Third Party & Independents: Archives

October 12, 2004

Why Kerry's not doing so well in polls

While polls differ as to the question which candidate would be elected president if the elections were held today, Media Tenor’s data shows that Kerry’s coverage in the context of hard issues, such as the economy, healthcare or education, is mostly negative on TV news.

Despite positive coverage of his campaign, his personal life and history and his performance in the first two TV debates, Kerry has received negative coverage in the context of the issues that are currently most important to Americans. These results point to the uphill battle Kerry is facing in trying to win over swing voters.

A recent Newsweek poll (September 30 - October 2) of a total of 1,013 registered voters nationwide found that the most important issues in determining their vote for president this year are, in this order, terrorism and homeland security, the economy and the situation in Iraq. A look at Media Tenor's data from June to October 2004 shows that the coverage of Kerry on TV networks regarding these issues has been mostly negative in tone and has decreased since the beginning of September. At the same time, Bush's ratings have increased in the context of these issues, also starting in September.


You can find the charts at: http://www.mediatenor.com/issues101204.pdf

Posted by Isadora Badi at October 12, 2004 05:18 PM
Comments
Comment #29357

Isn’t this post a little late? The Newsweek poll it’s referring to was taken just before we started feeling the outcome of the first debates. And I think those debates were the first time some people could really see what John Kerry is about without the screen of the Bush campaign’s negativity.

Posted by: Bart at October 12, 2004 05:27 PM
Comment #29378

The Newsweek poll is indeed old, but it seems that Isadora’s point about it relates to info that other polls have comfirmed—that security is the number one issue for voters this go-around.

I still have my doubts about these studies which purport to show “negativity of tone.”

Both the words “negative” and “tone” seem pretty subjective mental categories, though I assume that there must be some sort of objective criteria working here. Think about it.

If I say John Edwards has great hair, that might seem a positive remark, and I might smile agreeably while I say it (to supply a positive seeming tone) but it’s actually a pretty disparaging remark to make about a VP candidate.

I can’t picture even Democratic partisans maintaining that Kerry gets negative coverage from the networks. Cheerleading seems more like it.

Posted by: Martin at October 13, 2004 12:00 AM
Comment #29379

Well, the poll that counts will not be free of Bush spin.

I just watched Frontline tonight, and am more pissed than ever at Bush. I am reminded once again that Bush elected to nvade Iraq to resolve a long standing irritation with his father’s defeat and seeming impotence with Iraq.

I am troubled by the way they represented Kerry’s position on Desert Storm. They neglected to point out that Iraq was armed by America, invited to invade the Kingdom of Kuwait by an American diplomat, and that GHW Bush used Kuwaiti disinformation (the stealing of incubators from babies)to stir up America for a war to protect the Saudi Oil fields.

It should also be noted here that GHW Bush did one time tell the truth about the reason for the first Gulf War. It was about access to oil. He never repeated that statement. Sadam was trying to be the new Nassar. He did not comply with OPEC and was seeking to expand his power there. The Saudi’s and the US decided to swat him down. This is the same issue that Osama is using.

This is the imperialism that the US is imposing upon the middle east. You may call it realignment or democratization. But we tacitly ignore the suppression in Saudi Arabia and Egypt and overtly support the Saudi, and Kuwaiti monarchies. We once called the genocide of the Indians and the Invasion of Mexico Manifest Destiny, but it was still imperialism.

I benefit from this position of the US. I just wish people would stop trying to convince me it’s because we love freedom. GW Bush ain’t no freedom loving flower child. We love cheap Oil.

Posted by: Greg at October 13, 2004 12:04 AM
Comment #29393

Greg, that’s why I’m in love with Kerry’s plan to make the United States energy independent within a decade.

Not only does it free us from OPEC blackmail, funding terrorism, and charges of petro-colonialism, but it creates new jobs and new opportunities for entrpreneurs.

Combine that with Kerry’s plan for affordable healthcare that takes the burdon off businesses, and America’s back in business.

Posted by: American Pundit at October 13, 2004 01:59 AM
Comment #29440

Why is there NOTHING about the Libertarians or the Greens, etc on this blog??

Posted by: Wendy Terry at October 13, 2004 11:43 AM
Comment #29451

Wendy, Maybe because we don’t have runnoff elections and we are continually forced to vote against the worst.

Election and campaign reform now!

Posted by: Ben at October 13, 2004 12:09 PM
Comment #29498

I think alot of young people have a misunderstanding of what exactly aroung the world today…I have few werds people may not even care for one thing that i say however i think that alot of young people should see Fahrenheit 9-11 movie by Michael Moore, if people have questions regarding the U.S. and it’s president then this movie would be a good source of information. The people are real and it deatails how messed up the system is but with bush’s family things really have gotten just out of hand over the years… See it you won’t believe have the thing you see.

Posted by: Yahaira at October 13, 2004 02:46 PM
Comment #29520

Wendy,
The reason the Greens and Libertarians are not being discussed now is because their candidates failed to use their ability to speak out and capture the imagination of the citizens of this country. Until a third party candidate can create a vision that will capture the spirit of this country, we will be forced to listen to the Dems and Reps talking points.

On the game of the polls:
Question: Is this just a game the media is playing in order to keep their ratings high?

MSNBC Question of the Day only allows you to vote once. The second debate clearly showed Kerry won the debate. 76% to 24% with over a 100,000 votes, could it be that the poll numbers are to low and pointed to show the difference?

Watch how the polls move over the states especially over the release of the news that breaks, but has been known by the media.

