July 11, 2010
It's Only Getting Worse!
It is only getting worse. This was the message delivered this morning to the National Governor’s Association (NGA) by Erskine Bowles (D), and Alan Simpson (R), co-chairs of the President’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, a bi-partisan committee to address the growing debt crisis in the making. Their report to the NGA indicates every year reform is delayed, the cost to fix the problems increases dramatically, and the number of Americans who will suffer the consequences of delays rises significantly. There is a time limit, beyond which, reforms will become meaningless.
There is a limit on how long solutions can be avoided. Beyond that point, there are no preventive solutions possible, both Mr. Erskine and SImpson indicated. That point arrives when public debt equals or exceeds 90% of GDP. They report our current ratio is 63% and climbing faster with each passing year. After 90%, Alan Simpson said, some very nasty things begin to occur.The Pig Is Dead, said Alan Simpson, former Senator from Wyoming, referring to the long standing tradition of bringing home the bacon by Congressional representatives, and the fact that this practice is no longer possible without destroying the nation's economy upon which the States and districts depend. Simpson cited the number of resignations in Congress by appropriators who are now aware that there is no more money for budgeting pork projects for their home districts, which, eliminates much of their incumbent advantage in coming elections.
Erskine Bowles, formerly President Bill Clinton's Deputy Chief of Staff, reported that Medicare/Medicaid must be restructured to provide recipients with "Chevrolet's" instead of "Cadillacs". As controversial as that notion is, he said, failure to reform leaves no future for our economy. Mr. Simpson reported that Social Security will witness an overnight 20% cut in benefits around 2030 if the growth of benefits are not altered or premiums raised.
Politics is what stands in the way of America rescuing her future, Alan Simpson implied, citing 7 fellow Republicans, co-sponsors of a bill to establish a Congressional commission on fiscal responsibility and debt measures, who voted against their own bill because, Simpson said: "they wanted to stick it to the President." This failed legislative bill defeated in February by numbers of Democrats and Republicans resulted in Pres. Obama establishing the current bi-partisan Commission outside the auspices of the U.S. Congress.
Republican Sens. Sam Brownback (Kan.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), John Ensign (Nev.), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas), James Inhofe (Okla.) and John McCain (Ariz.) all voted against the bill, despite being co-sponsors. A seventh GOP senator, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, had co-sponsored the bill and planned to support it but was forced to miss the vote for family reasons.
The 23 Democrats who opposed the Congressional commission included Daniel Akaka (Hawaii), Max Baucus (Mont.), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Roland Burris (Ill.), Robert Byrd (W.Va.), Maria Cantwell (Wash.), Ben Cardin (Md.), Bob Casey Jr (Pa.), Chris Dodd (Conn.), Tom Harkin (Iowa), Daniel Inouye (Hawaii), Paul Kirk (Mass.), Frank Lautenberg (N.J.), Jeff Merkley (Ore.), Barbara Mikulski (Md.), Patty Murray (Wash.), Jack Reed (R.I.), Jay Rockefeller (W.Va.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Arlen Specter (Pa.), Debbie Stabenow (Mich.) , Tom Udall (N.M.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.).
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) wasn't a co-sponsor but was a one-time supporter of the idea who changed his mind. On CNN's "State of the Union" following the vote in February, he said he did so because the commission wasn't focused enough on reducing spending. Rather odd since the Commission had not even been formed to formulate solutions, yet.
This Executive Commission on which Mr. Bowles and Simpson sit, does not have the clout to pass legislation that a Congressional debt and deficits resolution commission might have had.
Gov. Gregoire (D) of Washington, asked of Simpson and Bowles, what can the National Governor's Association do to help them succeed since the fate of the State's follows the fate of the nation. Alan Simpson responded, while his Committee can establish the facts and even produce legislative language for a solution, his committee has neither the staff nor budget to rally public support for remedial action. The Governor's he said, have the resources and loud speaker to take this message to the people, presumably to unite the people in demand that their representatives put the politics aside in order to save this nation's future for generations to come.
The overall message Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles had for the National Governor's Association, as I heard them, was simple. Every day we fail to install solutions, the situation only becomes more dire, difficult, and costly to address. There is a day, in the not so distant future, when public debt equals 90% of our Gross Domestic Product, when solutions will no longer be possible, and the unforgivably horrible consequences of a failed economy will have to be lived through by several generations, or more, of American families.
Reader's can view this closing session of the NGA on C-Span's web site. Photo courtesy C-Span.
(This article was previously published at Vote Out Incumbents Democracy. All rights reserved.)
