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This sense of optimism has been in retreat in almost every sense over the past few years. According to Rasmussen polls, just 21% of Americans believe the country is on the right track, a figure that has fallen by more than a half since the presidential election of 2004.

Meanwhile only a third think the country’s best days are yet to come, as opposed to 43% who believe they have come and gone - again a steep decline on three years ago.

These are not one-offs. In the past 18 months almost every poll that has asked Americans about their country’s direction has produced among the most pessimistic responses on record - a more extended period than anyone can remember since Watergate.

America, in short, is in a deep funk. Far from feeling hopeful, it appears fearful of the outside world and despondent about its own future. Not only do most believe tomorrow will be worse than today, they also feel that there is little that can be done about it.

There are three main reasons. Closest to home is the economy. Wages are stagnant, house prices in most areas have stalled or are falling, the dollar is plunging, and the deficit is rising. A Pew survey last week showed that 72% believe the economy is either “only fair” or poor and 76% believe it will be the same or worse a year from now. Globalisation is a major worry. Of 46 countries polled recently, the US had the least positive view on foreign trade and one of the least positive on foreign companies.

The sense that things will improve for the next generation has all but evaporated. Another Pew poll from last year found that only 34% of Americans expected today’s children to be better off than people are now - down from 55% shortly before President Bush came to power.

Gary Younge in New York
Monday October 15, 2007
The Guardian

Posted by: Cube at April 25, 2008 01:37 AM

When it looks entirely possible that the bottom will fall out, enormous effort and cost will be applied to prevent it. That is what we are witnessing by our government. An enormous effort to right their abdication of responsibility and oversight obligations to have thwarted this decline long before it happened.

Yes, Jack, thanks to the loading of debt on future tax payers, things are looking a bit better for current tax payers. We have Republicans to thank for taking this debt and deficit tax reduction idiocy to absurd levels and extents, to be followed by Democrats who never met a need they wouldn’t throw tax dollars at if it could mean a vote.

Some short term immediate items are looking better, but, the longer term future is still in great jeopardy. There are no politically sound measures to avert that jeopardy, and that is the greatest jeopardy of all.

Posted by: David R. Remer at April 25, 2008 02:44 AM

Jack, I forgot my quip. There is no question that the people of who survived Nagasaki and Hiroshima definitely saw things get better afterward. No question things improved for the survivors of the Black Death a couple centuries ago.

And yes, if one insists on optimism, one could find it in the extinction of all human life as a result of a collision with an asteroid: Evolution gets to start over and will hopefully do better next time, or, God finally gets a vacation from his role as monkey in the middle of competing factions of earthlings.

Somehow, such rationalization still leaves me a bit on the realistic, instead of optimistic, side of the fence. :-(

Posted by: David R. Remer at April 25, 2008 02:52 AM

David,you forgot another reason to feel “realistic”. Despite the best efforts of SETI,there has so far been nothing. One theory is that when a species attains a certain level of tecnology,it destroys itself. Realistically,how far from that level do you think we are?
Or,on the other hand,the lefts constant harping about entitlements may cause people to feel that if their every need is not handed to them,they have no cause to feel optimistic. Unrealistic expectations can affect how people view the future,don’t you think?

Posted by: t-bone at April 25, 2008 05:43 AM

This stuff is running out. The price of all that stuff is going up, up, up. What your wages will buy is going down, down, down.

It is getting harder to be optimistic in a country where the citizens are trained at an early age to be active members in the Mass Consumption Club of America.

Posted by: jlw at April 25, 2008 08:58 AM

David

I agree that the entitlement iceberg is a big problem ahead. So what do we do about it? Where do we cut the budget?

Revenues are already at record levels. You really cannot raise taxes high enough to address these problems, even if you wanted to go that route.

I don’t think we will address this problem until it becomes acute. Our political system (all political systems) is not good at planning too far in the future. People clamor for benefits today and politicians usually give it to them.

Re the metaphysical things you talk about, it doesn’t really matter. In that long run we are all dead and in this case you are talking billions of years. If you believe life has meaning, it still does. If not, it still doesn’t. Such things are beyond logic and science. They are matters of faith (or not) and there is no practical reason to factor them in.

Humans cannot do very much harm or good to the universe when you really think about it.

Cube

Thanks for the post supporting my first point. Americans are in a deep funk, despite the objectively decent news. They are pessimistic about the future in general, but when asked about their own situaions, they say they are better off. In ohter words, they are optimistic about what they know first hand and pessimistic about what they hear from experts.

Most of us know that we are better off. Older guys recall when we didn’t have some of the luxuries that even the poor enjoy today. Air conditioning, color TV, computers, second cars (or a car in general), dishwashers etc used to be luxuries only for the rich. Today most American households have these things. If we forced a poor person to live only with the technologies and goods availble to a middle class person in 1958, it would be considered cruel.

Posted by: Jack at April 25, 2008 09:24 AM

Many states appear to be in recession as deficits grow

The finances of many states have deteriorated so badly that they appear to be in a recession, regardless of whether that’s true for the nation as a whole, a survey of all 50 state fiscal directors concludes.

The situation looks even worse for the fiscal year that begins July 1 in most states.

_More than half the 16 states reporting deficits this year have cut spending, including $1 billion by Florida lawmakers last year and across-the-board cuts in Nevada. At least eight states are debating raising taxes or fees, including a proposed $1-per-pack cigarette tax increase in Massachusetts to raise $175 million.

_Twelve states, including Georgia, Idaho and Illinois, reported that personal income tax collections were failing to meet estimates, and in eight of these, collections were even below a reduced forecast.

_Many states, including Alabama, Arizona, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada and Wisconsin, plan to tap their rainy day funds, which contain money set aside for fiscal emergencies. Nevada may use its entire rainy day balance.

Posted by: womanmarine at April 25, 2008 09:29 AM

Improvements are good.

However, so are priorities (something Congress doesn’t seem to have a clue about).

And these 10 ABUSES are largely why these economic conditions for most Americans have never been worse ever, and/or since the 1930s and 1940s.

• Why is there so much debt?
• Where will the money come from to pay the interest on $53 Trillion of nation-wide debt come from, much less the money to pay-down the growing principal, when that money does not yet exist?
• Why are there record level foreclosures (225,000 per month! one-simple-idea.com/DisparityTrend.htm#Foreclosures)?
• Why are savings rates at the lowest levels since 1933?
• Why have real median incomes fallen since year 1978 (based on more workers per household, despite a measely increase by only $3K in 2004 dollars in the last 28 years) ?
• Why is the government importing more skilled labor and raising H-1B Visa limits when we’ve lost 250,000 jobs since the beginning of the year?
• Why are immigration laws being ignored? Why the hypocrisy of homeland security when more people have been killed by illegal aliens in 3 years than all U.S. troops killed in Iraq in 5 years?
• Why is the wealth disparity gap now as large as it was in the 1930s ?
• Why is the tax system regressive (as evidenced by Warren Buffet’s 17.7% federal taxes on $46 Million and his secretary’s 30% federal taxes on $60K?
• Why are household equities at the lowest levels since year 1945?
• Why has home ownership fallen for lower and middle-income groups to the lowest levels in 30 years (money.cnn.com/2006/03/22/real_estate/homeownership_study/index.htm)?
• Why is total $22 Trillion of federal debt ($9.4 Trillion National Debt and $12.8 Trillion (www.socialsecurity.org/reformandyou/faqs.html#2) borrowed and spent from Social Security (), leaving it pay-as-you-go, with a 77 million baby boomer bubble approaching (13,175 new recipients per day!)); larger than ever before, in both size and as a percentage (160%) of the $13.86 Trillion GDP ?
• Why is total personal household debt nation-wide ($13.88 Trillion) larger than ever, both in size and as a percentage (over 100%) of the $13.86 Trillion GDP. ?
• Why is the U.S. Dollar falling like a rock (one-simple-idea.com/USD_Falling.htm) ? A 1950 U.S. Dollar is now worth less than 10 cents.
• Why are 195,000 Americans dying each year due to preventable medical mistakes, which (since 1999) is over 1.5 million people killed by preventable medical mistakes, which is more than all the U.S. troops killed in the the American Revolution (4,435), the War of 1812 (2,260), the Indian Wars (1,000), the Mexican War (1,733), the Civil War (462,000), the Spanish American War (385), WWI (53,402), WWII (291,557), Vietnam War (58,209), Korean War (36,574), the Iraq Gulf War (529), and the current Iraq war Mar-2003-present (4,050 as of 24-APR-2008), combined!? ?
• Why are our U.S. troops being forced to risk life and limb for nation-building and policing civil wars? Should U.S. troops be forced to risk life and limb for missions that are not the best way to make the U.S. more safe?

At any rate, the voters have the government that they elect, and deserve.

Posted by: d.a.n at April 25, 2008 10:05 AM

“I agree that the entitlement iceberg is a big problem ahead. So what do we do about it? Where do we cut the budget? “

The military budget needs to be brought back into line. The fact that we spend more on military than most of the rest of the world should allow everyone to see that.

“Most of us know that we are better off. Older guys recall when we didn’t have some of the luxuries that even the poor enjoy today. Air conditioning, color TV, computers, second cars (or a car in general), dishwashers etc used to be luxuries only for the rich. Today most American households have these things. If we forced a poor person to live only with the technologies and goods availble to a middle class person in 1958, it would be considered cruel.”

Jack these things you mention are low cost consumer goods that really deflects from the real issues. With inflation soaring , yes soaring, the basics are the real issue today. Food, education, gas, medicine and health care are spiraling out of the reach of many, and not just the poor. The middle class of 1958 may not have had as many trinkets but they didnt want for the necessities which were much less costly than today.

Its easy to say things will get better when you refer to TV sets and other Chinese produced goods and many can be fooled but when it comes to the real quality of life issues its tough to have a positive outlook. Especially when the trade deficits are worsening year by year as the corporations continue to send jobs overseas and continue to bring in unneeded labor to his country. The reality is we are going downhill as a nation due to the misdirected policies of the plutocracy we have in this country. The real difference between today and 1958 is in 1958 when things got better, things got better for all not the few at the top of the economic food chain. Today of course is just the opposite when things get better its for the few not the many.

