September 06, 2005
Failure on Every Level
The hurricane Katrina passed over New Orleans last week. In it’s wake it left a city destroyed and a populous in desperate ways. For too many days the remaining survivors of the hurricane that did not make it out to safety before were left without water, security and protection from the elements and those looking to harm others. The makeshift shelters were nowhere near adequate to protect them and help did not arrive in time to save the lives of some. But where was the failure? Who is to blame?
I think a deep inspection will show that on every level of support that these people depended upon they were let down. But it goes deeper than simply "Iraq" and "Racism", from before the hurricane to the planning of the aftermath all levels of our government are failing the citizens of New Orleans in disturbing ways.
The first reaction to the slow response of help caused many to cry "Iraq". However, looking at this rationally we see that this is an easy accusation based on faulty logic. Four times last year hurricanes hit Florida. During each one of those National Guardsmen were in Iraq serving, yet the response to each of them was responsive and adequate. Even with Katrina, response and help came quickly to those damaged in other areas of the Gulf Coast. It seems to be quite a stretch to me, therefore, to say that it was Iraq that prevented the quick response everyone expected.
So, what is different about the Florida hurricanes, the other Gulf Coast areas and New Orleans? Some are now saying racism. This seems like a horrible insertion of a personal political viewpoint into a tragedy that cost so many their lives. And I don't seem to remember Biloxi and Gulfport being white, middle-class suburbs either. They were hit possibly harder than New Orleans, at least during the initial destruction.
To find out let's go through the timeline of the hurricane. Starting, of course, with BEFORE the hurricane arrived. There are a couple of areas that need addressing before we move on.
Be Prepared
First, there has been wide reporting of the movement of a large portion of the FEMA funding from the levee system in New Orleans into the Homeland Security funding. Many people have latched onto this as the reason for the severity of the disaster. It is true that this movement of funds did take place. And it is also true that the breech of the levee system caused the severity of the disaster in New Orleans. However, we have discovered that the project was only to sturdy the system to handle a Category Three hurricane. As detailed in a recent factcheck.org article we can see that the shoring up of the system was to prevent the levees from being overtopped rather than cutting wide breaks in them.
Someone did actually run simulations on what would happen to the city if it did get hit by a Category Five hurricane. They renamed the simulation from Delaney to KYAGB because anyone who was here as that Category Five storm came across was gone. When it was determined that the hurricane was indeed a Category Five hurricane heading their way a city wide evacuation was ordered. Governor Kathleen Blanco stated in a press conference regarding the evacuation that she had received a personal appeal from President Bush to perform the mandatory evacuation.
But wasn't that enough? Shouldn't an evacuation have saved everyone, why were so many people stranded? Reportedly there was a July 24, 2005 article in the New Orleans Time Picayune (which is unfortunately not available online) that addresses this issue. The first line of the article states:
City, state and federal emergency officials are preparing to give the poorest of New Orleans' poor a historically blunt message: In the even tof a major hurrican, you're on your own.
It appears that DVDs were created and distributed to the citizens of New Orleans. The story goes on to state:
In scripted appearances being recorded now, officials such as Mayor Ray Nagin, local Red Cross Executive Director Kay Wilkins and City Council President Oliver Thomas drive home the word that the city does not have the resources to move out of harm's way an estimated 134,000 people without transportation
In 2004 National Geographic predicted the very scenario we saw before our eyes this past week. So did the New Orleans Times-Picayune in 2002. So the suggestion that no one predicted this event could occur are moot. It appears that many people did predict this to occur, people who were in a position to do something about it. People who should have done something to prepare better for it. Instead, they decided that it was better to cut DVDs to let the people know they were on their own.
So it appears that local, state and federal agencies all failed to prepare well enough to handle what they KNEW was a possibility. They knew that what happened last week was going to occur and decided that it was a better use of resources not to prepare well enough for it. Those lives and the horrors that those people went through wasn't worth it.
Take Action
Moving forward to the day of the disaster, why did it take so long to get those who could not leave the city out? Let's remember the day of the hurricane. Just before it hit the shore early Monday morning, the hurricane made an adjustment to the east and struck New Orleans with a glancing blow. It devastated the communities east of New Orleans in Louisiana and Mississippi. But everyone thought that New Orleans had 'dodged another bullet'. Monday night brought us people in the French Quarter, celebrating about how they had been saved from the full brunt of the storm. It wasn't until late Monday night and early Tuesday morning that the full awareness of the breaking of the levees started to become a story.
This became more fully realized throughout the day on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, it was clear that the doomsday scenario that had been thought about but never realized was playing itself out before our eyes. At this point the Mayor started asking, pleading for help. The very man who made it clear that the very people who needed assistance now were the people he told were on their own just weeks before. Asking for busses to get the people out, it was not thought of to grab the school busses that were sitting locked up and start the evacuation themselves. This was realized by someone on Thursday who broke into the lot and grabbed a bus himself to drive it to the Convention Center.
But the Mayor was not the only one who was having trouble leading an effective relief effort. The Governor of the state and FEMA were equally negligent here, IMO. Communication was not occurring. FEMA had no knowledge of people using the Convention Center as an area of safe haven. Why? I don't think we can expect the federal government to know every city as well as the mayors or governors of those areas do, but they should have a list somewhere with identified shelters detailed for them. But even if we lay the blame there, why wasn't the Mayor or Governor pointing out to the proper agencies where to direct the relief efforts?
Eventually it was readily apparent that the relief effort, if it could be called that, was going nowhere. President Bush stood before the nation and assured us that things were in place and moving forward, that relief was on its way. But that was Wednesday, on Thursday we were still seeing pictures on our screens of how this was just not the case. The Governor was not allowing the remaining National Guard to be controlled by the Military, keeping control herself. President Bush did not supersede these wishes at first. The Mayor was begging and pleading, through the media, that something be done. But were these pleas getting the proper people in the Governor's office? To the FEMA director? To the President? There is obviously a breakdown.
The Washington Post reports that a power struggle started between Governor Blanco and the administration.
Shortly before midnight Friday, the Bush administration sent her a proposed legal memorandum asking her to request a federal takeover of the evacuation of New Orleans, a source within the state's emergency operations center said Saturday.The administration sought unified control over all local police and state National Guard units reporting to the governor. Louisiana officials rejected the request after talks throughout the night, concerned that such a move would be comparable to a federal declaration of martial law. Some officials in the state suspected a political motive behind the request. "Quite frankly, if they'd been able to pull off taking it away from the locals, they then could have blamed everything on the locals," said the source, who does not have the authority to speak publicly.
On Friday it looks like something was finally happened, that order was being restored and relief on its way. But it was not until Saturday, after the military was put in charge of the relief efforts, now four full days since the disaster was fully realized on Tuesday, before relief was given to the thousands suffering at the Superdome and Convention Centers. Here, we have a singular success that we can point to. The Military appears to have done a wonderful and heroic job in getting relief into the city and the remaining people out. The sad truth, however, is that it was late for many people, as I think we will unfortunately find. Why did this not happen three days earlier? Why were these people not in place on Sunday afternoon, at the ready, to move in and do what they do very well?
It's sadly simple. The local authorities refused to deal appropriately with the possibility, the governor was either incompetent or disinterested in succeeding when the opportunity to harm a sitting republican president was at hand and played politics instead, and the president and FEMA director were slow to move in and do what was needed because of political considerations. Sound familiar? Sound like the reason we are STILL in Iraq doing what we should have completed a year ago? We have been picking our leaders based on the lesser of two evils and electability over substance for far too long. And this is the price that was paid, and will be paid again in the future, unless we start holding our political party's feet to the fire and demand BETTER than what we have been tolerating.
