Dean's Democratic Demographics

Howard Dean’s accusation that the 2008 presidential race could be determined on race and immigration may indicate the future of American politics.

A few months ago, Democrats adopted a more accommodating primary calendar:

The new calendar would add Nevada, with a large and growing Hispanic population, and South Carolina, with its large African-American population, to the two largely white states of Iowa and New Hampshire that have dominated the early voting for a generation. Democrats see both minorities as critical to the party's success in 2008.

Although Dean's message may not come true in 2008, it will definitely come true in the future as America's ethnic makeup changes.

A small extent of some elections have always involved race. This is how the Senate race in Maryland almost played out, before Kweisi Mfume lost the Democratic primary. However, "some black Democratic voters said they'd switch their support from Mfume to Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, the only black candidate ever elected statewide in Maryland."

In the future Howard Dean is correct: race will play a major role in elections as we change from "a "majority minority" nation, just as California, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, New Mexico, and Texas are now. Whites could make up just about half of the population, down from two thirds now. The black population could grow 50 percent, and the Hispanic and Asian populations could each more than double. "

Posted by Mike Tate at October 1, 2006 11:47 PM
Comments
Comment #185497

The way I see it, the “issue” of race will increasingly take a back-seat to other issues and become gradually irrelevant because the non-white population will be proportionaly so much larger.

I welcome it.

Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians are far from monolothic as it is in what they want and what issues motivate them. And as each group’s middle class grow, they will become as fractured as whites in their voting patterns.

There’s already a lot of evidence of this, as Democrats find it increasingly hard to depend on the “Black vote” in many areas. And Hispanics and Asians, believe you me, are by and large some of the most culturally conservative people you will ever find.

Nobody, once they have a vested interest in the country, wants to pay high taxes. To have failing schools. To have a government which limits their speech, which fails to provide adequate law enforcement, etc. Neither do they want a government that fails to protect them from enemies.

Race as an “issue” rather than a fact of life and accident of birth needn’t be that important at all.

Posted by: Neo-Con Pilsner at October 1, 2006 12:12 AM
Comment #185504

Mike,

I agree with the general theme of your post, but disagree with some of its specific arguments. Within the white population, it looks like things are becoming more conservative. Part of this might be explained by the so called “Fertility Gap” which says that conservatives have more children than liberals. Studies suggest that this generation is more conservative than their parents as well. How this pans out in the future will be determined by other factors.

Meanwhile, the black vote will decline in importance I believe, as they decrease as a percentage of the general population. Once again, the fertility gap comes into play. Blacks have about the same fertility rate as whites, which would keep their percentage of the population and influence steady but for the massive fertility of Hispanics.

The Hispanic vote will be the future of American politics. Thier growing size as a percentage of the population (now the largest minority in the US) coupled with their rapidly rising numbers both from immigration (legal and illegal) and larger families makes it that their influence will grow. In some part, Hispanic influence may somewhat actually decline in the short term as they spread beyond initial points of entry such as California, Texas, and Florida, but the future belongs to the Hispanic vote.

Once again, it is lower fertility rates of whites are the primary reason for the decline of the white population’s power. The white population is growing, but not at the rate of the Hispanic population, which means that the percentage of whites as the general population will continue to drop as the Hispanic population rises.

What effect this has depends largely on what we do now. If Hispanics can be quickly and successfully assimilated into American culture and brought into the middle class, I believe this bodes well for Republicans. Hispanics tend to be mostly Catholic, and the traditional kind, not the pick and choose “cafeteria Catholics” of white America. If Hispanics can be quickly established as prosperous and economically secure, its likely that they’ll vote Republican on social issues such as abortion, gay rights etc. It is up to us to quickly integrate Hispanics into America. If this happens, I believe that Hispanics will be a cornerstone vote for the Republicans. If not, things are not going to be pleasant for Republicans in the future.

Posted by: 1LT B at October 1, 2006 3:14 AM
Comment #185512

Pilsner said: “And Hispanics and Asians, believe you me, are by and large some of the most culturally conservative people you will ever find.”

And that is what is going cost the Republicans ever larger numbers of them. They are conservative: conservative about protecting and defending the Constitution and many are not going to show because of this torture, rendition, and no habeous corpus entitlements. And their long history in this country demonstrates that when they settle into middle class living, they become very conservative on fiscal matters - a concept alien to the Republican party except in election speeches.

Posted by: David R. Remer at October 1, 2006 3:59 AM
Comment #185637

“Part of this might be explained by the so called “Fertility Gap” which says that conservatives have more children than liberals. Studies suggest that this generation is more conservative than their parents as well. How this pans out in the future will be determined by other factors.”

One of those other factors might be that many of the kids being born to those conservatives will get HIV and AIDS, and so never make it to voting age (or may die when still relatively young). This due to the fact that conservatives think that abstinance only sex education is a good idea, and don’t want their kids to understand anything about using condoms when and if they do decide to have sex. There are already some reports of increased risk and incidence of STD’s in the Bible Belt.

