Third Party & Independents Archives

Who's Gonna Win?

Regardless of what countless polls are saying, no one really knows the answer to this. Now that Hurricane Sandy (Frankestorm) slammed the northeast, it could affect the ability of people to vote. Additionally, all this talk and banter about “What if they tie?” is redundant. The likelihood of that happening is very slim.

The election predictions were thrown to the wind as soon as Mitt Romney walked on that stage in the first presidential debate. Ever since then, regardless of what media and polls predict, it's too hard to tell who will win. Obama is still playing the "war on women" card, but the truth is that Romney has picked up a lot of support from women.

Democrats all say that Romney is having trouble making gains to catch up, and Republicans are saying that Obama can't catch up. The margin of error is gaping. Forget the polls for now, it's the voters we should worry about. As of now, state and local agencies are scurrying to get back to order for Americans in the affected areas to be able to vote. For the most part, they are saying most everyone will be able to vote. How they vote is uncertain because electronic voting machines require a reliable power source, and many cities are unsure when they will have power again.

Posted by MichaelMears at October 30, 2012 4:13 PM
Comment #355981

The most recent polls support what I’ve said all along: Obama will win, and it will not be close. The composites show Obama ahead in every swing state except NC.

A really interesting problem arises with the power outages caused by Sandy. May states rely on electronic voting machines, and there’s a lot more involved than just a presidential election. We’re in uncharted territory. Hopefully the power will be restored in time… I’m on the West Coast, and from faraway it sure seems like a week would be enough to restore it, but that might look very different to people in NJ & NYC.

Posted by: phx8 at October 31, 2012 4:57 PM
Comment #356006

The question of how will they vote ought to be one of the simplest to solve. Paper ballots with town and address of the voter added to it. So what if it takes a couple of days to count the ballots. It is the simplest solution in a difficult time for displaced people. By adding town and address it will validate the vote against the roll of the town that the clerks can match it to. This will help prevent fraud - yes it does step on the - OMG someone might guess who voted for whom!!!! - but what matters is the person gets to VOTE and it would be legal. I wish folks would stop making things more difficult than they need to be. Last I knew a pen or marker doesn’t need power to make it work to mark a ballot. We still do that here in Maine and even put it in a wooden box - oh horrors - a box!!! how un-techie like.

Posted by: Kathryn at October 31, 2012 6:09 PM
Comment #356011

We have vote by mail in Oregon, so I have to say, I don’t understand how so many states can put up with such foolish systems. Unfortunately, there are very partisan Secretary of States in OH, VA, and FL, and those partisans see it in the interest of Republicans to prevent large numbers of people from voting.

Posted by: phx8 at October 31, 2012 6:16 PM
Comment #356018

phx8, same for us here in California, with a significantly higher population. In fact, it has been about 3 weeks since I mailed my ballot back in…didn’t want to take a chance of missing out having vote counted on this one!

Posted by: jane doe at October 31, 2012 6:46 PM
Comment #356026

Phx8: “The most recent polls support what I’ve said all along: Obama will win, and it will not be close. The composites show Obama ahead in every swing state except NC.”

Conservatives are still hoping the polls are dramatically oversampling Democrats. I saw a projection by a conservative blogger today predicting similarly to those on Watchblog that Romney will win OH, WI, maybe even PA, a 300+ victory.

My response to that? Maybe. Maybe every single poll is wrong by 5%. It’s possible I guess. Seems unlikely. Obama has pulled even in the national polls today.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at October 31, 2012 8:52 PM
Comment #356029

Do the polls take into account the voter suppression tactics of Free the vote and other conservative groups? Do the polls take into account the voter suppression laws signed into law by conservatives since the last election? Do the polls take into account the lack of a paper trail in electronic voting booths? Do the polls take into account the lack of voting booths in many cities that cause people to not be able to vote?

I would say the dems need a good 10% or more lead to even things out. but that is just my opinion.

Posted by: j2t2 at October 31, 2012 9:19 PM
Comment #356030

I’m not worried about electronic fraud. Anonymous- a group of hackers- issued a public warning to Karl Rove that they were watching his servers. I believe them. A person would have to be an absolute fool to mess with Anonymous.

Posted by: phx8 at October 31, 2012 10:20 PM
Comment #356097
A person would have to be an absolute fool to mess with Anonymous.

phx8, Desperation breeds foolishness. Greed breeds foolishness.

