlehandedly destroy the GOP, and a lot of Republicans can see this. It is virtually impossible for a politician to succeed when they say a recent Trump statement was a textbook example of racism, yet they will vote for him anyway. That doesn’t work. The GOP politicians know they will be saddled with that baggage for a long time to come, and that a party that accepts racism cannot win national elections, given the demographics.

This quote from the NYT illustrates the problem:

“Asked which of Mr. Trump’s policy statements he preferred over Mrs. Clinton’s, Senator Dan Coats, Republican of Indiana, paused for 11 seconds before saying, “I don’t know that I want to deal with that.”

In 2012, Romney took only 27% of the Latino vote. This was enough for the RNC election post-mortem to recommend reaching out to Latinos. Now Trump has alienated them even further. A recent poll showed Trump receiving 18% support among Latinos, and I am surprised it is even that high. That number alone is enough to spell electoral disaster. And it is not likely to get better. Latinos heard Trump loud and clear, and the protests outside Trump rallies may become even more violent.

Out of 2,472 delegates at the GOP convention, less than 20 are black. Less than one percent.

The thing is, politicians like their jobs. They want to keep their jobs. And Trump is making it impossible for them to do that. Finding some way to deny him would make sense, but it is nearly impossible without alienating large swaths of the base. Part of the fault is with Trump. But another part is with Republican leadership. They let the Birthers proclaim that conspiracy without a protest, because it undermined Obama. They went along with Global Warming denial because it helped them collect money from the fossil fuel industries. They allowed the base to believe the stock market had gone down and unemployment had gone up- a majority of Trump supporters believe that!- and they went along because it undermined Obama. Now the base believes a lot of things that are simply not true, and they want to know why the leadership did not do anything about it. The base has punted on conservatism in favor of Trump and overt racism and bigotry and so on.

The GOP has no reasonable way of denying Trump the nomination, but they can refuse to support him. At this point, that is their only hope- everyone campaign for themselves, and pretend the national campaign is not happening.

Posted by: phx8 at June 8, 2016 4:09 PM
Comment #405174

I can’t picture HRC participating in a debate with Drumpf, if he is nominated. It would be like debating Bozo the Clown.

Posted by: ohrealy at June 8, 2016 4:16 PM
Comment #405175

Trump will want nothing to do with debating Hillary Clinton if he can possibly help it. He knows nothing about foreign policy. Or domestic policy, for that matter. His approach depends on name-calling and insulting and bizarre rants and stoking personal feuds. I’m not even sure what he says qualifies as lying. He just makes stuff up on the spot. He has been on both sides of almost every issue, sometimes multiple times within a matter of days. So what is the point of exposing his weaknesses to HRC? Trump can call names and insult without bothering to debate.

However, I think the polls will soon show HRC opening a large lead. If it goes into double digits, Trump may have no choice but to call for a debate as a kind of Hail Mary pass, in hopes of catching up. But at that point, HRC will not want to bother with the insults and name-calling.

Then again, she smoked the Benghazi Committee during an eleven hour session.

Over the past 25 years she has been attacked more than any major politician. She can take the ugly attacks and still come out on top. The idea of debating Trump will certainly be tempting for her.

And if the polls do open into double digits in the next few weeks, the GOP very well may find some way to replace him as their nominee.

Posted by: phx8 at June 8, 2016 4:49 PM
Comment #405176

If he is nominated, I can’t see Drumpf doing as well as Goldwater, who at least had some credentials. His numbers may end up more like a third party candidate. The biggest problem right now for HRC is Bernie. They still have to get past the convention. She can’t exactly tell him to shut up and go away. This year should change all the mechanics of how we conduct these processes, but it probably won’t.

Posted by: ohrealy at June 8, 2016 5:17 PM
Comment #405177

“Trump will want nothing to do with debating Hillary Clinton if he can possibly help it.”

He can’t avoid debating HRC. There are three presidential debates already scheduled, one in Sept. and two in Oct.

Posted by: Rich at June 8, 2016 5:41 PM
Comment #405186

Aw, don’t rain on the parade, Rich. These yearly ‘death of the GOP’ rants are entertaining.

Posted by: kctim at June 9, 2016 8:51 AM
Comment #405196

kctim,
It is true, the ‘death of the GOP’ stories have been popping up since the economic crash of 2007 - 2009. Demographic trends are unfavorable the GOP at a national level, yet they seem unable to change and adapt. However, that alone is not enough to blow up the party.