Posted by: Adrienne at October 2, 2006 12:40 AM
Comment #185638

Adrienne

The flip side is that homosexuals tend to be liberal democrats. So, the reproduction rate there will be very low. Meaning more Republicans in general. I’m not sorry to have to break that news to you.

Posted by: tomh at October 2, 2006 12:56 AM
Comment #185642

“The flip side is that homosexuals tend to be liberal democrats. So, the reproduction rate there will be very low. Meaning more Republicans in general. I’m not sorry to have to break that news to you.”

Well, if I may flip that coin one more time tomh, this also means we’ll be absorbing a large number of the gay kids that your conservative parents will very often reject, simply for being who they are.

Posted by: Adrienne at October 2, 2006 1:04 AM
Comment #185645

So what? We’re not a country that’s about race. We’re about freedom, equality, and justice (suppossedly). Anyway - what are you proposing?

Posted by: Max at October 2, 2006 1:35 AM
Comment #185657

Adrienne,

tomh poses an interesting question. I’m pretty sure that the general consensus is that homosexuality is genetic. If that is the case, it would seem a possibility that the very oppression you refer to led many homosexuals to try and be straight, entering marriages and having kids and passing on the genes for this. If there is no oppression and hence no impetus to conceal oneself as a homosexual, do you think it possible that the very acceptance that homosexuals desire might be thier undoing as they fail to pass on thier genes?

Posted by: 1LT B at October 2, 2006 4:54 AM
Comment #185658

Adrienne

There is no reason to believe that conservative kid will get HIV more often than others.

There is no such thing as safe sex. HIV has not really broken out of the original lifestyle groups (homosexuals, drug users and their partners) and it probalby won’t. You don’t have to live like a monk. People who don’t have lots of sexual partners or use injection drugs do not generally get HIV/AIDS.

others

If being gay is genetic, it would gradually disappear from the population if gays were not prssured into having families. Couple that with the higher death rates due to lifestyle and the future doesn’t look very gay.

The problem with all predictions of behavior based on demographics is that people change their minds over time and their kids certainly do. There has been a general decline in support for socialism (government ownership and management)among most people in the developed world , for example, but greater support for goverment programs to support populations. Boths liberals and conservatives of generations past oculd find much to praise and fear but we would find most of their predictions amusing.

Race is disappearing as an issue as the U.S. becomes more diverse. It used to be just black and white. All the new groups do not fit this mold. Some people suggest that instead of white and non-white, we say black and non-black. It makes as much sense. Liberals are already disappointed that new ethnic groups are not signing on to the liberal plantation. Ethnic groups tend to favor liberal government until they start making some money. In other words, they behave a lot like other Americans.

Posted by: Jack at October 2, 2006 6:32 AM
Comment #185673

Your posting on it eventually being a race issue that decides political future is correct, and they know it also! Remember to them it’s what can my country do for me as opposed to what can I do for my country.

Posted by: Michael C Bonacci at October 2, 2006 9:01 AM
Comment #185674

Adrienne,

The Far Left movement will eventually falter regardless. As people gain success, comfort and familiarity in life, they tend to want little outside (government) interference in their jobs and family. This covers all of us whether white, black, asian, hispanic, gay, not gay, etc.

Posted by: Jack McG at October 2, 2006 9:07 AM
Comment #185691

>>The Far Left movement will eventually falter regardless. As people gain success, comfort and familiarity in life, they tend to want little outside (government) interference in their jobs and family. This covers all of us whether white, black, asian, hispanic, gay, not gay, etc.

