September 27, 2005

Surviving Rita

I had the pleasure of seeing my city safely above sea level on Saturday morning. And that is no minor achievement. Hurricane Rita was very serious, and it was only by the grace of God it did not do more damage to more people. This is cold comfort to residents of Port Arthur and Lake Charles, no doubt, but at least the looting and loss of life we saw in New Orleans was prevented by vigilant local authorities and provident citizens. The Hurricane’s impact to Texas and New Orleans will be manageable.

The whole Rita experience revealed a number of interesting things. First, Houston is much better governed than neighboring Louisiana. Emergency managers, police, and others had a fairly detailed plan that they stuck to when the Hurricane came near. This was not something concocted in the two weeks since Katrina struck; it was a well thought out response to the disaster of Tropical Storm Allison several years ago. Both Mayor White and Judge Echols, as well as Governor Perry, exuded authority, alertness, bearing, and competence. They mostly did not drop the ball and were not quick to blame their mistakes on others. Things weren't perfect, but as conservatives, we don't expect perfection from government, and certainly not in the face of the largest evacuation of the fourth largest city in America.

Second, Houstonians themselves rose to the challenge. I spent 14 hours in an unsuccessful attempt to flee to Dallas, which I aborted as news became better, and I became more and more hopeless about my lack of progress--10 miles in six hours on Thursday afternoon. Traffic crawled at a snail's pace. At one point, I searched in desperation for gas for three hours in the North Houston suburbs until I finally came upon a functioning station. Rumors abounded about a mythical Diamond Shamrock or Citgo just up the next road. Even so, people were calm, polite, helpful, encouraging, and remarkably well behaved, both on and off the highways. I hardly heard a single horn honk. One might think that is because 75% or more of these people were probably armed. But it went beyond fear of confrontation. Individuals from Tomball and North Houston came out of their homes to hand out water to those driving past. People shared intelligence, maps, and other tips to their fellow Houstonians, especially those searching for gas. I was really impressed. I can't imagine residents of very many other cities in the U.S. that would be so cheerful and well behaved under the same circumstances.

Third, as I said in my initial post on Katrina, "There are trade-offs in every policy decision. If huge numbers of military and civilian personnel were mobilized in a levee en masse for every 'what if' scenario, we'd soon bankrupt ourselves. " The clogging of Houston's highways by comparatively safe individuals from North Houston and beyond made it difficult for those from Galveston and the coast to escape to safety. Gas was soon unavailable and the handful of streets out of the city were packed and soon immobile. I don't think there was an easy solution to this challenge. But it shows what happens when a city eager to avoid the mistakes of Katrina commits itself to a wholly different set of problems. Our elderly and car-less were able to be transported, particularly from Galveston, but those of us with cars were impeded by the mass push outward, in many cases by individuals that could have and should have stayed. Obviously gas should have been trucked in in advance, roads should have been converted to contra-flow earlier, and perhaps some kind of lottery system should be imposed for the future to decide who gets to leave and when. The whole episode certainly exposed the near-impossibility of evacuating a major U.S. city in a hurry. There should be a strong bias for "sheltering in place" in response to natural and man-made disasters in the future, both among individuals and in directives given by the authorities.

Four, I think that Rita and other disasters reveal the limitations of markets. Markets work great most of the time, but they do not respond immediately, and they especially do not respond well to disasters and the like to supply much-needed supplies. Good government planning is needed in these cases, and it was not completely up to the task here. In other words, markets and government depend on one another to work well. Without government, the sinews of the market, contract and property rights as wel as basic order, would not be secure. Companies in Houston could not reliably contract for gasoline and other supplies from out of state; they could easily get jipped. And markets are probably not the best tool to quickly and immediately get hundreds of gasoline tankers trucked into Houston. (Yes, I know, markets are distorted here because of public roads, anti-gouging laws, and the rest. The point still stands, though a well thought out balance of more fluid markets and government initiatives are probably the solution).

Ultimately, I watched the news and went to bed on Friday, and I could hardly hear the wind outside. You would not have known there was a hurricane passing by, but for the news. I woke up on Saturday and took a recon of the neighborhood. Hardly any damage, but lots of people out and about, most eager to swap stories. I headed to the local pub, which was open every day of the storm. Everything else was closed, but there was a palpable, collective feeling of relief and community among Houstonians in the storm's aftermath.

