February 02, 2010
Spending Matters
Deficits matter, but total spending may matter even more. Anyway, Obama will give us both with absolutely no end in sight. It is a truly astonishing situation, so big, ironically, that we almost cannot see it for the problem it is. If President Obama’s proposals become law spending will have increased by 29% since 2008.
The Democrats missed the boat. They had hoped to act fast enough to enact a massive expansion of Federal power before the American people noticed the big run up of debts and/or when they could still blame it on Bush. But the Democratic bandwagon got a couple of flat tires and may be on the way to careening into the ditch. No matter if we like the Tea Party people or not, it is clear that it was their opposition slowed the juggernaut, perhaps enough to stop it and make it turn in a more moderate direction.
The President is still trying to play the fear/blame game. He corrected stated that Our economy has lost 7 million jobs over the last two years, tactfully leaving out that the vast majority of those jobs were lost since he was elected president and all of them were lost since the Democrats took over Congress. These tactics worked well last year. They don’t work nearly as well now and they will not work at all within a few months.
Let’s return to deficits. It is better if the money the Federal government is not borrowed, but what really counts is the size of the spending. It is like my favorite fat guy eating donuts. It is better if he doesn’t have to borrow the money to buy them, but it is the donut eating, not the borrowing that is at the source of his problem. Federal spending jumped to 25.4% this year, up from 21% last year, which itself is slightly higher than the 40 year average. President Obama promised to “cut” this to around 23%.
So get this straight. Even IF the President is telling the truth about his intentions and even IF he can carry out his plans, the Federal government will still spend 2% more of GDP than it has for the last 40 years, which means that it will have grown 10% above the long term average. And this is the optimistic scenario. Even if the Democrats can cover this higher spending with massive new taxes, it is still a big rise.
Luckily, the American people have caught onto this trick. We didn’t give President Obama a mandate for this much change that we cannot believe in. He needs the discipline that a divided government gave to an equally arrogant Bill Clinton.
Posted by Christine & John at February 2, 2010 08:12 PMIs this the weg site for ‘The Onion’? Wow, you guys are hilarious! Keep up the good work.
Posted by: phx8 at February 2, 2010 09:47 PMPhx8
Let’s see how funny it is in November.
Posted by: Christine at February 2, 2010 10:42 PMC%J
Yes indeed,BHO is having to deal with the Republican Recession and so are the American people. The stimulus is a major expense. Every other G7 country also found it necessary to provide a stimulus package also.We have two wars,winding down, but still expensive. This administartion does not try to hide the expense like the last one.
Deficits matter in that they can soak up capital that might otherwise go into production. In an economic situation like what we are in,they are less significant. The amount of government borrowing has been more than offset by the decrease in private borrowing.
Its not optimum but in the economic climate we are in there is no other institution that is able to supply a large enough demand to have a desireable effect on the economy.No, more tax cuts for rich people won’t do that. We tried that,remember?Pushing for curtailment is pushing for economic failure just like 1937 when FDR bent to political pressure and scaled back the New Deal with disasterious consequences.Stay the course.
Posted by: bills at February 2, 2010 10:59 PM
I love how it is the ‘republican recession’ when the Democrats were controlling congress when it started and the cause pushed by democrats (wrongly) was pushed into law by democrats…
It just makes it easier to identify those who are interested in party over principle.
Posted by: Rhinehold at February 2, 2010 11:14 PMRhinehold,
And those who ignore reality, are also easy to identify.
Posted by: gergle at February 2, 2010 11:56 PMWhich ‘reality’ am I ignoring, bills? The one that shows that every time the marginal tax rates have been lowered, overall revenues to the federal government have increased?
I am not ignoring that fact, perhaps it is you who is doing that because they have something against people who have made more than they have?