Trump does represent a disaster that may break the party apart. Why? And is this ‘the death of the GOP’?

Trump has already announced he has no intention of putting money into the campaign; instead, he will rely on free media, campaign rallies, and a very spare campaign team. This matters because he will not help anyone else in the GOP that way. It makes a lot of down ticket Republicans very nervous about finances and the failure to make effective use of all the new technologies. Trump will have none of that. So as far as support from the party nominee, everyone is on their own. In case anyone hasn’t noticed, an outsider has taken over the party, and it is every person for themselves. Second, a spare campaign team does not work in a national setting. For example, Trump has three people in charge of communications on his staff; Hillary has 20. It showed this past week, when Hillary completely dominated the airwaves with positive stories and a great speech, while Trump struggled badly. That is what a good communications team and a strong organization do. The HRC team will find a way to do this on a daily basis, if possible- Obama endorsing one day, Biden endorsing another, Sanders endorsing, and so on. Third, Trump’s temperament and erratic statements are hanging anchors on the GOP candidates. Those candidates like their jobs, and Trump may cost them something they worked very hard to attain; plus, losing majorities in the Senate and maybe even the House means losing power and control.

Realistically, a third party run at this point is not feasible. But neither is saying ‘that was a textbook racist comment,’ followed by ‘I’m supporting him!’ The other alternative is for the Republican Party to turn its back on him as much as possible. Tough to do, though. That’s an ‘R’ next to Trump’s name.

They are going to own this one a long time.

Posted by: phx8 at June 9, 2016 3:43 PM
Comment #405197

The polls these next few weeks will tell all. If Trump is down double digits, panic will ensue.

Posted by: phx8 at June 9, 2016 3:47 PM
Comment #405200

Demographic trends are unfavorable the GOP at a national level
The biggest news story this week should be that, because of changes in the primary system in California, two Democrats are running for the Senate, because they both got more votes than any Rpblcn. That’s probably the future.

Posted by: ohrealy at June 9, 2016 4:41 PM
Comment #405201

Phx8, I’ve heard ‘the end of the GOP’ ever since I was voting democrat in the 90s and it’s always the same song and dance: the left starts shouting that Republicans are too far right, establishment Republicans start moving (progressing) to the left, and the Conservatives have a fit.
And look where we are now. The Republican candidate holds much of the same positions President Clinton and soon to be President Hillary once held, and the left is shouting he is too far right.

This isn’t the death of the GOP, it’s just one of the last steps to becoming the democrats of yesterday.

Posted by: kctim at June 9, 2016 5:05 PM
Comment #405203

kctim,

“The Republican candidate holds much of the same positions President Clinton and soon to be President Hillary once held, and the left is shouting he is too far right.”

So far that is the one thing I haven’t heard about Trump.

Trump is an a$$ hat, with the temperament to match, and as such, is probably the perfect storm of being the worst possible choice to be President.

Rocky

Posted by: Rocky Marks at June 9, 2016 7:43 PM
Comment #405204


Oh, and BTW, Tim, if Trump truly wants the judge to recuse himself why aren’t Trump’s lawyers petitioning to have the judge removed from the case.

Seems to me all Trump hopes to gain out this whole kerfuffle is to continue to dominate the news cycle with more banality, and to not spend any of his own money in the process.

Rocky


Posted by: Rocky Marks at June 9, 2016 7:47 PM
Comment #405210

Rocky,
The ‘end of the GOP’ claims are based on Trump tearing the party apart by not bowing to the ‘establishment’ Republicans.
The left-wing constantly refers to Trumps support from Europe’s far-right leaders and makes ridiculous comparisons of him to Hitler.
Those who openly support border security, immigration reform, the Second Amendment and repealing the ACA as Trump claims to, are said to be so far-right that not even Reagan would be accepted into the party.

Trump is an a$$ hat and trying to use the media to his advantage? You’re not expecting me to disagree with that, are you?
I’m not a Trump supporter, Rocky. I could care less about the petty personal attacks.

Posted by: kctim at June 10, 2016 9:17 AM
Comment #405232

Even the Koch brothers are distancing themselves from that old party.

Posted by: ohrealy at June 11, 2016 1:30 PM
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