Posted by Chris Roach at September 27, 2005 09:43 PM
Comments
Comment #82290

Chris said: “and it was only by the grace of God it did not do more damage to more people.”

Well, one could look at it that way. I saw a high pressure center sitting over my house in S. Central Texas which in addition to creating 100+ degree temperatures here, had a tremendous effect not only on Rita’s course which, could have been far more devastating, but, also on her rapid drop in intensity after landfall.

I know the Roman’s attributed the weather to the God’s, but, I thought meteorology had largely replaced such notions. Guess not! Thankfully, the Fundamentalist Religious Evangelical Christians don’t controll NOAA or the Weather Channel, or we might not have any scientific and therefore highly predictable weather forecasts to aid us in evacuating next time. FREC’s would eliminate the science and bury thousands more citizens with thanks to the Lord for his wrathful lesson.

Words are the mirrors reflecting the inner workings and unquestioned assumptions of our minds. Beware the words, they translate readily into policy.

Posted by: David R. Remer at September 27, 2005 10:52 PM
Comment #82293

Beware the pseudoreligion of “scientism” that can, at most, tell us about efficient causes, but not final causes. I believe in Divine Providence, and I believe natural phenomena fit into a mysterious, divine plan. There are things that are inexplicable, both good and bad, and no amount of science will change that. Most important, science cannot explain the mystery of life, the purpose of human life, the meaning of suffering and success, nor the miracle of predictable, regularly occurring and repetitive, natural laws.

You have physics, but you depend on hidden metaphysical assumptions that I am saddened you denigrate in the face of such a benign expression of thanksgiving. I am neither a fundamentalist, nor an evangelical [protestant], but a Roman Catholic. Perhaps you heard of us; we’re the Church founded by Jesus Christ himself and that gave coherence to Western Civilization for about 1600 of its 2000 years, and we are anything but fundamentalist, though we are evangelical, in a sense.

Anyway, here’s a little ditty I wrote on science and the scientific method, and the intellectual poverty of materialism: http://www.affbrainwash.com/chrisroach/archives/016542.php

Posted by: Roach at September 27, 2005 11:09 PM
Comment #82298

Good post. I also enjoyed your linked article. I think the most important point in that article, and the one that could use some mentioning here, is the difference between effective causes and final causes. More people need to realize the difference between the two. They need to realize that one can thank God while still believing in meterology (what better expression of God’s greatness than the fact that He does not constantly have to perform miracles!) and that one can believe in science without denying God.

Posted by: Erika at September 27, 2005 11:23 PM
Comment #82300

“intellectual poverty of materialism”

That’s funny! As if religion was somehow intellectually superior!

I believe in God as the creator and the universe as God’s creation. What I don’t believe, and where I find the lack of intellectuality in most religions, is in the concept of God as MicroManager of and divine intervener contradicting the rules he cast forth as order to his creation.

Faith can be healthy. Faith can be unhealthy. Regardless of whether it is faith in science or religion when that faith knows no bounds. I cite the atomic bomb, the Crusades, and contemporary entefadas, as well as maniacal false messiahs which once filled our mental hospitals, but, now make up a significant segment of the homeless in America, as negative examples.

Posted by: David R. Remer at September 27, 2005 11:33 PM
Comment #82303

Well said, Erika.

Posted by: David R. Remer at September 27, 2005 11:34 PM
Comment #82305

I suppose the faddish and now forgotten rationalists of the French Encyclopedia are more interesting and more thoughtful than Augustine and St. Thomas. Please. Materialism is an impoverished philosophy, and one that rarely questions its own fetishized concept of science, a fetishized notion based on an imaginary notion of what science can and can’t teach us.

I don’t disagree with your view on High Pressure centers, upper atmospheric air currents, etc. One peculiarity of mine, especially as young person, was an obsession with weather and the weather channel. (I have no idea what that’s about). But saying there was a High Pressure center right where we needed one and right when we needed one is certainly a time for giving thanks and marvelling at the not infrequent beneficence of Nature and Nature’s God.

And thanks for the compliment Erika!