The Future
Now we are at a place where we have a city that is almost completely empty and will not be inhabitable for some time, perhaps months. It has been reported today that it could be 25 to 60 days for the water to be pumped out of the city. The citizens are dispersed throughout the country, trying to start the process of getting their lives back together.
And the plan for these people? Some are going to be moved into public housing in other cities, housing that is rarely safe for those who already live there. And then try to assimilate them into these new areas. Unfortunately, as we have seen time and time again from all aspects of government, the opportunities are being lost.
There is a great opportunity here to not only rebuild New Orleans' infrastructure, businesses and homes. We can also rebuild the community. By providing housing close to New Orleans for these people to reside in while the rebuilding process to occur, they can be first on the list of jobs being awarded in cleaning and rebuilding their own neighborhoods and city. They can be gainfully employed and work through literally putting their lives back together. The resulting sense of community spirit and pride that was most likely low will be at an all time high.
We could see a new New Orleans. A New Orleans that won't take its poor and elderly for granted in the future. A New Orleans that is strong in every area, not just the tourist section of town. We could see a shining example to all other communities what can be accomplished if everyone would start taking pride in their own neighborhoods and do something themselves to take control of the situation instead of looking for someone else to do the hard work.
It may never catch on, but I for one would like to see it given a try. We might all be surprised at the result.
Posted by Rhinehold at September 6, 2005 04:25 AMCute. I suppose the fact that the FEMA Director had no real qualifications for the job had no bearing on the disaster.
BTW. One of the reasons Blanco hesitated in giving absolute authority was because she was afraid FEMA would get it. The reports she got regarding FEMA were hardly encouraging.
Posted by: Aldous at September 6, 2005 04:56 AMRhinehold,
If you were Governor would you give up All of your State Rights and those of your citizens to the Federal Government? That my friend is going to be the stumbling block for President Bush and Co. whose politcal party says that they believe in States Right.
What needs to be done in the future is to take FEMA and all Emergency Services out of the hands of politicians and establish them under civilian control. The question at the time of a National Emergency is not which political party gets the Feather in their cap, but which SOB has the final word to make things happen.
Posted by: Henry Schlatman at September 6, 2005 05:07 AMShortly before midnight Friday, the Bush administration sent her a proposed legal memorandum asking her to request a federal takeover…On Friday it looks like something was finally happened, that order was being restored and relief on its way.
Huh. Interesting. So President Bush tried to take over right at the point where things finally looked brighter. I smell politics.
Rhinehold, you sound like you’re afraid people will blame President Bush (and rightly so), and forget about blaming everyone else. Don’t worry, there’s plenty of blame to go around.
There’ll be an investigation: they’ll find that the President was a victim of faulty intelligence and they won’t have the authority to look at how the President used it… Oh, that was the other thing.
But rest assured Rhinehold, the Bush-appointed investigators won’t find any fault with the way he handled the relief disaster.
In the process though, I hope they make some recommendations on how to improve communication between the different Homeland Security departments (isn’t that why we put ‘em all together under a single Director?), legal processes, and funding priorities.
FEMA is not a first responder
Don’t be so quick to pillory the federal response in New Orleans.
Immediate emergency management is primarily a local and state responsibility
As one who has received training by FEMA in emergency management and also training by the Department of Defense in consequence management, I believe that the federal response in New Orleans needs clarification.
The key to emergency management starts at the local level and expands to the state level. Emergency planning generally does not include any federal guarantees, as there can only be limited ones from the federal level for any local plan. FEMA provides free training, education, assistance and respond in case of an emergency, but the local and state officials run their own emergency management program.
Prior development of an emergency plan, addressing all foreseeable contingencies, is the absolute requirement of the local government —and then they share that plan with the state emergency managers to ensure that the state authorities can provide necessary assets not available at the local level. Additionally, good planning will include applicable elements of the federal government (those located in the local area). These processes are well established, but are contingent upon the personal drive of both hired and elected officials at the local level.
I’ve reviewed the New Orleans emergency management plan. Here is an important section in the first paragraph.
“We coordinate all city departments and allied state and federal agencies which respond to citywide disasters and emergencies through the development and constant updating of an integrated multi-hazard plan. All requests for federal disaster assistance and federal funding subsequent to disaster declarations are also made through this office. Our authority is defined by the Louisiana Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act of 1993, Chapter 6 Section 709, Paragraph B, ‘Each parish shall maintain a Disaster Agency which, except as otherwise provided under this act, has jurisdiction over and serves the entire parish.’ “
Check the plan — the “we” in this case is the office of the mayor, Ray Nagin who was very quick and vocal about blaming everyone but his own office. A telling picture, at left, taken by The Associated Press on Sept. 1 and widely circulated on the Internet shows a school bus park, apparently filled to capacity with buses, under about four feet of water. If a mandatory evacuation was ordered, why weren’t all the taxpayer-purchased buses used in the effort?
Who could have predicted the anarchy resulting as a consequence? The individuals who devolved into lawless animals embarrass the entirety of America. (I worked in a U.S. Embassy overseas for a couple years and I can imagine what foreign diplomats are thinking.) What societal factors would ever lead people to believe that this behavior was even remotely acceptable?
The folks in New Orleans who are perpetrating the violence and lawlessness are not that way because of low income or of race, but because they personally do not have any honor or commitment to higher ideals. The civil-rights leaders should be ashamed at playing the blame game.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05249/566101.stm
Posted by: Commonsenseaintsocommon at September 6, 2005 09:14 AMThe response to the other four hurricanes has not been adequate. There are still people living in trailers a year after this disaster. The fortunate thing about those storms was that the destruction wasn’t wholesale across a whole region.
Iraq enters into it legitimately, but only because of the tax cuts. The tax cuts during an expensive war (only this administration has been so foolish in our history) forced spending cuts elsewhere. The decision to take them out of disaster preparedness funds, to shelve projects to strengthen the levees (building up the height would have built up the thickness) at the very least speaks to a lack of foresight.
As for the troops, I think that’s something that will have to be examined over time. It might have had an effect in terms of equipment and deployability, it might not have. It might surprise you, but I don’t think the deployments played a direct role.
I think racism probably wasn’t a factor. I don’t know the president’s soul, but I think it was people venting because of a really nasty situation mainly. People could not understand why thousands of folks were not being gotten to.
The thing with the levees may have been an academic point, but it speaks to negligence. If improvements were being done at the time of the hurricane, there might have been complaints about the extent and timeliness of the efforts, but there wouldn’t be the kind of blame that comes with taking funds away.
On the subject of the evacuations, I think there was a point when the city government realized it wasn’t going to be able to move those without transportation. Look how many buses had to be used to transport people to the Astrodome and other parts. What he did do was create the shelters of last resort, under the assumption that the federal response would be quick enough to evacuate people from those shelters. That’s why folks were being told the buses and everything that the federal government would have the power to coordinate were coming.
There were failures to go around, certainly, but the essential issue here is authority, communications, and command and control. Those failures, for the most part, belong to the federal response, but unfortunately spill over by that mismanagement to the folks on the ground.
The question is why FEMA had no knowledge of events going on. They were only a satellite or cable TV away from getting that message. Besides, what about radio or satellite borne communications? There is no excuse for why they would not have situational awareness.
The fact is, the horror story that I posted in my latest entry about communication lines being cut was one of many associated with FEMA’s response to Katrina. FEMA has been turning back needed supplies, diverting people from sites that needed help, and has been totally oblivious to some pretty hard to miss events. Whose running things? What’s the chain of command? These are not questions that have been answered with FEMA, so few people trust them to respond appropriately.