Just saying-

Posted by: j2t2 at November 1, 2012 9:52 AM
Comment #356098

Just remember that a poll is only as good as the question it asks and that it can easily be swayed by how the question is worded.

The ones with the deciding vote is the electorial college not the people anymore. It doesn’t matter who wins the popular vote if members of Congress don’t head their constituents majority whether it agrees with the party doctrine or not.

Another couple of voting cycles and you may as well scrap the whole system because the peoples input will not matter at all. There is no more truth in reporting or even a glimmer of it in politics.

Posted by: Kathryn at November 1, 2012 10:16 AM
Comment #356120

In addition to NC, which might go to Romney, one other state remains too close to call: FL. In terms of the electoral college, that means Obama 303 votes, Romney 206. I’ll predict FL finally goes to Obama in a very close contest, making it 332 - 206.

The question about the popular vote will receive more attention after the election, especially if Romney wins it- doubtful, but possible. In a way, the electoral college is designed to do exactly what it probably will do this election- lessen the undue influence of one state or region on the election. In the case of this 2012 election, the electoral college may turn out to prevent large numbers of people in the south from determining the country’s fate.

Posted by: phx8 at November 1, 2012 3:26 PM
Comment #356121
A really interesting problem arises with the power outages caused by Sandy. May states rely on electronic voting machines, and there’s a lot more involved than just a presidential election. We’re in uncharted territory. Hopefully the power will be restored in time… I’m on the West Coast, and from faraway it sure seems like a week would be enough to restore it, but that might look very different to people in NJ & NYC.

It’s going to take a lot longer than a week. Did you see the video of that enormous Con Edison transformer exploding? It’s why the whole end of Manhattan is still in darkness — I get the sense that that’s going to take a while to fix. And in NY and NJ, there are power lines and transformers downed/exploded everywhere else too. I’ve been reading that they do have a lot of people working on it though. In fact a whole army of linemen have been brought in from other states have been brought in to help restore power. But the massive scale of the destruction makes it very doubtful that everything will be totally back to normal by election day.

I think in many areas they are going to have to use paper ballots and old fashioned ballot boxes and hand counting to record the vote. No doubt the turn out for voting will be affected, too.

Posted by: Adrienne at November 1, 2012 3:33 PM
Comment #356128

So far, the local and state and, yes, even the federal governments seem to have their acts together in dealing with the effects of the hurricane. Hopefully this will apply to the voting, too. I went to HS in NJ- so did my wife- and I spent a lot of time at the Jersey Shore. People in OR laugh at me cause I still call the OR beaches ‘the shore.’ I’m just appalled to see the degree of destruction along the NJ coast.

I’m not sure it will help Obama in the election, but it is satisfying to see him do his job so well. That applies to both Democrats & Republicans in that part of the country, including Christie and Bloomberg. This is what effective government looks like when it acts ahead of the crisis and is well coordinated from the top down. Quite a contrast with Katrina and that administration and that philosophy of government.

Posted by: phx8 at November 1, 2012 4:05 PM
Comment #356153

The storm will wash out some Obama votes. Think about where it landed. It landed mostly on blue states and landed specifically on those places in the blue states where the Democrats are concentrated. The polls will be open, but Democrats, usually less reliable voters anyway, will be encouraged to stay home and many could not vote early.

Generally, this has little effect on the electoral college. States like NY or NJ go so heavily Democratic that those missing votes will not swing the election.

There are two exceptions, however. In Virginia, the worst storm damage is along the coast, the only countries outside NOVA that went heavily Obama. The storm will help Romney carry Virginia. Pennsylvania is more interesting. The places that got dumped on were in the Philadelphia area. This is the Democratic strongholds. I think that this might put Pennsylvania in play.

So the storm hit mostly blue states and mostly the bluest areas within the blue states.

The other permutation is that Obama still wins the electoral college, but he loses enough votes to give Romney a majority in the popular vote. This has not happened since Hayes v Tilden. (Gore, BTW, won a plurality but neither candidate won more than 50% of the vote in 2000.)

This would be a very bad outcome for our country. The 2000 result poisoned the minds of many Democrats. A similar result would do the same to Republicans.

IMO the best result is a solid Romney victory. He is already moving toward the center and will continue as president. This will lose him so right wing enthusiasm, but pull in more centrists, so that his second term will be even more centrist. Obama, in contrast, will move left in a second term, since he will be a base president, creating even more division. If he wins with a minority of the vote, he will be even worse.