Posted by: Roach at September 27, 2005 11:39 PM
Comment #82310

David

Don’t make so much of a religious phrase. It only is meant to show a little humility and a sense of gratitude. Those are things we could use more of. I am one of the least religious people on this side of the blog, but I respect people’s faith. All of us base our ideals on postulates we cannot prove rationally.

I had a friend in college who called himself a scientist. When someone would take about sunrise or sunset, he would correct them and explain it was actually the earth’s rotation. Of course he was right, but it didn’t really matter.

Remember from Hamlet:

“What a piece of work is a man!
how noble in reason! how infinite in faculties!
in form and moving how express and admirable!
in action how like an angel!
in apprehension how like a god!”

Most people end with that, but they forget the last line and that it was meant in jest:

“the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals!”

A little human humility is not a bad thing.

Posted by: Jack at September 27, 2005 11:49 PM
Comment #82313

Chris,
David is right about the High pushing Rita to the right of Houston and causing her to weaking severally before she made land fall in Cameron La. If Rita would of hit Galveston Bay even as a Category 3 with a 20 mile inland surge, Houston would of found out what New Orleans is going through.

While Texas had the eyes of the world looking over its shoulder before the hurricane, the fact is that you did not have the largest evacuation in history. Hurricane Floyd takes that honor with over three state and 3 million citizens leaving the coast over a two day period. However, I was gald to tell David and Stephen at 2:00 am on Thursday that Rita was going to miss you all.

However, you need to tell Governor Perry that the most important people to move first are those who live East of the Eye of the Hurricane. Glaveston and Houston should of been moved west while I-45 should of been used by the folks living on the East side of Texas Coast. That or build a four lane to serve those who live on the east side of Glaveston Bay that goes past I-10.

Posted by: Henry Schlatman at September 27, 2005 11:57 PM
Comment #82314

Jack, you missed my warning that unquestioned phrases have a way of shaping policy and too often with unintended and harmful results. I will continue to question phrases that are taken unquestioned and which have the potential of harming society as a whole.

Lest you forget, science and religion in schools are in a conflict politically which could have long term damaging effects either way if not held to high intensity scrutiny of intent and consequences.

Our assumptions are one of our greatest sources of folly.

Posted by: David R. Remer at September 28, 2005 12:00 AM
Comment #82316

I don’t use phrases thoughtlessly, nor am I ignorant of the weather or science. That said, I try not to be humorless, and perhaps, by the Grace of God, David too will see the benefit of avoiding pedantry when someone acknowledges and thanks God after a Category 5 Hurricane failed to destroy the city in which he lives.

Posted by: Roach at September 28, 2005 12:10 AM
Comment #82324

Roach,

“Perhaps you heard of us; we’re the Church founded by Jesus Christ himself and that gave coherence to Western Civilization for about 1600 of its 2000 years, and we are anything but fundamentalist, though we are evangelical, in a sense.”

Having been raised a Catholic and educated by the Franciscan Nuns and Holy Ghost Fathers, I couldn’t disagree more with that statement.

Christ founded no religion. His followers may have but he did not. He was a teacher, and he said so himself many times.
The Catholic religion may have been founded on precepts that he taught, but it was founded by those that came after him.

The Greeks had a coherent civilization nearly a thousand years before Christ’s death, as did the Romans, and the Chinese.

Civilization had already established a foothold, long before Christ’s birth.

It may have been rough around the edges but it did exist.

Posted by: Rocky at September 28, 2005 01:43 AM
Comment #82351
I think that Rita and other disasters reveal the limitations of markets.

Roach, I’m always glad to hear something sensible on this side of the page. Good article.

Posted by: American Pundit at September 28, 2005 09:41 AM
Comment #82353

Gosh. You used the ‘g’ word. That’ll bring the liberals howling quicker than anything else. They must protect their ‘religion’ (socialism). You know thou shalt have no other gods…..

Posted by: Mark at September 28, 2005 09:43 AM
Comment #82358

Rocky, while western civilization also finds its roots in the Greek and Roman traditions, only with Christianity did the basic concepts of individualism, an orderly and benign universe, limitations on the “divinized” state, and other limits on earthly authority come to pass.

I also disagree with your take on Christ and the Church and, as exhibit A, I’d point to Jesus’ discussion with Peter, where he said, “Upon this rock” he’d continue his earthly ministry.