The question is, why is it that the very agency that was supposed to come to the rescue flopping around like it had catastrophic brain damage? I think the answer lies in how this agency was restructured and moved into the Department of Homeland Security. Bush wanted to beat Senator Lieberman to the punch after a year in which he opposed the DHS, so he went overboard and created a Frankenstein of an agency. Richard Clarke predicted ahead of time that this mismanaged amalgamation of agencies would be a liability for responding to terrorism. It seems it is a liability for responding to disasters as well. If our people on the ground don’t know who they answer to, if their commanders don’t know the conditions on the ground, if there aren’t clear channels of communication to the president and other leaders setting the agenda, then your efforts will be feckless at best, and counterproductive at worse.
The Lesson here is not that the City and State should have done more, though that may be the case. The lesson here is that it is as important how you organize an agency in terms of its purpose on the ground as it is important to get it the resources and authority it needs.
It’s also important who you put in leadership roles. A person who knows the job, will know what to ask for, who to talk to, and how to structure the agency to the best effect. Put political friends in there instead, especially underqualified ones, and you will reap what you sow.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at September 6, 2005 09:14 AMIf its everyone’s fault, then it is no one’s fault. This will be the defense. Is it sufficient to receive a pass?
The diversionary tactics will also include using all that were saved after all that weren’t. They will say, Bush did act here, and helped there, and many were saved because of his actions. The same will occur with the Governor, and FEMA and Homeland Defense. They all did some good things, and their defenders will ridicule any who wish to focus on the negative, and say they are naysayers and are up to no good.
We have seen all this before. There is however a chain of responsibility. The GOP put forth such as GW Bush, and the GOP is responsible for what Bush does or doesn’t do well. The same holds true for federal cabinet heads, the Governors and Mayors, and the Corps of Engineers. Then there is the budgetary allocation, sufficient and insufficient to meet the challenge called Katrina. The GOP Congress is directly responsible for spending these 13 years. If allocations for levees and other defenses were insufficient, the chain of responsibility leads straight to the GOP Congress in charge of the purse strings.
I think perhaps, there will be a sufficient number of voters who are aware of these facts, and will remember and act accordingly in 2006. If they don’t, we have no right to expect any better performance when the next crisis happens.
Posted by: David R. Remer at September 6, 2005 09:23 AMIts amazing to me how some people want to place blame, and all the blame, at the feet of George Bush. Doesn’t seem to matter what for, just that there is an opportunity to do so. And that is just plain sad. It is sad to see intelligent, well educated people so blinded by their ideology that they can’t see beyond this.
Disaster response to New Orleans was mismanaged. Let’s be clear on that. Some of it was due to the natural consequences of the destruction, and some of it was due to people not doing their jobs properly. The responsibility goes to the mayor, the governor and to FEMA (and thereby to Bush), but not to any one of the three alone.
Michael Chertoff on Meet the Press said that much of the supplies that were prestaged in New Orleans were flooded and unreachable. He pointed out that even the gamed scenarios of such a disaster relied on people evacuating the city ahead of flooding. The surprise of the levees was the timing, which caught EVERYONE by surprise. It was not that they might breach or overflow, but when it happened.
Evacuation did not take place adequately. Some people decided to ride it out, while others had no means of escaping. Yet local officials in Louisiana did little to force people to evacuate, and had they done so, they likely would have been called fascists by the media, especially if flooding had not occurred.
FEMA should be looked at and changed to be more effective. Their communications were woefully inadequate, and their response delayed. We need to learn from this and be better prepared—that doesn’t mean we have to use this as an opportunity to simply blame. IF we focus on blame, and get rid of Chertoff or Brown or whomever, but dont fix the problems, we will have accomplished nothing.
Intelligent and knowledgable people will recognize that we could have prevented this problem by building much stronger and higher levees. We have the capability to prevent most things; for instance, we have the technology to build cars that will withstand any impact and save the passenger’s lives. So why dont we build them? The answer is cost/benefit. Cars would cost $300,000 each and people would not buy them.
New Orleans could have been spared with enough money, but then what about Mississippi? Shouldnt we have spent the money to spare them as well? And if so, then why not spend the billions on protecting the Carolinas as well.
Its easy to use hindsight, but reality intrudes as well. What do we give up in order to do these things? You can say Iraq, but that wouldnt have solved the problems I just presented—-not even close.
Last point: Blast away at this one, but had Nagins and Blanco been Republicans, y’all would be blasting them for their incompetence. Their party affiliation makes them no less or no more incompetent.
Posted by: joebagodonuts at September 6, 2005 10:08 AMBefore any blame is laid, I’d like to know the probability of a class 4-5 hurricane hitting New Orleans.
Statistically, was a preparation for a class 3 adequate planning?
How susceptible was New Orleans to getting a class 4-5 hurricane compared to other cities?
Does this mean that the federal government is now liable to protect adequately protect ALL cities that might possibly get hit by a class 4-5 hurricane sometime in the next million years? What’s the cost involved in hurricane-proofing an entire city? More than one city?
Until someone has answered these questions, it is simply stupid to go assigning preventative blame to the government. The US has never had to deal with a natural disastor of this scale before.
My dad is currently down in Houston offering to help relocate homeless people to New Hampshire and help get them settled. Understandably, most people aren’t interested in heading elsewhere - they’re still in shock, trying to find family members and assess damage. He says the organization for disaster relief is phenominal, and there are thousands of volunteers from every religious creed imaginable assiting the survivors. Having talked to dozens of survivers, he tells me that a prevailing belief is that the Feds had been planning this for decades to get rid of black people - rigged the pumps to fail, vandalized the levees, responded as slowly as was politically feasible to maximize causalties. (Guess that explains why there was a mandatory evactuation?) However, such conspiracy theories aren’t going to help families rebuild their lives.
So quit complaining and quit blaming others. The partisan response to Katrina, compared to the response our country had to 9-11, is simply ridiculous. Until the facts are known, I’ll reserve my criticism for those who criticize others who are actually trying to do something.
Posted by: Gandhi at September 6, 2005 10:30 AMAlthough I support the President in most issues, it has become increasingly harder if at all possible to do so.
A seemingly endless string of events ranging from what some say are inequitible tax breaks, the Iraq War, unpopular or unqualified appointees, abuse of power, lies, coverups, ignoring the UN, failures in Homeland Security, mis-appropriation of funds, damaging budget cuts, Cindy Sheehan and now the hurricane, make it relatively easy for opponents of the present administration to be critical.
These criticisms invariably condemn the act or lack thereof, assign a dollar value to it and, describe the far reaching ramifications. Sometimes there is a suggestion of how to do it better.
Always however there is the common thread predicting the absolute knell of doom, that this administration will lead the country into a near catastrophic abyss from which there will be no return unless they are stopped.
I can understand and appreciate the frustration and/or anger that “anti Bush administration” supporters have.
The thing that confuses me however is that with 3 plus more years of President Bushs’ term and, with the 2007 potential change in the Senate majority being the first opportunity for the Democrats to alter the balance of power (they need to hold the 15 seats they now have and pick up 7 of the 15 that the Republicans have) what else is planned to put the Democrats choice of people in the right places.
Seriously, after the natural “good feeling” one gets from launching into a dissertation on the shortcomings of the present administration. After the name calling and challenges to his wisdom and sanity, etc. what is the plan and, if there is no plan is the continued verbal onslaught worth it.
For good, bad or otherwise, President Bush will be in control through the end of 2008. Barring of course his untimely death or impeachment. If impeachment is sought, the result/consequence is having Dick Cheney as the Commander in Chief.
Posted by: steve smith at September 6, 2005 10:58 AMAnd there you have it folks, the conservatives dodging the blame for their party being in charge at any cost. It is laughable and dreadfully sad that conservatives refuse to accept responsibility, being that their party platform stands for responsibility.