Posted by: Rhinehold at February 3, 2010 01:24 AMBTW, FDR never ‘scaled back the New Deal’, that’s some revisionist history there… He did suffer defeat because those programs were unconstitutional, until he just threatened to pack the court. A move that almost cost him a 3rd term, until war broke out in Europe and THEN he made his reputation, not for what he did in the 30s…
Posted by: Rhinehold at February 3, 2010 01:25 AMOh, and a collection of articles backing the facts against your fantasy…
http://www.heritage.org/research/features/budgetChartbook/Taxes-and-Tax-Rates.aspx
Posted by: Rhinehold at February 3, 2010 01:26 AMRhinehold,
A. I’m not Bills
B. Which article do you wish to debate? Or is this spaghetti debate (throw everything at the wall to see which one sticks)
C. Are we discussing the fantasy about the cause of the recession, or which party avered for deregulation hardest?
Posted by: gergle at February 3, 2010 02:44 AMRH
The heritage foundation is a propaganda mill dressed up like a think tank.It must be tiresome to have to constantly seek out nonsense spin when reality threatens to undermine your religious beliefs,sort of like those that believe fossils are just Gods way of testing their faith.There is no point is argueing religion.
C5J
Has not the GDP gone down,become smaller, duringthe recession? The need for economic recovery spending and a diminished GDP point to a fairly remarkable attempt to hold the level of spending down. There has been some good moves on the spending side, the cancellation of hugely expensive military programs of dubious utility, seeking long term savings in the student loan program(as you demonstrated) etc. There is more to be done,of course. Do we really need 500 or so military bases all over the world,for example.Now if we can just get a handle on medical cost by implementing the congressional HC reform things will look very good indeed.
I worry about the big increase in the size of government. As I wrote, deficits are bad, but the spending is the real danger.
I do not believe President Obama or the Democrats when they say that this is a temporary response to a recession. As Rahm Emanuel said, they don’t want to waste a crisis.
What what do they want to use this crisis to accomplish? They want a bigger and more intrusive government - permanently.
Bills
The health care bills do NOT address cost. This is another example of increased spending. Democrats say that they will pay for it with increased taxes and fees. But the spending goes up. AND I doubt that they will be able to get their higher taxes and fees.
Re student loans, I think it may make sense to let the USG do it directly, but I am not sure. Government tends to increase costs and lessen efficiency. You have to balance how much government will screw up and rip off versus how much private guys will rip off. But the basic problem is government. When people are getting or spending government money, they tend to be less interested in saving and more interested in just growing programs.
Re Heritage - they have a definite bias, as do all organizations. But you have to look at their arguments and evidence. I found that Heritage does good research.
BTW - you know that Fox is the most trusted name in news. It beats CNN and the others and even many liberals say so. It is because they feature both sides even if they have a bias.
Posted by: Christine at February 3, 2010 07:27 AM“BTW - you know that Fox is the most trusted name in news. It beats CNN and the others and even many liberals say so. It is because they feature both sides even if they have a bias.”
So when Fox News cut away from the shellacking Obama was giving Republicans last Friday, it was because it was no longer news, or was it because he made the Republicans present look petty?
Rocky
Christine I thought Faux news was the most trusted name in news because the skirts are shorter than republican memories.
Posted by: j2t2 at February 3, 2010 08:52 AMThe only ones that could be offended by that statement are Fox fans; and it was meant to do just that.
The R’s are big on political correctness now. Sarah P wants Rahm fired for using the R word. Every kid who grew up in his generation used that word constantly.
Posted by: Schwamp at February 3, 2010 09:23 AMLinda if you think the statement is sexist and offensive you should watch Faux news. The statement is simply an accurate reflection of the facts. But don’t take my word for it compare it to the other news stations.
http://www.ihatethemedia.com/fox-news-anchor-babes-short-skirts-video-photo
That being said this humble messenger begs your forgiveness if I have offended your sensibilities by not choosing a better way of expressing this information.
