Third Party & Independents Archives

Kasich not Fade Away

Trump may meet his Madison in Wisconsin. Not the Father of the Bill of Rights, but more indirectly, the city in Wisconsin that bears the founding father’s name, and where Kasich perhaps ends up being useful. To Ted Cruz that is. Because in Madison, unlike the rest of Wisconsin, it’s Kasich not Cruz who is - as fivethirtyeight say - competitive. In other words, Wisconsin could become an illustration of how Kasich and Cruz can work together to deny Trump the 1,237 delegates he needs to avoid a messy convention battle.

And it's a state where - Madison aside - Ted Cruz is beating Trump in the polls. But the question on a broader scale is, can Kasich actually help Cruz by stubbornly staying in the race? The only rational way for this to be the case is for two things to be true: Cruz can never get to 1,237 on his own by this point in the race; and Kasich can do damage to Trump's campaign in certain North Eastern and rust-belt states.

Given the polling in New York, one wonders if the second part of this is true. Perhaps in some states, but perhaps not. The first part is an easier assumption to hold onto. It would take a miracle right now for Ted Cruz to get to 1,237 delegates. His only way to the nomination is to stick as closely to Trump as he can. And Kasich does not help at all there. Becuase Kasich wants a blood-filled convention round-robin, where he can rise over the fray as the peace maker. Or something like that.

Without Kasich in the race, could Cruz concentrate fully on exposing what he sees as the poorly-thought-out plans of Trump? While shifting slightly towards some of Trump's postures on issues like immigration. Maybe instead of complaining - or having his aides complain - about Kasich, Cruz should just ignore the stubborn governor from Ohio. Pretend it's just him and Trump and take it from there. Oh. He already seems to be doing that. Will it work? Will Kasich fade away? Not so far.

Posted by AllardK at March 31, 2016 7:58 PM
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