Posted by: j2t2 at April 25, 2008 10:12 AM

Jack wrote: The bottom line is that unless you are a bit of a loser or your parents were especially successful but didn’t pass any of that along, you live better than your parents did and your kids will probably do better than you have. Of course, you could do better. Some people have too much success, but nobody has enough. A cynic recognizes that and gets depressed. A wise person understands that this is just the way people are and tries to figure out ways to improve but knows that life is a continuous journey and usually fun if you allow it to be.

So, does that mean most Americans are losers?

I think you may have a valid point.
While the word “loser” is debatable, who is mostly to blame most for repeatedly rewarding irresponsible incumbent politicians in do-nothing Congress with 93%-to-99% re-election rates for this?

And observe what happens in the 4-NOV-2008 election. Whoever the next president is, that president will be sabotaged with the same irresponsible, do-nothing, FOR-SALE, corrupt, incompetent Congress.

Thus, the voters have the government that they elect, and deserve.

Posted by: d.a.n at April 25, 2008 10:14 AM

So much of the good news is related to public policy as noted below. Interestingly, directly from the study we see in figure 2 Family Economic Well Being peaking around 2000 then decreasing since. Did they mention childhood poverty rates, parent commute times and total hours worked per week?

http://www.fcd-us.org/usr_doc/EarlyChildhoodWell-BeingReport.pdf

Declining Blood Lead Poisoning

This good trend is due to policies on the elimination of lead from many commercial
products in the U.S., from gasoline to paint.

Declining Infant and Child Mortality

There are, of course,
many factors that have contributed to these trends, from better health care and nutrition to the mandatory use of car safety seats and safer playgrounds.

So who are the elitist here? Those of us pointing to the facts and stating the working class deserves better or those who keep insisting the working class is doing just fine they just need to shut up and keep their noses to the grind stone while all their productivity is transfered up to the wealthy class via derivatives and financial wizardryy of all sorts of which the worker knows nothing nor has the time to understand.

Posted by: muirgeo at April 25, 2008 10:51 AM

muirgeo wrote: So who are the elitist here? Those of us pointing to the facts and stating the working class deserves better or those who keep insisting the working class is doing just fine they just need to shut up and keep their noses to the grind stone while al l their productivity is transfered up to the wealthy class via derivatives and financial wizardryy of all sorts of which the worker knows nothing nor has the time to understand.

Yes, there may be an elitist aspect to Jack’s “loser” statement.

However, the majority of voters probably have themselves mostly to thank for it, because:

• 90% of all elections are won by the candidate that spends the most money (and the main stream media is notorious for exacerbating this).


• Since year 1980, the voters have repeatedly rewarded the incumbent politicians in the two-party duopoly in Do-Nothing Congress with 96.5% (on average) seat-retention rates.


• Incumbent politicians have many unfair advantages, but most voters continue to repeatedly re-elect 93%-to-99% of incumbent politicians.


• 99.85% of all 200 million voters are vastly out-spent by a mere 0.15% of all voters that make 83% of all federal campaign donations (of $200 or more), yet the majority of voters still repeatedly reward incumbent politicians in the two-party duopoly in Do-Nothing Congress with 96.5% (on average) seat-retention rates.


• Most voters don’t even know who their state and federal senators and representatives are, much less their voting records (OnTheIssues.org), yet incumbent politicians in the two-party duopoly in Do-Nothing Congress still enjoy 96.5% (on average) seat-retention rates.


• Too many voters pull the party lever; many do not even know who they are voting for, much less the candidates’ voting records, yet incumbent politicians in the two-party duopoly in Do-Nothing Congress still enjoy 96.5% (on average) seat-retention rates.


• Some voters think their politician is grand, even though most voters believe most politicians are crooked and/or irresponsible (e.g. like Rep. William Jefferson (D-LA) who was re-elected, despite getting caught red-handed with $90K of bribe money hidden in $10K bundles in his freezer), which might explain why incumbent politicians in the two-party duopoly in Do-Nothing Congress still enjoy 96.5% (on average) seat-retention rates.


• Some voters don’t like THEIR Congress persons, or THEIR party’s candidate, but they will never vote for a challenger, which is almost always in the OTHER party, which helps to maintain the incumbent politicians’ 93-to-99% re-election rates in Congress.


• Too many voters are one-issue voters, making them easy to manipulate; too many voters are easily bribed with their own tax dollars and have fallen for the myth that we can all live at the expense of everyone else.


• Too few voters know the size of the National Debt, much less the total federal debt, or the Social Security debt and liabilities, or the nation-wide personal debt (all nation-wide debt is about $53 Trillion which is 3.81 times the $13.9 Trillion GDP!).


• Too few voters know much about the U.S. Constitution, nor the many ways it is being violated, yet incumbent politicians in the two-party duopoly in Do-Nothing Congress still enjoy 96.5% (on average) seat-retention rates.


• Too many voters wallow in the partisan-warfare, because it is easier to blame the OTHER party than work to solve problems; foolishly emphasizing minor differences rather than working on unity to solve the many things most of us all already agree upon (the problem and the solution).


• Few (if any) can name 10, 20, 50, 100, or 268 (half of 535) in Congress that are responsible and accountable. But then, perhaps that is because there aren’t any? So, why repeatedly reward them with 93%-to-99% re-election rates?


• Too many voters complain and give Congress dismally low approval rating, and most voters think the nation is on the wrong track (www.pollingreport.com/right.htm), yet most of those same voters still repeatedly re-elect and reward the same incumbents with cu$hy 93% to 99% re-election rates.

So, who is more responsible than the 200 million eligible American voters for these economic conditions that are now worse than ever, and/or since the 1930s and 1940s?

Thus, the voters have the government that they elect, and deserve.

Posted by: d.a.n at April 25, 2008 11:19 AM

J2t2

The middle class of 1958 spend more hours working for the units of food they purchased. We can talk all we want about inflation. Where I shop the prices have not gone up that much in the last ten or fifteen years. You sometimes need to change your mix of items to take advantage of price differentials. The prices for electronic good have actually come down significantly. The computer I paid $2000 for a couple of years ago, I can replace with a better one for around $600. The same goes for clothes.

But what really counts beyond price is how many hours you have to work to purchase the good you need. That has been coming down.

I agree that we are consuming too much (hence the trade deficits). What do you propose to do about that?

Re military spending – it is a lower % of our GDP than it was at almost any time since WWII. Even if we cut to zero, it would not make a big difference to future budgets. Entitlements make up more than 66% of the Federal budget. That is the big problem and it is growing.

d.a.n.

No most Americans are doing better than their parents were at a corresponding point in their lives. Maybe my parents and relatives were just really poor, but my generation is doing much better than theirs. They were HS drop outs. All my cousins are HS graduates and most have some college. I could make a longer list, but you know exactly what I mean and so does everyone else writing here.

Muirego

You cannot properly analyze a situation if you refuse to understand it. If we keep on insisting things are bad and getting worse, how can we hope to improve. If the last 50 years was just a waste of time, why bother?

All Dems
You will be coming home soon. If a Dem is elected this fall, suddenly all this same data will be interpreted as good news. I will remain the same optimist I am today and you all will begin to agree with me, although you will credit policies that didn’t do the deeds.

BTW - the entitlement crisis will NOT improve. That is a given until we address it. But if Dems are in, you guys will pretend it does not exist.

Posted by: Jack at April 25, 2008 11:24 AM

Jack wrote: d.a.n. No most Americans are doing better than their parents were at a corresponding point in their lives. Maybe my parents and relatives were just really poor, but my generation is doing much better than theirs. They were HS drop outs. All my cousins are HS graduates and most have some college.

False.

Still wearin’ those rose colored glasses ?

All of the following are worse (due to these abuses) now than several decades ago and/or the 1930s and 1940s:

• (01) Total federal government debt ($22.2 Trillion) has never been larger, both in size and as a percentage (over 160%) of the $13.86 Trillion GDP (year 2007), when including the $12.8 Trillion borrowed and spent from Social Security, leaving it pay-as-you-go, with a 77 million baby boomer bubble approaching (that’s 13,175 new recipients per day!).


• (02) Total personal household debt nation-wide ($13.88 Trillion) has never been larger, both in size and as a percentage (over 100%) of the $13.86 Trillion GDP.


• (03) Total nation-wide debt ($53 Trillion) has never been larger, both in size and as a percentage of the $13.86 Trillion GDP:
  • private domestic financial sector debt=$15.8 Trillion;
  
  
  • household debt= $13.88 Trillion;
  
  
  • business debt=$10.16 Trillion;
  
  
  • federal government National Debt=$9,347,132,792,957.00
  
  
  • state and local government debt=$2.2 Trillion;
  
  
  • other private sector foreign debt=$1.8 Trillion;
  
  
  • _______________________________________________________
  
  
  • Total nation-wide debt = $53.2 Trillion (and that does not even include the $12.8 Trillion borrowed and spent from Social Security, leaving it pay-as-you-go, with a 77 million baby boomer bubble approaching);
  
  
  • If the $12.8 Trillion borrowed and spent from Social Security is included, the total nation-wide debt = $66.0 Trillion = $53.2 Trillion + $12.8 Trillion


• (04)Real median household incomes have fallen since year 1999, and have actually never been lower since year 1978 when also including the fact that:
  • there are now more workers per household,
  
  
  • we have more regressive taxation,
  
  
  • and the 40-hour work week is disappearing.


• (05) Illegal immigration has never been worse and more costly, costing American citizens an estimated $70 Billion to $338 Billion annually in net losses. The problem has quadrupled since the amnesty of year 1986. Hundreds of overrun hospitals have closed (60-to-84 in California alone), California is now laying off 20,000 teachers in the public school system. 29% of all people incarcerated in Federal prisons are illegal aliens. The politicians capitalize on it 3 ways:
  • by dividing the voters (capitalizing on Americans misplaced compassion for illegal aliens more than their fellow Americans);
  
  
  • by pitting American citizens and illegal aliens against each other for profits and to depress wages (Wage_Stagnation + Cheap_Labor = Big_Profits);
  
  
  • and by pandering for votes;
• (06) The wealth disparity gap has never been larger since year 1930. It changed direction and the gap has been growing larger since year 1976.