The NGA, in David’s last para stated “There is a day, in the not so distant future, when public debt equals 90% of our Gross Domestic Product, when solutions will no longer be possible, and the unforgivably horrible consequences of a failed economy will have to be lived through by several generations, or more, of American families.”
I beg to differ bigtime. The day in question began the day Ronald Regan signed on to globalization, the new world order, the era of ‘greed is good’. We can either keep going down the path of ‘free trade’ and self-destruction or we can ‘find a better way’.
We must first remove the money influence - - -
Otherwise - - -
Roy, the day in question was when our debt = 90% of GDP.
Obviously, since our economy has fared well for Americans since Reagan through to the end of the Bush Jr. terms, that day referenced has not heretofore occurred. Our current public debt is a bit over 60% of our GDP. We won’t hit 90% for a couple years yet.
Since, I never indicated when we began down a path toward economic demise, I fail to see how your disagreement makes any sense in light of what the article had to say. One can trace connections for current events all the way back to Adam and Eve, if one chooses. Doing so does not change our current or future course. And that is the task at hand.
Globalization, by the way, began the day the Colonialists sent Ben Franklin to France to petition for aid and military support of the Revolutionary War. France’s King did not want to be left out of the trading pie with the New World. That is when our participation in globalization began as an independent nation. Some might argue it actually dates back to the formation of the Dutch West India Company in 1621 specifically to conduct trade in the Americas and with the colonialists.
Posted by: David R. Remer at July 11, 2010 04:24 PMThat 63% ratio doesn’t sound right.
Even using the federal government’s GDP numbers, GDP is $14.5 Trillion.
The current federal debt is $13.23 Trillion.
$13.23 Trillion of debt(as of 11-JUL-2010) / $14.63 Trillion of GDP(as of JUNE-2010) = 90.4% of debt-to-GDP.
So people will point to Japan and say their national debt is 200% of GDP.
However, the majority of Japan’s debt is not owed to numerous other nations around the planet; they own it.
And Japan is not doing all that well either, and they are also playing Roulette with massive debt.
But it’s really worse than that, because the government’s economic statistics are suspicious.
GDP annual growth is really more like -1.8% instead of +2.1% .
GDP is also not likely really $14.63 Trillion, since the growth rate is not really +2.1% .
Inflation is really more like 9.1% instead of 2.4% .
Unemployment is really more like 21.5% instead of 9.5% .
The Money Supply growth rate is really several percentage points lower (i.e. negative).
The only statistic that the government can’t easily lie about is the U.S. dollar, despite many attempts to do just that, and the Main Stream Media’s attempts to tell us that the U.s. Dollar is getting stronger.
Does this 10 year decline of the U.S. Dollar look like the U.S. Dollar is getting stronger?
And don’t forget that those other currencies have significant inflation too.
Also, foreclosures and bankruptcies are at record-high levels.
The $57 Trillion Nation-wide debt is 4 times larger today than it was in year 1956.
If we can’t get reliable economic statistics, we can’t know what’s really going on, or how to plan for the future, or how to avoid problems if we can’t see them coming.
It also seems very unlikely that Congress will act in time to make the tough decisions required to avoid an economic melt-down caused by massive federal debt, borrowing, waste, and corruption.
We’re approaching the point where few (if any) solutions will matter, and we’ll simply have to suffer the painful consequences.
It is also increasingly difficult to have any sympathy for the majority of voters who are culpable too, because there is no mystery whatsoever why so many things continue to deteriorate when the majority of voters continue to reward failure, and continue to reward FOR-SALE, incompetent, and corrupt incumbent politicians with 90% re-election rates.
At any rate, the majority of voters have the government that they elect, and re-elect, and re-elect, … , at least perhaps, until the consequences of repeatedly rewarding failure, and repeatedly rewarding FOR-SALE, incompetent, and corrupt incumbent politicians with 90% re-election rates finally becomes too painful?
Posted by: d.a.n at July 11, 2010 05:02 PMDebt to GDP:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-04/u-s-s-13-trillion-debt-poised-to-overtake-weigh-down-gdp-chart-of-day.html
The only way the federal debt is only 63% of GDP is if you count the I.O.U.s in the Social Security and Medicare trusts.
And that’s not wise, because those are non-negotiable/non-marketable debts, and because more new money will most likely be created out of thin air to cover those debts.
More new money means more inflation.
That’s a pyramid scheme, and will go the way of all pyramid schemes.
No nation has ever printed (new money), borrowed, and spent their way to prosperity. If that were possible, Greece might be the richest nation in the world.
