Sen. Paul on the GOP Candidate in 2016: How He Is Right and Wrong

Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky at the Republican Liberty Caucus of Texas this past Saturday proclaimed that it is time for a “libertarian moment.” And to that end that if the GOP nominates another “Chamber of Commerce Republican” it is doomed to fail in the 2016 presidential election. I must ask, how does Rand Paul intend to change who the party nominates when it is the people who decide and what exactly is a “Chamber of Commerce Republican”? Furthermore while libertarianism does have many appealing characteristics, it also has many that would make those who understand that the system can’t be easily changed shake their heads.


Since the departure of Rep. Ron Paul from the House, his son Sen. Paul has most visibly taken up the libertarian banner; this despite Rep. Justin Amash being far more libertarian than Paul. So far it would appear that Paul will compete in the 2016 GOP primary and already has strong support. Of assistance to him would be elements of libertarian thought which are spreading increasingly, primarily due to support among those under 30 of which I am. Paul is seen as a fresh voice in a party which is portrayed in the media as aging and growing disconnected with Americans. The same can be said though of the Democratic Party but in that case, the POTUS is not only disconnected from Americans but from reality.

The establishment GOP has attempted to marginalize or ignore libertarians which is unfortunate in the long-run. What the establishment GOP has failed to grasp is that its younger members don't view issues such as gay marriage as the principle issue that will determine the fate of the U.S. Increasingly, Republicans of this age group see issues like that as primarily about equality and the actions of the state in an area of which it has no business regulating. It's that libertarian focus on limiting government and equality which draws many along with its views on foreign policy.

Furthermore, the libertarians have beat out both the establishment and the Tea Party groups in opposing issues such as the NDAA and other highly questionable government actions. While the non-contributors who rail about why they can't bring their AR-15 into a Chucky Cheese filled with children for their own protection, it's the libertarians who are questioning the actions of the NSA. If amends aren't made by 2016, it wouldn't surprise me if we increasingly hear talk of a three way GOP civil war between the establishment, tea party, and libertarians.

Now does this mean Paul is right and we will have a libertarian candidate in 2016; most certainly not. A libertarian candidate has just as much chance of winning the presidency as a full blown tea party candidate which is to say no (unless situations so drastically change in this country for the worse over the next two years). But that isn't to say that we can't have a candidate who puts forth and holds true to issues of equality, government non-interference, limiting government (another thing the establishment doesn't understand, it's not just about cutting government spending), and personal responsibility. I rather hear a candidate speaking of those issues than supposed Islamic fundamentalists in the government or just bashing the Democrats and criticizing without delivering a single workable solution.

Now getting to the "Chamber of Commerce Republican," Paul is clearly talking about your typical, stolid, perhaps insipid establishment Republican. One must just look at the GOP presidential candidates over the past two decades, Dole, McCain, Romney, not exactly exciting, charismatic figures nor very original or delivering any truly groundbreaking solutions. On the other hand, let's look at the last GOP primary. If Romney and Huntsman can be considered the "Chamber of Commerce Republicans" than whom out of that group was truly electable. Paul, Santorum and Bachmann would have gone down in flames, Paul for his unworkable ideas, and the latter two for their bigoted, simplistic views. Meanwhile Gingrich and Perry I'm convinced would've shot themselves in the foot enough to make winning impossible.

So that raises another point, what type of candidate in the GOP is electable in 2016. I firmly believe a candidate who is a synthesis of the varied GOP factions. You can have a charismatic Republican who can craft an image of themselves as a uniter of the party and furthermore, as the leader the country needs as a whole. The GOP has to learn from its mistakes, what it's been doing wrong and what it needs to do. We can't disregard otherwise good candidates because we disagree with them on what is otherwise a social issue that has no financial bearing on my life. You can disagree with an issue but if the choice comes down to Candidate A who opposes it but has no plan for the future or Candidate B who doesn't make it a central issue but has a plan, I'm sure as hell going to vote for the latter.