Posted by: j2t2 at February 3, 2010 11:35 AMThis is a tad off-topic but in case it is slipping by under your radar take note:
http://www.infowars.com/u-s-agrees-to-timetable-for-un-gun-ban/
Sec of State Clinton just signed this agreement with the UN - how enforceable it will be remains to be seen. Strongly suggest Left/Right/Center all read this article.
Posted by: Kathryn at February 3, 2010 12:24 PMC+J unfortunately subscribe to the clean slate theory of political blame.
There’s a name for this: The Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy. Essentially: Because it happened after Obama was elected, or after the Democrats got into Congress, it happened because of those events.
The job losses can be traced to a widespread failure of credit. The widespread failure of credit can be traced to policies that allowed financial companies to essentially make up a huge part of what their balance sheets were worth from dodgy loans on overinflated homes.
And that, dear C+J, was already a house of cards collapsing before the Democrats got into office. It just took that long for the F-up to unfold, and for the Bush Administration to finally let the straw that broke the camel’s back, Lehman Brothers, collapse.
More to the point, the Republicans have never given the Democrats the freedom to really redefine policy enough for there to be something to blame them for. You can’t tie people’s hands behind their backs and then scapegoat them for your own handiwork.
Obama inherited most of the deficits and job losses, and the policies he made to combat them did not even start to come into effect until March or April. When the Middle Class Tax cuts, one of the first stimulus benefits to begin, came into play in April, the unemployment rate was already 8.9%. Contrast that with a 5% unemployment rate the year before. So, for the sake of 1.2% increase in unemployment, you blame him for 3.9% that essentially happened before he could actually do something about it. Remember, Obama had no authority before he was inaugurated, so the date of his election is irrelevant to what he’s responsible for.
The financial crisis was the result of years of breakdowns that compounded each other. It’s simple, and perhaps intuitive to blame those currently in charge, but if you really want to get anywhere, you have to look at the actual events to find where responsibility truly lies.
The Republicans are the ones who championed the freeing up of financial institutions. At the very least, their doctrines need to be changed to acknowledge what happened, and the need to reinstate the protections that once prevented events from this from happening.
It is one thing to tend towards a certain policy angle, to want businesses to regulate themselves more, in accordance to market feedback. It is quite another to insist on doing this even when there is a failure of these policies to work as desired. We must not disregard the times when our beliefs do not hold up to the tests of actual experience.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at February 3, 2010 01:39 PM“you know Fox News is the most trusted name in news.”
Fox news has a weekly average viewership of 2.8 million, less than one percent of the population. O’Reilly has the largest average, 3.3 million.
“It is because they feature both sides even if they have a bias.”
Hannity’s average viewership went up after the liberal co-host Coombs was fired. Those who watch Fox news would prefer pure bias rather than faked unbiased opinion.
Many of those who think fox is the most trusted name think so because fox says so.
All cable news networks combined have a average weekly viewership of about two percent of the population.
When put into perspective, a rather abysmal number of Americans think that the cable news networks are actually news programing.
Posted by: jlw at February 3, 2010 01:42 PM
The rhetoric is the same, the actors have switched positions.
Clinton is to blame for 911/Bush is to blame for 911. Clinton caused the recession/Bush caused the recession.
The facts are the same as well.
The government is to blame for 911, for the housing market bubble and the interest rate pin that busted it, all the recessions, all the deficits and all the debt.
Management is where the buck stops for all problems.
When both political parties agree on policy, it makes no difference who wrote the policy.
Since Reagan, both parties have legislated center-right to far right. Since reganing control of the government, the Democrats have tried to legislate from the center-right and the Republicans are holding out for a more far right approach.
Posted by: jlw at February 3, 2010 02:17 PMHere is a poll of over 2,000 self-identified Republicans, conducted by a liberal web site. Please remember, this is not a cut and paste from the Onion.
Question
Yes No Not Sure
Should Barack Obama be impeached?
39 32 29
Do you believe Barack Obama was born in the United States?