They think they are the Teflon party. We have to change their minds, to protect ourselves. Those who can’t admit mistakes, cannot learn from them, and that makes them dangerous to rely on, as so many thousands have learned in the Gulf Coast areas.
Posted by: David R. Remer at September 6, 2005 10:59 AMThe bottom line is that if you rely on the government for ANYTHING, you will be disappointed time and time again. They will always fall short. They have too many people, no real leadership, too much bureaucracy. They simply will fall short on anything they try to do.
Posted by: Traditionalist at September 6, 2005 11:14 AMAnd there you have it from a pseudo-independent, trying to capitalize from a non-partisan issue:
And there you have it folks, the conservatives dodging the blame for their party being in charge at any cost.
Typical response, David. No where above did I make any references defending my own party. Nor up until now did I criticize the mayor of New Orleans, a liberal, who (dispite his criticism of everyone else’s lack of planning) failed to do his own, and then spent his political capital criticizing the war in Iraq.
What I attacked was the laying of blame in general. How can one exclusively lay blame on one party when the divide in political influence is so miniscule (45% vs. 55%)? Why is the government always to blame? Let’s all shut up and do something.
Posted by: Gandhi at September 6, 2005 11:31 AMDavid Remer,
If you post of 9/6 at 10:59 is in response to my post I fail to see it’s relativity.
My post contains no blame dodging or shirking of responsibility. On the contrary, it expresses an appreciation for the frustration of having to be governed by an administration that seems to be ill-equipped to address many issues.
I am simply asking for an opinion on what courses of action would be consistent with the opposition’s position.
Posted by: steve smith at September 6, 2005 11:34 AMDavid:
To whom were you referring when you say “And there you have it folks, the conservatives dodging the blame for their party being in charge at any cost.”
I don’t see any thing in steve or gandhi’s post, nor in mine, that would qualify as blame dodging. In fact, in my post I actually level some of the blame at the government, and in doing so, lay some of the blame at GBush’s feet.
Perhaps you could explain your comments to help me better understand where you are coming from?
Posted by: joebagodonuts at September 6, 2005 11:42 AMTo all inquiries to Remer:
Putting the blame everywhere (Note FEMA Director blaming victims themselves), puts responsibility nowhere. [Repsonsibility: Ability to Respond, appropriately.]
Posted by: David R. Remer at September 6, 2005 01:04 PMJust a quick note:
Prior to being absorbed by “Homeland Insecurity Agency” FEMA was a well-known, highly regarded disaster response agency.
Their responses to Oklahoma City, previous Hurricanes, the Space Shuttle Disaster, WTC (9/11/2001) all were quick, efficient and well-run (after some early work at getting the bugs out)
However, from what I have heard, since 9/11/2001 and the intrusion of “Homeland Insecurity” — it has become so shackled as to be totally ineffective!!!
The questions are being raised, and criticizm leveled because these are the people that will be responding if and when there is another terrorist attack!!
Now, isn’t it ironic that as a result of the last terrorist attack (9/11/2001), the agency responsible for response is NOW LESS effective than Before 9/11/2001!!
So who exactly do we hold accountable if NOT the person who should have “The Buck Stops Here” on his desk??
PS
My own observation: Mr. Bush has shown ZERO, ZIP NADA in the way of LEADERSHIP in this event.
His public appearances and messages are all relaying info to us that we already know, and comments on what SHOULD BE DONE.
I have not heard ONE WORD from him about HERE IS WHAT WE ARE DOING, HERE IS WHAT I AM HAVING DONE, AND HOW THESE THINGS WILL BE DONE IMMEDIATELY!!!!
I heard from him such enlightening things as:
“The levees have failed”
“There is alot of water in New Orleans”
“It will take many months to recover”
“It will be alot of hard work”
Words to inspire, surely!!!
The primary responsibility for dealing with emergencies belongs to local and state officials who are charged by law with the management of the crucial first response to disasters. Local and state emergency personnel under the supervision of the state governor and his/her emergency operations center should carry out first response.
New Orleans Mayor Nagin (the one that was “pissed” at the Feds) was responsible for giving the order for mandatory evacuation and supervising the actual evacuation. He had school buses at his disposal, which could evacuate 12,000 people at a time. They were parked and not used to move anybody until the flood came. Then they were underwater and not used by anybody.
There is plenty of blame to go around. But most of it doesn’t go to the President. This will come out in time. The initial idea was to blame Bush or at least ensure sure he got no credit for anything. This worked at first, but as the facts come out, it will be less and less effective. Besides, as I have repeated elsewhere, Democrats will never run against George Bush again. Blame him all you want.
Re blame – I don’t think most of this is justified in any case. On NPR’s Marketplace Morning Report at 6:50 this morning I heard an editorial about this response compared to others around the world. Even predictable annual floods in Europe cause significant dislocation. The extent of this disaster was just greater than most and unfortunately it hit one of our poorest and most corrupt states hardest.
One more thing that is very important. We are actually having a proxy debate about the role of the Federal government in details of people’s lives and control of local government. In our American system, we rely much more on local control and private relief than do our friends in Europe (or almost anywhere else). It is the way we are organized and the way we have been organized since at least the time when Alexis de Tocqueville first identified it. This system doesn’t work well except in comparison to all the others. Like the market system or democracy it looks messy and makes mistakes, but it corrects them faster.
It is also interesting that New Orleans only started to improve when the Pentagon got involved. I don’t know what that says, but I am not sure I like the possible answers.
Look, this is the president who made it clear that his mission was the safety and wellbeing of all Americans. This is what he campaigned on. He also campaigned on being the candidate who had their interests at heart.
He is the top executive officer of this country, the first citizen. Therefore, he is responsible in many different ways for safeguarding American lives. The failure to do so in a prompt fashion, when time is of the essence, added to the appearance that he was more concerned with continuing his fundraising than dealing with the disaster, has shown him to be a man whose priorities are not in line with those of his job.
He cannot take back the lives lost to that delay. They are dead, and as the president, guarantor of the safety of all Americans, it is his responsibility.
This administration has responded to may calls for living up to its reponsiblities by playing word games, making crap up, and putting the blame on the victims, and on those concerned citizens who dare ask him whether he’s doing his job. This time, too many people are dead, and this is too clear cut of a situation for folks to back down. If this president wants our trust and our respect as he goes about his duties, then he must demonstrate his leadership in real deeds, not simply words and neat little setups for his speeches.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at September 6, 2005 01:13 PMJack,
FEMA declared a Federal Emergency on Saturday, before Katrina hit. Guess they thought that would be sufficient.
Posted by: David R. Remer at September 6, 2005 01:16 PMStephen, yeah, the photo ops are starting to really piss me off. Using the victims this way is absolutely disgusting.
Posted by: David R. Remer at September 6, 2005 01:18 PMDavid and Stephen:
Since we know that evacuation of citizens would have greatly reduced the problems, and most assuredly the loss of life, would this have been a situation where some type of martial law should have been instituted?
Should local, state or federal officials have the authority to declare martial law or forced evacuation? Under what authority could the any of them impose such a martial law, and would this set a precedent that might have unintended consequences (for instance, should the feds have this authority, and how could it possibly be misused in the future)?
Some politicians and pundits (Jesse Jackson, Michael Moore, Elijah Cummings, Bruce Gordon) have accused Bush of racism in regard to the relief efforts. Would it be acceptable to have the federal government force blacks (and whites) to evacuate their homes for temporary refugee camps, or would this be seen as racism?
Since you are putting the responsibility squarely on the shoulders of the Presidency, are you advocating that the President should be able to usurp local and state laws, local and state relief efforts, and local and state officials in the face of an impending natural disaster? Do you see problems with allowing the federal government to take such control? If you are unwilling to give the feds this kind of control, then how can you hold them responsible for the outcomes?
