When Population Gets Political

In the future of this country, all politics will revolve around demographics.

In the next few weeks, the United States will grow to 300 million people. As America's population grows its demographic features are changing like never before. How America handles its changing population will become the number one issue in the coming decades.

Just in time for this phenomenon is Pat Buchanan's new book State of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America. He describes the future in America:

By 2050, it is now estimated that there will be almost 2.5 times as many people here as in 1960: 420 million. The share of the population of European descent will be a minority, as it is today in California, Texas, and New Mexico. And that minority will be aging, shrinking, and dying. There will be as many Hispanics here -- 102 million -- as there are Mexicans today in Mexico. Where Hispanics were 2.6 percent of our population in 1960, 4.5 percent in 1980, and 9.0 percent in 1990, today, they are 14.4 percent of a nation of roughly 300 million. By 2050, they will be 24 percent of a nation of 420 million. By nation of origin of our people, America will be a Third World country.

There is still the problem of a rapidly aging "majority" population. U.S.News & World Report reports:

Over the course of the next 25 years, the over-65 population is expected to double to 71.5 million. As a result, the Social Security and Medicare systems are headed for trouble. Each year, the overseers of Social Security and Medicare, the two largest entitlement programs, warn that they're on the cusp of bankruptcy. Why the pessimism? Starting somewhere around 2017 or 2019, the Social Security program will pay out more money in benefits than it takes in from taxes. Then by around 2041 to 2046, the Social Security trust fund will run dry. There are plans to change how Social Security works-the retirement age, for example, could be extended or future initial benefit increases could be linked to inflation rather than wages-but the fight is sure to be bruising.

Medicare starts drawing down its reserves a whole lot sooner-in 2010. If the national debt sounds staggering, at $8.5 trillion, try Medicare's projected shortfall of $32.4 trillion over 75 years. Not only does Medicare have to deal with the same demographic challenges as Social Security; it's also plagued by the complex and politically vexing problem of rising healthcare costs.

Also, massive unassimilated immigration could transform America into a multicultural, multilingual country, pushing the situation to new extremes representing the Balkans. As the Philadelphia Inquirer reports:

David Pearce Snyder, lifestyles editor of Futurist magazine, says that by 2050, Americans of European descent will make up less than 50 percent of the population. Americans will continue the trend of moving to enclaves based on race[.]

The scenario sounds doomsday: America becoming fragmented along cultural lines and at the same time not enough money to pay for social services.

So what could the future hold? A serious situation requires some serious thought. If each ethnic group coming to America is no longer required to assimilate, could we wind up with a government like in Lebanon -- where certain government officials are required to belong to one of the country's cultural groups?

Instead of thinking about the future of our country we worry about global warming or let waste-of-times like John Mark Karr get all the attention. We have more urgent matters to deal with publicly.

The demographic time bomb is ticking.

Posted by Mike Tate at September 30, 2006 10:10 PM
Comment #185482

Mike wrote: “The demographic time bomb is ticking.”

It is indeed. And this enormous national debt we are transferring onto the shoulders of our children will mean they will not have the resources to effectively deal with this bomb we are handing to them because we don’t want to make the tough choices ourselves.

Posted by: David R. Remer at September 30, 2006 10:25 PM
Comment #185495

Mike, you mention many things that should give us concern, especially the Social Security time bomb.

I’m sure how you remember how, when Bush said the same thing earlier in his second term, the Democrats rose up in one voice to assure the country that this was all a myth, that Social Security is in no trouble all.

As for the country breaking apart along cultural and ethnic lines, that’s probably less of a danger now than it’s been since the massive Euoropean immigration to North America that followed the Civil War.

The US, despite whatever ethnic and cultural conflicts we have had, has an excellent record of assimilating different groups over time, with each group adding something to the fabric of the culture while partipitating in the whole.

A growing population of Hispanics, for instance, is an economic problem—not a cultural one, since by and large Hispanics are hard-working, culturally conservative, upstanding people. Allowing so many to flood illegally into the country is a major problem economically, but not because of any damage Hispanics would ever do to our culture. Culturally, they’re an enormous asset.

We don’t face even a fraction of the problem that Europe faces, however, with its enormous unemployment rates, its negative population growth of native Europeans, and the MASSIVE unchecked influx of people who are overtly hostile to the very values of their host countries.

Posted by: Neo-Con Pilsner at September 30, 2006 11:52 PM
Comment #185524

For every $10000.00 you paid in Federal taxes:
$2850.00 goes to the military
$1870.00 goes to pay the interest on the debt
$2020.00 goes to health care
$660.00 goes to income security
$410.00 goes to education
$370.00 goes to benefits for veterans
$270.00 goes to nutrition spending
$200.00 goes to housing
$140.00 goes to environmental protection
$30.00 goes to job training
$1160.00 goes to all other expenses


Enter the amount of federal income tax you paid during 2005 and see how the government spent the money.
Note: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Source: Breakdown of income taxes is based on Budget of the United States Government

Lets just declare no debt, do away with the federal reserve and print our own money, hmmm John F Kennedy wanted to do this.