Posted by: C&J at November 1, 2012 7:08 PM
Comment #356167

From what I see on tv & read in the paper & online, VA should be recovered in time for election day. NJ and NYC will probably not. It’s really, really bad there, and in the next few days, it will probably get even worse. There are an awful lot of people stranded in their homes without power, heat, water, or food, and you know darn well a lot of them did not make adequate preparations… which means a lot of very negative stories will come out of NH & NYC. It’s inevitable. I doubt it will affect the electoral outcome, but it could very well depress the popular vote in those heavily Democratic areas.

I don’t think PA will be in play.

If Obama wins a close election, it will not make any difference. He won by a lot in 2008, and we all saw what happened. Why would close be any different? The GOP will obstruct and refuse to act, or push efforts to default on the debt. Obama would be able to govern more effectively with a cooperative Congress, but it only takes 40 GOP Senators to stop everything, so I just don’t think the election will make that much of a difference… except for the Supreme Court.

Posted by: phx8 at November 1, 2012 9:12 PM
Comment #356171


“and you know darn well a lot of them did not make adequate preparations…” Yes. Doesn’t this bother you?

Do you recall the old joke about the preacher and the flood?

The town is flooding. A preacher is at his church when the first boat shows up.

“Get in,” the guy in boat says. To which the preacher replies, “No. I trust God. He will help me.”

A second boat shows up an hour later. The water is up to the first floor. “Get in,” the guy in boat says, “the water is still rising.” To which the preacher replies, “No. I trust God. He will help me.”

A third boat shows up an hour later. The water is up to the roof. “Get in,” the guy in boat says, “This is the last boat.” To which the preacher replies, “No. I trust God. He will help me.”

Finally the water is almost to the steeple. The preacher calls out to the lord, “Lord, I trusted you. Why have you abandoned me?” The Lord replies, “I sent three boats; why the heck didn’t you get in?”

Re the election - Obama did not win by that much. No president has won by a smaller margin the second time around since … I don’t think ever. It is not a good sign.

I am worried that he will win with LESS than half the vote and/or Romney might win a majority (i.e. more than 50%) of the popular vote. This has not happened since Hayes v Tilden. This was not good then and won’t be good now.

IMO we have three possibilities in order of preference.

1. Romney wins with clear electoral and vote.
2. Obama wins with clear electoral and vote.
3. Tie in electoral vote; Romney wins popular vote. Romney is president (elected by House); Biden VP (elected by Senate)
4. Obama wins electoral vote; Romney wins popular vote

The first two are okay. The last two are terrible. #3 is very low probability. #4 is unlikely but could happen.

Posted by: C&J at November 1, 2012 9:47 PM
Comment #356187

Does it bother me that people fail to make preparations, or evacuate when told to do so? Not really. I could be mean and say that’s just Darwin at work. But sometimes people don’t get the word, or they’re too poor to own a car and they have no way of getting away, or they’re just too afraid of leaving their home and neighborhood. There’s an entire underground city of people living in the subway tunnels. I have no idea what happened to them. And then, there are people who are physically and mentally handicapped. In any case, I don’t think it’s appropriate to turn our backs on those people. They need help.

The problem is huge and it is a terribly difficult ‘October Surprise’ for Obama. On the one hand, it commands the news cycle and gives Obama an opportunity to be presidential and bipartisn; on the other hand, it commands the news cycle, forces Obama to be nonpartisan in the middle of a hotly contested election, and for every moment that’s good and right, there will be another of Americans suffering due to lack of food, water, power, and so on.

So I surely wish this had not happened, not just from the perspective of all the suffering it has caused, but also from a political perspective.

As for the options you outlined… #3 is extremely unlikely. Ordinarily I’d say #4 is unlikely too, but with the bad situation in NJ & NYC, it has suddenly become more plausible. There’s nothing to be done to help it. This is the worst kind of October Surprise, and politically speaking, everyone is stuck with the hand they’ve been dealt, like it or not.

Posted by: phx8 at November 1, 2012 11:14 PM
Comment #356190


Darwin certainly applies to the people you are talking about.

It is hard to know how much we should do. Sometimes it doesn’t do any good. And there is the moral problem. Should people risk their own safety for those who make such poor decisions?

