A silly little communist killed Kennedy

This the 50th anniversary of a day when a “silly little communist”* killed a president of the United States. Thousands of conspiracy theories were born. Some are plausible; most are stupid and all are wrong. Why do people fall for these sorts of ideas? It is because we think that great events must have great causes. We cannot believe that a great man like JFK could be killed for nothing. There has to be more. Often there is not.

I was trained as a historian and it is still one of my avocations. When I was younger and less experienced, I looked for - and found - recurring patterns in the past, ones that made sense of great events and maybe even offered the possibility of being able to predict them or at least foresee probabilities. I loved the big theories of history and would cheerfully debate the relative merits of Vico, Hegel, Toynbee or Oswald Spengler. I didn't know which one of them was closest to the truth, but I was sure that the truth was out there in a pattern we could understand. I don't believe that anymore. History has definite patterns because human nature remains similar over the centuries and people react to similar conditions in similar ways. Similar, not the same. It is the similarity that lets us infer patterns and meaning that just is not there. It is like finding animal shapes in clouds or faces in the mountains of the moon. There is a lot of contingency and a really strong dose of random chance.

I have been close to events written up by journalists and historians. Sometimes I even did some of those things myself. Nothing really big, mind you, but enough to be "history." I am usually surprised by the write up. Most things read better than they were lived. The stories are better when someone writes it. Of course, it is very possible that the person taking the action is unaware of the larger context and maybe even unaware of his own motives, but this still does not mean that the pattern sticks. The test of any scientific theory is its predictive value. History is not science.

History like all human systems, runs on a variable mix of uncertainty, risk, circumstance and choice. And sometimes it just doesn't make sense. The stories are more plausible than the realities.

Human systems are complex. One of the features of complexity is that is not "normal" int the statistical sense. Small events or players can have very large effects, while very large events or player can make little or no difference at all. We tend not to accept this reality, even when we are repeatedly confronted by it. So we write stories to explain it away. Our ancestors produced myths and gods; we go in for aliens and conspiracy theories to explain what we find unacceptable.

I have been watching a show called "The Big Bang Theory." It is just a TV show, but a recent episode carried a profound truth. One of the lead characters, Sheldon, showed "Raiders of the Lost Ark" to his girlfriend. She was unimpressed and informed him that nothing Indiana Jones did had any effect on the outcome. If Indiana had never been born, the Nazis would have found the Ark, tried to open it and all been killed by the spirits within. What happened with Indy's strenuous and heroic efforts would have happened without them.

The truth is that a silly little communist killed Kennedy for his own weird reasons having to do loosely with Kennedy's success in fighting communism. There was no deeper meaning. There were lots of other things swirling around in the society, but they had no effect. The rest are just tales, told by idiots, full of sound and fury signifying nothing.

In these tales, big important things are not changed by little ones. In these tales there are no coincidences or contingencies. Randomness and uncertainty are replaced by intelligent design, sometimes good and sometimes bad, but always there. These stories always make sense. Reality often does not.

* "He didn't even have the satisfaction of being killed for civil rights. it had to be some silly little Communist." - Jackie Kennedy

Posted by Christine & John at November 22, 2013 6:30 PM
Comment #374545

As an American, a veteran, and as one who loves freedom and liberty I salute our fallen president…John F. Kennedy.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 22, 2013 7:26 PM
Comment #374557

I remember, as a little boy, watching the Kennedy funeral on my Dad’s great big, little 12”, black and white, tv. I didn’t really understand the enormity of it all. I remember always the little kid saluting as the coffin passed.

What I do remember more vividly is what came after JFK’s death. The Vietnam war and all it’s gruesomeness on tv, LBJ’s guns and butter debate, Nixon’s downfall, price freezes, Carter’s malaise, unemployment, inflation, Reagan’s brief pride of country accompanied by partisan, divided government and constant bickering between parties, thirty years of terrorism, perpetual war, crisis after crisis after crisis.

It seems like something snapped when JFK was assassinated. Something happened to our government and it wasn’t a good thing. Some can say he was one person and one person doesn’t make the Presidency, but his death certainly turned out to be a turning point for this country.