42 36 22
Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist?
63 21 16
D you believe Barack Obama wants the terrorists to win?
24 43 33
Do you believe ACORN stole the 2008 election?
21 24 55
Do you believe Sarah Palin is more qualified to be president than Barack Obama?
53 14 33
Do you believe Barack Obama is a racist who hates white people?
31 36 33
Do you believe your state should secede from the United States?
23 58 19
Should openly gay men and women be allowed to teach in public schools?
8 73 19
Should contraceptive use be outlawed?
31 56 13
Do you believe the birth control pill is abortion?
34 48 18
The GOP consists of a lot of crazy people. Seriously. The only thing as crazy as those who are sure Obama is a socialist, not an American citizen, and so on, is the others who are ‘not sure.’ Like, maybe he is, maybe not. Could be. Ohmigosh. Is it any wonder articles like this one the Red Column can give such a bizarre take on the current state of the economy? It’s as if the GOP and the Teabaggers stepped into a time tunnel ini January 2001, and came out in January 2009. Amazing AND weird. What would these Republicans do if ever allowed back into power?
Well, I see who Glen Beck’s biggest fans are. Christine and John. Not even worth the effort to argue with them.
Posted by: Seatech1 at February 3, 2010 05:01 PMChristine,
Addressing the recession requires spending. It’s not just Obama that thinks so, Bush thought so too. The plan for the stimulus really came from Bush. Really.
All of Obama’s platforms: healthcare costs, energy issues, jobs, these were the same things Republicans ran on. The healthcare plan in particular was very close to Romney proposed.
In short, I am entirely puzzled as to why you would be against any of this. You say you want jobs, you say you want tax cuts, but you also say you don’t want the government to spend. How can that happen?
I don’t get the anger. I don’t get the resistance. Christine, do you think it may even be possible that Obama is what he says he is: a moderate looking to create bi-partisan legislation with Republicans?
Posted by: Max at February 3, 2010 05:05 PM“Christine, do you think it may even be possible that Obama is what he says he is: a moderate looking to create bi-partisan legislation with Republicans?”
You hit it on the head Max. A politician with genuine concern for the problems at hand. Can you imagine the damage it would cause the GOP if the people were to figure out that not all politicians are absent any perception of accountability and social responsibility. Can you imagine the damage caused if their supporting constituents were to realize that working with the opposition party is actually possible and might even be a healthy approach to doing the nations business. Can you imagine the chaos and confusion that would be created after all these years of conditioning right wingers to believe that their way is the only way and that liberal thinking is the product of the anti Christ? I am sorry Max, but I am afraid that any sort of bipartisan legislation is out of the question. It would just be too damaging to the conservative philosophy.
Posted by: RickIl at February 3, 2010 06:53 PMSec of State Clinton just signed this agreement with the UN - how enforceable it will be remains to be seen. Strongly suggest Left/Right/Center all read this article
I will investigate if this is true or not, I am suspecting from the source that it isn’t exactly as advertised…
However, it really doesn’t matter for a couple of reasons.
First, the congress has to pass all treaties. Hillary signing something is irrelevant and has no basis in law.
Second, any treaty that violates the US Constitution is, by definition, Unconstitutional and therefore null and void. Specifically, if the US were to agree to a treaty that banned individual ownership of guns it would not be worth the paper it was printed on.
Hope that helps.
Posted by: Rhinehold at February 3, 2010 10:25 PMChristine,
Wait a minute. Are you saying the poll is ‘hateful’ because you dislike the results? The results are consistent with other polls on stands taken by the GOP, and they are consistent with the positions advocated by Limbuagh, Hannity, and others. I caught a few minutes of Limbaugh today, and he pounded the table about how the country will be doomed because Obama is a socialist. Or do you dislike the source of the poll? Because that’s another matter entirely. O’Reilly detests Daily Kos, and that’s fine.