Posted by: C&J at November 2, 2012 12:27 AM
Comment #356196


The problem is huge and it is a terribly difficult ‘October Surprise’ for Obama. On the one hand, it commands the news cycle and gives Obama an opportunity to be presidential and bipartisn; on the other hand, it commands the news cycle, forces Obama to be nonpartisan in the middle of a hotly contested election

You’re overlooking something kind of important here though. This hurricane was unprecedented in several ways, and had climate change stamped all over it. More and more people are aware of this, and are growing increasingly concerned. They want leadership willing to address the enormity of the problem, not leadership that denies science and like Mitt Romney promises to eliminate FEMA and says: “I’m not in this race to slow the rise of the oceans and heal the planet.”
Bloomberg endorsed Obama for president today, and the reason he gave was that he wants leadership willing acknowledge global climate change because an unprecedented storm just totally trashed his city and killed his people.
I think it would be silly to think that people in NY and NJ and huge numbers of folks all along the eastern seaboard aren’t also thinking about this subject after the monstrous enormity of that hurricane, aren’t wondering if it’s going to keep impacting their own lives, and aren’t considering their futures as they enter the voting booth.

Isn’t telling flood jokes pretty cruel and tasteless at the moment? They are still recovering dead people floating in their homes, for pity’s sake.

Darwin certainly applies to the people you are talking about.

It is hard to know how much we should do. Sometimes it doesn’t do any good. And there is the moral problem. Should people risk their own safety for those who make such poor decisions?

Those who ascribe to Social Darwinism are morally and ethically unevolved. And, they often don’t know the first damn thing about what it means to be poor.

Posted by: Adrienne at November 2, 2012 2:41 AM
Comment #356202


Phx8 brought up the Darwinism. Give him a hard time re.

Re jokes - what can I tell you? In all my own life’s problems, I joke and tell stories. The story is instructive, however. We do need to encourage people to take the proper actions and those who wait for others in such situations are in serious trouble.

Re being poor. I was very poor for almost ten years as a adult and my family was what you liberals would call poor. Both my parents were HS dropouts; we never owned a car, never left town on vacations; I didn’t taste a steak until I was 17 and got a fancy meal paid for by my swim coach and I wore my shoes until they had holes in the bottom. Then I put cardboard in them and wore them some more. But we didn’t think we were poor and we never had poor attitudes, so you are right that I may not understand what it is to be poor in the way you are talking about it.

My observation is that some people are poor while others just don’t have much money. The one group is poor forever, while the other just passes through poverty.

I don’t believe in social Darwinism, BTW. I believe the best way to help “the poor” is to help change attitudes that make poverty persist.

Posted by: C&J at November 2, 2012 6:34 AM
Comment #356230

I get tired of you talking about your personal history like it’s the only one that matters. I also get incredibly tired of the way too many conservatives discuss the poor during crises like Hurricane Sandy or as they did during Katrina. You seem to love getting up on your high horses to talk about the “poor decisions” of poor people — as if you think they deserve whatever horrible fate awaits them. It’s an attitude that reeks of Social Darwinist horsesh*t whether you willingly ascribe to that, or not.

Poor people dying and suffering during these kind of events is no less a human tragedy because the people dying and suffering happen to be poor. Yet, you conservatives are always trying to act as though poverty is a moral failing. Always looking down your snooty noses at the poor and claiming they are personally responsible for their failure to flee or prepare adequately, while at the same time refusing to acknowledge a society and an economic system that has continually failed those people and continually transfers all the wealth and all the resources to the top.

Contrary to your views, those who could easily afford hotel rooms in safer, drier areas, or who can drive quickly away in these situations, or who don’t have to worry that they might lose their jobs if they leave during such crises are not proving themselves to be people who are more virtuous, intelligent or good. All it proves is that some people in this nation have the economic ability and resources when a crisis hits, and some do not. Refusing to acknowledge these facts as people are right now lying dead and huge numbers are suffering is something I consider despicable.

The Power Outage Didn’t Divide NYC: Income Inequality Did

Posted by: Adrienne at November 2, 2012 1:19 PM
Comment #356240


The reason I mention my personal history is that you keep on implying that I don’t know what it is to be poor. If we can both stipulate that I know what it is like to be poor, we can disagree about what should be done about poverty. I assume you know what it is like to be poor, although you have never given any indication as to why.

I want the poor NOT to suffer. I don’t want anybody to suffer. We discussing the best way to prevent this. You know that when people are not tasked with responsibility, they tend not to take it.