I’d be interested in your thoughts.
Posted by: joebagodonuts at September 6, 2005 01:51 PMJBOD, you raise excellent points. I will research whether a FEMA declaration of federal emergency as was declared on Saturday night before Katrina hit, has language that permits what you suggest. If it doesn’t, what the hell good are Homeland Defense and FEMA if their hands are tied waiting for a call from a governor who may be dead as a result of the emergency?
Posted by: David R. Remer at September 6, 2005 02:04 PMJBOD,
The State & Federal Government both have the Right of Law to declare Martail Law; however,the problems begin with who calls it into effect. Check http://www.washingtonwatchdog.org/documents/cfr/title32/part501.html#501.4 for a copy of federal law on the subject. (sorry, I still haven’t learned how to link properly)
The Governor of LA by holding her ground gave the State NG the ability to shoot first and ask questions later. If she would of caved into the Federal request to take over, the NG and other Law Enforcement Agencies would of had to be fired upon and be placed in mortal danger before the first shot was fired. Given the reports of citizens walking down the street shotting and raping other citizens I have to side with the Governor of LA on that call.
You know it would be ashame that a NG who served in Iraq during the last year was shot in his own Hometown because by the Laws of the Land he could not take action. What should of took place if President Bush Cabinet would of had their head in the game is the commadering(sp)of the buses on Monday after the first Levee broke and Local Mandated not Mandatory Evacuation was ordered. And that is allowed under State Emergency Powers. In fact, the Governor of NC used that same Law when our state was hit by Floyd a few years back.
Posted by: Henry Schlatman at September 6, 2005 02:42 PMA New Orleans resident who posts here said that the city was as prepared as it could be under the circumstances (in terms of knowing the evacuation and related emergency procedures).
The resident reports that he estimates 80% of the population evacuated with varying degrees of difficulty but, were clear of major implication.
The 2004 census shows 484,674 people living in NO. Simple math tells us that 96,934 did not get out and had to be rescued. This means that in a flooded, ravaged city, 96,934 people had to be located in an area that normally houses 5 times that many.
Motorized ground transport was useless, small boats holding just a few people were used, on top of the 10-20 feet of water running through the streets were fires burning the dry parts of structures, helicopters can only get 1 or 2 people from a rooftop at a time and, there were people looting, shooting and raping. For those who say that only a very small amount of people were committing these crimes I say, one single person committing a crime during a disaster is a serious fly in the rescue ointment and, a deterrent to the process. Note : Eventually buses began taking people from the Superdome to out of town/state locations.
Often there is no way to tell who is sick and who is not. Who needs medical supplies, drugs, etc. is unknown. Who do you rescue first?
Many are going to be surprised when a complete investigation reveals blame by individuals and/or organizations other than those already tried and convicted.
Posted by: steve smith at September 6, 2005 03:52 PMTo all you Republicans who are saying now is not the time or get the facts first, but are being accused of dodging, please ask yourself one question:
Would the left rather have a President Bush such as the one on 9-12-01 or one that seems incompetent?
Few people argue that Bush and others did a great job during the weeks that followed 9/11. His numbers surged and the left trembled. They cannot have that happen again.
They must head everything off at the pass, even if it means stretching the truth and using assumptions.
If they can make any of these assumptions or leaps sound like fact, then, like the race lie, they may get a few more votes.
The next elections are only a year away and they are showing whats more important to them.
How dare you say “save the people then fix the problem.”
Afterall, votes are all that matter.
The American public did not know then, what they know now. The Bush administration had the info needed to be on heightened alert with interceptors at the ready on 9/11. Just as his adminstration had all the information needed to respond immediately after the eye passed through.
The big difference is, on 9/12 the public didn’t know what the administration knew. With Katrina, the public saw on their TV’s in advance of Katrina’s strike exactly what the Bush administration knew. There was no excuse for the 2 day delay in response, and the American people have their own eyewitness of the storm’s progress to prove it.
Bush can do all the trips to the Gulf region for photo ops with victims he wants. This time they will only serve to beg the question: Is GW Bush and a bevy of photographers all the government could send to victims waiting for food, water, shelter, and medical attention?
Seems to me, the photo ops should have waited till after victims were rescued, instead of making them an equal priority.
Posted by: David R. Remer at September 6, 2005 04:13 PMI couldn’t care less about being a Republican right now. The problem with Katrina was that it turned out to be a much bigger problem than originally appeared, and the state refused to relinquish its authority to federal control - denying itself help when it could have used it.
That conservatives are being accused of dodging only goes to show how liberals are trying to capitalize on a national disaster for political gain. That’s a low blow.
To those who accuse conservatives of dodging, you need to frame your accusations on the following basis: What did government officials know, and when did they know it? Was assessed risk met with a porportionate response to its assigned probability? What did officials refrain from doing when they knew they should have done it? Ask your questions properly and you’ll get a proper answer. If you prefer to parrot the perspective of mainstream media, it’s not worth our time answering your questions. So come on, let’s hear some good questions.
Posted by: Gandhi at September 6, 2005 04:16 PMOK all you finger pointers get ready to google up all the information you can find on poisonous snakes, alligators and rabid small animals in flooded metropolitan areas.
Typically after a flood of this magnitude, especially in an area like southern LA the snakes are everywhere. Who shall we blame for the people who get snakebitten in the aftermath of the storm. Obviously it is Bush but who runs the agency responsible for wildlife. I am sure it is some incompetant guy appointed by Bush who has no experience. He was probably a Wall Street Broker.
Rabid Armadillos will abound unless they are eaten by the alligators.
Also the FDA should put out a memo that the crawdads should not be eaten if they are harvested in the flood area.
Posted by: steve smith at September 6, 2005 04:24 PMGandi,
I’ll ask you tha same question that I asked someone else earlier today. If you were Governor would you give up All your State’s Rights and those of your Citizens? Would you place your NG and Law Enforcement Agents in a position where they had to wait until their life was in mortal danger (shot at) before the could respond? Given the fact that The Federal Government is to Aid the State in times of Emergencies, how would you explain to your neighbors that you sold them out for The God Almighty Dollar.
Yet, still more important how can the Republican Party support State’s Rights on one hand and support a policy of a President who by Law would remove those Rights by Precedence? That my friend is a conundrum that has been spun by the words and actions of The Republican Leadership. If President Clinton would of tried such an act, Rush would of had a heart attack yelling on the air.
Posted by: Henry Schlatman at September 6, 2005 04:34 PMHenry:
What should of took place if President Bush Cabinet would of had their head in the game is the commadering(sp)of the buses on Monday after the first Levee broke and Local Mandated not Mandatory Evacuation was ordered. And that is allowed under State Emergency Powers. In fact, the Governor of NC used that same Law when our state was hit by Floyd a few years back.
I’m afraid I don’t understand your comment. You suggest that the Bush Cabinet should have commandeered the buses, but claim that is allowed under STATE emergency powers. Are you saying that State emergency powers allow the federal government to take control or override the state?
You mention that the governor of NC used that law during Hurricane Floyd, but that would seem to be saying that Gov. Blanco of Louisiana should have been the one to do so during Hurricane Katrina.
David:
what the hell good are Homeland Defense and FEMA if their hands are tied waiting for a call from a governor who may be dead as a result of the emergency?
From your comments, it sounds as though you would be in favor of the Federal government having the authority to declare martial law in a circumstance similar to Katrina. I wonder whether you would have been in favor of it BEFORE the actual circumstances were known. I also wonder what your comments would have been had martial law been activated and then no flooding had occurred.
Its easy to look back and say “what if…”. Its better to look back honestly and recognize ourreactions if the circumstances worked out differently. And of course, most such decisions take place before all the eventual circumstances are known. Only in hindsight can we know which plans would have worked out the best.