At any rate, the majority of voters have the government that they elect, and re-elect, and re-elect, … , at least perhaps, until the consequences of repeatedly rewarding failure, and repeatedly rewarding FOR-SALE, incompetent, and corrupt incumbent politicians with 90% re-election rates finally becomes too painful?
We need to fix Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid; stop the pork to Congressional districts.
Not one mention of corporations, the corpocracy, or the huge amounts of corporate pork that has added to our deficits.
“Obviously since our economy has fared well for Americans since Reagan through the end of the Bush Jr. terms”
Spoken as if by an investor. Real wages since Reagan have declined and buying power of the people decreased as Reaganomics oversaw a huge redistribution of wealth from the working class to the investor class.
The college educated middle class investors did fairly well. Many of the blue collar middle class investors invested in the closing of their factories and the loss of their jobs and their 401K’s.
Roy is right on as far as I am concerned. The facts are that Americans sold out Americans with Globalization. It could have been done differently but, not more profitably.
Posted by: jlw at July 11, 2010 06:19 PMThanks for the numbers d.a.n. Numbers do a good job of telling the REAL story. But, I suspect that those who believe the gov’t saying things are ‘turning around’ will continue to believe so, and those who believe we are in dire straits will continue to hold that view.
Here is a little more tautology in words. Pat Choate, author of ‘Cornered’ wrote “While the great economic conflict of the twentieth century was Capitalism vs Marxism, the battle in the twenty-first century will be the same vs market capitalism. And, market capitalism is already losing badly. No private corporation can compete for long against the state-owned and state-operated enterprises of nations such as China or the state-backed corporations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, or Germany. - - -
Over the past three decades US corporate leaders responded to this emerging form of competition by monopolizing entire industries and outsourcing production and jobs to places where labor, environmental, and other regulatory costs are lower and profits are higher. In the process, they stripped away much of America’s industrial base, including industries vital to national security.”
He writes that “Wall street became a casino that gambled away America’s wealth.” I particularly like this statement: “ market absolutists held the zealous convictions that markets are self-regulating, that gains from industrial outsourcing exceed the costs, federal budget deficits are irrelevant, and mounting trade deficits are immaterial.”
I agree with Pat, and I think the consumer has been played as a fool. And, the world sits idly by waiting for the US consumer to ‘spend’ again. Don’t think so, as the consumer has seen the weaker of us lose their homes and autos while many more have watched their pensions and retirement funds weaken. This leaves the gov’t little choice but to keep printing money and squeeze the middle class for more, albeit against their will. Higher taxes, reduced entitlements, rationed healthcare and way lower wages are in our imminent future, IMO. I recommend a second degree and work three or four part time jobs.
Or
Support a 3rd party with a different political attitude and begin to right some wrongs that have accumulated over a couple of hundred years.
Otherwise, we have the Corpocracy we deserve.
I believe we are pretty close to the REAL truth in this thread jlw. Choate suggest that to save ourselves we should (gist) impose strict federal supervision on financials, replace the income and corporate tax with a VAT, flat or fair tax ((let’s do flat, plz)), balance the Federal budget ((a job for Article V Convention)), balance trade accounts in a way that is neither protectionists nor mercantilist, and deals with state capitalism wisely. There is more but lastely he notes that we should create a nation innovation strategy that will facilitate decades of creativity, inventment and the generation of employment opportunities in America.
All well and good. I agree with all that. BUT, it ain’t going to happen trying to push that stuff through the Corpocracy. It will take a - - - - you got it!
Otherwise - -
I just saw a most interesting interview on Cspan. Ralph Nader was acting as host for an interview with Judge Napolitano of FOX news. My first encounter with Ralph was back in the 80’s and he impressed me enough to vote for him in some of his Presidential bids. But, I had no idea how well he knows our history and how smart his mind is. And, I have seen the Judge on FOX a few times and have been trying to catch his show which I think airs on Saturday’s on FOX.
Well, when it comes to the Constitution and history the Judge has it down. And, Ralph knows where the skeletons are buried and knew the right questions to ask. I mean it was exciting hearing their give and take.
They discussed some of the issues covered in Napolitano’s book, “Lies The Government Tells You”. I just caught part of the interview but I recall they discussed how badly Washington treated his slaves (cover your ears Glen Beck). Said he had teeth pulled from a slave which were used to make teeth for him. Had their toes cut off so they couldn’t run away. That when slavery ended, owners were given six months to somehow rotate them out. George and Mary owned farms in Va. and perhaps Penn. and he and Mary worked out a deal where they would rotate their slaves between the two farms so they could hang on to them to the very last minute.