We need candidates who honestly care about issues such as liberty and freedom but who are also realistic in what they can accomplish and to what extent the American people will support them in accomplishing their goals. To that end the GOP needs mature well groomed candidates, maybe not "Chamber of Commerce" board members but at least those who've attended meetings so to say. A winning 2016 candidate will be a synthesis of all these ideas and GOP groups. The only thing that can prevent this is if Republicans fail to dismiss the voting idea of everything or nothing when seeking to support a candidate.

Posted by SPBrooker at June 9, 2014 5:40 PM
Comments
Comment #379252

I say we put all the Republicans at the top and the Democrats at state and local levels (where they belong really at this point until they come up with a party). This guarantees nothing is ever going to happen or change. They can do what they want, say what they want, and at the end of the day—nuthin’ is goimg to get touched. Rand Paul at the top—fine.

Posted by: simpleheaded at June 10, 2014 10:26 AM
Comment #379253

The Federal Government is in too big to fail mode and there’s nothing Rand Paul can do but give a good speach against it. Same with the Tea Party folks. It’s going to take collaborators to at least cut the continuing resolution crap and make some mild course corrections. Either that or a big iceburg.

Around here the Tea Party candidates are trying to knock off Lindsey Graham so that a Democrat can get elected instead. They are also trying to kill a government project so that those funds can go to Ohio. Smart thinking.

I voted for more Democrats than Republicans two years ago and it looks like I’ll be doing the same this year. Elect me and I’ll go shut down government is not a great campaign promise if there’s no way to do shut it down.

Posted by: George in SC at June 10, 2014 10:39 AM
Comment #379255

SP,
Interesting ruminations. About two weeks ago, two pundits who usually disagree on an MSNBC show both predicted Rand Paul would pull ahead early in the primaries. The host was shocked. If Paul pulled ahead early, it would panic the Chamber of Commerce Republicans AND the socially conservative base. I think everyone, including the GOP, would ultimately be better off if Rand Paul pulled it off, but I will only believe it when I see it.

First, Rand Paul has two serious limitations: 1) he cannot put together an organization of good people, and 2) he lacks the temperament.

Paul’s organization is small, yet filled with horrendously incompetent people. It used to include a white supremacist blogger and an a guy who apparently had absolutely no idea plagiarism is unacceptable. An organization reflects its organizer. Paul does not know how to find, recruit, and convert good people to his cause. That has always been one of Obama’s great strengths, but curiously, it goes almost completely unrecognized. Give Paul another election cycle or two, and he may improve in this respect a great deal.

The problem with his temperament is that, when things go wrong- and sometimes things DO go wrong- he reacts poorly. He gets whiney and defensive and acts persecuted. This will NOT work in a national campaign. Eventually he may toughen up and become better at dealing with issues when things go wrong, but right now, he needs to do some serious soul searching.

Paul offers the GOP and conservatism a future that can appeal to younger people, be inclusive, and put forward a realistic foreign policy. Right now, those elements are completely lacking among conservatives. They have become increasingly doctrinaire and unwilling to compromise or adapt. Their agenda seems to be to oppose whatever Obama favors. Their campaign planks include Global Warming Denial and some awful bigotry directed at gays. For anyone not sure about this, see the latest Texas Republican Party platform. It is horrifying, and a guarantee no Texan Republican will ever get anywhere near the White House, including Senator Cruz.

Republicans seem to have absolutely no idea what to do with foreign policy. The NeoCons still have the most influence, but no one wants their agenda of foreign wars and mistreatment of good allies.

Paul will be able to adjust to the facts of Global Warming without much difficulty. What he will actually DO remains to be seen, but at least he is philosophically capable of coping with the facts. His political philosophy is also friendly towards pro-choice voters, and recognition of gay rights. He may not be as friendly towards other persecuted minorities, but almost anyone can do better than the current GOP. He may not be their yet in terms of these issues, but at least he is capable. It is in his wheel house if he will be brave enough to stand up in public for what he seems to believe.

