A Late Start From Biden Would Still Worry Hillary

Right after Iowa and New Hampshire things go south. The contests are held in southern states where the Democratic vote is often dominated by black voters. That means that despite all the fuss and focus on immigration and the Hispanic vote that one presumes Clinton will largely be able to attract, the African-American vote is possibly a little more tricky and definitely a crucial factor in deciding who wins the Democratic nomination. Tricky because if Biden finally decides to run, he just may have Obama’s endorsement. That’s hardly a shocking prediction: Obama had to fight tooth and nail with both of the Clintons in 2008, and Biden has been a loyal VP for almost two presidential terms now. So if Biden runs, he almost certainly will have Obama’s blessing, so to speak.

Will Biden be able to to take advantage of a Barak endorsement? His role in the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act is being paraded across the media and will not make it easy for him to convince African-Americans that he is a candidate they should trust their votes with. Not if Black Lives Matter have their way, for example. One can imagine the theatrics they might engage in at a Joe Biden event.

But past polling suggests that the black vote tends to swing hard towards one candidate, coalescing around someone they feel will be responsive to their concerns. Is this still true in 2016? And if it is, could Biden convince African-Americans to vote heavily for him in the primaries? According to fivethirtyeight.com, he is running late. A statistical analysis shows he would be 139 days shy of Iowa, should he announce in mid-September. That's really late to start building endorsements and raising funds, but there is another factor at play: Hillary is raising more and more doubts among Democrats. She still has strong positives, but the feeling that she is no longer inevitable is growing week by week. And with Sanders to her left, and Joe Biden just to her right with a presidential endorsement in hand, Hillary would have reason to worry about any stumbles or scandals giving Joe the opening he needs to break clear. At the very least, a three way race would actually add some life to the Democratic contest. Right now, it's Sanders generating most of the excitement. Will that change soon?

Posted by Keeley at August 27, 2015 6:45 PM
Comments
Comment #397967

With Hillary’s problems, my guess would be that Blacks and Hispanics will not show up for Primary votes, in mass. The faithfulness of the uninformed masses would only go for the general election, not the primary. They are not concerned about the issues, they are only concerned about voting for a Democrat in the general election.

Don’t you find it odd that Obama has not endorsed Hillary, and she was the darling of the Democrat Party. Yet, he has held off his endorsement; but is it possible for the President to not his VP of 8 years?

Here is the problem for Hillary:

While Republicans have been test-driving attacks against Clinton for a year and a half, no other line of attack has broken through to this degree. The numbers in a new Quinnipiac University poll are striking: More than 3-in-5 voters, 61 percent, think Clinton isn’t honest and trustworthy. Overall, Clinton’s favorability ratings slipped to 39 percent — her lowest rating since Quinnipiac began polling on Clinton after she and her husband left the White House.

When voters were asked the first word that came to their mind about Clinton, the top three replies were indictments of her trustworthiness. The No. 1response was “liar,” followed by “dishonest” and “untrustworthy.” Overall, more than a third of poll respondents said their first thought about Clinton was some version of: She’s a liar.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/hillary-clinton-liar-factor-2016-213100#ixzz3k9cFvaUf

Posted by: Blaine at August 28, 2015 7:27 PM
Comment #397982

Hillary’s whole plan was to be “inevitable”. Her organization smothered all anticipated opposition, which is why there are no credible Democratic candidates who would not be eligible for Social Security.

If Biden enters, he breaks Hillary’s spell. She fears this. She is paranoid about this.

Posted by: C&J at August 28, 2015 9:14 PM
Comment #397988

17 candidates have declared themselves candidates for the GOP nomination. Five are running for the Democrats. All of those candidates have already made an announcement. All of the ones who were expected to declare, made their declaration. The last one to declare was Kasich, on July 21st. That was five weeks ago.

Hillary Clinton ran a strong campaign in 2008. After serving as Secretary of State, she had four years to put back together her supporters and donors. Most of the people activists and donors who are going to support a candidate have already declared their intention. No one has an organization even to close to what she brings to the table.

Here’s a concept: a person who does what she has done with her campaign is an incredibly competent planner, organizer, and strategist.

It would be extremely difficult for Biden to enter the race now and have any realistic expectation of winning. Not impossible. Just extremely difficult.

Remember all those stories about Elizabeth Warren running? Didn’t happen. Now there are all these stories about Biden, and some pretty elaborate fantasies about conflict between Obama, Biden, and Hillary. Think about it for two seconds. If Biden and Hillary run against each other, Obama will stay above the fray and endorse the winner. Easy-peasy. The sad fact is the GOP is facing a disaster in 2016, and is trying to console itself with silly daydreams about the Democrats collapsing because of internecine warfare or scandal.