• (07) Taxation has been regressive since year 2000 (or before). We have never had so many different kinds of taxes; many of which are regressive sales taxes.


• (08) Home equities have never been lower (below 50%) since year 1945.


• (09) Home ownership has fallen since year 2006 for low-income and middle-income groups. A study shows that only 59.6% of working class families owned their homes in 2003, lower than the 62.5% in year 1978. That is, home ownership is rising among the wealthy, while falling for most Americans that are losing wealth, losing equity, losing income, and losing their homes at record levels. Currently, home ownership is in a record plunge, and the 4th quarter of 2007 had the biggest one-year drop (1.1%) since tracking began in year 1965.


• (10)Foreclosures are at record levels:
  • JAN-2008: 250,000
  
  
  • JAN-2007: 145,000
  
  
  • JAN-2006: 105,000
  
  
  • JAN-2005: 70,000
• (11) Average personal savings rates are negative (since year 2005), and have never been worse since 1933.


• (12) Energy vulnerability: oil and energy prices have never been higher (both in nominal price and adjusted for inflation; worse than the spike in year 1981).


• (13) Federal government bloat has never been worse, and continues to grow to nightmare proportions. There are now more jobs in government than all manufacturing nation-wide.


• (14) Global competition has never been stronger. Trade deficits have never been larger (see China). Transnational corporations want cheap labor (WageStagnation + CheapLabor = BigProfits). Jobs are leaving the nation in droves; a trend that started in the early 1970s, and also helps to explain why real median household incomes have actually been falling since year 1978.


• (15) Medicare has hundreds of billions of unfunded liabilities per year, which are being funded by more borrowing and debt. It is not sustainable; especially with the approaching 77 million baby-boomer bubble. In year 2007, Medicare (16%) and Medicaid (7%) combined were 23% of the $2.7 Trillion federal budget:
  • Year 2007: $432 Billion (16% of federal budget)
  
  
  • Year 2006: $374 Billion (14% of federal budget)
  
  
  • Year 2005: $333 Billion (13% of federal budget)
  
  
  • Year 2000: $216 Billion (12% of federal budget)
  
  
  • Year 1990: $107 Billion ( 9% of federal budget)
  
  
  • Year 1980: $34 Billion ( 6% of federal budget)
  
  
  • Year 1970: $7 Billion ( 4% of federal budget)
• (16) Inflation was higher in the mid-to-late 1970s and early 1980s, but we have had positive inflation since year 1956. 3% to 5% inflation doesn’t sound bad, but when it is every year, it becomes exponential (i.e. 3% this year is really more than 3% of last year, which is more than 3% the year before, etc., etc., etc.). Thus, a 1950 U.S. Dollar is now worth less than 10 cents.


• (17) Other exacerbating problems are 2 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (cost as of Mar-2008 estimated between $517 Billion to $2+ Trillion), skyrocketing health care costs, declining quality and rising costs of education, election system problems, lawlessness, regressive taxation, violent crime rates are on the rise again, after falling for many years, environment, declining transparency in government (i.e. the U.S.A. Corruption Perception Index has fallen for 10 years), etc., etc., etc.

Jack wrote: I could make a longer list, but you know exactly what I mean and so does everyone else writing here.

Please do make a longer list. No, I don’t know exactly what you are talking about, and from the comments above, several others don’t either.

While we all (i.e. all eligible voters) have mostly ourselves to thank for it (since we repeatedly reward irresponsible incumbent politicians with 93%-to-99% re-election rates), and even though some things are better, your comment that most things “are better” is clearly false, and a few cherry-picked statistics do not even come close to proving things are better now. Currently, many things are now as bad, or approaching levels not seen since the Great Depression.

So, how do you say things are better now for most Americans? The list you’ve provided so far is not very convincing.

Posted by: d.a.n at April 25, 2008 12:41 PM

Jack wrote: You cannot properly analyze a situation if you refuse to understand it. If we keep on insisting things are bad and getting worse, how can we hope to improve. If the last 50 years was just a waste of time, why bother?

Jack, How can one improve something when they refuse to admit it exists? Posted by: d.a.n at April 25, 2008 12:45 PM

Jack, you are right on the money with your analysis. Too many good folks are led to believe the worse by the media and even though they, and their family and friends are doing just fine, they think that most others are not.

Have any of you depressed pessimists on this blog been to a restaurant on Friday nite lately. You’ll find waiting times of 1/2 to 1 hour. Has any car dealership gone out of business in your community? Simplistic examples of disposable income yes, but also very revealing of actual circumstances.

Jack beat me to it just above, but he is absolutely correct in saying that if a Democrat is elected president we will find that the media consensus is that everything is just fine merely because a democrat is in the white house. Unemployment and interest rates will not be any lower, wages will be not significantly higher, we will still have armed forces in foreign countries, but the perception of well being will be more favorable because we will be told it is so.

FDR had it right, “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” and I would add, a liberal fear mongering media peddling their mantra that only a big government, all intrusive democrat congress and president can save us.

Posted by: Jim M at April 25, 2008 01:19 PM

Jack wrote: You cannot properly analyze a situation if you refuse to understand it. If we keep on insisting things are bad and getting worse, how can we hope to improve. If the last 50 years was just a waste of time, why bother?
Jack, How can one improve something when they refuse to admit it exists? Posted by: d.a.n

Exactly,

What’s the first step to recovering from alcoholism? Hint it’s not denial.
I think there is time to still be a good republican but supporting more of the same disastrous policies is simply putting ones party ahead of one’s country.
When they want to make the issue lapel pins and ignore all sorts of impending disasters, all sorts of corruption and all sorts of inequities you know they’ve lost their way.

Posted by: muirgeo at April 25, 2008 01:47 PM

Jack-
You know what real elitism is? It’s not academic analysis of voting patterns. It’s insisting to people who are facing excessive fuel costs, rising food prices, absent or excessively expensive healthcare coverage, and all kinds of other troubles that it’s all just in ther heads. We’ve seen more layoffs, more jobs and American money heading overseas, our dollar shrinking, foreclosures rising, the credit market jamming… It’s more than just psychological. The economy has been mismanaged, and Americans are paying the price for it. The Rich and well-off feel this less than everybody else, at least if they don’t bother to ask anybody else.

Some of them see the rich and the investor class as the wellspring of American prosperity, and forget that for the money to get to their businesses and to circulate around sufficiently, it has to go through working class hands. Why? Because America is a consumer economy. The only thing that’s saved the economic elites from themselves is the expansion of debt as a means to finance things at all levels of the economy. The problem with debt is that as it increases, it reduces the person’s ability to pay for other things. When people spend from what they have, their ability to pay the same price for things stays the same. When they spend from debt, additional debts can drive up the cost of additional purchase along the same lines.

Under such an economic system, a reckoning is inevitable, and it has already begun.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at April 25, 2008 01:54 PM

Jack asked: “I agree that the entitlement iceberg is a big problem ahead. So what do we do about it? Where do we cut the budget?”

For me that’s a no brainer. You see, if my house and my neighbors house are threatened by approaching grassfires, I will tend my house first, knowing my neighbor will do the same. Which is another way of saying, let’s get out of Iraq. For the price of our occupation of Iraq, we can make a considerable down payment on securing our economic future.

But, of course, such measures are never taken in a vacuum. The second and equally important thing we must do is seriously adhere to PAY as we GO, and halt this bankrupting of our children’s future through astronomical debt. That debt, even if never paid, constitutes an incredible LOSS of opportunity by future generations to address the maladies of their day through necessary borrowing.

And of course, Soc. Sec. requires a reversion to its original plan as insurance against poverty, not entitlement to everyone who paid premiums.

As for Medicare, we must encourage the rapid expansion of medical cooperatives and non-profit health care treatment centers, in an enormous way. And for non-profits, legislate that no malpractice suits may be brought against the coop or non-profit entity, only against individuals within them where warranted, and on terms of criminal negligence. With that kind of safe harbor, America could see a vast increase in coop and non-profit treatment centers over a 20 year period, seriously limiting the debt impact of Medicare.

There are solutions. They need, as I have done here, to be prioritized for maximum impact in solving the biggest problems with the most readily available resources. And of course, public leadership, awareness, and pressure upon Congress and the WhiteHouse to move in these directions with dispatch. Though the latter may prove to be the most difficult to achieve.

Posted by: David R. Remer at April 25, 2008 02:36 PM

Jack said: “I don’t think we will address this problem until it becomes acute.”

It is as acute as it can be without the bottom actually falling out, which of course, is then too late to address the problem portending disastrous consequences.

” Our political system (all political systems) is not good at planning too far in the future.”

What rubbish. You say what is, not what can and should be. And, the Roman Empire, the British Empire, Space exploration and more stand in direct refutation of your statement. Stop projecting what is into the future as what must be. Demand better of the future and we will be far better positioned to achieve it.

Posted by: David R. Remer at April 25, 2008 02:43 PM

“But what really counts beyond price is how many hours you have to work to purchase the good you need. That has been coming down.”

Jack you need to think beyond “goods”. Yes electronics have come down, yes trinkets have come down in price however “Food, education, gas, medicine and health care are spiraling out of the reach of many, and not just the poor.” If we could eat electronics then we could say things have improved. If our GPS’s would also educate our children at no extra cost then yes we could say things have improved. If our stereos came with a supply of gasoline at no additional costs then yes we could say things have improved, But they dont and despite all your misleading comments things havent gotten better as a result of the past 30+ years of the conservative movement. Well unless your whole world is about cheaper electronics.

In 1958 one wage earner supported most families. Today 2 wage earners support most 2 parent families. So I dont understand how you can say we work less hours to gain the same amount of goods. Wages have stagnated for years Jack, decent paying jobs have left the country and the corporations are bringing in low wage workers to fill jobs that Americans will do for a living wage.

