Third Party & Independents Archives

Can Ted Go a-Thwarting in Brooklyn (and Berkeley)?

If you want to change parties, go west young woman - yes young men too. Anyone, in fact, who becomes convinced they’re backing the wrong candidate in the wrong party will find that voter registration deadlines - crucial in closed primaries - are earliest down (and north) east and much later out west. Fivethirtyeight has a great little chart summing it up.

And New York State had the earliest registration of all. That's a problem for Sanders. And perhaps it's also a slight drag on Trump's hometown favorite status. Will it mean he won't get quite as big a victory in New York as he needs to keep the not-so-magic-but-still-pretty-magic number of 1,237 alive? In delegate terms, over 80 - especially 82 delegates and up - would be a pretty good victory for Trump, leaving open the possibility of clinching the nomination without a messy convention.

But what about Ted Cruz and John Kasich? How delegates get apportioned between them will be a litmus test of Cruz's strategy of micro-targeting of conservative state delegates in places like The Bronx and Brooklyn. It will also be a litmus test of how harmful or perhaps useful Kasich's stubborn campaign really is. If both do poorly, Cruz can say: hey I fought the good fight and did not back down. But Kasich will face even more calls for him to drop out. A moderate candidate who flops in New York State is a burden to the GOP by any standard.

But as New York's primary gets picked apart - Hillary will win. That's all you need to know on the Democrat side and Bernie's loss will either be a big loss or a symbolic loss of less than 10% that can be claimed as a victory somehow - remember California. Cruz's success - or lack of - in micro-targeting individual districts in New York will be a primer for his strategy in California at the end of the nomination process. Because in places like Berkley and Los Angeles there are delegates for the picking. And if Ted can pick up enough in Brooklyn and then some more in Berkeley in June, he's sure to thwart Trump and force a contested convention. Unless Kasich is still at it in June. Which is certainly possible.

Posted by AllardK at April 19, 2016 7:57 PM
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