Posted by: Henry Schlatman at October 13, 2004 04:03 PM
Comment #29535

Isadora,

I’d offer up this trending look at Newsweek polling to counter your argument.

Kerry dramatically closed the gap on the issues of Iraq and National Security, solely on beating Bush in the first debate, where the sole topic was?

It has always been feasible for Kerry to win this election, even by losing these priority issues to Bush. But, it is barely feasible for Bush to prevail, when losing on all other issues.

No incumbent President has won without a popular vote total over 50%, or an approval rating breaking 50%, either.

The first two debates - clearly won by Kerry -have been dominated by the Iraq and Terrorism, supposedly Bush’s strength.

If Kerry wins tonite, can we now say the most important issue was really leadership?

Posted by: Bert M. Caradine at October 13, 2004 05:26 PM
Comment #29555

To Greg,
As far as frontline goes, you oughtn’t get so worked up at Bush over the hugely left slant of Public Television. I watched the whole thing too, and shook my head the whole time. Every photo of Kerry, every clip of Kerry, he’s a genius, a man of honor, a hero. When they had a chance to speak for the Vietnam Vets who were upset with what he said, they pawned it off as a political ploy by Nixon. Kerry the Hero. Save us John Kerry.
Bush; however, was portrayed at every opportunity as a coward, or a drunk, or a freeloader, or a yahoo. They even chose to show a picture of him blowing an enormous bubble with chewing gum during one segment that categorized his Guard Duty.
It makes me sick that my tax dollars go to subsidize that pathetic left wing outlet. I loved it last week they did a piece on ANWR and how “big oil companies” were environmentally destroying the landscape of the north, and how it is vitally important not to drill in ANWR. What a load of garbage. They showed video from the lower portions where there are trees and mountians, “AND ANIMALS” and then talked about how drilling would destroy their native habitat. The laughable fallacy is that the drilling site is the size of a postage stamp on an NBA basketball court, and is at the uppermost tundra where even caribou don’t frequent.
Public Television is a joke. Again, I iterate, you shouldn’t sacrifice lower blood pressure when they are pandering to your political views already. They are on your side! They’ll tell you whatever they can to try and paint Bush as the bad guy. Take it with a grain of salt.

Nanook of the North.

Posted by: Nanook at October 13, 2004 09:08 PM
Comment #29564

The over promotion of polls is, unfortunately, part of the horse race mentality that permeates most media election coverage. The public would be better served to have actual analysis of the positions rather than sound bites. But, the public is also to blame in that our electorate is relatively illiterate.
As to third party candidates, unless someone like Bill Gates gets involved personally or throws a big chunk of his fortune behind someone, third parties will continue to be relevant only as spoilers(which Nader may have a part in yet again).

Posted by: Scott at October 13, 2004 10:03 PM
Comment #29580

Scott,
Although a Bill Gates would be nice as a backer, Dean’s “Army of the Internet” should of shown you that a bunch of people seating at home in their pajamas can have a bigger impact.

Posted by: Henry Schlatman at October 14, 2004 12:19 AM
Comment #29581

Nanook, I didn’t get worked up, but you seem to have done so.

I think Frontline was pretty factual and and even handed.

I suspect you really don’t want to believe that Bush isn’t John Wayne, but he isn’t.

Kerry does have faults and I’m not at all sure he will make a great president.

I also do not want the religious right choosing any supreme court members. Thanks, but I’d rather leave religous fundamentalism to the Taliban. I’d kind of like to keep our Constitution.I believe GW Bush has been an abysmal president and does not deserve another four years to screw things up any worse.

As to why there are not many third party comments here, maybe it’s because Ralph Nader or any other third party candidate hasn’t got a snowball’s chance in hell of having any influence in this election.

Posted by: Greg at October 14, 2004 12:26 AM
Comment #29597

Why is Kerry polling badly? Dunno. It might be because he’s got all the personality of a 2x6 slab of sheetrock, but that might just be me.

I do have one tidbit to offer. Here in MN, whenever the Democrat’s ballot shenanagans make the news, Kerry’s poll numbers dip. Maybe that’s coincidental. Or maybe the pollsters are asking the wrong questions. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Posted by: Alan Smithee at October 14, 2004 06:50 AM
Comment #30013

I think Kerry polls badly because regardless of what issues are discussed, and whatever rationality is used to argue them, and whatever evidence (either truthful, skewed, or flat out dishonest) is used to back up the arguments, the only one that matters is “God”.

If one believes that our country is supposed to be a christian nation, then no amount of effort on Kerry’s part to express his devotion make up for the fact that he believes that our country is supposed to be an experiment in civil govenment, outside the pale of any divine right.

To anyone who believe we are supposed to be a christian nation, no argument about any earthly issue will overcome the notion that “God Must Rule”. Better disaster than to be left out in the cold, trying to rule ourselves.

Kerry polls badly because ruling ourselves a tough sell.

Posted by: John Clarke at October 16, 2004 02:08 AM
Comment #30025

This one might happen to believe that this is supposedto be a muslim nation. Allah Akbar.:)

Posted by: Greg at October 16, 2004 04:57 AM
Comment #30290

Kerry does not do well because I and my wife dont want our daughters to where berkas. God bless America and death to all islamist extremests. Go home to Iran and leave America alone. John Kerry will let more of you in like clinton did with the hijackers. Teresa Kerry is too ugly to be first lady anyway…

Posted by: Va Jina Cheize at October 18, 2004 12:44 AM
Comment #30341

If you want to know why Kerry isn’t doing well. Read this article from a self proclaimed liberal democrat:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1314232_1,00.html

Posted by: Brian H. at October 18, 2004 07:59 AM