“I agree that we are consuming too much (hence the trade deficits). What do you propose to do about that?”
Jack I have got to give it to you, your a master at the art of deception. The trade deficits are not due to the jobs and factories moving overseas for the past 30 years and then goods then being shipped from Communist China back to the United States which is a double whammy on trade. No sir not that, its because we consume to much. Brillant anal alysis Jack, spoken in true reaganspeak. It would be funny except that its destroying the country and the people not reducing the size of government.

Posted by: j2t2 at April 25, 2008 02:48 PM

Jack said: “The bottom line is that unless you are a bit of a loser or your parents were especially successful but didn’t pass any of that along, you live better than your parents did”

Patently false for millions of Americans. My parents raised 7 kids with a home and car on one blue collar wage. Today’s parents can only accomplish that on a minimum of two blue collar wages. Your statement is elitist, as it apparently reflects anecdotally, your improved position over your parents. But, you utterly ignore the fact that millions have a very different experience both subjectively and objectively.

Posted by: David R. Remer at April 25, 2008 02:50 PM

Muriego and d.a.n.

An accurate appraisal of American society indicates a lot of progress in the last generations and remaining challenges. To say it is all bad is just inaccurate and not useful.

Maybe I am just very lucky or very smart. I grew up working class and have not had a particular problem getting ahead and being successful. The good things my country provided me were sufficient to allow this to happen, since I had no family wealth or connection. I observe the same things in most of my friends, neighbors and relatives from that time. I am sorry that you guys have had such a hard time, that you have not been able to get ahead all these years and that the same goes for your friends, neighbors and relatives. Maybe you should get some of those “Seven Habits of Highly Effective People” tapes. Otherwise, I really do not know how to help you and I suggest you move away from wherever it is you live, since it must be the land of no opportunity. Everyplace I have been in America has been better.

David

Please see above. We all write from our experience. Among my friends and relatives we grew up with, most of doing amazingly well. Nobody in the old generation went to college. Many of us have and virtually all our kids do.

It does indeed take two salaries to live the middle class life, but that is because we demand more. A middle class person would not live in the house I grew up in w/o major modifications. Beyond that, if your mother raised seven kids with the technologies of the times, she has a full time job. Today’s households are much smaller and labor saving devices make work much easier.

Maybe it is elitist to try to improve yourself and do better. Maybe we need more of that kind of practical elitists around here. The kind of elitists that do nobody any good are the Obama kind who are just out of touch.

Re the Romans – they built very nice structures, some of them still function. We can and we do that too. Otherwise their advance planning was not so good. They never even figured out how to pass power w/o risking civil war. I think the Romans were great. I have studied them for many years. But don’t overestimate their planning ability by the rocks they left behind. The Romans themselves were constantly complaining about their lack of virtue. Actually, it was a lot like today.

Re the entitlement crisis. I think it should be addressed immediately. Most Americans and evidently almost all politicians disagree with me. It will hit us hard. As an practical guy, i.e. a person who plans ahead to improve his situation, I am personally prepared for this event and will do just fine, but as an American I want to help my country make the transition. We will need to raise the retirement age, put on a means test (which will, BTW, mean I personally will get less), encourage choice in investments and enhance personal accounts. The Dem proposal is to do nothing but raise taxes, but they have not even pushed that for fear of the voters. That is why I understand that they do not consider it a crisis – yet.

Posted by: jack at April 25, 2008 03:19 PM

“Jack said: “The bottom line is that unless you are a bit of a loser or your parents were especially successful but didn’t pass any of that along, you live better than your parents did””

David it is also not the real issue. The real issue is are we leaving things such that the next generation will be more successful than ours. Most people have no choice but to think at this point the answer is no. Its where are we going not where have we been that is the real issue.

Posted by: j2t2 at April 25, 2008 03:21 PM

Jim M wrote: Jack, you are right on the money with your analysis. Too many good folks are led to believe the worse by the media and even though they, and their family and friends are doing just fine, they think that most others are not.

Jim, saying something is so, and proving it are two different things. Perhaps you help explain away the list of things above

Jim M wrote: Have any of you depressed pessimists on this blog been to a restaurant on Friday nite lately.

Jim M, Have you not heard?

Many restaurants and consumers are struggling.
The restaurant industry is not doing well at all, and the worst is probably yet to come.

• FEB-2008: Restaurants are closing. After the Lone Star closings, 1500 employees lost their jobs.


• Starbucks plans to close 100 low-performing stores.


• Same-store sales are falling. Few chains have been hit as hard as Ruby Tuesday (RT), whose same-store sales at company-owned stores fell 10.8% in the 4th quarter of 2007. “Unlike paying the mortgage, going out to eat is discretionary and can be changed easily,” laments Richard Johnson, senior vice president.


• Applebee’s sales dropped 2.9% in the 4th quarter of 2007.


• Steak ‘n Shake’s sales fell 9.5% in the 4th quarter of 2007.


• Chili’s sales fell 2.4%.


• Wendy’s (WEN) sales fell 0.8%


• Cheesecake Factory sales fell 0.4% and Howard Gordon, senior Vice President said that since going public in 1992, “We’ve never seen a time like this.”


• 49% of restaurants surveyed by the National Restaurant Association reported sales fell in January 2008, and 54% said customer traffic fell in January, the 5th month in a row (since SEP-2007).

Most Americans are struggling, and swimming in $53 Trillion of nation-wide debt: one-simple-idea.com/DisparityTrend.htm#NationWideDebt

Many economic conditions in the U.S. are worse today than ever, and/or since the 1930s and 1940s: one-simple-idea.com/NeverWorse.htm

And it’s going to get worse before it can get better.
That’s not mere pessimism.
That’s reality.

QUESTION: Where will the money come from to pay the interest on the current $53 Trillion in total nation-wide debt, much less the money to pay the principal (LOAN = PRINCIPAL + INTEREST), when that money does not yet exist?

ANSWER: It will be created out of thin air (as it has been since 1913). Get ready for more inflation, as more and more money (and debt) is created to stave off the collapse of this debt pyramid: one-simple-idea.com/USD_Falling.htm

Things will continue to get worse until these abuses are adequately addressed:

• (01) Lawlessness (constitutional violations, existing laws being ignored, etc.)


• (02) Wars (7 wars in the last 90 years)


• (03) Plutocracy / Kleptocracy (99.85% of all eligible voters are vastly out-spent by a mere 0.15% who make 83% of all federal campaign donations)


• (04) Illegal Immigration and Unfair Trade Practices


• (05) Election Probilems


• (06) Debt ($53 Trillion of nation-wide debt) and


• (07) Inflation / Usury / the Monetary-System is a Pyramid-Scheme (seen the falling U.S. Dollar lately?)


• (08) Regressive Taxation (Warren Buffet’s fedaral taxes:17.7% on $46 Million: His secretary: 30% on $60K )


• (09) Insufficient / Inadequate Education (politicians don’t want educated voters)


• (10) HealthCare or DangerousCare? (195,000 deaths annually from preventable medical mistakes)

At any rate, the voters have the government that the voters elect, and deserve.

Jack wrote: Muriego and d.a.n. An accurate appraisal of American society indicates a lot of progress in the last generations and remaining challenges. To say it is all bad is just inaccurate and not useful.

No one said it was “all bad”, but such clever extrapolations and shifting the emphasis to cloud the issue is not at all surprising.

The issue is that things are worse for MOST Americans.
If not, then you should be able to easily produce a list that trumps the list above (Comment #251420). Good luck.

Jack wrote: Maybe I am just very lucky or very smart.

Lucky maybe.

Jack wrote: I grew up working class and have not had a particular problem getting ahead and being successful. The good things my country provided me were sufficient to allow this to happen, since I had no family wealth or connection.

So what? Anecdotal evidence proves nothing. Is that your evidence?

Jack wrote: I observe the same things in most of my friends, neighbors and relatives from that time. I am sorry that you guys have had such a hard time, that you have not been able to get ahead all these years and that the same goes for your friends, neighbors and relatives.

Jack, I own two homes free and clear, my son and his wife graduated from college, and my family and I are doing fine.

So the assumption that I am having a hard time is false too.
That is yet another obfuscation to cloud the issue and avoid the list above that decimates your conclusions about most things “getting better”.
Also, the offer of “help” it’s highly disingenuous based on the callous comments.
Just because someone is doing good doesn’t mean most are.
Most Americans are not doing better, unless the 17+ things on the list above can be explained away (Comment #251420).

Jack wrote: Maybe you should get some of those “Seven Habits of Highly Effective People” tapes.

Why? What makes you think people having a “hard time” simply need to be more effective? People that disagree with rose-colored-glasses rhetoric are not necessarily in need of becoming more effective, nor “losers” ? Especially when they have just displayed their effectiveness at shooting the anti-anything-not-rosy article full of holes. Good things happen, but that does not mean most things have become better in the last several decades, which is the fallacy of your article.

Jack wrote: Otherwise, I really do not know how to help you …

Well that’s terrible, since we all know how sincere the desire to help is.

Jack wrote: …and I suggest you move away from wherever it is you live, since it must be the land of no opportunity.

For most Americans, opportunities are decreasing, as demonstrated by the list of things above (Comment #251420) that are worse than ever, and/or since the 1930s and 1940s.

Jack wrote: Everyplace I have been in America has been better.

Good for you Jack.

Me too.

But that’s not the point is it, but yet another obfuscation and anecdotal evidence to cloud the issue?
Just because things are good for you and your friends does not prove that things are better for most Americans.

Posted by: d.a.n at April 25, 2008 04:24 PM

Jack

Individuals and families like to think they have forward movent in their lives. So long as they are gradually making headway towards a comfortable life they are happy. What that definition of comfortable means is determined by a myriad of variables and is totally dependent on ones expectations. Those expectations today are nowhere near the meager expectations of 1958. What made people happy in 1958 would not make most happy today.