My crystal ball is busted. I wonder if anyone on the left has one they can lend me. Although for the most part, I see the “left” not using a crystal ball, but rather instant replay, and then coming up with their plan of how they would have done things differently.
Posted by: joebagodonuts at September 6, 2005 04:47 PMIf you were Governor would you give up All your State’s Rights and those of your Citizens?
For a Katrina-scale emergency? Hell yeah.
Would you place your NG and Law Enforcement Agents in a position where they had to wait until their life was in mortal danger (shot at) before the could respond?
This is a weighted question. This situation could only result after federal troops were involved on the ground, and their presence would make local officials less necessary. Since they would be under federal control with federal support, their lives would actually be in less danger. So of course federal protection would be invited.
how would you explain to your neighbors that you sold them out for The God Almighty Dollar.
That’s another weighted question, and one that doesn’t deserve an answer. The primary role of federal government is to protect its citizens; soliciting their support to do so requires no explanation.
Next question please.
Posted by: Gandhi at September 6, 2005 04:49 PMJBOD,
The role of the Federal Government is to support the State. As President, a person is given great powers and responsibilty. Considering the fact that President Bush’s Cabinet Member, Mr. Chertoff declared the National Respone Plan in effect, the problem became that of the Presidents under The Law of the Land. However, being Right in one’s Actions in time of Great Necessity overrides The Law and therefore, if I was the Mayor those buses would of been on the road Monday Night. Hope that clears up a few things.
On the Evacuaton, Yes, Governor Blanco could/can of ordered a Mandated Evacuation of a given area for legitimant reasons. Thus, anyone who does not leave willingly has two choices. Sign a piece of paper stating that they assume All responsibilty and that no assistance will be given or leave.
Gandi,
Are you sure you would give up your State’s Rights so easily? Do you know that in doing so the next time a hurricane hits you give the Federal Government Precedence to put all your corporations out of business?
Watch how much Haliburton gets and how much the Local/State Businesses get out of The Clean-Up Funds and ask yourself if your Governor sold your business down the creek so that President Clinton’s Friends could make all the money would you elect him again?
FYI, the Federal Troops can only assist civilains, they are, by Law, not allowed to preform Law Enforcement duties. Thats why Governor Blanco wanted to keep her NG under her control. That way if needed they could shot first and ask questions later. Under Federal Law, the NG and Federal Troops must take fire and have no retreat before they are allowed to use deadly force. Why do you think the General was so pissed at the Troops and yelling at them to lower their weapons the other day on TV?
Posted by: Henry Schlatman at September 6, 2005 05:29 PMThank you, Rhinehold. I feel more intelligent on this topic having read your piece.
Posted by: Chops at September 6, 2005 06:27 PMJbod said: “From your comments, it sounds as though you would be in favor of the Federal government having the authority to declare martial law in a circumstance similar to Katrina. I wonder whether you would have been in favor of it BEFORE the actual circumstances were known.”
Quite frankly, JBOD, I had assumed all along from the time Homeland Defense was created that the President had that power, and I have never been critical of the President or Homeland Defense for having that power to move in and take charge in the event of a major catastrophe. I think much of America made the same assumption judging by the reaction.
Posted by: David R. Remer at September 6, 2005 07:31 PMJoe-
I believe Martial law was instituted early on. Unfortunately, martial law without soldiers is like having a security policy for your building without security guards.
I think Federal authority must be greater during times of disaster for obvious reasons: state and local government might not be in any shape to do the job any longer. Martial law, of course, is what you bring in when there is no longer enough of a functioning police presence, in proportion to the lawlessness, to keep the peace. It’s what we should have started out the occupation in Iraq with.
As for the race card, I feel it somewhat inappropriate, but understand its source: When people are provided with little explanation as to why promised help is not forthcoming, and other more fortunate souls are given aid, the natural response is to find a reason that one can rail against.
If the president had gone the extra mile in evacuating the stranded souls after the hurricane, nobody would be levelling the kind of criticism they are now at him. I said two days after the disaster that heroic measures were required. I’ll say it again. Unfortunately, those weren’t the measures taken. Folks waited in Washington, and people waited in misery and filth and suffering in the convention center and the Superdome.
Steve Smith-
We had approximately half that amount in the shelters, and not all of those streets were flooded that deeply. The question of who was responsible for the post-storm recovery, when federal efforts were of the essence, will probably not yield too many surprising answers.
As for that snake issue, you’re taking the issue to an illogical extreme, parodying what is a serious and important issue. We know the president has broad, far reaching powers in times of disasters, though not to that St. Patrick level you would have use believe we’re advocating. The ability to get supplies and troops in should not be reduced to some bad joke about blaming Bush for snake bites.
The FDA should put out a memo on that, by the way- seafood concentrates toxins very effectively, and there is some nasty shit in the floodwaters (literally and figuratively)
kctim-
Look, it was Bush’s choice whether to be 9/12/01 or 9/10/01 about this. And really, we didn’t have to cut him down on this, he hamstrung himself. Once again, you are focusing on our politics, instead of recognizing that sometimes our politics take their lead from our sense of human decency and compassion. If Bush had taken a couple days off the week we were attacked, he’d have likely been forced to resign.
Gandhi-
Do you think being a Democrat is important to people like me now? You do, it seems. You think so without justification, then. We’re not trying to capitalize on this, although this terrible response will probably add motivation to our efforts later.
Our officials knew or should have known about this at the beginning of the first term. As for percentages and proportions, those are secondary to results. Will you explain percentages and probabilities to grieving orphans, widows and widowers, parents, and loved ones? No. Such things are meant to be the tools, and not the tool-users of those who prepare our emergency response.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at September 6, 2005 08:01 PMSD
“Once again, you are focusing on our politics”
Stephen, nobody really knows anything about what has happened with Katrina and NO. 90% of what is out now is guess work.
So, with no real facts and with people still dying by the day, why is it so much more important to ensure Bush looks bad to the voters?
Hell, even I had the decency to not blame clinton until the facts were out.
It comes down to proper preparation and then execution of that plan. The school buses were mentioned. I heard one local official say that there was no communication because no one had anyone else’s number. That is unacceptable— a phone list is the first piece of your disaster response plan. Communication is the basis of starting your plan.
The bottom line is that local and state officials both elected and appointed left town and left the city with no functioning government. I have seen and heard a lot of anger and indignation from the N.O. Mayor. What was his plan? Where was this plan? Why wasn’t it put into action? It’s not like Katrina came out of nowhere and struck in the dark of night. Louisiana and New Orleans officials had ample time to plan and prepare. They did not (that anyone has seen). For a city built below sea level, surrounded on 3 sides by water, there should have been a disaster response plan. If there is one, then no one implemented it. Everyone went their separate ways until it came time to start placing blame.
What did the Mayor or the Governor do to prepare? It seems to me that transport helicopters could have been requested well before the storm, in order to either move people & supplies or have them ready to go as soon as conditions would permit. Communication lines and contingency plans could have been drawn up and prepared. At the very least, first responders could have been briefed on how to proceed should contact be lost.
The federal gov’t stepped in once it was clear that there was no functioning government in New Orleans and the situation was getting out of hand. Had the local and state officials had even the most rudimentary crisis response plan in place, most of this misery might have been avoided.
If anyone is to blame in this, it is those charged with running the city of New Orleans, the affected parishes, and state officials for not having the proper plans in place to handle this disaster.
On the radio this morning, I heard something that made me think— this hurricane was a known event with a known target, and officials at many levels utterly failed to manage it properly. What is going to happen if/when terrorists strike somewhere that is not known, in a manner that we have never experienced before..? Food for thought.
