Hillary Should Worry About Her FireWall

Guess what? Trump’s campaign stops are not merely ego boosting rallies that make no sense strategically. We now have FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver pointing out that going to Wisconsin and Michigan is exactly what Trump should be doing in order to have a chance at breaking Hillary’s so-called firewall of fairly safe blue states. And Frank Luntz has said that states like Colorado and North Carolina are also key to this election.

But the motherlode of all polling data is really the national numbers, if you believe Nate Silver's thesis that individual states do tend to be effected by the national polling numbers. Even if the particulars of the polls in any one state have to be sorted out according to local conditions. But that doesn't mean that a boost in national polling is irrelevant to the Electoral College Map. Quite the contrary.

By Nate Silver's own analysis, if Clinton's national lead (that would be an average of polls like the RCP average) slips to 2% or less, then suddenly the possibility of a Trump victory (already at about 30% in FiveThirtyEight's latest modeling) becomes very real. At this point it is clear that a victory for Trump is a very real possibility.

Can Trump manage to be disciplined enough to pull it off? The only way to answer that is to see how he reacts when Hillary's campaign team, in tandem with a mainstream media panicked over his possible election - dig up some more unsavory stuff from The Donald's past. How will he handle it? If something cringeworthy appears and Trump once again feels the need to endlessly litigate the scandal, especially on Twitter, then Hillary should be able to pull off a fairly narrow victory, and we can enjoy a newly elected president dealing with an ongoing criminal probe.

The Russian connection has been attempted - but even the NYT had to admit that there seemed to be little evidence of direct Putin-Trump links. Could it be - as Jim Geraghty has suggested - that Trump honestly admires Putin despite having no real economic, (hidden debts to Russian banks), or other reason to do so? That sort of admiration for political strongmen might be a character issue on Trump's part, but it is not a shocking new scandal that will cause voters to move against him again. It's baked into the judgement of most voters, as far as their perception of him is concerned.

So will Trump stay on message and narrow the gap enough to endanger Hillary's firewall? A speech he gave in Valley Forge - how's that for a backdrop? - was praised by Chris Cillizza. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post. Who of course shed a few crocodile tears at the end of his article on how it was all far too late for Trump. But the speech was effective and did hammer Hillary on precisely her weaknesses: the failing status quo in Washington. Whether Obamacare or server scandals, or vanishing trustworthiness, he was focused and fairly devastating.

Is it - as Cillizza laments - too little, too late? In this campaign, 6 days is a long time. Hillary should worry about her firewall.

Posted by Keeley at November 2, 2016 7:02 PM
Comment #409438

Keeley, looking at the RCP battleground states I find…

Hillary down 5.4 in Wisconsin
Hillary down 3.4 in Pennsylvania
Hillary down 4.7 in Virginia
Hillary down 1.7 in Colorado
Hillary down 5.7 in Michigan
Hillary down 0.8 in New Hampshire

When reporting of the FBI’s impending indictment of Hillary today I suspect she will drop even further in the polls.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 3, 2016 4:34 PM
Comment #409440

Guess again.

Pollster.com rates HRC’s chances of winning at 98.6%, and the Senate at 70%. Nate Silver and the Huffpo composite give HRC a 91% chance of winning.

Posted by: phx8 at November 3, 2016 5:12 PM
Comment #409441

I believe that ever more Americans are becoming aware of the political Left attempting to convince us that the “One World Order” of yesteryear is actually a good idea.

John Kerry stated in a recent commencement address; Americans must prepare ourselves for a “border-less world”.

Hillary Clinton in 2013 said she dreams of a “common market with open trade and open borders,…”.

When questioned about this remark by the moderator at the last debate Hillary said she was referring to “energy”.

President Obama’s actions reveal his desire for open borders.

What does open borders mean for America and its citizens?

The best article I have read recently on this issue is by Edward J. Erler, professor emeritus of political science at California State University, San Bernardino which was adapted from a lecture he gave at Hillsdale College recently.

The article is long and detailed so I don’t expect many on WB to read it.

“But a world without borders is a world without citizens, and a world without citizens is a world without the rights and privileges that attach exclusively to citizenship.

Rights and liberties exist only in separate and independent nations; they are the exclusive preserve of the nation-state. Constitutional government only succeeds in the nation-state, where the just powers of government are derived from the consent of the governed.

By contrast, to see the globalist principle in practice, look at the European Union. The EU is not a constitutional government; it is an administrative state ruled by unelected bureaucrats.”


Posted by: Royal Flush at November 3, 2016 5:27 PM
Comment #409444

Contrats to the Cubs.

Just for grins;

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 3, 2016 5:45 PM
Comment #409445

ooops…had the bold text on and this didn’t post.

The Cubs came back from a 3-1 Cleveland series lead to clinch the title in Game 7, an outcome so statistically unlikely that at one point, odds-makers noted that Donald Trump had a better chance of winning the presidency than the Cubs did of landing the pennant.

AOL News

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 3, 2016 5:48 PM
Comment #409471

This is interesting. Is it true ? Who knows. Is it good for a warm fuzzy ? Absolutely ! http://endingthefed.com/breaking-a-counter-coup-to-the-clinton-attack-is-happening-now-fbi-quietly-releases-documents-via-julian-assange-and-wikileaks.html

Posted by: dbs at November 4, 2016 10:09 AM
Comment #409477


free exercise of religion is one of the privileges and immunities attached to citizenship

So, freedom of religion isn’t one of those unalienable rights discussed in the Declaration of Independence? It’s just a privilege granted by the government that can be suspended upon politicians’ whim?

Posted by: Warren Porter at November 4, 2016 11:15 AM
Comment #409501

Well Warren, I believe that unalienable rights come from our Creator.

If Professor Erler’s statement is confusing for you, spend some time studying his books.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 4, 2016 3:19 PM
Comment #409505

Don’t get your hopes up.

Baier fully walked back the claim that Hillary’s about to be indicted.

As for the rest? We’ll have to see.

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Comment #410146

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