Todays generation are motivated by promotions of travel and comforts all at ones fingertips via the plastic card. They are encouraged to spend as if there will be no tomorrow. It is alright and the American way to accrue massive debt all in the interest of having and experiencing things. Yes go ahead folks, just charge it, you can pay us later. Of course pay us later turns into a lifetime of irrecoverable debt for many.

You have been trying, with frequency to convince us that all is well with the economy for at least as long as I have frequented this blog. Two years now. The problem Jack is that your optimism is detracting you from facing reality. The reality is that for the elitists who know only forward movement it is easy to be optimistic. For those who see the forward movement gradually slipping away, caution is at hand. Pessimism is a symptom of caution. The current economic pessimism was born at the reality of irresponsible massive governmental and personal debt.

Individuals, families and our country have simply lived the good life mostly beyond their means for too long now. Rising costs are forcing people to make concessions. Something they are not used to. Anyone with half a brain knows that somewhere down the road all that debt and its resulting complications will have to be dealt with. And dealing with it will not be easy or painless. When we are talking not easy or painless it is well known that it is the working class that will suffer the brunt of the financial carnage. Not the elitists. With respect to the latter it is not wrong or a misconceived notion for any realist in todays economy to be pessimistic about the economy.

Posted by: RickIL at April 25, 2008 06:26 PM

Hilarious article! Jack, will you now sing us a rousing chorus of “Don’t Worry, Be Happy”?

Posted by: Veritas Vincit at April 25, 2008 06:38 PM

Here is a little song I wrote
You might want to sing it note for note
Don’t worry be happy
In every life we have some trouble
When you worry you make it double
Don’t worry, be happy……

Ain’t got no place to lay your head
Somebody came and took your bed
Don’t worry, be happy
The land lord say your rent is late
He may have to litigate
Don’t worry, be happy
Lood at me I am happy
Don’t worry, be happy
Here I give you my phone number
When you worry call me
I make you happy
Don’t worry, be happy
Ain’t got no cash, ain’t got no style
Ain’t got not girl to make you smile
But don’t worry be happy
Cause when you worry
Your face will frown
And that will bring everybody down
So don’t worry, be happy (now)…..

There is this little song I wrote
I hope you learn it note for note
Like good little children
Don’t worry, be happy
Listen to what I say
In your life expect some trouble
But when you worry
You make it double
Don’t worry, be happy……
Don’t worry don’t do it, be happy
Put a smile on your face
Don’t bring everybody down like this
Don’t worry, it will soon past
Whatever it is
Don’t worry, be happy

Posted by: d.a.n at April 25, 2008 07:01 PM

The 20th century was one of the most deadly in human history. Hitler, Stalin, and Mao Zedong were followed by lesser purveryors of mass destruction. At the time of the Millenium, it was said that there had been more than 80 wars since the end of WW2, with 100 million more casualties. We could only hope that the 21st century would be better.

That optimism was shaken so badly on 9/11/2001, that people began to call for vengeance on anyone they thought might have had anything to do with it. More recently, natural disasters have increased the feeling of vulnerability to forces beyond our control. Politicians are still crooks. People don’t live up to expectations.

If you are happy being the person that you are, if you have had a reasonable amount of opportunity in your life, have good relationships with other people, and are able to live as you wish without much interference from others, then you have all the basics to make for a better life than others who do not have those things, or did not have those things in the past.

Posted by: ohrealy at April 25, 2008 07:19 PM

Jack:

You are a brave man to say something positive in here. There are so many apostles of pessimism!!!!

They have to question anything positive as it violates a fundamental position.

The fact that you say some things are positive is very much like telling some in geometry that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line.

You are of course correct. There is much positive in the world. I was reading today a negative article the world growth has slowed from 5.0% to about 3.8% or something like that. When I checked the growth rate of the Clinton adminstration, (you know utopian days) I found that world economic growth this year is expected to be higher than the average of the Clinton years here in USA.

There are so many people world wide coming out of poverty it is absolutely amazing. Of course we see commodity prices rising.

Let me give you an example. If you take $60 trillion as world gdp at look at the average recent growth rate of about 4.0%, that is $2.4 Trillion a year. USA is about $14 trillion. So we are producing as a world a new United States about every 6 years. WOW!!

I am certain that is negative some how. People coming out of poverty and all.

Posted by: Craig Holmes at April 25, 2008 08:11 PM

There are three main reasons. Closest to home is the economy. Wages are stagnant, house prices in most areas have stalled or are falling, the dollar is plunging, and the deficit is rising.

Thanks for the post supporting my first point. Americans are in a deep funk, despite the objectively decent news.
Jack

I am surprised that the above phrase, included in the article I quoted, supports your views? You made claims of a better life, while quoting and linking to an article that is focused on the lives and health of our children. Which is great, but how does that answer the question on how American Adults feel about their own lives?

The bottom line is that unless you are a bit of a loser or your parents were especially successful but didn’t pass any of that along, you live better than your parents did and your kids will probably do better than you have.

by Jack

Actually it is projected that the incoming generation will be the first in the past hundred years that will do worse economically than the previous generation. But hey, they might live longer.

Posted by: Cube at April 25, 2008 09:30 PM

d.a.n.

We have had this discussion many times before. Commonly used statistics tell me that things are better now. The median American income is about 1/3 higher than it was in 1970. People have access to good and services like never before. More of us have been to college. More of us still own homes (even with all the subprime). We have more square footage. We live longer. The list goes on. The only things that seem to be worse are commuting times and sprawl.

You reject these statistics. So I go with my own observations. My observations, and I have been to every state in the union except Alaska, Hawaii and (incongruously) Missouri is that our country looks more prosperous. Even poor households have decent cars, big TVs etc. When I first started travelling (I hitchhiked to Alabama when I was 18) lots of places didn’t even have indoor plumbing. In my almost forty years of travelling I have seen steady improvements in everything except sprawl, as mentioned above.

So the statistics tell me things are better. My experience tells me things are better. You tell me things are worse. And you are surprised when I don’t believe it.

You also are doing better, as you said. Of course I was being facetious with my offer of help and sympathy, because I was nearly certain that you were doing well – as are most Americans – compared with the past. I was calling your bluff on this and you folded.

RickIL
“Those expectations today are nowhere near the meager expectations of 1958. What made people happy in 1958 would not make most happy today.” We agree. I would go farther to say that most of us are spoiled. Expectations ran ahead of reality. It has always been thus. But that is a of a flaw in human nature. It is an excess of hedonistic desire. We should just say no, and we have the power to do that. The system has delivered. Not everybody has the character to accept the opportunity.

Cube

I think that people are in a funk. But they are mistaken. The polls also show that they are much more pessimistic about the general condition (the opinion they get from experts) than their own situation (the situation they know firsthand).

The system has delivered enough material wealth to allow almost everyone in our great country to pursue happiness. Many people have taken advantage of that. The fact that some people cannot catch it is well…guess where the fault lies.

Maybe we do need some kind of moral education to help people use the surfeit of material possessions they can now command. Creating even more doesn’t seem to be working. But I don’t trust politicians to run the moral education.

Re this generation being worse off. I heard that when I was young too. Jimmy Carter told me that. He was mistaken then. The ancient Greeks used to tell people that. Thomas Malthus told us we would all starve…by about 1820. The popultion bomb told us we would be starving in American cities by around 1985. The Club of Rome told us we had reached the limits of growth in the 1970s and we would be running out of everything before 1990.

Pessimism has a long and pessimistic history. I believed that crap when I was 18. I have learned not to be so silly anymore.

Posted by: Jack at April 25, 2008 10:17 PM

“Maybe we do need some kind of moral education to help people use the surfeit of material possessions they can now command. Creating even more doesn’t seem to be working. But I don’t trust politicians “

Jack while you are certainly smarter than most of your fellow repubs there are still quite a few on your side of the aisle that does think government should be involved with moral education.

http://www.au.org/site/PageServer?pagename=pr_National_Day_of_paryer#faq

Posted by: j2t2 at April 26, 2008 12:55 AM

“Pessimism has a long and pessimistic history. I believed that crap when I was 18. I have learned not to be so silly anymore.
Posted by: Jack at April 25, 2008 10:17 PM”

It’s not about pessimism for me it’s about fairness. The biggest statistic in quality of life is total family hours worked. Families combined hours and time off for vacation are dismal in this country. The poverty level is dismal as is the incarceration rate. We have more people in jail then communist China.

Total corporate profits from Wall Street and Banking went up from 10% to 40% from 1975 to the present. That’s a big red flag!

There are people getting filthy rich pushing papers (derivatives and the like) around and adding NOTHING to the economy but in fact just taking more and more of the productivity and prosperity that should be shared by the hard working people who actual do something constructive for a living. It’s all policy driven and the difference in how prosperity is shared varies significantly with administrations.

Jack do you understand that if Bush and the Republicans hadn’t spent so irresponsible that the difference in interest payments on our debt from when he took office to the present could easily have paid for a National Healthcare system? There might have even been some left over for infrastructure that they have neglected and allowed to crumble. Sure we advanced but we could have been so much further along. We can do much much better!

Posted by: muirgeo at April 26, 2008 08:16 AM

muirego

So you have shifted tactics. It is now about the Bush administration and the last seven years. I was not making a partisan post, but rather one about the general American condition. I know you enjoy bashing Bush, but we were discussing the last 50 years. What you can say (bad or good) about Bush’s time is that the median American in no better or worse off than he was in 1997. Given that this was one of the best years in U.S. history and between that we had the dot.com burst, 9/11 etc, it is understandable. But it is impossible to argue that he/she is worse off today and a generation ago.

Since I hope to avoid the partisan nonesense, let’s just stipulate that in this one place you can say Bush was very bad and we made no progress. Do you still reject that progress we made up to 2000?

So you are interested in less total working time. It is true that most Europeans get more time off than Americans do. They also make less in terms of what they can purchase and are less productive. This is a trade off that you can make. If you choose to downshift your income to the median European level, you can work less too. Europe is a nice place to live and some people might choose that sort of lifestyle, but recognize the trade-off.