I sincerely hope that Louisiana and New Orleans residents are able to vote every elected official out of office whenever the next elections can be held there. Abandoning your responsibilities in the time of greatest need is unacceptable.
Proper Prior Planning PRevents Piss Poor Performance.
Matt Unger
Posted by: Matt Unger at September 7, 2005 09:35 AMMatt, I really don’t see how, after what we witnessed, that local officials, (police and fire, excepted) can esacape legitimate criticism that the plans in hand were both inadeqate and not implemented effectively. Implementation of existing plans may have valid and exonerating explanations in light of communications infrastructure damage, for example, but the emergency plans should have anticipated that.
That said, the Homeland Defense has spent huge American tax dollars on planning, and reporting to the American people that inter-agency communications so lacking after 9/11 would not hamper us in the next catastrophe. Obviously, that money was poorly spent and wasted.
I am watchging C-span, where Republican Senators and Democrat alike, like Lott, Collins, Lieberman are frankly critical of the federal response and delays. America was not asked to invest in New Orleans or any other specific city to insure the next large catastrophe could be mitigated or averted. It was the Federal Government they were asked to invest their tax dollars, their hopes, and their expectations in when it came to another catastrophe like 9/11 or Katrina.
And since the next catastrophe could have struck in any states of the union at anytime, it is reasonable for the American people to be disappointed and angry at this federal government when that next test came and went with such inadequate response on all levels.
Posted by: David R. Remer at September 7, 2005 09:55 AMWe often refer to a catagory 5 hurricane as the maximum or worst storm possible. While this is true by definition of the 5 catagories, a catagory 5 says that winds greater than 155 mph which can be any velocity greater than 155 mph. So, providing protection against the maximum is only guess work. Since there have been only 3 of these catagory 5 hurricanes since the recording of data, it would not be unreasonable to consider cost vs risk.
A catagory 1 hurricane (Lili) hit the LA coast in 2002
A catagory 5 (Camille) hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast in 1969
A catagory 4/5 (Katrina) hit the Mississippi and LA coast in 2005
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
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The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane’s present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.
Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.
Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.
Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb—the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses—the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 888 mb.
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Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch, About Us, Contact Us
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David R. Remer:
I am watchging C-span, where Republican Senators and Democrat alike, like Lott, Collins, Lieberman are frankly critical of the federal response and delays. America was not asked to invest in New Orleans or any other specific city to insure the next large catastrophe could be mitigated or averted. It was the Federal Government they were asked to invest their tax dollars, their hopes, and their expectations in when it came to another catastrophe like 9/11 or Katrina.
Why not go back to Clinton and blame him for not rebuilding the Levies or the president before or before…or when were those Levies built?
(really am asking the question, not blaming them myself).
What I’ve seen here and elsewhere:
1. Democrats blaming Bush (republican) and giving a pass to the mayor and governer (democrats) when there are clearly good reasons to blame them too, preferring to wait for all of the facts to come in.
2. Republicans blaming the mayor and governor (democrats) and giving a pass to Bush (republican) when there are clearly good reasons to blame him too, preferring to wait until all facts are in.
3. Everybody denying that they are partisan.
Were it not so serious, it might make a good comedy skit.
Also, a probabliltiy question was asked. . I heard the probability of a Category 5 hitting NO was .05. I’m not saying that means anything. Just answering the question.
Posted by: jacktruth at September 7, 2005 01:14 PM“What we have here is a failure to communicate.” - Strother Martin
Really, all of government and voters are to blame.
But, only voters are capable of bringing about change now. And, sooner would be better than later.
I wanted to say one more thing about:
“I am watchging C-span, where Republican Senators and Democrat alike, like Lott, Collins, Lieberman are frankly critical of the federal response and delays. America was not asked to invest in New Orleans or any other specific city to insure the next large catastrophe could be mitigated or averted. It was the Federal Government they were asked to invest their tax dollars, their hopes, and their expectations in when it came to another catastrophe like 9/11 or Katrina.”
Now that both party nominations are up in the air in 08, as well as a mid-term election next year, it has become fashionable to criticize the President. Democrats never stopped and will capitalize on the racial-class warfare aspect. Republicans will attempt to capture a “I’m not a yes-man” image and break ranks with the President. They don’t care about what is going on, they are battling over who looks like they care the most. American politics is not about ideas, it’s about getting enough power that you no longer have to listen to ideas. This has never been so clear as with Katrina.
Posted by: jacktruth at September 7, 2005 01:54 PMkctim-
I know who’s in charge of what and the kind of response I saw. Still, I may have been directing my criticism a little to stridently in just Bush’s direction.
I guess he’s a lightning rod for me here. I knew with a CAT 5 hurricane it was going to be some nasty crap, and that the state responses where going to get swamped. I was thinking that as in the past, as with 9/11 and a million other emergencies I’ve seen in my time, that FEMA and other relief organizations would do their job. It’s the same expectation in terms of the military and intelligence that I had with Iraq.
Under nobody else’s leadership have I seen things get this bad, this fast. Every other president in my memory, Republican or Democrat, has reacted better than this man has to the kind of emergencies confronted by him. I truly fear for this country under his leadership, and it’s not something I can shake off so easy.
I don’t know what I want in terms of a political response. Part of me wants the Democrats to gain some kind of new majority, to make sure that Bush has to talk with us concerning policy. If we don’t have a majority somewhere, then we can’t force accommodation. On the other hand, there will be some Democrats who become casualties of the disaster response, and I can’t say I mind that.
I’m sure this conflicted view is common to many, who think their people are the best folks to represent the country, but at the same time must face up to the fact that many on both sides of the aisle failed.
If the response had gone smoother at the federal level though, I guarantee you there wouldn’t have been as much of an uproar. Bush has campaigned as a protector. People expected that government under his auspices would do better than that. That’s an expectation people expect of all their officials, and a judgment that perhaps will be kinder to some than to others.
I guess we’ll have to see about the outcome.
jacktruth-
If it’s not the time to blame Bush, it’s not the time to clear him either.
This is a typical Bush-Republican maneuver. When you screw up and the people realize that you screwed up, place the blame on someone else. If that doesn’t work, drown the public in details. It does not matter what details. Anything that distracts the public from the original screw-up. If this does not work, find fault with those complaining.
Bush is worshiped as being the great leader who will take care of us in case the homeland is attacked. He was re-elected because of this misguided view of the majority. Here comes a horrendous calamity which makes obvious to all that our homeland is NOT well protected.
And what are Republicans doing? Playing “Who’s on first?” Nothing is more important to them than defending our dear leader.
Let’s try to think of how we can help the unfortunate in future disasters.
Posted by: Paul Siegel at September 7, 2005 03:23 PMPaul Siegel:
You can reverse this just as easy:
This is a typical maneuver. When you screw up and the people realize that you screwed up, place the blame on someone else. If that doesn’t work, ignore the details and blame the guy at the top. It does not matter what the details are. Anything that distracts the public from the original screw-up. If this does not work, find fault with those complaining.
Anyway, your original point would apply to Bill Clinton if looked back at the Lewinski incident.
Be honest. You’re not describing the behavior of Democrats or Republicans, it the behavior of those in power and those not in power. If the power structure were reversed, the arguments would be reversed. That is American politics.
Posted by: jacktruth at September 7, 2005 03:49 PMStephen Daugherty
I have a question for you.
You mentioned 9/11 as an example of how things were handled. That was THIS president.
Can you give another example of a natural disaster as bad as Katrina?
It is difficult to determine how far reaching the “investigation” will go.
While it may never be known IMO there were probably so many building, zoning and public works codes violations that rebuilding the city after the disaster will be cheaper than the repair/upgrade costs would have been.