Posted by: Jeff S at October 1, 2006 9:02 AM
Comment #185526

The statistics and population trends cited in this posting have been of concern by others for some time. Certainly we need to be aware of them but not fear them.

My thought is that conservatives need to go on a PR offensive to educate the recent immigrants about what makes our country a magnet for people from around the world. Specifically we need to proclaim several basic principles that are our secrets of success:

1. A common language (English)
2. Respect for private property.
3. The rule of law
4. Respect for individual rights
5. Freedom of speech.
6. Low level of corruption

Most immigrants I have met bring with them a strong work ethic and strong family values. They prosper under our economic and political system. Once they understand the basic principles, I think they will support them. Perhaps they will also communicate the principles to their friends and family back home.

I don’t think all countries need to emulate the USA. They can look to other countries such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore as role models that moved up from third world status with these principles

Posted by: Mike Meehan at October 1, 2006 9:16 AM
Comment #185530
…you mention many things that should give us concern, especially the Social Security time bomb.

Funny you should mention that…Social Security won’t be a real problem until around 2046 or -47…however, Medicare is pretty much set to self-destruct in about 2 years…now, which one is the “time bomb”?? Which one needs immediate updating, change, whatever to keep the program extant???

Sure, Social Security will need some tweaking, but it doesn’t need a complete overhaul and it isn’t the most immediate problem that needs fixing.

Maybe the Congress in their great wisdom (when they’re not sending off prurient emails to young teens) might see if they could manufacture a $5,000 “doughnut hold” for the entire Medicare program?? I’m sure it isn’t just pharma that wants sudden windfall profits…

Posted by: Lynne at October 1, 2006 10:21 AM
Comment #185531

“Doughnut hole”, not hold…fingers don’t move sprightly on the keys at 7am on Sundays…

Posted by: Lynne at October 1, 2006 10:23 AM
Comment #185533

Pat Buchanan is a pig

By nation of origin of our people, America will be a Third World country.
Is simply KKKode-speak for “nonwhites are poor and ignorant, we must keep racial purity”.

Posted by: Dave1-20-09 at October 1, 2006 10:42 AM
Comment #185535

Dave I Am a Dem But Pat Buchanan is right about the massive influx from across our borders they drive down wages for middle class working people. Blue collar workers are having a hard enough time under bush. These people broke our laws! Pat Buchanan is what the reps were before the neo-con hijacked there party. That is to say I don’t always agree with him but on this I do read his book it makes sense.

Posted by: Jeff at October 1, 2006 11:00 AM
Comment #185537

Dave1-20-09 said

Pat Buchanan is a pig
C’mon, that’s not fair at all - to the pigs of the world.

Posted by: ElliottBay at October 1, 2006 11:06 AM
Comment #185540

The U.S. has always lived with “massive influx” across its borders…the border used to be the East Coast…passports weren’t even required until around 1914…the only requirement to “get in” used to be an absence of TB or other horrific & obvious disease or “mental defect”…our hordes that drove down wages used to be the Irish, the Italians, the Chinese…but they all served their purpose…railroads got built, you could have “upstairs” and “downstairs” maids…and reactions of those “alread here” were the same as they are today to anyone migrating, legally or illegally…and then the “hordes” blend in and the U.S. keeps on its merry way…

Plus ça change, plus ce même chose…

The more things change, the more they remain the same…

Posted by: Lynne at October 1, 2006 11:48 AM
Comment #185560
Dave I Am a Dem But Pat Buchanan is right about the massive influx from across our borders they drive down wages for middle class working people. Blue collar workers are having a hard enough time under bush. These people broke our laws!

This is such a crock. You are not losing money from immigrants. Blue collar workers are not losing their jobs. America is diversifying. Illegal immigrants break the law, but it’s a law we’ve all but ignored in many cases (and NOT because immigrants were taking all our money; quite the oppossite). The immigration thing is another Republican scare tactic. Worse, if Republicans are in charge they will make us spend through our noses to solve this so called “problem” with a giant wall or huge number of troops at the border. Please prioritize people. Solve things like healthcare and social security. Fix the environment.

Read Tony Snow’s (that’s Bush’s press secretary folks) article How about a little common sense on immigration.

Posted by: Max at October 1, 2006 1:49 PM
Comment #185568


You must not live in L.A.