The poverty rate is one of those interesting never to be gotten rid of statistics. Since you are interested in comparisons, if you compare what a poverty rate individual can and does purchase each year, it puts him/her at around the 40th percentile in the purchasing power of a person in the EU and a person in poverty today has about the purchasing power of the average middle class American of 1958 (BTW – I choose that date simply because it is 50 years ago) Our poverty rate is related to our wealth rate.
One more thing re comparisons. You cannot compare the U.S. with any particular European country, since most are the size of our states. Most international comparisons cherry pick countries. If you compare the total U.S. to places like Norway or Luxembourg we look bad, but that is like choose to compare Minnesota or Manhattan with all of Europe. Germany, BTW, has a GDP per capita about the size of Arkansas’. To compare comparable, you need to take all the EU, or all China or India. You can only make logical comparisons with like sized places. I would say with EU, China, Brazil, India, Russia & Indonesia. The U.S. comes out good in these comparisons.

As for China, nobody would want to move there if they had to live like the natives. China is a horrible place. I will stipulate that.

Anyway, my bottom line is that the good new is that the bad news is moslty wrong, about the U.S. and about the world.

Posted by: Jack at April 26, 2008 08:42 AM

NOTE: I did not write the comment above with the “be happy” song (www.watchblog.com/republicans/archives/005953.html#251456), but it appears to be apropos.

Jack wrote: d.a.n. We have had this discussion many times before. Commonly used statistics tell me that things are better now. The median American income is about 1/3 higher than it was in 1970.

False.

1970 CPI = 224
2007 CPI = 235
In 37 years, Median Income per CPI increased a measely 4.9% (not 1/3 = 33%).

• MEDIAN INCOME/CPI (1970 to 2006; source: CensusBureau.gov):


• 250 |———————————————————


• 245 |———————————————————


• 240 |——————————————-xxxx—xx-


• 235 |—-x——————————————-xx—x


• 230 |—x——-xx————xxx———xx————-


• 225 |x—-x—x————xx————x—————-


• 220 |-x—-xx————x——-xxxxx——————


• 215 |—————x—-x———————————-


• 210 |—————-xxx————————————


• 205 |———————————————————


• 200 |———————————————————YEAR


• ——1—————————1—————————2


• ——9—————————9—————————0


• ——7—————————8—————————0


• ——0—————————8—————————7

And median incomes have actually fallen when you consider:

• more workers per household


• more regressive taxation


• more taxes of all kinds; many of which are regressive sales taxes


• and inflation is higher now than in year 2007, which will probably result in an Income Per CPI for 2008 that is much lower (perhaps below 1970 levels by the end of year 2008).

Jack wrote: People have access to good and services like never before.

A lot of that is junk and waste, and some of it is deadly, and contaminated (even killing some people and pets).

Jack wrote: More of us have been to college.

Nevermind the massive debt for it, and it is becoming increasingly unaffordable, and 25% of our children are not graduating from high school.

Jack wrote: More of us still own homes (even with all the subprime).

False.

Home ownership has not increased for lower-income and middle-income groups; it increased only for the wealthy.
And year 2007 and 2008 statistics are likely to drive home ownership percentages for low-income AND milddle-income lower yet, with record foreclosures (220,000 per month).
Since year 2006, home ownership has fallen for low-income and middle-income people.
Currently, home ownership is in a record plunge, and the 4th quarter of 2007 saw the biggest one-year drop (1.1%) since tracking began in year 1965, as current mortgage problems and rising foreclosures take their toll (220,000 foreclosures per month as of JAN-2008).

Jack wrote: We have more square footage.

And bigger electricity bills (not good with rising energy and electricity costs), higher insurance premiums, and higer maintenance costs. Also, again, home ownership has decreased for low-income AND milddle-income, and will decrease further yet, with record foreclosures.

Jack wrote: We live longer.

For some, Yes. For some, No. Why are 195,000 Americans dying each year due to preventable medical mistakes, which (since 1999) is over 1.5 million people killed by preventable medical mistakes, which is more than all the U.S. troops killed in all American wars: the American Revolution (4,435), the War of 1812 (2,260), the Indian Wars (1,000), the Mexican War (1,733), the Civil War (462,000), the Spanish American War (385), WWI (53,402), WWII (291,557), Vietnam War (58,209), Korean War (36,574), the Iraq Gulf War (529), and the current Iraq war Mar-2003-present (4,050 as of 24-APR-2008), combined ! ? ? And how many tens of millions of Americans can no longer afford health insurance? And how about the obesity epidemic? And you are right to mention urban sprawl, because it is literally deadly. An estimated 400,000 people die prematurely because of the sprawl lifestyle, which will soon overtake cigarette smoking as a cause of death. Sprawl kills: www.newcolonist.com/sprawlkills.html

Jack wrote: The list goes on.

Your list is flawed and very short (certainly not even close to the 17+ items on the list above in Comment #251420: www.watchblog.com/republicans/archives/005953.html#251420

Jack wrote: The only things that seem to be worse are commuting times and sprawl.

The “only things” ?

Yes, urban sprawl and commuting are far worse.
But that is not the “only things” that are worse, unless you can explain away the 17+ things on the list above in Comment #251420: www.watchblog.com/republicans/archives/005953.html#251420

Jack wrote: You reject these statistics.

Nonsense.

The statistics you have provided are flawed and out-right false in many cases.

Jack wrote: So I go with my own observations.

Observations that are obviously distorted by rose-colored glasses.

Jack wrote: My observations, and I have been to every state in the union except Alaska, Hawaii and (incongruously) Missouri is that our country looks more prosperous.

False again.

First of all, the Income per statistics above show Incomes per CPI only rose a measely 4.9% between 1970 and 2007 (not 1/3=33% as you stated), and real median incomes have actually fallen fallen when you also consider:

• more workers per household


• more regressive taxation


• more taxes of all kinds; many of which are regressive sales taxes


• and inflation is higher now than in year 2007, making the Income Per CPI above even lower.

Second, even if you’ve been to all of the states, you have not been to every household.
Therefore, your anecdotal evidence is not at all convincing, and flatly refuted by countless other economic conditions that are now worse than ever, and/or since the 1930s and 1940s: one-simple-idea.com/NeverWorse.htm

Jack wrote: Even poor households have decent cars, big TVs etc.

Those comments are so materialistic. Things and junk like that do not mean things are better. That system of measurement is very one-dimensional to say the least.

Jack wrote: When I first started travelling (I hitchhiked to Alabama when I was 18) lots of places didn’t even have indoor plumbing. In my almost forty years of travelling I have seen steady improvements in everything except sprawl, as mentioned above.

More simple materialism, that ignores more important issues, such as the following that have never been worse ever, and/or since the 1930s and 1940s:

• (01) Total federal government debt ($22.2 Trillion) has never been larger, both in size and as a percentage (over 160%) of the $13.86 Trillion GDP (year 2007), when including the $12.8 Trillion borrowed and spent from Social Security, leaving it pay-as-you-go, with a 77 million baby boomer bubble approaching.
• (02) Total personal household debt nation-wide ($13.88 Trillion) has never been larger, both in size and as a percentage (over 100%) of the $13.86 Trillion GDP.
• (03) Total nation-wide debt ($53 Trillion) has never been larger, both in size and as a percentage of the $13.86 Trillion GDP
• (04)Real median household incomes have fallen since year 1999, and have actually never been lower since year 1978 when also including the fact that there are now more workers per household,
• (05) Illegal immigration has never been worse and more costly, costing American citizens an estimated $70 Billion to $338 Billion annually in net losses. The problem has quadrupled since the amnesty of year 1986 (which John McCain voted for).
• and by pandering for votes;
• (06) The wealth disparity gap has never been larger since the 1930s. It changed direction and the gap has been growing larger since year 1976.
• (07) Taxation has been regressive since year 2000 (or before). We have never had so many different kinds of taxes; many of which are regressive sales taxes.
• (08) Home equities have never been lower (below 50%) since year 1945.
• (09) Home ownership has fallen since year 2006 for low-income and middle-income groups. A study shows that only 59.6% of working class families owned their homes in 2003, lower than the 62.5% in year 1978. That is, home ownership is rising among the wealthy, while falling for most Americans that are losing wealth, losing equity, losing income, and losing their homes at record levels. Currently, home ownership is in a record plunge, and the 4th quarter of 2007 had the biggest one-year drop (1.1%) since year 1965, when tracking began.
• (10)Foreclosures are at record levels (JAN-2008: 220,000)
• (11) Average personal savings rates are negative (since year 2005), and have never been worse since year 1933.
• (12) Energy vulnerability: oil and energy prices have never been higher (both in nominal price and adjusted for inflation; worse than the spike in year (one-simple-idea.com/USD_Falling.htm#Oil 1981).
• (13) Federal government bloat has never been worse, and continues to grow to nightmare proportions. There are now more jobs in government than all manufacturing nation-wide.
• (14) Global competition has never been stronger. Trade deficits have never been larger (see China). Transnational corporations want cheap labor (WageStagnation + CheapLabor = BigProfits). Jobs are leaving the nation in droves; a trend that started in the early 1970s, and also helps to explain why real median household incomes have actually been falling since year 1978.
• (15) Medicare has hundreds of billions of unfunded liabilities per year, which are being funded by more borrowing and debt. It is not sustainable; especially with the approaching 77 million baby-boomer bubble. In year 2007, Medicare (16%) and Medicaid (7%) combined were 23% of the $2.7 Trillion federal budget.
• (16) Inflation was higher in the mid-to-late 1970s and early 1980s, but we have had positive inflation since year 1956. 3% to 5% inflation doesn’t sound bad, but when it is every year, it becomes exponential (i.e. 3% this year is really more than 3% of last year, which is more than 3% the year before, etc., etc., etc.). Thus, a 1950 U.S. Dollar is now worth less than 10 cents.
• (17) Other exacerbating problems are 2 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (cost as of Mar-2008 estimated between $517 Billion to $2+ Trillion), skyrocketing health care costs, declining quality and rising costs of education, election system problems, lawlessness, violent crime rates are on the rise again after falling for many years, environmental issues, over-population (falling acres of arable land per person), declining transparency in government (i.e. the U.S.A. Corruption Perception Index has fallen for 10 years), etc., etc., etc.