Posted by: Roach at September 28, 2005 10:12 AM
Comment #82360

By the grace of God and superior Democratic leadership, Chicago had even less damage from Rita than Houston did!

Posted by: Burt at September 28, 2005 10:21 AM
Comment #82361

Crediting god for a near miss has become somewhat expected in society. That really doesn’t stand up to a logic test as someone’s near miss may be someone else’s direct hit. Therefore, a logic oriented outspoken person like David will have something to say.

An elected state rep here in NC wrote a large opinion piece in the newspaper claiming Katrina was gods punishment for gambling, etc. on the gulf coast and Hurricane Opehelia was a warning to NC as we are headed toward a lottery.

To each his own but the problem is that govt reps like this spend most of their energy solving the problem of how to get god more in the mainstream. They have less energy for solving problems themselves and planning for emergencies. They genuinely count on god and community prayers to handle the real problems. Bush is another example. Some liberals would prefer elected officials who will actually roll up their sleeves and address problems themselves.

Posted by: Ms Schwamp at September 28, 2005 10:22 AM
Comment #82366

Hey Roach,

When you wrote this article, did you really think that “By the grace of God” would be the only line anyone seems to have read? By the way, I agree completely.

Posted by: crys at September 28, 2005 10:54 AM
Comment #82370

Roach,
You conclude Houston is much better governed and the only specifics you give are about the evacuation which you tried to do and couldn’t. Sounds like it is governed better because the hurricane missed it.

Posted by: Ms Schwamp at September 28, 2005 11:08 AM
Comment #82371

Roach,

Yeah I have read the Bible as well.

As for evacuations, all you have to do is look at any major city during rush hour to imagine what any all out evacuation would look like.

I have been on Houston’s freeeways during rush hour.
If the same exercise took place in Los Angeles, or Chicago, or New York, or Miami, we’ed all be screwed

Posted by: Rocky at September 28, 2005 11:14 AM
Comment #82374

Crys, I have to say, I’m a bit surprised on that one.

Schwamp, I’d point to the fact that the low-lying areas in the floodplains that may have very well looked like New Orleans in the case of a direct hit were nearly all completely evacuated. My attempt was in an abundance of caution, as were many others who clogged the roads. Galveston and East Houston were almost completley emptied, there was almost no looting of any kind, and by Friday it was still possible to get to higher ground. I made a decision to turn around, but if I stayed on the roads, I’m sure I could’ve waited for gas or hitched a bus provided by the authorities, like many others did.

I don’t judge government based on the perfect but on the possible.

Posted by: Roach at September 28, 2005 11:39 AM
Comment #82383

Roach,
Jesus, also stated that when two or more gather in my name that is church; thus taking it out of the realm of a building on earth and placing it into the spirit of the people. However, even he would have to agree with the fact that all civilizations are founded on the Rule of Law. Right, Wrong, or Indifferent; East or West; North or South; We all must live by a Set of Laws (i.e. Creed) which is found to be socially acceptable to others.

While Rocky is right about Houston or any other major city has a major problem in evacuating their citizens in less than 24 hours, it is not impossible. However, do you really think that Southeast Texas would of had such a high rate of citizens leaving the coast if Katrina wouldn’t of hit their neighbors less than a month earlier?

Posted by: Henry Schlatman at September 28, 2005 11:59 AM
Comment #82414

And why was Gov. Perry so remiss in opening up the S. Bound lanes? He knew 24 hours before clogging of the arteries that evacuation was going to take place. Why were the orders not given the day before to the Dept. Of Transportation to start closing off exits and setting down lane markers and removing the K rails to open up all but one S. Bound lane to N. Bound traffic the night before? The 14 hour wait, and suffering in the heat would have been prevented.

Why are our political leaders so dim witted as to not have a social scientist on their staff or in their rolodex to call in such circumstances? Any social scientist or urban planner would have told Gov. Perry he needed to open those lanes in advance of the exodus. These are incompetent people, and what makes them incompetent is arrogance of power and lack of general well rounded education which would afford them a respect for, and appreciation of, the rich knowledge base in all areas of study and knowledge from which they could draw upon with a few phone calls. But there arrogance does not permit them to seek advice and expertise outside their office of control.

