November 23, 2009
End of the Hispanic Tide
There is reason to believe that the pause in Hispanic immigration to the U.S. is the beginning of a trend and that nativist fears of Latinization of the U.S. may have been overblown. Like the German immigration wave that crested a century ago, its power is spent, even if it continues for a while because of demographic inertia. BTW – look at this map to see the continuing influence of our largest minority group.
We have been here before. The last great waves of immigration hit our shores a century ago. A century ago, in 1910, 14.8% of our population was foreign born (John’s grandparents among them, BTW), but it was only today it is only around 12.5% and declining. Immigrants have long been a part of the American scene. They have long assimilated into American culture and it has long been feared that they wouldn’t.
One of the things that has hindered Hispanic assimilation has been the continued refreshing of the group by new immigration. (This is also nothing new. The same thing was going on with Germans a century ago. The first English only law was enacted in 1920 in Nebraska. It was aimed at the Germans. )
This is also changing, as populations in the source countries stabilize, economies grow relative to the U.S. providing more domestic opportunities and labor shortages develop around the world to siphon off potential immigrants. So just as the sons and daughters of the massive German and Eastern European immigrations became firmly American, sometimes maintain tenuous links with their communities usually amounting only to a few folk dances, some food preferences and buttons and bumper stickers that say things like “Kiss me, I am Polish/Italian/Serbian" etc, so shall it be with Hispanics.
Mexico’s growth rate has dropped like a stone. And that country already reached the zero population growth level of fertility a couple years ago. We will still see growth because of the inertia of generations already born, but to use the metaphor again, the wave has crested. This is happening all over Latin America. In fact, population growth is coming down worldwide. Even places like China have reached their peak labor force and may face labor shortages in the not too distant future.
How will American politics change as the percentages of foreign born American drops back down to mid-century levels, or at very least the sources of immigrants becoming more diversified? The phenomenal growth of the Hispanic population has been both an irritant and an elixir in American politics. We have assumed that it has no way to go up; what happens when it begins to go down? Will Hispanics behave like earlier ethnic waves, if so which? Poles, Jews & Italians still have particular voting habits even into their third generations, but the patterns are not the same as those of their immigrant ancestors. Becoming American helps you see things differently. We will all need to change our paradigms.
Christine and John,
It has been commented several times here at WB before that when the American economy deteriorated, illegal immigration would drop off significantly.
This is not an event Americans should be taking any solace or reprieve from. The unattended illegal immigration problem was a sign of our high quality and broad middle class lifestyle and robust economy. The fact that illegal immigration has dropped off in the absence of secure borders, is not a good sign, at all.
Posted by: David R. Remer at November 24, 2009 08:52 AMpropitiation-
So you’re all in favor of keeping the economy in crap condition so we can avoid attracting illegals with our prosperity?
Good Plan. Personally, though, I prefer improving internal enforcement. That way, we can actually enjoy our security.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 24, 2009 09:59 AMpropitiation,
illegals don’t receive those benefits. In fact, they can pay into SS but never receive. You’re comments are favoring intolerance over truth. And you are the self identified true christian among us all.
Propitiation offered the following ignorant comment: “Sorry, we will have to wait at least 3 more years for “internal enforcement”. Obama wouldn’t touch enforcement with a 10’ poll.”
March 2009, Obama to beef up Mexico border policy
Nov. 2009, Obama administration’s Napolitano sides with border security over environmental issues where the Southern Border barriers are concerned, saying: “I want this resolved so border security has the precedence down there.”
Propitiation’s comment, in typical right-wing fashion, throws out arguments without any merit or factual basis, asserting these fabrications as true. Only to have the fabrications rebuked with fact and references empirically observable by all.
A case of doing the same thing over, and over again, and expecting a different result, I guess.
Posted by: David R. Remer at November 24, 2009 11:15 AMPropitiation again ignores fact and reality by saying: “Intolerance is the liberal attitude toward Christians.”
Most liberals in America are Christian. How illogical are your comments going to get? Laughter at the ludicrous nature of these blind partisan comments is unavoidable. :-)
And take note of propitiation’s standard tactic. He asserts an untruth. A debater offers the fact and reality. Propitiation does not respond to the fact and reality, but, goes off on a rant and tirade of an entirely different subject.
Classic failure in debate, guaranteed to lose points every time. !
Posted by: David R. Remer at November 24, 2009 11:17 AMSo, schwamp, I am intolerant because I am a Christian?
No. You’re comments reflect a flawed christian because the comments are intolerant (and wrong).
Posted by: Schwamp at November 24, 2009 11:46 AMChristine and John,
The only problem I have with your post is that it seems to indicate that you believe world population is declining.
I’m not sure why several conservative think tanks seem to be promoting this idea, but it is dead wrong.
Posted by: gergle at November 24, 2009 01:35 PM“The same thing was going on with Germans a century ago. The first English only law was enacted in 1920 in Nebraska. It was aimed at the Germans. )”
Is this actually relevant to the illegal immigration problem we face today J and C? The whole thing a century ago with the Germans specifically and the Europeans in general was due to WWI wasn’t it? The red scare etc. In fact wasn’t it the conservatives of the time that demanded these laws and immigration reform (reduction in numbers) for those coming into the country legally from Europe?