This is how a party ends up with Donald Trump at the top of the polls- too many fantasies, silly daydreams, beliefs in conspiracy theories, and so on.

Posted by: phx8 at August 29, 2015 12:16 AM
Comment #397992

The unions have not endorsed Hillary yet; they are waiting to see who’s running. C&J are correct, Hillary thought her nomination was inevitable, she thought the nomination was hers. But she thought the same thing 8 years ago. Hillary would most certainly fear a Biden run. It all boils down to Obama is going to do what’s best for Obama. Will Biden be best for his legacy, or would Hillary? It’s that simple. Hillary is ambitious, and will try to outdo the Obama presidency; this would take away from Obama. Obama certainly doesn’t want to be forgotten by the presidency of a white woman. A goofy old white man, who would be considered a 3rd term Obama presidency, who would protect his legacy, is the most logical choice. Could you imagine the boasting from the left, that a Biden presidency is an Obama presidency.

Posted by: Blaine at August 29, 2015 10:33 AM
Comment #397993

Many unions will endorse Sanders.

Obama’s legacy will be unaffected by Clinton or Biden. Both represent an affirmation and extension of Obama’s presidency, but it is in the nature of things that whoever is the next president will develop their own legacies.

Posted by: phx8 at August 29, 2015 11:05 AM
Comment #397995

Once again ph, you completely missed the point. Biden is not ambitious and will preserve Obama’s legacy. Hillary IS ambitious and will seek to establish her own legacy, even if it means doing away with Obama’s. Do you honestly believe Hillary will be satisfied being called a 3rd term Obama?

Regarding the unions, if they will endorse Sanders, why haven’t they? Sanders would only get union support as a last resort. Sanders is a true anti-corporation socialist; Hillary and Biden on the other hand are anti-corporate in name only. Hillary and Biden depend on corporate donations, where Sanders will not.

Posted by: Blaine at August 29, 2015 11:52 AM
Comment #397996

Without corporations, there are no unions.

Posted by: Blaine at August 29, 2015 11:54 AM
Comment #398001

National Nurses United, an AFL-CIO union with 186,000 members, has already endorsed Sanders. A larger AFL-CIO union, the American Federation of Teachers, has endorsed Clinton.

Biden is not ambitious? He ran twice for president!

Posted by: phx8 at August 29, 2015 2:56 PM
Comment #398002

Tell me ph, do you have to work at being stupid, or does it just come naturally? Are you incapable of holding a objective discussion? When I speak of ambition, I’m not talking about running for office; I’m talking about the ambition to create a legacy.

If Biden was to become president, would he be ambitious enough to creat his own legacy, or would he protect Obama’s?

Now let’s look at Hillary and ask th the same question; would she be ambitious enough to create her own legacy or would she protect Obama’s?

Biden’s ambitions pale to the ambitions of Hillary. Obama is going to support the candidate who best serves Obama.

Posted by: Blaine at August 29, 2015 4:11 PM
Comment #398004

Blaine,
I don’t think it has occurred to you that Obama’s legacy is not finished. He will be the next person nominated to the Supreme Court by either a Clinton or Biden administration. Obama will not jeopardize that nomination by favoring one or the other in the primaries.

You’re not done with Obama just yet, not by a long shot.

Posted by: phx8 at August 29, 2015 4:37 PM
Comment #398007

You’re not done with Obama just yet, not by a long shot.
Posted by: phx8 at August 29, 2015 4:37 PM

Sheesh…that sounds more like a threat to me.

Posted by: Royal Flush at August 29, 2015 5:04 PM
Comment #398008

Can we say “lame duck”? Bush was lame duck with a democratic congress; but Obama is still setting the agenda. Only in the mind of a liberal. The only thing Obama will accomplish will be with exec pen. Which means nothing.

Could you imagine that idiot as a SC justice:

First; Michelle would leave him. I’m sure she can’t wait to get away from DC.
Secondly; he would actually be required to work, something he has never done.

Posted by: Blaine at August 29, 2015 5:26 PM
Comment #398009

Right on Blaine.

Texas has the oil and DC has the dipsticks.

Posted by: Royal Flush at August 29, 2015 5:34 PM
Comment #398011

Can’t you just picture this. An idiot in black robe and out on the golf course. He finishes the 18th hole the next day and brags about shooting a 204. Phx8 shot a 202. He did not even have a black robe. And their cadies were Pelosi and Schulz and without a cart. The males were riding the carts. That is called equality in the DNC circles.

Posted by: tom humes at August 29, 2015 6:28 PM
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