Well, where do I begin. First, most of the posts thus far are spoken like true, clueless white Americans. No disrepect intended, but the average white American has absolutly no idea what being a minority is about. But if a minority, especially a black American, makes a single complaint or implication regarding the existance of racism, it’s taken as an assertion, a paranoid delusion, an excuse for failure or simply ‘the race card’.
The average white American, unless they are the long haired, pot smoking, trailer park, Springer type, have never experienced discrimination, racial or otherwise, and therefore, ‘race’ is just a word……….those who go there just need an excuse.
The Bill Frist’s, even the Bill Clinton’s of America, will rarely, and only randomly be singled out as suspicious in airports, while driving, shopping, hailing cabs, et. So when it’s not a part of daily life, it’s easy to say it’s ok when they are ‘checked out’ because it’s their patriotic duty, and was needed to help secure us from ‘them’. The ‘them’ being the image thus far of the ‘terrorist’ as a ‘brown’ person. Middle Eastern Muslim, Nation of Islam African American, which implicates all black American males, not that we didn’t have enough trouble as it was, and now brown Hispanics with this immigration BS, making them out to be crimminals (yea, the Repub’s and their ‘rule of Law’ crap…remember Jim Crow?? We do. It should be the spirit NOT the written word alone…) Meanwhile, ignoring the Timothy McVeigh’s, white supremists and militia’s, who also declared an up coming ‘holy war’ not too long ago, but are smart enough to stay out of the media till one gets caught in a traffic stop with a load of weapons and explosives, and evidence of all the bank robberies they use to fund themselves.
So, staying on point? The point is; most minorities are poor to lower middle class working folks….paycheck to paycheck, another demographic too many republicans simply can’t relate too, which is why the subject of todays posts, ‘Dean’s Demographics’ is to this point. From the new bancruptcy law, Medicare, tax breaks for the wealthy(er) and big business, cuts to social programs, VA cuts, education/student loans, Health Care and Prescription drug costs (Medicare can’t negotiate prices…and it’s ILLEGAL to purchase drugs from outside the country!??) and most of the conservative idealolgy ( before I’m accused of ranting far left ‘delusions’) do not benefit the real average, multi colored, multi cultured American….and we know it!
So to comment on the above from Jack McG; most of us reject ‘outside (government) interference’ regardless of race, class, sexual orientation, religion or income when it comes to civil rights, as in this Patriot Act and related legislation aimed at ‘terrorists’(refer to current terrorist image as described above), more assistance to big business than to social programs (trickle down?? HA!) Immigration ‘reform’(watch the south border but not the north….but pointing that out is just playing the ‘race card’……and it’s just pissing off the Hispanics) foreign policy, minimum wage, gay marriage (or spousal benefits, which is the real issue………no straight couple has, or will EVER divorce because a gay couple was allowd to get married…)and on and on. Again, before I’m accused of ranting ‘assertions’.
YES, the changing demographics of America WILL change the political climate drastically……and the Right KNOWS it!!
And folks, please stop trying to speak for someone of which you have absolutly no idea. The world, especially the US, is NOT the same for everyone and like it or not, racism is alive and well in American….and quite possibly the race of the recipients of said discrimination will change, generating a new call of ‘reverse discrimination’.

Posted by: got2bfunk at October 2, 2006 10:52 AM
Comment #185714

Once again, if Howard Dean is going to lead the Democrat Party down the “we are the party for your race” road, the Democrats have framed the issue wrong. The point of framing ‘the future’ as a fight over race is to create the politics of division and hatred, a practice that Dean’s Party has grown quite adept at since the beginning of the Clinton+Gore era. The real issue is the structural belief systems of “how to Govern”. Democrats don’t want that discussion. They continue to play to emotion, not facts, and to promote the acceleration of emotional issues, like racism in Governing, rather than to how problems get solved.
The Republican Party will continue to win as it continues to promote responsible governing, structurally necessary taxation, and “social partnerships” between the various sectors of society.

Posted by: david at October 2, 2006 12:46 PM
Comment #185774

Jack,

I usually agree with you, but you said, “If being gay is genetic, it would gradually disappear from the population if gays were not prssured into having families.”

Genetics don’t work this way actually. There are lots of things that continue in the gene pool without them being selected for. Take for instance sickle cell anemia. Neither parent has to have sickle cell anemia in order for their children to inheirit the disease. That is because the gene or genes that pass it on are recessive and the condition only becomes expressed when the child inheirts recessive genes from both parents.

This is especially true when a trait is selected for that is present only when the recessive gene is present with the dominant gene. If I remember my genetics correctly after all of these years, this is exactly the case in sickle-cell. When the individual has a recessive gene, paired with a dominant gene, they are immune to many kinds of malaria that are/ were prevalant in Africa and therefore the recessive gene was selected for as a matter of natural selection.

Now in the case of homosexuality, there are probably many genes in play not just one or two. This being the case, the recessive traits could be selected for in many different ways. For example, if being a better listener or having better fashion sense were expressed in thre presence of a dominant and recessive genes, these traits would make individuals more attractive to the populace and increase the possability of them finding a mate. If ugliness and straitness were linked, then you could actually see an increase in the gay population as a result.

Posted by: Rob at October 2, 2006 8:32 PM
Comment #185837

Rob,

Thanks for the informative post. I didn’t really think my theory about acceptance of gays being the catalyst for them to not reproduce and eliminate homosexuality from the human gene pool was accurate, and your answer pretty much covers what I thought to be the case.

Posted by: 1LT B at October 3, 2006 1:33 AM
Comment #185974

Sorry “white America”, but you are wrong. Being black and having grown up with a very large extended family, I can speak from first hand knowledge that if there is a black canidate and a white canidate, most black people will vote black and not care about any issues or the party. If both canidates are black, they will probably vote dem because they don’t know history.