Of course its going to be a better city after its rebuilt because there will be people ensuring adherence to code. Materials will be better, there will be inspections. I have heard people comment that they have seen building walls in NO made of material weaker than fortune cookies.
I posted the 5 hurricane classifications earlier. Based on the destructive descriptions of those, a severe catagory 3 hurricane might well have done comparable damage to Katrina (catagory 4).
Posted by: steve smith at September 7, 2005 04:20 PMJacktruth-
The FEMA that handled 9/11 was a cabinet level agency coming off of years of praised performance in crises, including the devastating Mississipi Floods of 1993. The FEMA we have today is the result of the department being crushed under the bulk of the Department of Homeland Security, recentered on a response to terrorism, and underfunded.
As for other disasters, ones like Camille, the 1900 hurricane that struck Galveston, the Reelfoot Earthquakes of the early 1800s are comparable in strength and power.
You’ll notice something: None of these struck when the Gulf Coast or Mississippi basin region were all that populated. The Death toll from those disasters today would be considerably greater.
Reelfoot in particular. You probably know the name “New Madrid” from a few years back. You see, there’s this failed continental rift about a few miles down beneath the Mississippi watershed where North America once tried to separate like The Arab Peninsula and Africa did, but didn’t go all the way. There’s some sort of fault structure there, which every once and a while unleashes some pretty strong quakes.
The consequences for one of these in today’s densely populated Mississippi watershed would be hideous. We’ve got tons of experience with quakes in California where solid rocks dissipate and channel vibrations pretty quickly, but when Earthquakes take place beneath loose soil, it can be devastating. Just ask Mexico City, 1985. The whole city was built on a filled in lake. The vibration set buildings to vibrate, even bash against one another.
San Francisco and Alaska experiences similiar problems for similar reasons- San Fransisco for the building built on fill dirt, Juneau for its fine grained clays. They experienced another phenomenon associated with loose, moist soils- liquifaction. The shaking causes the fine-grained soils and the groundwater to mix into a quicksand-like slurry, which naturally is less well suited to supporting structures than the drier version of the soils. There are blowholes along the Mississippi in Missouri, where buried debris was blasted for yards when the liquified soil erupted from the ground.
When these Earthquakes last hit, few white settlers were unfortunate enough to be in their way. Now, of course, that area is the midwest, and the region in question is a major population center.
There are other potential disasters that could be equally if not more devastating. The Classic “Big One” near the San Andreas fault system would be such a disaster, especially if the fault that snapped were beneath a major city. Going North, we would find the subduction zone on the Washington coast ready to snap and possibly create devastating tsunamis, and Mount Rainier, overdue for an eruption and sporting historic mudflows on its sides that we brilliant creatures have built towns on top of. there’s Yellowstone Park, which is in reality Yellowstone Caldera, a still active volcanic hotspot with the capacity to render much of North America uninhabitable and start another ice age. There’s a volcano in the Canary Islands that could take out the East Coast, while we’re at it, with waves towering thousands of feat in the air.
People shouldn’t wonder why I don’t complain about where people place cities. Truth is, If New Orleans is asking for it, then there are a ton of other cities asking for it too.
We’re going to get hit again, and hit this hard at some time in the future. The question is whether you would like the response Katrina got, or something better.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at September 7, 2005 07:35 PMStephen:
Interesting, informative. No I would want better performance. But I think the problems with Katrina were more than just FEMA not being a cabinet position, although I think it definately contributes.
I think future problems with quakes in California (for example) are probably destined to be handled better than Katrina because Californians and California officials both understand the situation, and are better prepared with first response. The problems in NO were clearly overall first response, whether that is local or federal and where it broke down is where this whole thing needs to flesh out. I guarantee that at this point nobody has all of those facts. I’m interested in the facts of the matter and look forward to hearings. Thanks for the info. Probably too much information.
Posted by: jacktruth at September 7, 2005 11:08 PMWhy is everyone pointing at the federal government? FEMA is NOT a first-responder agency. The federal government only comes in once the state government requests that help.
If any initial blame is to be placed, we need to look at the city, parish, and state governments. What, if anything did any of these elected and/or appointed officials do or not do? Was there a response plan? If so, was it implemented in a timely and effective manner? If not, then why not?
I am not partisan at all, as I am a registered Independent, so I tend to look at the problem from a more or less objective point of view.
Yes federal response could have been quicker, but at what cost? Should the federal gov’t step into state disaster planning at its discretion/whim? It is the RESPONSIBILITY of the local and state governments to provide PRIMARY protection for its residents. When you have a security or health emergency, you call the police or fire department which is either city or county administered. You don’t call the federal government. It is the city, parish, and state officials who must be held accountable for whatever happened and failed to happen when assessing the response to this disaster.
Yes, the federal response should be looked at too, but only from the perspective of what they are empowered BY LAW to do in these cases. FEMA’s organization should be re-examined, but it does not minimize the apparent lack of planning/action by local and state officials. The Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) budget can be looked into as well, but again that does not excuse the lack of preparation and response by local and state government officials.
If you must place blame, you need to start looking at the proper levels of government FIRST.
Matt Unger
Posted by: Matt Unger at September 8, 2005 07:58 AMStop, stop, stop! Hold everything.
“Bush lifts wage rules for Katrina
President signs executive order allowing contractors to pay below prevailing wage in affected areas”
WHAT! The bastard! Go-read this-then some editor start a tread PLEASE!
http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/08/news/economy/katrina_wages.reut/index.htm
*thread (sorry)
For that matter, follow up here, I don’t care. Now, before the building even begins, that’s going to be screwed up as well.
How any sane person can NOT look to the top first is beyond me! How you can skip over the facts that Bush cares NOT A LICK for us is beyond me!
These people are play ground crooks who can’t do anything for there fellow americans except come up with new ways to screw us. Screw us and blame ANYONE but themselfs. Who’s fault will it be next? The waters for bieng so wet?
Italian Buddha,
Sorry, the link took forever to load and i wandered away…
It is appalling and Bush has NO ONE else to blame this time. He messed up royally and i will be watching to see who is willing to speak up against him.
Posted by: jo at September 9, 2005 01:35 AMItalian Buddha, I think you’re overreacting. Consider this:
-Without dropping wages, it will be impossible for FEDERAL contractors to complete work at the pace that is required to still make a profit. Given the scope of reconstruction required, the government must get low quotes on its projects to be able to fund all of them.
-Lower wages means that FEDERAL contractors will be able to hire more workers. Who do you think those workers will be? You got it - jobless New Orleans residents.
From an economic standpoint, your real complaint is actually the lack of federal funding available for reconstruction.
Posted by: Gandhi at September 9, 2005 10:47 AMI think bush is a moron and he should be kicked from office any party is better except the nazi party which isnt so far behind and im jewish.
Posted by: Andrew at September 9, 2005 01:58 PMAndrew,
I think the entire system is broken,
and voters should start voting only for non-incumbent (preferrably, non-main-party) candidates,
repeatedly, every election,
until the nations top 10 problems are resolved.
Otherwise, they’ll just continue to take turns fillin’ their pockets, selling government, and being irresponsibile, greedy, and unaccountable.
______________________________
Matt Unger,
Yes, I believe you are correct.
While the federal government is incompetent too,
most of the reasons for so many problems is because of the incompetence of the local governments (first). Louisianna and New Orleans have squandered money and opportunities, and ignored countless warnings for decades, that could have avoided the inevitable.
Also, the people that could evacuate, but didn’t, selfishly endanger those that genuinely could not evacuate.
While government, in this era of fiscal and moral bankruptcy, is severely incompetent, not everything is their fault, despite those that want to blame someone else for their own stupidity (i.e. the many that could evacuate, and didn’t).