I don’t know how many conspiracy theorists believe 9/11 was a plot hatched by Bush, but it is silly, and even Daily Kos bans those conspiracy articles from its site, which is saying a lot, considering.
When it comes to the national debt, 90% of what we have was racked up in three administrations: Reagan, Bush, and Bush. No one likes the size of the debt. It’s frightening. But to blame Obama, who has added to the national debt with deficit spending in order to avoid another depression, is absurd.
I say again, no one likes the national debt or deficit spending. And people in jail want out, too. The current deficit spending is the best of a series of bad choices: debt, or economic depression?
If it works, the next step in saving the economy will be to create jobs. Nothing that has been done will matter if we stabilize the economy without job creation.
For the GOP to aggressively advocate obliviousness about the nature of the economy’s problems, and ignore the point of deficit spending, is a recipe for national disaster.
Posted by: phx8 at February 4, 2010 01:46 AMPhx8
The poll is hateful because the results are cooked. Kos made it come out in a way that increases divisions. I agree that the conspiracy ideas about 9/11 are stupid, but that is why I don’t attribute them to Democrats, but I can think of ways to make a poll say that.
Re Debt - If you look at the numbers and the spending, there is a big spike this year and it will continue.
You can blame others if you want, but the problem now belongs to Obama. What will he do? He doesn’t seem to be making real plans to spend less. ON the contrary.
We disagree about the need to spend more now on technical reasons. I believe it was needful to prop up the system, but now that the system is propped, more is not called for.
The difference between life saving medicine and deadly poison is often in the dosage. The medicine was needed. More will be poison.
Posted by: Christine at February 4, 2010 07:32 AMChristine, Of course you know there is a bit more to the story than just saying that Reid and Pelosi shut the repubs out. They were initially invited in and encouraged to participate. They did go along for a short time. But at some point they decided that it would be more advantageous to their selfish cause to take an extremist opposition approach to most all things they might label as liberal in concept. Basically, meaning most all democrat propositions. Their childlike antics was determined to be nothing more than a detriment to doing the nations business. Like school children they were asked to go sit in the corner so the more responsible children could actually pursue the business at hand without having to deal with silly, obstructive and unnecessarily destructive school yard antics. At the same time they refuse to acknowledge any responsibility for ushering in the events that led to the current state of this nation. In essence they have chosen a path of denial and obstruction as opposed to one of participation in the legislative process. They are negligent in their duties to the people of this nation. But then I guess maybe in their own demented way they think that somehow they are being responsible to a culture of liberal hate that they have worked so hard at mentoring for so long now.
Posted by: RickIl at February 4, 2010 09:16 AMKathryn,
The Obama administration did indeed support a UN resolution to study the feasibility of a treaty to control international trafficking in conventional arms. However, according to FactCheck, the Obama administration only supported the proposed study upon insertion of the following clause in the resolution: UN General Assembly Resolution A/C.1/64/L.38/Rev.1, Oct. 28: “…Acknowledging also the right of States to regulate internal transfers of arms and national ownership, including through national constitutional protections on private ownership, exclusively within their territory…” FactCheck also points out, as did Rheinhold, that the US Constitution would trump an international treaty in conflict with its provisions.
Posted by: Rich at February 4, 2010 11:02 AM
Two wars, two TARP bills, MMA Medicare expansion biggest in its history that’ll cost over half a trillion by 2015, stupid tax rebates by Bush, nationalized the banks, did nothing for jobs, did nothing to control health care spending, total foreign policy failures all around (including Syria), huddled around K Street lobbyists to get anything put in by Obama defeated and made it look like they were being partisan.
Does the GOP think the American people are that stupid and have that much of a short term memory?
What exactly is a “fiscal conservative” anyway? Reagan, and both Bush’s left deficits as they left office. Who didn’t? OH RIGHT CLINTON.
Last time I checked the Repubs only care about a bill if it’s going to raise them some campaign financing, otherwise why bother?
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