Jack wrote: So the statistics tell me things are better. My experience tells me things are better. You tell me things are worse. And you are surprised when I don’t believe it.

It’s hard to see reality wearing rose-colored glasses.

Jack wrote: You also are doing better, as you said. Of course I was being facetious with my offer of help and sympathy, because I was nearly certain that you were doing well – as are most Americans – compared with the past.

False again, unless you can explain away those 17+ things above (and that’s the short list), which thoroughly trounced your tiny and flawed list.

Jack wrote: I was calling your bluff on this and you folded.

Nonsense. I’m still waiting for some convincing evidence, because the lame list you’ve provided so far is not convincing; not even close.

Sure, there have been advances in some things.
But things overall have not improved in most ways for most Americans in the last 30 years, as evidenced above by the 17+ major economic conditions and issues.

Posted by: d.a.n at April 26, 2008 08:58 AM

Here’s some more food for thought, with regard to population, the environment, arable land, and acres per person.

Posted by: d.a.n at April 26, 2008 09:00 AM

d.a.n excellent post on the population and environment issue. Seems Ehrlich and the Club of Rome may have been premature but not wrong. The gains made in agriculture the past 30 years may account for some of that. However the gains appearently leech the nutrients out of the soil so unless a better biotechnology comes along the ability to continue growing foods at this pace will not be substainable.

Seems hoarding food may be the better investment right now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/104914/Load-Up-the-Pantry

Posted by: j2t2 at April 26, 2008 10:15 AM

Yes Jack just say no. No to throwing our money away in Iraq. No to bailing out corporate America every time their irresponsible strategys fail. No to subsidies for big oil and farmers who are enjoying the largest profits in memory. No to borrowing against the future in the form of tax rebates. Tax rebates with the hope that people will spend it. Spend it with the idea that it will stimulate our market driven society enough to mask current economic problems at least until the end of this election year.

But then isn’t that the crux of our economic woes. People are saying no. They are no longer spending as frivolously as in the recent past. The recent bailout of some of our financial institutions, housing market issues and this temporary spending spree is proof that all is not well. This is not pessimism. It is reality. One could indeed take an optimistic approach to this whole matter. But that optimism will have to come with the idea that penalties will have to be paid for a few decades of irresponsible financial policies. I am not saying my life is bad. My pessimism is derived from the fact that financial conditions are regressing in the wake of a tapped out credit driven society. Reality tells me that fact can not be simply pushed aside to make room for make believe fantasies of economic stability.

Were it not for pessimism we really would have little to discuss on this blog. Optimism often stems from a degree of denial. A denial of reality. Were it not for those realities there would be no need for optimism.

Posted by: RickIL at April 26, 2008 10:22 AM

j2t2 wrotre: d.a.n excellent post on the population and environment issue. Seems Ehrlich and the Club of Rome may have been premature but not wrong. The gains made in agriculture the past 30 years may account for some of that. However the gains appearently leech the nutrients out of the soil so unless a better biotechnology comes along the ability to continue growing foods at this pace will not be substainable. Seems hoarding food may be the better investment right now.

Thanks! Amazing that the world population increases by 211,000 people per day, and arable land is disappearing by 67,627 acres per day. That sounds like a recipe for a Soylent Green scenario.

Wow. I never thought I’d see this in my lifetime (in the U.S.). The question is: Is the food hoarding in the U.S. justified, based on the following from that article ? …

“Load up the pantry,” says Manu Daftary, one of Wall Street’s top investors and the manager of the Quaker Strategic Growth mutual fund. “I think prices are going higher. People are too complacent. They think it isn’t going to happen here. But I don’t know how the food companies can absorb higher costs.” (Full disclosure: I am an investor in Quaker Strategic)
Stocking up on food may not replace your long-term investments, but it may make a sensible home for some of your shorter-term cash. Do the math. If you keep your standby cash in a money-market fund you’ll be lucky to get a 2.5% interest rate. Even the best one-year certificate of deposit you can find is only going to pay you about 4.1%, according to Bankrate.com. And those yields are before tax.
Meanwhile the most recent government data shows food inflation for the average American household is now running at 4.5% a year.

Posted by: d.a.n at April 26, 2008 10:57 AM

Jack wrote: The bottom line is that unless you are a bit of a loser or your parents were especially successful but didn’t pass any of that along, you live better than your parents did and your kids will probably do better than you have. Of course, you could do better. Some people have too much success, but nobody has enough. A cynic recognizes that and gets depressed. A wise person understands that this is just the way people are and tries to figure out ways to improve but knows that life is a continuous journey and usually fun if you allow it to be.

Jack, Excessive optimism is equally as bad as excessive pessimism, because BOTH are delusion, BOTH lead people to ignore reality, and BOTH lead people to not try to find solutions.

However, that is not the case here for many.
Especially when so many here are also offering many common-sense solutions, precisely targeting abuses that need to be stopped, and targeting the inevitable consequences of those abuses if ignored: one-simple-idea.com/NeverWorse.htm

We are all culpable, and blind partisanship, blind loyalty, misplaced compassion, apathy, complacency, ignorance, laziness, greed, irrational fear, and delusion (such as irrational optimism or pessimism) are the real problems we have always faced and still face today. Also, things run in cycles, and many things have not been getting better in the past 30 years (see list of 17+ issues above), and the longer these major issues continue to be ignored, the more painful it will be later.

The thing to remember about government is that we are the governement.
So often, we speak of it like it is some totally separate entity.
But we elect that government.
Therefore, the government is us. We are the governement.

And when enough voters get fed-up enough with it (hopefully, sooner than later; before the consequences become too painful), then the voters will hopefully simply do the one simple thing they were supposed to be doing all along:

vote responsibly

And repeatedly giving Congress dismally low approval ratings, but repeatedly rewarding irresponsible incumbent politicians with 93%-to-99% re-election rates is not the solution.

QUESTION: When will enough voters stop doing that?
ANSWER: Simple: When it finally becomes too painful.

At any rate, the voters will have the government that the voters elect, and deserve.

And it won’t get better by pretending issues don’t exist.
It won’t get better by being unrealistic (e.g. excessively optimistic or pessimistic).
It won’t get better by rationalizing mediocrity.
It won’t get better by spinning and denying reality because it makes the IN-PARTY look bad.
It won’t get better by fueling and wallowing in the circular, divisive, time-wasting partisan warfare (a favorite past-time for too many people).
It won’t get better without more eduacation, transparency, and accountability.
It won’t get better by repeatedly rewarding irresponsible incumbent politicians with 93%-to-99% re-election rates: one-simple-idea.com/CongressMakeUp_1855_2008.htm
It won’t get better until enough voters finally decide they’ve had enough, and hopefully they won’t wait so long that the road back from fiscal and moral bankruptcy becomes impossible to find.

Posted by: d.a.n at April 26, 2008 11:31 AM

from
http://www.optimist.org/default.cfm?content=vistors/vis1.htm
The Optimist Creed
Promise Yourself-
To be so strong that nothing can disturb your peace of mind.
To talk health, happiness and prosperity to every person you meet.
To make all your friends feel that there is something in them.
To look at the sunny side of everything and make your optimism come true.
To think only of the best, to work only for the best, and to expect only the best.
To be just as enthusiastic about the success of others as you are about your own.
To forget the mistakes of the past and press on to the greater achievements of the future.
To wear a cheerful countenance at all times and give every living creature you meet a smile.
To give so much time to the improvement of yourself that you have no time to criticize others.
To be too large for worry, too noble for anger, too strong for fear, and too happy to permit the presence of trouble.

or

from Monty Python’s Life of Brian:

Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse.
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle
Don’t grumble, give a whistle
And this’ll help things turn out for the best…

And…always look on the bright side of life…

Posted by: ohrealy at April 26, 2008 11:41 AM

d.a.n
I actually dont believe that 4.5% figure based on what I have seen. I think those that tell us this 4.5% is correct fall for the smaller package same price scam that is so prevelent the past few years. When I cant get to Trader Joes, which on most items has the best prices by far, I go to Safeways and WalMart. Both have raised their prices on food by at leat 8 to 10% recently.

As to your question is it justified, who knows? But the concept of food as an investment is rather interesting. Why bother to save $$ at the rate food costs are rising. I’ll trade you 2 tomatoes and a squash or pay you $500 for a oil change may be the way of the future.

Posted by: j2t2 at April 26, 2008 01:01 PM

j2t2 wrote: d.a.n I actually dont believe that 4.5% figure based on what I have seen. I think those that tell us this 4.5% is correct fall for the smaller package same price scam that is so prevelent the past few years. When I cant get to Trader Joes, which on most items has the best prices by far, I go to Safeways and WalMart. Both have raised their prices on food by at leat 8 to 10% recently.

I agree. Food inflation of only 4.5%, and the currently reported overall inflation of only 4.0% is hard to believe.

We are not alone in suspecting the inflation factors being reported by the government.

For example, the M3 Money Supply (which the government stopped reporting in July-2005) increased by a factor of 75.2 between years 1950 and 2005.
And the population doubled in that period too.
However, based on government inflation numbers, a 1950 U.S. Dollar is now worth 10 cents.
That’s only a factor of 10 (i.e. the U.S. Dollar decreased in value by a factor of 10).
Something doesn’t quite make sense.
Of course, a lot of foreigners now also hold U.S. Dollars, but is such a huge increase in the M3 Money Supply (by a factor of 75.2) somehow consistent with inflation that has decreased the value of the U.S. Dollar by only a factor of 10 ?

j2t2 wrote: As to your question is it justified, who knows? But the concept of food as an investment is rather interesting. Why bother to save $$ at the rate food costs are rising. I’ll trade you 2 tomatoes and a squash or pay you $500 for a oil change may be the way of the future.

Makes sense. It’s probably best if this hoarding doesn’t spread though, because that alone might create shortages, bubbles, and disruption that may make things worse.