If you took a poll of black people and asked them who freed the slaves, most would say Lincoln and not the supreme court. If you asked them what party Lincoln was in, most would think he was a dem. They voted rep until Kennedy came along. Ask them about “jim crow laws” and they would think it was done the rep. JFK was our friend, fought for our civil rights, and a dem. That is the reason most black people are dem.

The dems have done a great job of selling the reps “only care about the rich” propaganda, but I don’t see any dems suffering. How many jobs have John and Tereasa Heinz-Kerry personnally brought back to our country? As the was said in the movie “Bullworth”, neither party cares about the black race. They talk about reps being rascist, but it was southern dems who past “jim crow” laws to get power back after the reconstruction.

If a black man won the rep nomianation for president, you would see black turnout at the polls not seen since the passing of the “Civil Rights Act”. Most would vote for him no matter what his platform was because he was one of our guys.

Posted by: lllplus2 at October 3, 2006 7:14 PM
Comment #185978

Most of the comments posted here are so stupid.

First there are a lot of mixed race people and there are getting to be more and more, because it is not looked on quite the same as it used to be. I don’t get many looks when I walk around with my two beautiful girls who are of mixed race.

All those people who used to sit on my street and called me a nigger-lover for dating a black man have surprisingly all had half black babies. I’m sure their parents blame it all on me since I was the first person on my street to date someone of a different race.

We (the people of mixed race) are not so stupid as you might think. We know that there is no party Rep or Dem that is in love with us. What we do know is that we believe we have a right to exist. The Dems (most of them) aren’t fighting to keep us alive, they are fighting to exterminate us. Abortion facilities are largely located in poor areas where minorities live. There was one right across the street from my High School in Cleveland.(we had a 99% black population)
There are also more prominant black people who are trying to get the word out that the abortion industry is not their friend and only want to make money off of killing their babies.
The abortion industry doesn’t give money to Repubs. They give money to Dems and we know that.

Speaking of abortion.
There are genes that are associated with being gay and there are tests that can be done before birth for different kinds of “defects”.
This may come back to bite some gay people in the ass when people who don’t want gay children, start getting amniocentisis to see if their child will be gay and aborting because of it. In North Korea they don’t allow a child born with deformities to live. They kill it if born and abort it if the “deformity” is found before born. You don’t find people with physical deformities there. That could be us with gay people at some point in the future.

Having lived in a very large city I have been witness to a lot of so called “reverse discrimination” (which is really just racism like it would be for any other race).
Black people in Cleveland don’t like white people on a large scale. All of the white kids who went to my school on the east side got picked on for being white. Quite a few just didn’t go to school. RACISM AGAINST WHITE PEOPLE IS REAL. It is not something to make light of. There were plenty of black girls at my school that hated me for being white or kind of white and dating a black guy.

So… got2bfunk…

I will speak for all of us minorities here and tell you that you are clueless as to what is really going on yourself. Yes there is racism. Yes I have experienced it from both sides.
(white people said my lips were too big and asked my mother how she could let “one of those kind of people touch her” to make me, while black people hated me for being too white)
I am still beautiful and worth every moment of pain my mother went through and more.
I am a conservative!
I know I deserve to be here just like everyone else including gays.
I know my children deserve to be here.
I am raising them to be conservatives.
I think that the children of today are going to learn from their not so conservative parents that they did things the wrong way and want to do things the right way.

This is the neo-conservative of today. If you want to say it that way. We see all the stupidity of the past and want to have a good life.

Just because the ACLU fought for me to be able to be married to my husband in every state and it not be a crime back when, does not mean that they are still doing the right thing by people today. I don’t care what some Repubs got notariety for back in the day(racism), today they are fighting for things I believe in and you should too if you are a minority. To do otherewise is to be a Jew overseer in a Nazi concentration camp or a pet nigger for the master that carries out the beatings of the the other slaves or better yet a rival tribe in Africa that captures and sells it’s enemy tribe to the slave traders.

Posted by: lllplus2 at October 3, 2006 7:28 PM
Comment #185981

Sorry above is from THE WIFE

Posted by: lllplus2 at October 3, 2006 7:33 PM
Comment #278042

You are a jerk, talking about gays like that

Posted by: Bree at March 19, 2009 4:40 PM
Comment #278043

MUAHHAHAHAHAHAH

Posted by: hiu at March 19, 2009 4:43 PM
Comment #278044

GOODBYE CRUEL WORLD!!!!!

Posted by: Emo at March 19, 2009 4:44 PM
Comment #278045

DONT DO IT!!!

Posted by: Hipie at March 19, 2009 4:45 PM
Comment #278046

He did it
~his mother

Posted by: Sadmom at March 19, 2009 4:46 PM
Comment #278047

sorry to hear that

Posted by: Old Poop at March 19, 2009 4:51 PM
Comment #278048

sad how all the little gay emos kill themselves nowadays…

Posted by: racist at March 19, 2009 4:53 PM
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