I believe Napolitano said Lincoln was the more tyrrant President, abused the Constitution more than any President. He was less interested in slavery and more interested in keeping the Union together as the Southern states had most of the Ports from which tariffs flowed to run the Federal government.
Nader ticked off about 20 questions as to the constitutionality of each and in nearly every instance Napolitano agreed they were not. Then noted that this is what our kids are learning school. Said the Corporate Personhood thing in 1886 was the most bizzare case he has encountered. Said his postion on FOX was to give opinion, not news, and his job was to muckrake, stir debate, probe, etc.
I saw the book, looked to be about 200 pages. I can do that.
Posted by: Roy Ellis at July 11, 2010 10:41 PM
Roy, agreements on the problems are not the sticking points. The solutions are. Thus it is with Napolitano and Nader. They can agree on many of the problems and have some agreement on solutions, but there are still major differences between left libertarian and right libertarian.
I am not going to hold my breath in anticipation of Fox News giving Ralph Nader his own show. Someone might accuse Fox News of being fair and balanced.
Posted by: jlw at July 12, 2010 08:30 AMI didn’t know Nader was a Libertarian. But, they seem such opposite personalities that I was suprised to find them together on Cspan. Maybe a Nader/Napolitano 3rd party ticket for 12??? little lol here.
But, whatever your politics, commie, socialist, lib, con, pop, should we not realize that none of us can get anything done until the money influence is removed? Which ideology surmises they can move the Corpocracy off the tracks so they can proceed? So, why not a centists/populist movement to do just that, and then get on with the ideology bit.
Otherwise - - -
Posted by: Roy Ellis at July 12, 2010 09:58 AMd.a.n. said: “Even using the federal government’s GDP numbers, GDP is $14.5 Trillion. The current federal debt is $13.23 Trillion.”
d.a.n, the Public Debt is over 9 trillion and under 10 trillion. There are three measures of debt. The public debt is the debt on the books held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, foreign governments, and other entities outside the U.S. Government, less Federal Financing Bank securities.
The National Debt is the Public Debt plus the current deficit (or surplus) of the allocated budget not yet spent or recorded as expended, (or projection of deficit or surplus in the absence of a budget) and this national debt is, as you report, 13.23 Trillion.
Long term debt including unfunded entitlement mandates can and will change overtime depending on economic and legislative conditions. The current long term debt is in excess of 56 trillion. But, that figure can and will change over time.
The Public Debt figure is quoted for consistency as a basis of comparison to past Debt to GDP ratios. (Only half of the budgeted Stimulus spending has actually been spent, so far, and the other half has not yet been spent and therefore not yet owed as debt, for example).
Posted by: David R. Remer at July 12, 2010 12:51 PMO.K! Fine! Call me a rat! I’m running across the mooring line onto safe ground. I’m feeling good about it, and I’m not looking back!
Splat! The captian’s round eviserates my brain from my scull and I fall lifeless into the septic waters below, the captain never to consider why I was making my exit.
Or not! I hear the shot ring out and reflex propels me back onto the deck and into my safety zone.
But, what of my goal?
I get up and I say, “Hey, Captain! What the frak was that all about?”
He met my eye. First was his moment of anger, vanishing as quick as it appeared. Next, the thin curl of his lip, the gaining of another comfortable posture, and the beginning of the reload process.
Well, I’m pretty sure I’m not going to run back across that mooring line, so I never left his gaze. I took a step forward and said, “Let’s make a deal. You give me my stuff I stored on your ship and you let me go. Otherwise, I’ll still be here eating your stuff and in the end we’ll both starve to death out in the ocean!”.
My captian was no dummy. He told his deck hand to gather up all of my belongings and he gave them to me, along with safe passage to solid ground. I waved a good-bye to him and his crew. He was no longer worried about me. I was no longer worried about him.
Posted by: Weary Willie at July 12, 2010 08:08 PMWeary Willie, your just making that stuff up. Remember the ole country song, ‘if we make it through December’? ‘Ever thangs gonna be all right come summer time’, etc.
If I had to bail I would, at first thought, like to go to the Andes or perhaps Malawi, but then I have second thoughts, of horrible Peruvian prisons and the Middle-east moving South in Africa, bombing soccer stadiums as they go. What’s a self-respecting rat to do?
IMO, we should rat up, support a new 3rd party with a different political attitude and take back our country, restore our “Republic”, our sovereignty and our Constitution.