The Chamber of Commerce Republicans wanted Christie. He destroyed himself with bad behavior as NJ Governor. Now they want Jeb Bush. Ain’t gonna happen. NO ONE other than his rich buddies wants another Bush in the White House.

Senator Rubio from FL should be the best bet, but he cannot get traction. Immigration reform was going to be his big achievement, and it fell flat on its face. The current GOP base hates Hispanics- except for Cubans, of course. Their attitude is that the rest can just ‘self-deport’, as Romney so eloquently phrased it. Rubio also came out in favor of Global Warming Denial. Bad choice. He has managed to avoid being too closely associated with the worst aspects of the GOP, such as the government shutdown, so he has at least enough political acumen to avoid some of the current Republican craziness.

2016 should be a political turning point for American politics. The GOP should have learned and adapted after the 2012 election, but they did not; instead, they hardened their stands and dug in their feet. The 2014 will let them continue to do that, in part because the electoral math will be so friendly in the Senate. But the exact opposite, times two, will be true in 2016. The electoral math will be hugely favorable to Democrats, and the decision makers in both parties know this.

Let’s see how long it takes the GOP and conservatism to adapt to a changing country. Rand Paul offers a great avenue for doing so.

Posted by: phx8 at June 10, 2014 11:53 AM
Comment #379256

The country is way to dependent for a libertarian or semi-libertarian to ever be elected.

My two cents:

Hillary wins in 2016, pulls the nation even further left and the country continues to be massively divided.
Republicans answer by moving further left, completing their transition in becoming what the Democratic Party used to be.

ALL legislation begins and ends with more government control.

Posted by: kctim at June 10, 2014 12:19 PM
Comment #379257

Well 6 years ago I voted for Hillary and firmly believe we would be better off now had we elected her. At least she will cut a deal.

Posted by: George in SC at June 10, 2014 1:13 PM
Comment #379258

George in SC,
My daughter favored Hillary. I voted for Obama. He was not as liberal as Hillary on social issues, but less hawkish on Iraq. As it turns out, Obama proved to be good at his word- his health reform preserved private insurers and state health exchanges, while Hillary would have pushed for Medicare-For-All. Obama also proved good on his word to wind down Iraq, and he is still in the process of winding down Afghanistan. He promised to shut down Gitmo and the GOP stopped him, but perhaps that can finally be done once Afghanistan is officially over. In some ways, Obama turned out to be more of a hawk than anyone expected, between killing Osama bin Laden, killing Khaddafi, continuing some Bush policies with NSA surveillance, prosecuting drone wars, and so on, but that is another topic…

kctim,
I do not think the country is so ‘dependent’ that a libertarian is unelectable. Young people would be very receptive to the libertarian message, especially on social issues and foreign policy, but it has to be presented consistently, and it cannot just be an excuse for letting corporations run rampant. A libertarian who promoted trust-busting, net neutrality, and taking about too-big-to-fail banks would have tremendous appeal.

It is not a long stretch from libertarianism to the liberalism of Elizabeth Warren.

Posted by: phx8 at June 10, 2014 1:25 PM
Comment #379265

The media will give us our choices. There’s no point in debating any one person. The media always decides who will be running. It always did, it always will. The only way an extraordinary candidate well get any lengthy exposure is if he gets murdered.
For instance:
DailyKos, Dailymail, Usatoday, ABCNews, Huffingtonpost, Gawker, Foxnews, CBSNews, MSN, NBCNews, among many others had much the same headline:

Murdered Mississippi mayoral candidate was beaten, burned, family says

Hmm! No gun? They say he received attention because he was gay, but he, in fact, received attention because he was dead.


Posted by: Weary Willie at June 10, 2014 7:23 PM
Comment #379291

Hillary will not run thank God.