Americans simply must begin in 2006 voting incumbents out, until across the table we have re-taught politicians who they really work for. Not themselves, not their campaign donors, not their egos, but, we the people, the voters. Perhaps then we will see less incompetence, arrogance, and lack of foresight in the freshman politicians coming into office who have learned the lesson of the people.

Posted by: David R. Remer at September 28, 2005 01:26 PM
Comment #82496

David R. Remer
And why was Gov. Perry so remiss in opening up the S. Bound lanes? He knew 24 hours before clogging of the arteries that evacuation was going to take place. Why were the orders not given the day before to the Dept. Of Transportation to start closing off exits and setting down lane markers and removing the K rails to open up all but one S. Bound lane to N. Bound traffic the night before? The 14 hour wait, and suffering in the heat would have been prevented.

You know, he might be asking himself that right now.
From what I’ve seen and heard I think that things went rather well. Sure, there were some glitches in the plans. But then the plans usually go out the window when the first shot is fired.
The question now is, Will the lessons learned in the last mounth, with both hurricanes, lead to better planing in the future?

Roach,
You were most likely better off not making it to Dallas. My sister there told me the place was a mad house. Of coarse then in my opinion it’s always a mad house.


Posted by: Ron Brown at September 28, 2005 06:35 PM
Comment #82509

I am a Florida resident and I am not too happy about how Florida is being ignored.Florida get’s hit by hurricane’s all the time and people figure we’re use to it by now and here you are making a big deal about how New Orleanes is suffering and Bush’s beloved Texas. Do you even remember a Hurricane that goes by the name of Andrew? There are some parts of Florida that are still in pieaces because of Andrew and we weren’t whinning about it and we never got a benefit concert and now because of over a million people that didn’t evacuate when they were supposed to, we have to feel sorry for them. I’m not happy how Florida is being ignored and how differently we’re being treated. I’m glad President Bush just said sorry and didn’t give them any money.

Posted by: Pissed Off Floridian at September 28, 2005 07:26 PM
Comment #82554

Ron, so you think it is acceptable for leaders of states, municipalities, and our nation be given a term of mistakes and errors and training wheels in return for our vote and tax dollars?

Not me. Perry was hired to anticipate and lead without gross oversight. Voters want experience so this crap does not happen. But his poll numbers were tanked for a whole lot of other issues, this one hardly even got press or media coverage.

Posted by: David R. Remer at September 29, 2005 12:45 AM
Comment #82680

Pissed Off Floridian,
Your not the only ones that President Bush and FEMA forgot about this year. North Carolina is in the same boat. I just think it shows that President Bush can’t deal with more than one subject at a time.

It is either that or Florida and NC actually has taken a proactive stance to prevent a Category 3 & 4 from destorying every home. Have you noticed that not enev the new buildings in “The Gulf States held up to a 100 mile an hour wind? Thats a far cry from the building codes that we have to follow. And now others wonder why we look at a Cat 3 as just a storm.

Posted by: Henry Schlatman at September 29, 2005 11:21 AM
Comment #82783

No David I don’t think that ANY elected official should have ANY term or part of one to learn how to do their job. That’s why we TRY to find the most qualified person for the job, and one that hopefully knows how to do it.
I don’t know much about Perry but at least he had a plan and put it in action. He didn’t wait for the Feds to come and do it for him.
It wasn’t perfect but it did work to some extent.
Now, with the flaws exposed, will Perry find out why the failures occured and make the changes to avoid the same mistakes?
Do you think someone else’s plan would have work better? Where there any other plans he could have used? Was the one used even his?
I’m asking these questions to try to get a better idea of the situation.

Posted by: Ron Brown at September 29, 2005 09:00 PM
Comment #82873

The southbound lanes weren’t closed off so the buses carrying those people who couldn’t evacuate could be moved out of the city. Something that was ‘learned’ from Katrina. The buses had to be able to make return trips to get everyone evacuated. This was explained in ‘real’ time. During the evacuation.

Posted by: Mark at September 30, 2005 12:30 PM
Comment #85716

Concerning science and religion. True and honest science proves the sovereignty and power and existence of the Creator God. Science when used honestly will explain God and his creation.

Posted by: tom at October 13, 2005 08:49 PM