As for inflation, 3% to 5% inflation doesn’t sound that bad, except when it is EVERY YEAR.
Then it becomes exponential.

And with $53 Trillion in nation-wide debt, no one can (or wants to) tell us where the money will come from to pay the interest on $53 Trillion of debt, much less the money to reduce the $53 Trillion of principal so that the debt doesn’t continue to grow larger and larger (now already 3.81 times the nation’s $13.86 Trillion GDP).

Posted by: d.a.n at April 26, 2008 01:24 PM

Might be a good time to grow a garden and/or get a green house?

Posted by: d.a.n at April 26, 2008 01:25 PM

“Were it not for pessimism we really would have little to discuss on this blog. Optimism often stems from a degree of denial. A denial of reality. Were it not for those realities there would be no need for optimism.”
Posted by: RickIL at April 26, 2008 10:22 AM

Let me see if I understand this statement correctly RickIL. George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, FDR, Jack Kennedy, Margaret Thatcher, Pope John Paul II, and so many others were acting from a “degree of denial”? That’s crap. These great leaders were full of optimism based upon their faith in God and faith in free men and women being loosed from government tyranny.

Why is it liberals always see the glass as half empty? Answer, promoting misery buys votes. Convincing enough people that they are miserable and that only they can provide relief, is the game plan for both Clinton and Obama. Only by allowing government to rule their lives can the people be saved from themselves. Blame all the misery on the wealthy, the corporations or whatever or whoever is the current bogyman and you will win elections. This is a loosing game-plan as many would-be presidents have found to be true.

Ronald Reagan enjoyed historic landslide victory’s and was swept into office with a message of optimism and faith in the American people. He roused our national sense of self-reliance, not government handouts and a socialized mindset. American’s had a leader, one who instilled unashamed optimism and a belief that government exists to serve, not rule.

Jack Kennedy didn’t ask “What can my country do for me”? He also understood the tremendous value of ordinary American’s being left alone to follow their dreams without government’s heavy-handed fist.

Every form of tyranny begins with convincing people of their misery and offering solutions that only they can provide. True strength and well-being rests with each one of us, all 300 million Americans, not with some pied-piper promising more at the expense of others.

d.a.n. if I look up the word pessimist in dictionary will I find your photo there? All the references and charts and graphs you present are from one perspective. Try being a realistic optimist for just one day and google for positive references. You’ll be amazed. On the internet it is simple to support any viewpoint. Why is it that you only present one side?

Most of us simply are too busy leading our happy and productive lives to spend the hours you apparently do to reference all the depressing, pessimistic views.

Posted by: Jim M at April 26, 2008 02:08 PM

Jim M

I see the good in life. I also see the bad. I am in real life generally an optimist. I personally tend to look beyond adversity and make the most of whatever challenges are presented to me. I do realize that it will do myself or anyone else little good to dwell on things that can not be fixed in the short term. But that does not mean that I am going to stick my head in the sand and proclaim that because I can’t see it or don’t like it, it must not be there. Optimism is a good thing so long as it does not overreach reality. Pessimism is a good thing so long as one does not allow it to rule their thoughts and actions. Optimism nor pessimism can exist without the other.

Why is it that conservatives always see liberals as the purveyors of bad news? Could it be that we are more inclined to own up to the realities of our surroundings. And that just maybe conservatives tend to ignore what is broken or not working today in favor of getting around to addressing the issue tomorrow. Their motto should be Don’t worry about nothing and nothing will be alright.

Posted by: RickIL at April 26, 2008 03:21 PM

Jim:

It is nice to see another realist around. It is hard to be in a place that by definition will tolerate no good or positive news of any kind. Nothing can be presented as positive because it violates a group think of some sort. Life must be dismal and negative.

To believe that there is at least some positive in the world, is redefined as “rosy”.

Of course the pesimism is a bunch of crap. Our world is full of wonderful things. there are many many positive stories.

For instance the food inflation. The reason for food inflation at the core is that more people can now afford these items and are competing with us for them, thus bidding them up. That means that somewhere on the other side of these financial equations, someone is prospering. That must be a bad thing as well. People coming out of poverty and all.

Again, these terrible finanical times that we are in where we are debating if we are in a recession or not. You know that terrible 5% unemployment. (Of course we do not mention that in Germany it is close to double that figure). World GDP growth is right now higher than it was in America in those golden perfect years of the Clinton presidency.

That means that poor people are getting jobs and becoming middle class. This too is a terrible thing.

Of and of course the only way they can become middle class in then end is education and job skill. So on our planet we are producing more and more people with strong educational skills. Again this must be reclassified as a negative some how or it breaks the group think thing.

Energy is a terrible crisis and all. Of course you read about it. Brazil just found one of the greastes finds of all time. Over 30 trillion barrels of oil. Enough to take care of the entire worlds oil needs for 10 years at current consumption rates. More bad news.

Of course oil was not being discovered and that was a crisis some time ago. People were not looking for it! Why look at @20 a barrel? Shoot if we get to 200/barrel we will all be drilling in our back yards. We will find it everywhere!!

What we are dealing in this country is problems creasted by progress. We have 3 times the workers in our free market system than we did before the fall of communism. We have a much longer longevity. Of course we are going to have scarcity is social services for the elderly because of progress, and of course we have a issues with commodities causes by progress.

Progress creates problems. What we should do is start shooting our elderly when they reach the longevity rates from the 1970’s, and we should put up the iron curtain again, and erect high trade berriers and destroy the Internet. Then all these problems can go away, and we can have utopia again.

No that will not work. The pessimists will see that as negative as well.

Since you cannot have progress without creating some sort of negatives, I think we will always have those who choose to be the ones who keep the lists of the negative things of the world.

We should encourage them to keep the pessimist list long. We can delegate being pessimists to them. Then the rest of us can live our lives and take what comes.

That will be progress.

Posted by: Craig Holmes at April 26, 2008 04:13 PM

I like to hope for the best, but I prefer to do that in the course of acknowledging and dealing with the worst.

We need hope, belief that things can work out for the best. What we don’t need is the illusion that things must work out for the best. If we don’t acknowledge that, we take too many stupid risks, and fail to plan like we need to, in order to head off those failures. We have to maintain a level of humility in our endeavours that will allow us to sense when we’re heading for the cliff while we still can do something about it.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at April 26, 2008 04:19 PM

Jim M wrote: d.a.n. if I look up the word pessimist in dictionary will I find your photo there?

No, but if you look up idiot, guess whose picture you might find? : )

Jim M wrote: All the references and charts and graphs you present are from one perspective.

Nonsense. I’ve listed good things too.

In fact, not long ago, I wrote the following in one of Jacks threads …

Many good things have happened in the last 230+ years:
• (01) The U.S. Constitution


• (02) Slavery was finally abolished (though it came much later than it should have).


• (03) Progress to reduce discrimination based on race, religion, color, ethnicity, gender, etc.


• (04) Entrepreneurial spirit, despite the severely bloated government, incessant bureaucratic nonsense, and corruption.


• (05) Productivity, ingenuity, and diversity.


• (06) Internet (didn’t Al Gore invent that? Not just the MSM that constantly leaves out the facts, spins the facts, or out right lies)


• (07) Technology, and the U.S. has lead in many ways.


• (08) Generosity of Americans.


• (09) The U.S. is still one of the top 26 (of 195 nations world-wide) countries to live-in (though it has been slipping lower).


• (10) Freedom of speech, and most Americans that are not afraid to speak up about valid issues, and propose solutions, despite some people (bullies) that try to unfairly label them as traitors, America haters, and America trashers.
Despite all that, there is no reason to not work to make things better, identify problems, root causes, and also propose solutions.

Jim M wrote: Try being a realistic optimist for just one day and google for positive references. You’ll be amazed.

“realistic optimist” ?

If there is such a thing.

There are good things too.
And there are solutions too. Here’s a few.

• Here’s a few more … :
  • [01] VOIDnow.org (Voter Education)
  
  
  • [02] FOAVC.org (Uphold the Constitution; stop constitutional violations: One-Simple-Idea.com/ConstitutionalViolations.htm)
  
  
  • [03] One-Simple-Idea.com/One-Simple-Idea.htm#NinePointPlan
  
  
  • [04] One-Simple-Idea.com/OnePurposePerBILL.htm
  
  
  • [05] One-Simple-Idea.com/BalancedBudgetAmendment1.htm
  
  
  • [06] One-Simple-Idea.com/One-Simple-Idea.htm#BalanceTheBudget
  
  
  • [07] One-Simple-Idea.com/BorderSecurity.htm#Solution
  
  
  • [08] One-Simple-Idea.com/TaxSystemReform.htm
  
  
  • [09] One-Simple-Idea.com/Biometrics.htm
  
  
  • [10] One-Simple-Idea.com/ProblemAndSolution.htm
  
  
  • [11] One-Simple-Idea.com/HealthCareSolutions.htm
  
  
  • [12] One-Simple-Idea.com/BiofuelsAndEthanol.htm
  
  
  • [13] One-Simple-Idea.com/Education.htm
  
  
  • [14] One-Simple-Idea.com/ElectionReform.htm
  
  
  • [15] One-Simple-Idea.com/Environment1.htm
  
  
  • [16] One-Simple-Idea.com/LawEnforcement.htm
  
  
  • [17] One-Simple-Idea.com/WhatAllVotersShouldDo1.htm
  
  
  • [18] One-Simple-Idea.com/WhatAllVotersShouldDo2.htm

Now, a real pessimist would not waste time working on solutions would they?
So, that sort of shoots your theory full of holes (again).

But good things alone isn’t really the point.
The point is whether things are better or worse now than about 30 (or more) years ago.

And I haven’t yet seen you providng evidence to disprove any of the 17+ things above.
After all, that would be (by far) the easiest way to support any claims to the contrary.

Jim M wrote: On the internet it is simple to support any viewpoint.

Nonsense.

There are credible sources and there are questionable sources.
And I usually have multiple credible sources.

Jim M wrote: Why is it that you only pr