Try going to an emergency room (if you can find one). Try sending your kid to a public school that is not overcrowded and where English is not the second language taught. Try driving through neighborhoods that look very much like 3rd world countries.

Posted by: Keith at October 1, 2006 2:21 PM
Comment #185593

Keith, you stole the comment I was about to leave. Georgia is another place where citizens are having a tougher time finding jobs at decent wages - so many are filled by illegal immigrants who are willing to tolerate employer abuses because of their illegal status, which American citizen workers would not tolerate. We are moving toward a humanitarian crisis here if it is not stoppped.

Illegals are subject to sexual, verbal, and even physical assault abuse, not to mention unfair pay and compensation treatment all because they are exploitable by their illegal status.

Posted by: David R. Remer at October 1, 2006 6:45 PM
Comment #185595

People hiring illegal immigrants should be fined severely. Something like this could work.
1. The amount of wages paid to illegals X 3
2. The amount of taxes that should have been withheld X 7. This would apply to both the business and the employee.
3. Their business licenses and IRS #s suspended for 5 years, and not be able to open new accounts for same period of time.

The amounts listed above should be calculated on a basis of length of employment of the illegal with that particular company.

If those along with other sharp penalties discussed above were put into force, the problem would become a short-lived situation.

Posted by: tomh at October 1, 2006 6:58 PM
Comment #185599

I agree with Lynne here. Social Security is not a big problem. Deficit spending is a problem. The tax cuts that the Repubs gave the rich are equal to the excess SS payroll taxes paid by the working class. The retirement age should be indexed to life expectancy. Something to the effect of; if life expectancy goes up 2 years the retirement age for full SS goes 1 year. Then allow technology and productivity gains to cover the rest. That would fix the entire problem permanently. People may soon live to be 150, they can’t expect to retire at 65.

Pat Buchanan; Conquest of America??? The Mexicans are native Americans (with a little help from Spain. We Euro-Americans are the conquesters - give me a break…

Finally; WASTE TIME ON GLOBAL WARMING??? The belief that global warming is a waste of time is a failed IQ test. Global warming is the biggest, most immediate, easiest to solve, least addressed, threat to the continued survival of the human species that has ever existed since the begining of recorded history. Anyone who fails to see that is an ignoramus or an idiot.

Posted by: Ray Guest at October 1, 2006 7:23 PM
Comment #185605

Max You seem to Imply I might be a rep. I can tell you that I am not Until You lose you job { I was a union worker} to people that will work for less then 1/2 what you make and no bens you might not understand where I am coming from.

Posted by: Jeff at October 1, 2006 8:20 PM
Comment #185608

D.R.R, “They are conservative: conservative about protecting and defending the Constitution and many are not going to show because of this torture, rendition, and no habeous corpus entitlements.”

You should reread 1LT B’s post. John Kerry lost the catholic vote in the last election and that was with there being thousands of “ala carte” catholics voting. A huge influx of traditionalists will mean a higher percentage of catholics voting for life and against cloning and embryotic stem cell research. The tradionalists will have a stronger tie to the church and realize that they can’t take it with them, no matter how much money they have. You do make a very valid point about the abuses they take from employers. What happens if they all become legal and have to be payed legally?

Posted by: lllplus2 at October 1, 2006 8:43 PM
Comment #185613

Global warming is the biggest, most immediate, easiest to solve, least addressed, threat to the continued survival of the human species that has ever existed since the begining of recorded history. Anyone who fails to see that is an ignoramus or an idiot.
Posted by: Ray Guest at October 1, 2006 07:23 PM

hold on there Ray, solving global warming is not that easy, and not all of the causes of gw are from human activity. Climate on this planet has never been a constant, and we don’t know to what extent climate change is being driven by natural processes as much as human activity. Climate is a very complex process. Of course it is vital that we do as little as possible to cause adverse climate change as we can. Tho’ speaking from my little island on the cooler edge of northern Europe, I’m often given to say, only half jokingly, “Global Warming? Bring it on!!”

Posted by: Paul in Euroland at October 1, 2006 9:14 PM
Comment #185621

I knew this would end up to be a talk about global warming. A mere brief reference to it gets the crazys going about the end of humanity.

And about the Catholics voting for Kerry…as a Catholic I would like to point out that Kerry was denied Eucharist and under consideration for total excommunication (from the top, mind you). Hes not popular among Catholics, in fact most take offense that people call him Catholic.

And about the actual topic: The Chinese handled this problem 2000 years ago. If a civilization 2000 years ago can make a 4,000 mile wall, I think we (in my opinion, the greatest civilization in the history of the world)can handle a 2000 mile wall.

Yes it would be expensive. But it would probably cost less than trying to put the crazy peoples glaciers in a giant freezer.

And I promise, message to you union people, we wont work you to death and bury you in sections of the wall. Even though that would be cool.

