Third Party & Independents Archives

The Washington Consensus on Immigration

Guess what: the not-very-Tumpista Fox news poll is showing Trump at 25%. In second place, it’s Ben Carson with almost identical numbers, (12% a little less than half of Trump’s numbers), to his PPP poll numbers from last week. And Ted Cruz is in third with 10% having had, one suspects, a very nice bump as well from his polished fury at the debates in Cleveland. Yes Jeb Bush is next at 9%, but what strikes one is where Marco Rubio sits: in 9th place with just 4% and barely ahead of Chris Christie and Rand Paul. And clearly, immigration is an important issue as far as voters’ view of the GOP candidates. That might explain Rubio’s fall after his apparently polished performance in the GOP debate.

There is a very interesting paper from Stanford's Broockman and Ahler that Byron York was almost forced to dig up like a reluctant researcher to explain the Trump phenonema. Voters in America tend to connect with a candidate who represents or fits better with their own individual mix of policy views. And, just as importantly, they prefer orthodox politicians who best fit their own mix of policy views rather than moderate candidates who also fit their views, but who blend liberal and conservative views in a bridging of public opinion. In other words, the average American voter is far LESS moderate than the average American politician: whether on the left or right. This evidence from scientific polling done by Broockman and Ahler runs in direct contrast to most accepted academic orthodoxies of the last couple of decades, which affirm voters are more moderate than politicians and elites who tend to foster deep divisions on a centrist populace.

Specifically, Broockman and Ahler's study of citizens views on solutions to illegal immigration show that a majority of Americans (according to their sample studies) support hard-line immigration policies that are similar or even more hawkish than those outlined in a policy paper by Trump this past weekend. With help from Jeff Sessions of Alabama. The evidence suggests that Trump's positions on immigration are not way outside the mainstream, but rather well within it. More so than the center-liberal-business consensus that you can't deport and you have to naturalize those already in America. Maybe Trump is still riding high because his positions on issues like immigration and jobs resonate with a considerable number of voters. More than the accepted consensus in Washington D.C. Maybe much more.

Posted by AllardK at August 18, 2015 7:29 PM
Comment #397749

Allardk, the hardest thing, in this country today, is to know the facts, or know the truth. Every individual has to decide who/what to believe and act on his own _______ about an issue.

Kain’t think of the right word.

So, who can we trust to provide factual/truthful information? I don’t trust the liberal university/professor crowd. I don’t know enough about any politicians to put my trust in them. I believe the media outlets are biased. I don’t trust many of the gov’t agencies that provide data/numbers like HUD, IRS, USAID and so on - - -

So, you can either follow the crowd, or a crowd, or make your decisions based on your observations and the information you have filtered from the voluminous information encountered.

Re immigration: was a good thing for a much younger nation, when mfctring was king, the West was yet to be won and so on - - -

I see it differently today. The West is won, mfctring is gone and not likely to ever return. The US birthrate, w/o immigration, is just maintaining at about 2 births per family. The population is growing through immigration.

Maybe gov’t/corpocracy feels they need to increase the population to take care of future social security/medicare requirements as people are living longer and their is fewer workers paying into the social security coffer.

We have maybe 20% unemployment but as I can tell no one really knows the real number. High unemployment among teens and college graduates.

We are being told that robots will replace a big chunk of the workforce in the coming years. Which workers? CEO’s or wait staff? Those replaced will be unskilled or low skilled wage earners such as clerks, restaurant staff, cab/truck drivers, and so on - - -

We will continue to need farm laborers which is mostly seasonal and could be handled with an efficient visa program.

I’m not in favor or foreign women flying in to deliver their ‘anchor baby’ and returning on the next flight. I am in favor of giving birthright citizenship to, say a family who fled their homeland in fear of their lives and found their way to the USA and subsequently had a baby.

Recall that Regan promised to secure the border, whatever that means, and now we have a tenfold number of immigrants to take care of. This, at a time of the 2nd worst recession in our history.

I’ve no way to put a cost on the loss of wages by the labor force as a direct result of an overabundance of cheap labor. But, it is bigtime huge, IMO.

Media and gov’t and corpocratist tell us it is impossible to send those immigrants home. I believe that most would self deport within a few months if they were denied jobs and entitlements. Knowing that many could return under a work visa program would help in some regards.

I believe we need a secure border, whatever that is. We need a border to prevent drug and people smugglers, criminals/felons, drugs, would be terrorists and so on from entering the country via the southern border.

In a somewhat crass and embellishing way, Trump espouses much of what I feel about immigration. It is bigtime clear from the last 40 years of immigration policy the pols/corpocratists are going to do whatever they can to maintain the status quo - - - argue about the border all you want but keep it open at all costs.

I can’t know what Trump really feels or would do if elected President re immigration. I do believe he would be totally ineffectual at attempting any major change/reform.

I believe Trump is resonating with a number of people who feel pretty much as I do re immigration. I’ve no way of knowing if he can ramp up his base numbers or, get thru the GOP maze to receive their nomination or, whether he could get enough minorities/indies/liberals to vote for in numbers sufficient to win a general election.

Other GOP presidential candidates would do just fine as President. But, read my keystrokes, none would be able to move the corpocracy off their open borders policy for immigration.

Otherwise - - -

Posted by: roy ellis at August 23, 2015 2:51 PM
Comment #397788

Just thinking back, what condition would the US be in today had the North American Union plan been implemented?

Posted by: roy ellis at August 24, 2015 12:20 PM
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