Opinion: Assassination started liberalism’s decline

“He didn’t even have the satisfaction of being killed for civil rights. It’s — it had to be some silly little Communist.”
Jacqueline Kennedy, Nov. 22, 1963
The transformation of a murder by a marginal man into a killing by a sick culture began instantly — before Kennedy was buried. The afternoon of the assassination, Chief Justice Earl Warren ascribed Kennedy’s “martyrdom” to “the hatred and bitterness that has been injected into the life of our nation by bigots.” The next day, James Reston, the New York Times luminary, wrote in a front-page story that Kennedy was a victim of a “streak of violence in the American character,” but especially of “the violence of the extremists on the right.”
Under Kennedy, liberalism began to become more stylistic than programmatic. After him — especially after his successor, Lyndon Johnson, a child of the New Deal, drove to enactment the Civil Rights Acts, Medicare and Medicaid — liberalism became less concerned with material well-being than with lifestyle, and cultural issues such as feminism, abortion and sexual freedom.
How JFK’s assassination changed American politics
Americans’ trust in institutions and leaders has occasionally returned toward the heights it reached in the two decades before Kennedy’s death, primarily in periods of apparent peace and prosperity during the Reagan and Clinton presidencies. But the default mode seems to be distrust. To an unnerving extent, America is still living in the wake of the murder of John F. Kennedy.
Posted by: Weary Willie at November 23, 2013 6:50 PM
Comment #374610

Very often, conspiracy theory doesn’t deal simply with the matter at hand, it deals with other things that went wrong (or which are perceived to have gone wrong) after the fact.

In the case of Kennedy, there’s a period after Kennedy’s death where a generation of Americans loses their innocence, where corruption seems to overcome idealism. That’s part of the point of that rather transparent “we LOVE JFK” sort of thing that Republicans do nowadays despite strong differences on policy. They want to appeal to JFK’s supposedly less corrupt form of Liberalism. Well, getting back to the CT, many Americans see all the unlikely details, and not trained in ballistics or anything, they can’t process it all, so they go for a story in which he is the victim of those corrupting forces, of the mob, of the military industrial complex… I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Vietnam figures strongly in Oliver Stone’s particular narrative.

Unfortunately, this mass of conspiratorial thinking is something Republicans have come to fall for on a regular basis. They think everybody’s out to get them. Every group you can think of is pitched as a threat to the United States. The Welfare Junkies want to bankrupt us. The environmentalists want to kill the economy. The scientists want to peddle junk science for their own advancement. The academics want to corrupt our children with lies and preposterous theories. The Liberals want to get our country invaded and taken over, but not before they’re going to go in and get all our guns. Clinton becomes a Mayberry Machiavellian who kills people left and right to remain in power. Two Congressmen whose names are on a law become the scapegoat for the whole financial collapse, along with a couple of organizations that are conveniently governmental in origin. And Obama? He’s anything and everything you can throw against the wall.

I tend to see these conspiracy theories as lacking. I find it easy to believe that corporations have gotten used to thinking that doing things in ways that make them richer is what’s best. So, people get told that all environmentalists want to kill business. That serves them better than admitting that most simply want to constrain just certain behaviors, only causing economic harm when there’s no other choice. People get told that a couple of Congressmen, ending the practice of Redlining, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s government origins are to blame, because the big financial companies want to eliminate their rival in the secondary markets, want to keep on playing the treacherous (but profitable) waters of the derivatives market, and that blaming big government and regulation in general is a better alternative, profits and politics-wise, to admitting that they largely got what they wanted and were doing what they wanted when things got wrecked.

The problem with all this, is that despite the benefits it gives to politicians, Conspiracy theories tend to lead to false explanations, and where they do not, their improper lines of reasoning undermine the proper discovery of further truth.

That’s part of why I opposed 9/11 trutherism. Folks latched onto that because they perceived that Bush used 9/11 as a pretext for an invasion he wanted to do in Iraq, among the other elements of the War on Terror. What they might not realize is that Conspiracy Theory might be operating within the Bush Administration itself, with Laurie Mylroie’s belief that al-Qaeda was a false flag for Iraq’s intelligence agency getting pushed within their ranks.

This mode of thinking distorts, rather than clarifies our perspective on reality, and if we’re not careful, everybody will have one of these insular perspective, and nobody will be able to find the common ground that we not only need for our legislatures to operate, but our society to operate as well. We can’t afford to be so eager to replace solid thinking with flattering narrative. It’s too easy to get manipulated by people with pre-packaged narratives. We got to break those machines down and see what’s really running under the hood of their logic.

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