June 30, 2003
Public opinion, Iraq and 2004
As I predicted a few weeks ago, the US public is already losing interesting in Iraq.
Only 56 percent of Americans view the current fighting as going well in Iraq, according to a new CNN/USA Today Gallup poll. That is much lower than the 70 percent in late May and the 86 percent in early May who thought the fighting was going well.
That means in the last two months public support has dropped a jaw dropping 30%. Not a good sign considering Rumsfeld and most military experts say we’re going to be there for a while. Not only do Americans feel the war/conflict/fight/whatever isn’t going well, but more Americans now than ever feel that we shouldn’t have gone to war in the first place.
[...] the percentage of those who believe going to war in Iraq was worthwhile has fallen to 56 percent from 73 percent in April [...]
As the search for WMD's intensifies so will the public's scrutiny of our presence in the middle east. Much to my amazement more than two thirds think having troops in Iraq now is a good thing and three quarters think the number of combat deaths in Iraq since April was to be expected because of the dangers.
However, how could this possibly affect Bush in the upcoming election? Some of the numbers that will affect the campaign trail is the fact that more than half those polled said it would matter "a great deal" if they were misled, not to mention those who probably mentioned it would only "matter." Another number that may be sneaking up on the White House is the number of Americans, 37% up 6%, who think the White House deliberately misled the public about the WMD threat in Iraq.
I have a lot of theories about how this may play out. They range from Cheney and Bush pointing the finger at Rumsfield (or Powell) to Bush completely resigning (I'm hoping for some tapes). Only time will tell, but history is on my side.
Posted by joestump at June 30, 2003 09:41 PMDon’t hold your breath for a Bush resignation. In fact, the War in Iraq went much better than almost anyone (aside from the neo-cons) projected. It’s very doubtful indeed that the public will punish Bush for a victory in Iraq.
I wouldn’t expect Democrats to get any more mileage out of accusing Bush for misleading or lying than those who criticized Clinton for exagerrating the scope of the horrors in Kosovo. (See http://www.beggingtodiffer.com/archives/2003_06.html#000164)
As for the poll, I’m amused somewhat by your claim that “public support has dropped a jaw dropping 30%” when there’s still a clear majority supporting the war. That’s quite an interesting interpretation of the numbers. More likely, some of the people polled were confused by the question, as they believe the fighting ended a while back.
About the only thing I do agree with you about is that the public is losing interest in Iraq. But I think that’s because they consider the threat neutralized, and I think most credit Bush and company for that.
Posted by: Greg at June 30, 2003 11:41 PMI know in my heart that the war in Iraq was political and to gain wealth. They say the people are warming up to Americans being there, well of course you would too if you were starving. That seems to be the way to make friends with a animals, feed them and they will bend to your will. Remember not all succumb to this treatment, there will be those who know whats really going on and would rather kill you than be bullied. Put yourself in their land for a change, would you permit any of that to happen here in America? No you wouldn’t, you would see more civilian fire power then any war to date. What I have learned from all this is; we haven’t learned anything from our past.
Posted by: Spiritseek at July 1, 2003 01:15 PM