Posted by: CommonSense at October 1, 2006 10:08 PM
Comment #185625

When I was in grade school in the 80s the talk was of falling temps, global cooling, and another ice age. Scientist, make up your minds. Might I add, you only hear about the guys saying we are going to burn up. That sells papers. The guys saying it is a natural climate shift get very press. It is nearly split down the middle.

Posted by: lllplus2 at October 1, 2006 11:16 PM
Comment #185632

lllplus2, your comment reflects the assumption of single issue voters, which of course reality disputes time and time again. Family values range far and wide from being able to get a job, afford education to abortion. And this election this year has very few family values issues at the forefront, ergo, other issues will be motivating voters, legal immigrant and otherwise.

Posted by: David R. Remer at October 2, 2006 12:10 AM
Comment #185633

Small climatic changes can have devastating economic and humanitarian consequences. India is consuming its water tables faster than the climate can replenish them with rain.

Yes, global warming is one of the greatest problems humanity faces, and we are part of humanity. You haven’t seen an illegal immigration problem yet. If India can’t access water for its population, then you will see one helluva an illegal immigration problem which will function like waves in mill pond. If Indians leave India for lack of water, to S. America where it is abundant, the pressures on illegal immigration into our country will grow proportionately as Indians transform S. American economies in one or two generations to high technology leaving millioins of native S. Americans without employment or sustenance. Instantaneous problem for America.

Climatic problems are huge, and highly complicated in their consequences not just in terms of migration, but, in terms geographic, agricultural, and industrial shifts as well.

Posted by: David R. Remer at October 2, 2006 12:17 AM
Comment #185653


The post of mine you refer to was from a different thread, so for everyone’s edification I’ve posted it below. Thanks for the vote of confidence. I think that Pat Buchanan makes a valid point. We are importing a lot of problems. Of course, white people need only look in the mirror if they want to assign blame. We allowed our politicians to not secure the border and profited of off the cheap labor illegal immigrants provided. My other post follows:


I agree with the general theme of your post, but disagree with some of its specific arguments. Within the white population, it looks like things are becoming more conservative. Part of this might be explained by the so called “Fertility Gap” which says that conservatives have more children than liberals. Studies suggest that this generation is more conservative than their parents as well. How this pans out in the future will be determined by other factors.

Meanwhile, the black vote will decline in importance I believe, as they decrease as a percentage of the general population. Once again, the fertility gap comes into play. Blacks have about the same fertility rate as whites, which would keep their percentage of the population and influence steady but for the massive fertility of Hispanics.

The Hispanic vote will be the future of American politics. Thier growing size as a percentage of the population (now the largest minority in the US) coupled with their rapidly rising numbers both from immigration (legal and illegal) and larger families makes it that their influence will grow. In some part, Hispanic influence may somewhat actually decline in the short term as they spread beyond initial points of entry such as California, Texas, and Florida, but the future belongs to the Hispanic vote.

Once again, it is lower fertility rates of whites are the primary reason for the decline of the white population’s power. The white population is growing, but not at the rate of the Hispanic population, which means that the percentage of whites as the general population will continue to drop as the Hispanic population rises.

What effect this has depends largely on what we do now. If Hispanics can be quickly and successfully assimilated into American culture and brought into the middle class, I believe this bodes well for Republicans. Hispanics tend to be mostly Catholic, and the traditional kind, not the pick and choose “cafeteria Catholics” of white America. If Hispanics can be quickly established as prosperous and economically secure, its likely that they’ll vote Republican on social issues such as abortion, gay rights etc. It is up to us to quickly integrate Hispanics into America. If this happens, I believe that Hispanics will be a cornerstone vote for the Republicans. If not, things are not going to be pleasant for Republicans in the future.

Posted by: 1LT B at October 2, 2006 3:50 AM
Comment #185679
I can tell you that I am not Until You lose you job { I was a union worker} to people that will work for less then 1/2 what you make and no bens you might not understand where I am coming from. Posted by: Jeff at October 1, 2006 08:20 PM
Are you talking about illegal immigrants or global markets? Posted by: Dave1-20-09 at October 2, 2006 9:50 AM
Comment #186030

ANYONE who supports the conquering of America by invading criminal Mexicans are in one of two camps: 1. The Drug Dealers who buy their drugs to resale on the street. Or 2. The repulsive inhuman, greedy, corrupt business people-slave traders. There is no other choice. Let the War begin. They are the same kind of people who enjoy diddling little kids. May they roast soon in the pit.

Posted by: Zena at October 3, 2006 9:52 PM
Comment #186038

hOLY CRAp! someone needs education and anger management

Posted by: Dave1-20-09 at October 3, 2006 10:12 PM
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