Posted by: j2t2 at November 24, 2009 02:18 PMThis may be true gergle, but I was the one who was called ignorant. I have seen conservatives booted off this site for a whole lot less.
Posted by: propitiation at November 24, 2009 06:01 PMpropitiation, you were NOT called ignorant, as you claim. Your comment was referred to as ignorant. The exact quote was, “Propitiation offered the following ignorant comment: “
Since you do not understand the difference between critiquing the message, and not the messenger, called for in WB’s rules for participation, your comments are no longer welcome at WatchBlog.
Posted by: WatchBlog Manager at November 24, 2009 07:18 PM“German”, in the immigration records, is a hard term to pin down in the period of which you are talking, since, when the “German” portion of my ancestors came here, there was no Germany, and they considered themselves to be French, arriving in New Orleans, which was the port of entry for three-fourths of my ancestors.
Also, Jewish people were not separated out in the records, from the other people immigrating from the same countries. A Jew from Poland, or Austria-Hungary, or elsewhere was counted as the nationality of whatever country of origin.
Someone is claiming more people are of German ancestry for whatever purpose, and at a later period. There was an effort to make German a second national language at an earlier period, when it was very common in PA and NY, states that developed rapidly after independence.
Do you people have jobs? I had a busy Monday and come back here and find that war seems to have broken out amongst you. Give peace a chance! Thank enlightenment for your ability to type, have computers, and electricity in a nice warm place, with plenty of lighting, to be able to connect yourself to others.
Posted by: ohrealy at November 24, 2009 09:36 PMGergle
Figures indicate that the growth of the world population is declining. This is not the same as a declining population. The population will continue to grow from the inertia of larger cohorts already born, but when they pass through the system, the population will begin to decline in real terms.
Read the articles by the “Economist” that we linked. When population growth rates decline, countries go through a demographic sweet spot and for a couple decades they have a much reduced dependent population, as there are fewer dependent children, but still not so many old folks as a % of population. I don’t know that only conservatives understand this situation. It is fairly obvious to everybody and the trend has been apparent for some time.
J2T2
Our point was that the U.S. absorbed a much larger (as % of population of the time) group of immigrant a century ago. We faced many of the same nativist fears. They were unfounded. They didn’t have an illegal alien problem in 1900 because the immigration laws were essentially non-existent. John’s grandparents arrived about that time. There were no significant restrictions on their entry, but they were not much liked by some of the natives. They were very foreign, didn’t speak any English, had lots of weird habits and were from ethnic groups that had never amounted to much, according to the critics.
I think the restrictions you talk about were advocated by people that today would be called liberals, BTW. They were pressing for more governmental control and management of the economy by experts. Immigration and eugenics were only one of their sidelines.
You got a little of the history wrong on the immigration restriction. It was not aimed at Germans by any stretch of the imagination. By the time they were enacted in 1924, peak immigration had passed. The law discriminated against Asians and Europeans from Eastern and Southern Europe. But it explicitly favored Germans, Brits and Irish and set no limits on Latin Americans.
Ohrealy
I am aware that the German category is large. John’s grandparents were Polish, but they were counted as Russians, since there part of Poland was controlled by Russia at that time.
But lots of Germans came to America and the map at the link up top is based on census data, where people can specify what ancestry they claim. There were 58 million Americans who claimed German ancestry in the 1990 census, making them the largest group.
The point is that a very large group of immigrants a century ago, who had some of the same problems as Hispanics today, are now so deeply American that nobody even notices them anymore.
Posted by: Christine at November 24, 2009 09:54 PM
Christine,
Yes, but it ain’t happening here or Mexico. Try again. Siberia, yes. It’s a phony premise.
Posted by: gergle at November 24, 2009 10:48 PMGergle
It has happened here and in Mexico. When I was growing up, families with six or eight kids were common. The family next door to us had twelve. You see few families like that today.
The statistics bear out observation. I don’t know what else I can tell you? With a population you have to begin with the birthrate and the birthrate has to decline for a while before the population as a whole declines. These demographic facts are as close as you can come to certainty in any social science. You may choose to disbelieve if you want.
Posted by: Christine at November 24, 2009 11:45 PMWell, not actually.
Yes, their growth rates have diminished, but not gone to zero or negative and there is no reason to believe they will. Sorry, but you are jumping the gun here. This is purely non-fact based speculation.
Posted by: gergle at November 25, 2009 10:14 AMGergle
The trends are unmistakable. It has happened like that in other countries. There is no reason to believe that Mexico will be different. Anything you can say about the future is speculation. It is fact for me to say that Mexico’s population growth rate has declined remarkably in the past generation. It is indeed speculation for me to say that Mexican growth rates will probably follow similar patterns to other countries. It is speculation for you to say they won’t.
Right now the Mexican birth rate supports only a modest increase in population. Even if it remains the same, it will not produce those vast numbers of surplus population that gave us so much recent immigration.
It is great to wait until things have happened to predict them, but most of us are more interested in making decisions that affect the future.
Posted by: Christine at November 25, 2009 08:49 PMHTML Formatting Tips:
<strong>bold text</strong>
<em>italicize text</em>
<u>underline text</u>
<strike>strike text</strike>
<a href="http://domain.com/link">link text</a>
<blockquote>quote text</blockquote>
By clicking the "Post" button you agree to abide by the Rules For Participation.
