Urban Bubbles and Wisconsin Troubles

Wisconsin right now is whatever you need it to be: exceptional, typical, a turning point, a stumbling block, prosperous and urban, hardworking and rural, fiscally conservative, common-sense conservative, and happy-yes-happy. If you are competing in the primaries, or voting, or just commenting.

The important point is: what will the Wisconsin primary mean going forward? For both the Democrat and Republican campaigns. Will Sanders prevail and keep Hillary edgy and angry? Will Cruz hand Trump a solid defeat and kick just out of reach of The Donald’s grasp, that magical number of delegates?

Wisconsinites seems to be proud of their state's exceptionalism, and rightly so. But how much of a bellwether does that then make the Badger State? For example, if Cruz does indeed win in Wisconsin and add a large majority of the state's GOP delegates to his tally, but then Trump wins heavily in New York. Where does the momentum then shift to?

Wisconsin is not a major fork in the road - stuck in the middle of a burnt Trump steak. It's a painful little nip at the Achilles heel of the front runner. One that will cause a short limping pause: just enough to keep him from reaching the finish line. And even then, with a surprisingly strong win in California - less and less likely with each week of course - Trump could somehow reach 1,237 by midnight June 7.

But yes, Wisconsin is all about denying Trump a first round win in Cleveland. And it's where the denying will take place that things get interesting.

Milwaukee and the South East corner of the state, do not like Trump. Much of the rest of the state does not seem to have that problem. Is there an anti-Trump Bubble brewing in Milwaukee?

The point of this slightly silly metaphor is that any bubble over prosperous and urban Milwaukee is not just about voters' views of Trump. Charles Murray has been talking a lot the last few years about a well-educated, high IQ elite that is wealthy, urban and disconnected from much of America. They live in a bubble and there's even a test you can take to see how connected you are to middle class and working class America.

When David Brooks whines in the NY Times about how he was "not inter-mingled" with the type of people he assumes are Trump supporters, there is a ridiculous disconnect going on. This in an age when you can check out your country cousin's Facebook page to see what he did last Saturday.

One would expect that the bubble over Milwaukee is nowhere near as thick as the one over Manhattan, so perhaps the Milwaukee bubble is a little easier to splash through on your way to and from Wausau, for example. Whether votes will splash through for Trump is another matter.

Yes. It is ironic. But Trump knows perfectly well that his supporters are a long way from his Manhattan penthouse - at the very heart of the thickest bubble on the planet perhaps, aside from D.C.They're a long way away. In every sense of the word.But both Trump and his supporters understand that perfectly. And that has much to do with Trump's blunt, businessman style that speaks to their concerns.

This bubble - the lack of understanding on the part of the elites over the real concerns of working voters - is the real divide in today's campaigns. In the GOP campaign, and also in the Democrat primaries as well. What will it take to pop all those prosperous urban bubbles just a little?

Posted by Keeley at April 5, 2016 2:34 PM
Comment #404091

As much as the media loved it, the results from the WI primary really won’t make that much difference. HRCV remains a lock for the Democratic nomination. Trump remains the most likely candidate for the GOP, either by reaching 1237 or by coming close. Cruz remains far behind, and after a possible win in the WY caucus resulting in a handful of delegates, the map moves into Trumps favor in a HUGE way.

Cruz retains one advantage. He will say absolutely anything if he thinks it will aid his cause. He will do anything- whether it is dirty campaigning, or selling out lock, stock, and barrel to the GOP establishment in exchange for their support. The man is utterly unscrupulous. But the problem for Lying Ted is that sometimes the lies get wrapped around his doughy neck. And all those disparaging comments by Cruz about “New York values” are about to come back and bite him.

Expect Trump to win big in NY, PA, MD, and NJ, along with other northeastern states. By the time its over, Lying Ted will not come close to Trump. His only hope is that Trump does not reach 1237; in that case, Cruz might be able to take immediate advantage of his dirty tricks and lies to steal the nomination. But it is not an advantage over the long run, because most Americans will recoil in revulsion at the idea of Lying Ted in the White House.

Posted by: phx8 at April 6, 2016 12:37 PM
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