Third Party & Independents Archives

Swinging Hard in North Carolina

Kay Hagan, junior US senator for North Carolina came in to the Senate with President Obama in 2008, and is determined it seems not to leave the Senate until after Obama leaves the White House. Whether she has managed to distance herself enough from the president and his low approval ratings remains to be seen, but she is leading Republican Thom Tillis, Speaker of the State House, by a slim but consistent margin. Polling shows Hagan has a clear lead among women voters, a strong lead among young voters, and an overwhelming lead among African American voters. And both candidates have just about the same approval rating within their own party. RealClearPolitics, however, has a difference of about a percentage point between the two candidates in their average of several polls including the PPP poll that shows Hagan ahead by 3, with Tillis quickly closing what had been a 4 point gap, starting about a month ago. If North Carolina breaks late, as it seems to have a tradition of doing, then it may be an even closer race than many polls are showing and will mean a late night in November until the final result is known.

Negative ads are in full swing on both sides of the campaign in North Carolina, and, as polling and electoral results have consistently shown, they tend to work. Sometimes there can be a backlash and it is speculated that anger over some of the negative ads, (the atheist attack ad on Hagan in particular), in the 2008 race, where Hagan defeated Elizabeth Dole to win her senate seat, may have been a contributing factor. But don't expect negative ads to diminish in the home stretch; Republicans need to get out the base vote in the Tar Heel state to pull ahead of a tired Democratic base that are burdened with an unpopular president and dissatisfaction over the country's direction. They need to ensure that Republicans get out and vote, and that discouraged Democrats stay home. With a polarized electorate, maybe the middle ground does not count for as much in electoral terms in North Carolina as in some other states. Expect the Tillis campaign team to keep swinging hard right up to the final bell on in November.

Posted by AllardK at October 24, 2014 3:51 PM
Comment #384619

As a South Carolinian living in the Charlotte NC television market, I’m tired of this one! Crossroads GPS and Koch are running ads on the Hagan family (husband, son, and brothers in law) stimulas grants while the DSCC is running an ad saying that Tillis’ record on women is “horrifying.” Those ads run back to back and consume the airwaves to the point where I can’t remember a Hagan or Tillis campaign ad proper.

Definately the outside money is going to this race.

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