Despite the Attacks, It's Still About Jobs

While Obama preps for a possible future gig as UN Secretary General, Harry Reid prepares legislation to require background checks for any purchase of pressure cookers, and Hillary blames the Islamic State on Trump, there is an interesting shift in polling recently.

Trump may be polling slightly better, or better, with Hispanics and Blacks than the conventional wisdom that he has nearly no support with either group. It's only a few recent polls. But Hillary is not doing nearly as well as Barack Obama in her lead with Latinos. And Trump is doing no worse than Romney. Romney, of course, did poorly with Latinos but Trump is perhaps attracting possibly 20% of Hispanic voters, or even a little more. There is indeed a conservative base of Latino voters - maybe 25% - who trend Republican. Will they turn out for Trump? Are they being discrete about their choices, given the climate in 2016? Especially among their friends and family in Hispanic communities across America.

And, of course, a USC/LA Times poll showed Trump with around 20% support amongst African Americans. No, it's not the most accurate and respected poll, but it's a reasonably serious poll. Is it an outlier that should be immediately ignored? Yes, if you're part of mainstream media. But despite it almost certainly exaggerating a Trump bounce with black voters, could it be signaling a shift in trend? Will Trump eventually get far more than 1 or 2% of the African American vote?

With the first debate not quite a week away, terrorism and national security will dominate, after the attacks in NYC, New Jersey, and Minnesota. But remember, jobs and the economy rank far higher in terms of what issues matter to most voters. How they react to a world where lone-wolf terrorism, or the more organized terrorist attacks in Paris last year, are a common feature of life is important.

To put the question in its most extreme form: will trade, globalization, and immigration be seen as conduits for fanatics to arrive in America and start killing? That's exactly the view that Obama is doing his best these days to shut down and condemn. And a world with far less trade is a world that hurts America - although not necessarily all Americans.

But there's a more long-lasting concern that exists alongside the ebb and flow of concern over the horrors of terrorism. And that is: will I have a job next month? Or next year? Will Trump's vision of managed trade and renewed industrialization - so criticized as unrealistic by so many economists - appeal to precisely African Americans and Hispanics? Despite the Wall Talk? Is his message gaining some adherents in those communities? Trump should keep Hispanic and Black voters in mind during the debates, even as he sticks to his standard policy planks.

Posted by Keeley at September 20, 2016 8:20 PM
Comment #407700

At present the race is pretty much a tie. Folks know the characteristics of both candidates. I believe the debates will be the deciding factor. That is, unless one candidate has one or more bad moments between now and Nov.

Hillary is at some disadvantage as she has to protect the President’s legacy.

Trump is at some disadvantage as he is likely to make a statement that sets off a firestorm among voters.

Both candidates need to come to the debates with an ‘October surprise’. That is, have some good dirt, or some currently unknown information about a person, charity, and so on - - -

If Hillary goes into the noise on policy she loses.

If Trump follows her into the noise he loses. Being the outsider, he has to keep his rhetoric on issues on a high level like, Hillary caused ISIS.

40% of political appointments made by Hillary went to big donors to the Clinton Foundation. Yes, we all know politics is a pay to play game but still looks bad in a debate scenario.

Hillary gets an advantage in Fla thru the 1M porto Ricans who have recently moved there.

Trump has to work the Clinton Foundation and Hillary’s emails into each of the 3 debates. If he can do that he will be seen as the winner in all the debates.

The smartest thing Trump has done is to pander to the minority vote.

The smartest thing Hillary has done is to convince the President, his wife and uncle Joe to campaign for her.

Will be the most widely viewed debates in history. One bad moment could change history. Super entertaining.

Posted by: roy ellis at September 21, 2016 12:58 PM
Comment #407702

The debates will be almost as entertaining as the Super Bowl Roy.

Hillary must have a good offense…and…a good defense since she has an extensive record as a politician and must defend Obama and his failures as well. She is vulnerable on domestic and foreign policy.

Trump must have a good offense but his defense is hardly important to most voters as he has no political baggage.