O’Riley, I believe, noted that when it becomes clear to the Dem’s that Obama has bent his wick they will turn to Hillary for the next Presidential bid. First woman Pres. and all that. Political dynasties are so hard to untrack. But, need we be reminded, Clinton did balance the budget, or come close. But then, Clinton did choose to follow the Rockefeller game plan for ‘one world’ globalization, WTO/IMF/Wal-Mart and all of that which delivered us to where we are now, rat’s on a sinking ship. We just weigh more. As Cantor isn’t old enuff to run for President, I suspect McCain will carry the banner for the Rep’s, ensuring a win for Hillary.
Maybe Joel is right, we should just take a gun and shoot ourselves. Who wants to go first?
Otherwise - - -
Roy Ellis, I was thinking more on the lines of what I had stored up in Social Security. Give me a lump sum payout and let me worry about myself. I’ll be just fine.
WW, but, Social Security was never about one individual, but the whole of society, hence, the term, SOCIAL security, not individual security. They were a lot less selfish back when S.S. passed, with millions of people all feeling comradery and compassion for each other being in the same boat of the Great Depression, Dust Bowl, and massive uprooting migration.
There is something genetic about conservatives becoming conservative by sharing a diminished capacity to imagine, and see themselves, in the negative plight of others. It is quite a sociological phenomenon which occurs across all cultures in all nations, which is why the terms ‘conservative’ and ‘liberal’ are universally applicable and defining in all modern nations, absent an authoritarian government.
My point exactly, David.
It wasn’t about the individual. It was about the government inserting itself into the lives of individuals.
Why did FDR think he could regulate the price of chicken meat being sold on the local market? Was it because he was thinking the individual chicken farmer knew best, or was it because he thought the chicken farmer was a subject of his grand theme?
Why did Obama destroy thousands of used cars? Did he think used cars were detremental to the economy, or did he think he could control the used car market and promote his takeover of the auto industry?
You talk about a genetic capacity to imagine. Obama’s administration is not imagining anything. His administration is replicating the FDR administration. No imagination needed. Just use what worked 3 generations ago.
Huge Depression. More government. Roll me over, do it again, do it again, do it again.
Posted by: Weary Willie at July 15, 2010 03:56 PMI agree WW, a replay, page taken out of the old play book, etc.
The ‘financial reform’ bill is passed. Put together by Dodd and Bernake, the fellows who ‘didn’t know the crash was coming’.
Beck made note that Rep. Stupak and a small group held off on signing the HC bill until they had it on authority that there would be no federal funding for abortions in the Bill. Obama promised on video. Beck showed information where HHS is sending millions to Penn and one other state to fund elective abortions. Well, I can’t know if this is true or not, I can just be aware that the information is out there. I’d first have to find the 200 page HC bill that was passed into law and then read it. But then, Beck has those videos.
Posted by: Roy Ellis at July 15, 2010 06:21 PM
WW said: “It wasn’t about the individual. It was about the government inserting itself into the lives of individuals.”
Pure BULLSHIT! WW.
It was about rescuing our parents and grandparents from the grotesque indignities of abject poverty after their minds and bodies were spent from a lifetime of work. It was about the American people providing for their parents and grandparents in their old age. Not AT ALL about inserting government into the lives of individuals, but rescuing individuals who worked and couldn’t anymore due to old age.
If you go back to the legislative record of the SS bill, you will immediately recognize it was not about Government intrusion, but, about the people keeping their elderly from littering the streets and alleys in abject poverty without home or means to provide for their most basic necessities. The face of poverty was clear in the minds of the people in the 1930’s and that was without the aid of television.
We don’t have such images of our elderly littering our streets and alley’s in abject poverty today, PRECISELY because of the Social Security system. The objective today for anyone with a moral conscience and ounce of compassion for fellow human beings is to save the Soc. Sec. program by reforming its revenues and outlays in such a way as to avoid government deficits from the program and to avoid failure in meeting its primary objective, keeping the elderly out of destitute conditions.
This is entirely doable. It only requires one of several methods to be adopted by a consensus of our politicians in the Congress and signed by the President.
Medicare and Medicaid are an entirely different issue and solutions will of necessity have to be enormously more complex and threatening for many to accept and adopt. Health care for those who need it is ultimately however, an issue of costs. Driving down the costs is the answer to providing more people with needed health care. There is no reform possible of being adopted that will provide everyone with the health care they want. That is the first thing politicians must agree upon, if a solution to health care and Medicare/Medicaid deficits is to be found.
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