We are faced with a dilemma. If we give the main responsibility to government, we may help some people who otherwise would be in trouble. If we give main responsibly to NGOs, firms and individuals, we may also help some people who otherwise would be in trouble. They may be different individuals, but we have to weigh the likely outcomes.

Parents face this problem with their kids. How much responsibly should they devolve. Parents who do too much for their kids end up with kids who do too little for themselves.

I think government has responsibility to set up or cause to be set up shelters and relief. As we are seeing now, government, this time the Obama folks, are failing to do this. I do not blame Obama’s incompetence. This is how it works. It is not only the poor who suffer, BTW.

So this time it is run by Obama. So according to you, it should be working well. Its not. What is your solution?

Posted by: C&J at November 2, 2012 2:49 PM
Comment #356256
So this time it is run by Obama.

Yes, thank goodness.

So according to you, it should be working well. Its not.

It’s a disaster situation, and it happened in an intensely populated area. They’ve moved very quickly and the first responders are working incredibly hard, but naturally it is going to take time to reach every area that needs to be helped and get the power back on.
But you know, you have some colossal nerve criticizing Obama and FEMA and the emergency response apparatus in NY and NJ — most especially after defending Bush and Brownie during Katrina. This president and the first responders have already handled this crisis far, far better than the pathetic inaction and gross incompetence we all saw displayed during Katrina.

What is your solution?

Me personally? To give generously, and encourage others to do the same. A good start is if we all donate some cash and go give some of our blood to the Red Cross. I’ve already done both. And, I’d want to encourage anyone who lives in the region who has community organizing, medical, or carpentry skills, and who can afford to go help out, to please consider doing so. Americans always have, and still need to pull together in such crises.

Posted by: Adrienne at November 2, 2012 5:08 PM
Comment #356272


Re storms - I generally do not expect government workers to be able to quickly solve all the problems. Watching the news today, I see lots of people suffering and complaining about lack of help. The response has been pretty much as I would expect. If this was Bush, you would be complaining that it was inadequate. Since it is Obama many of my right leaning colleagues are complaining.

You may want to try a simple experiment. Watch MSNBC w/o sound, so you won’t hear any spin or commentary. Do the same with Fox. Just watch the footage. Fox has mile long gas lines, flooded buildings and lots of desperate people. MSNBC, not so much. You would have found the opposite a four years ago.

Re your solution - I was actually asking for your solution to poverty, not the storm, but your solution to the storm is very good, supporting people working in voluntary association. I support this.

Posted by: C&J at November 2, 2012 6:24 PM
Comment #356308

While the popular vote is statistically tied, Obama seems to have the lead in the electoral college. The “experts” are saying there is about a 70% chance of Obama winning…..but then again, it’s not guaranteed. Personally, I am supporting Romney.

Posted by: Jacquelyn F. Gerlach at November 2, 2012 10:58 PM
Comment #356324

“Storm of the century coming, we order you to evacuate.” I see all those who didn’t heed the warning really letting disaster relief people have it over no food/no water/no clothes/I’m cold issues. How much easier would it be to service their personal needs if they weren’t isolated by debris strewn, flooded roadways? How many gas pumps are shut down inland where all were encouraged to go? I feel terrible for them, but…….

Looks like everyone wants to repeat poll figures that support their guy. Seems like you can find one showing either candidate leading if you search hard enough. Who you going to believe? I think Romney wins because I want him to win. I am willing him to win. You libs are doing the same with Obama. Pure speculation at this point. Lots of time and energy wasted here trying to convince others we are right. No minds are going to be changed. There are going to be lots of miserable people with their head in their hands Wednesday morning.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 3, 2012 8:01 AM
Comment #356407

We will vote however we can. Obama will win because of his comment that we should vote for revenge! I’m from Ohio and I heard him speak those words. Romney thinks that the comment will turn away swing voters, but he is clueless. Most people don’t want an extreme optimist jumping into the White House! We are pissed! We are pissed at the political climate and their lack of care for our future, i.e. jobs and climate change. I would sacrifice my life to give this country another chance at being great. There are so many poor and destitute! So many afraid for their future! I want revenge and so does Obama. He’s going to get re-elected because no one wants to risk throwing in a new guy who thinks he can easily solve all the problems. Obama is done playing nice and I like it. He needs to become “The Rock Obama”

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