Hillary may argue that his political inexperience is important but then, many voters want a newcomer…a fresh political face, a candidate with no political IOU’s.

The Wild Card will be Hillary having a coughing spell or fainting.

Posted by: Royal Flush at September 21, 2016 3:21 PM
Comment #407704

The “wild card” will be some gutsy moderator forcing Trump to actually answer a question and holding him accountable on the truth.

Posted by: Rich at September 22, 2016 12:02 AM
Comment #407708

Likewise for Hillary, Rich.

Posted by: Rich KAPitan at September 22, 2016 9:14 AM
Comment #407714

Oh, right. No political baggage. First, even if he didn’t have any in January, he has plenty now. Second, if that were the case, why the doubleback on Birtherism? Third, since when does one have to be a politician at the time one does something stupid or bad to have political baggage?

The funny thing is that the Republicans here are increasingly focused on meta measures of political worthiness, trying to argue Trump’s worthiness for the office not from what he’s really done, nor from some real character trait, but instead out of perception. It’s just a load of BS, meant to mask the fact that Trump simply doesn’t have the ability to do the job. But I’m sure if he doesn’t, others will do it for him, and that’s the whole point. He’s just another sockpuppet for people who want power without having to put their faces forward to get it.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at September 22, 2016 2:13 PM
Comment #407715

Stephen, What makes Hillary so qualified for POTUS? By the way I think both parties screwed the pooch this election cycle since we have 2 S**THEADS to choose from.

Posted by: Rich KAPitan at September 22, 2016 2:21 PM
Comment #407716

Daugherty really needs to ask someone what “political baggage” means. He is embarrassing himself.

Posted by: Royal Flush at September 22, 2016 2:25 PM
Comment #407720

Your right there R.F. at least Trump doesn’t have the political baggage that Hildabeast does. How can he,, he’s never been in politics!

Posted by: Rich KAPitan at September 22, 2016 2:38 PM
Comment #407722

“Second, if that were the case, why the doubleback on Birtherism?”

For the same reason we got the “doubleback” on ‘super-predators,’ traditional marriage and the 2nd Amendment from Hillary - to dump some political baggage in hopes of scoring more votes.

Posted by: kctim at September 22, 2016 2:46 PM
Comment #407723

Who favors withdrawing the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade deal?

Who favors renegotiating the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and appointing trade negotiators to identify trade violations by foreign countries?

Who favors labeling China a currency manipulator and to bring trade cases against Beijing both in the U.S. and at the World Trade Organization?

Who favors using lawful presidential power to stop China in its illegal activities, including its theft of American trade secrets?

Which candidate for president has openly supported these positions?

Posted by: Royal Flush at September 22, 2016 5:37 PM
Comment #407724

I have found three bills Hillary Clinton sponsored hat became law. These laws were uncontroversial matters that passed by unanimous consent in the Senate and voice vote in the House and then were signed by President George W. Bush:

S. 1241: A bill to establish the Kate Mullany National Historic Site in the State of New York. Bush signed the bill Dec. 3, 2004.

S. 3613: A bill to name a post office the “Major George Quamo Post Office Building.” Bush signed the bill Oct. 6, 2006.

S. 3145: A bill to designate a highway in New York as the Timothy J. Russert highway. Bush signed the bill July 23, 2008.

What a record to run on.

The best guesstimate I can find is that Trump is responsible for creating 34,000 jobs.

Hmmm…three meaningless bills for the American public vs thousands of jobs for Americans.

Posted by: Royal Flush at September 22, 2016 6:09 PM
Comment #407741


You know, there’s more to being a Senator than being the sole sponsor of a bill that becomes law. HRC cosponsored 74 bills that became law and had uncredited influence on many others.

Posted by: Warren Porter at September 24, 2016 5:18 PM
Comment #408756

It is hard to overstate the level of lip administration transmitting from Hillary Clinton with respect to the latest birther dispute. With a true objective to involve eyes and brains from Clinton’s hanging overview numbers and disturbing prosperity matters, radicals in her fight and the media have been pushing an old “birther” conflict. A conflict they ensure began with Donald Trump.

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