I have a hard time dealing with Democrats, they are two things; 1: A throwback to 1970’s issues that no longer stand true and 2: Trying to please the Republicans to deflect their standpoints, et al talking-points by showing they aren’t as liberal as you think they are (they are mostly not-ready-for-prime-time-players).

I have a hard time with Republicans, they are getting more “liberal” due to press scrutiny, in talking points atleast, and secondly becoming a stereotype of what a Republican “should be” or adhere to (RINO). Not to mention, thirdly: wanting to destroy and erode all things diplomatic and/or democratic we hold as a vestige of our nation should they get in—but however “liberally” getting better at pulling it off.

Neither revolution is a great advent—Dems bore us and Conservatives make us nuts. The press at large atleast televised is too “bimbo” to ask the right questions and no one wants to be liberal media. Actually WTF is liberal media? Is it style? Is it somehow substance? Why can’t they all be Reuters or NPR and just do the dag-gum news? Is international news too much for conservatives? Is today’s news too much shine and glitz and ipod-inization? Whatever happened to journalists wanting to win awards in journalism with their news stories? Why do Republicans want just one “take” on the news rifely ommitting all other avenues of investigation that don’t meet with their agenda? Is that “liberal” media?
WTF is a Miley Cyrus and why do I have to hear about her? Republicans want me to hear about her—I don’t give a S***.

Posted by: simpleheaded at June 11, 2014 10:55 AM
Comment #379330

Looks like Iraq is going to fall to insurgeants. Is Obama the one to deal with the reallity that we could lose Iraq? Does he care? See this is what I’m talking about in having local color/local blokes running the nation. We went there captured a good part of the country and now it’s all falling to militias. Who picks up the phone? If we are off playing delegate and diplomat we miss the bigger game. The bigger game is that we are at war abroad.

They (Insurgeants) are all heading to Fallujah with a torrent of domino-styled topplings of newly-founded democratic cities in their wake. Is Obama going to do anything about it? Where’s Kerry and Rice? Are we going to lose this war to a group of nairdewell blokes swimming in a deeper end than they imagined? This is going quagmire fast and will be a swamp in no time. We may not ever get out of this mess. Forget congress this is a presidential call. Are we going to lose this to the “not-ready-for-prime-time-players”, Obama and his non-intellectual administration? Obama has polish and panache—heck he’s even dashing but is that what a president is in it’s entirity?

See when you have local color as an administration, guys who should be on a local rung instead of national, things are always on this community level introvertedly. We are going lose Fallujah and it will be our own fault for choosing Obama and his local F***tards as representation for the nation. We are losing this war fast.

Posted by: simpleheaded at June 12, 2014 10:26 AM
Comment #379331

He was elected with the promise he would end the war in Iraq. He didn’t say he was going to end it by winning it.

It will be the same in Afghanistan.

Posted by: Weary Willie at June 12, 2014 11:26 AM
Comment #379333

True (sigh).

Posted by: simpleheaded at June 12, 2014 12:19 PM
Comment #379338

The insurgency in Iraq is being fought by Sunnis- that includes ISIS fundamentalists, former secular Baathists, and defecting members of the government. They do not like the Maliki government. They never did. They perceive it be basically a Shiite deal. The Kurdish Pesh Merga is taking matters into its own hands in their region. Iran is supporting the Shia government of Maliki, possibly with troops.

Iraq was always heading for a three-way partition. Saddam Hussein forced it to remain united as a country. The US invaded and occupied it, and forced it to stay together, but democracy failed in a country that never really perceived itself as a country in the first place, but rather identified itself by ethnicity- Kurd, Shia, or Sunni.

We delayed the inevitable with military power, hundreds of billions of dollars, thousands of Americans killed and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis dead, and now the inevitable is happening anyway.

It’s just as well.

Posted by: phx8 at June 12, 2014 4:25 PM
Comment #379342

Now Harry Reid can get up in front of the camera and say the war is lost.

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