February 24, 2005
Lebanon Round-Up
Everyone is positing and posturing in the wake of successful nonviolent protests (photos) in Beirut. Lebanese patriots hope that the assassination (photos) of former premier Rafiq Hariri will not be in vain. Syria and its Lebanese clients hope this will all go away.
While remaining as diplomatic as usual, the Daily Star makes it clear that the Syrians must give itself a timetable for withdrawing all troops, including secret service. The paper stops short of saying that the Syrians must actually withdraw.
Also in the Daily Star, editor Michael Young writes a rambling but instructive piece on the interaction between Syria and the rest of the Arab states over this crisis.
The Syrian regime...see[s] [its] army's presence in Lebanon as an existential necessity. "Out of Lebanon, out of power," might be Assad's motto, as he contemplates the wreckage of a policy born of contempt for his rebellious Lebanese possession. The irony, of course, is that if Assad, in order to hold on to Lebanon, further coalesces the world against Syria, his regime might conceivably be challenged from within by those who have much to lose and no desire to be buried in the collapsing edifice of Assad's rule...The CSMonitor's commentary is a good overview of the subject, but stops short of making any predictions or recommendations.This should make for an interesting Arab League summit in Algiers in the third week of March. While it's too early to determine what will be on the agenda, it would be a sign of catalepsy if the Arab states were to ignore Lebanon. Syria and the Lebanese government, in turn, will resist this if they feel the debate may harm their interests. The Arab League is a resilient bastion of state sovereignty, as becomes a confederacy of thugs. But Egypt and Saudi Arabia might be tempted to address the Lebanese issue so as not to be circumvented by the UN, the U.S. and France. And, to be effective, they will have to move beyond discussion of Taif, with its intimation of a Syrian redeployment, to include the full withdrawal demand of Resolution 1559.
In response to the outcry, the Syrian Foreign Ministry is making conciliatory noises, though until President al-Assad himself speaks, everything is hot air.
"Syria expresses its keen interest in cooperating with the envoy of the secretary-general of the United Nations to accomplish his mission in the best formula possible," Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Waleed al-Mualem told reporters. "The important withdrawals that have been carried out so far and will be carried out later will be done in agreement with Lebanon against the backdrop of the Taif Accord and the mechanisms it entails."At the same time, Lebanese officials are speaking more committally about the Syrians' intentions. This, of course, is easy to do since they bear no direct responsibility for Syria's actions or lack thereof. The Guardian reports:
Lebanese Defense Minister Abdul-Rahim Murad said the troops will be withdrawn to the eastern Bekaa Valley on the Syrian border, but he gave no timeframe. Lebanese and Syrian military officers have begun meetings to define "the dates and the way" the withdrawal will take place, Murad said, adding that the pullback was in line with the Arab-brokered Taif agreement that ended Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war.The international community is chiming in. Jordan, France, and the United States have all called for a complete withdrawal. This is, however, nothing new. I am firmly of the opinion that internal, not external, pressure will be the only way to budge the Syrians. Continued protests, civil disobedience, and cross-cutting vocal opposition to the Syrian presence will be the only way to convince the latter that they are truly unwelcome. What's more, the Lebanese need to prove that they can self-govern. This battle for liberation may ironically fulfill the Syrian's stated goal of bringing order and unity to their neighbor.
The Lebanese blogosphere chimes in as well. "Bob" has an emotive journal of the fallout from Hariri's death on a gut level. The first of his three entries details hearing the explosion from less than a kilometer away. His gripping account finally concludes:
On that day echoes of the churches bells from the Christian side mingled with the reverberation of the muezzin's chants from the Muslim side, above a square filled with Lebanese weeping for another slain national leader.
I am convinced that it is Bob, not Bush and Chirac, who can drive Syria out of Lebanon.
Posted by Chops at February 24, 2005 04:38 PMChops,
Timely article.
Insisting Syria withdraw from Lebanon makes a great causus belli for the US. The US is shocked! Shocked! That one country would occupy another. There’s just one problem. What if Syria withdraws?
For those with short memories, Syria went into Lebanon after the Lebanese government fell apart in a civil war, and proved unable to control the Bekaa Valley. There was tacit international acceptance, and even encouragement, of this
solution to the anarchy in southern Lebanon.
Anyone remember the US attempt to control southern Lebanon under Reagan? Remember how a series of attacks against troops seemed to escalate? And how Reagan said withdrawal from Lebanon would be a surrender, “and we will never surrender.” But then 242 marines died in a bombing, and the US withdraw. Reagan… well… surrendered.
Three days later we invaded Grenada. Ah, maybe everyone forgot those poor dead marines. So pump fists in the air, everybody, and chant “USA! USA! USA!”
If, and when, Syria withdraws, what then? Remember, Syria is predominantly Sunni. The most problematic organization in southern Lebanon is Hezbollah, which is Shia. Who, exactly, is going to sit on Hezbollah? The Lebanese government? Israel? The US? Does anyone seriously believe Syria is causing, rather than preventing, conflict between Christians & Muslims? Does anyone seriously believe the Syrians conducted the recent assassination? Oh wait. The US accused Syria without any proof whatsoever. So it must be true.
It’s such a wonderful justification for war, demanding Syria withdraw. But be careful what you wish for…
Posted by: phx8 at February 24, 2005 06:00 PMPhx8 -
Much of what you say is true. However, it’s important to note that the U.S. was a long way back in the line of folks blaming Syria. Hariri had been actively opposing them for some time, and it’s other Arabs who have been the primary finger-pointers at Syria.
The best thing about this conflict is that the U.S. isn’t really involved. This is an Arab-led independence movement by Lebanese folks (disclaimer: I’m part Lebanese) against an unrepresentative foreign government. The U.S. is doing exactly what it should: making noise and nothing more.
A free Lebanese state could be the greatest ally of freedom in the Middle East. Many observers forget that the Arab world had a thriving democracy until 1975. Building a functional Lebanon won’t be easy, but if it can be done, my motherland could once again be the center of modern Arab culture and a bridge between the East and West.
Posted by: Chops at February 24, 2005 06:32 PMChops,
Yes, at one time Lebanon was ‘the Switzerland of the Middle East.’ Hariri was a good man. A relative of mine worked with him in person, business, and had nothing but good things to say about him. Hariri was aware of the danger, but joked about it, laughed it off, and in the course of rebuilding and doing business, tried to make the country a better place for everyone. Truly a shame to see that happen.
Like I said, Syria withdrawing from Lebanon sounds good, but I sure hope someone has a good, carefully conceived Plan B for when the Syrians leave. It’s much more complex than the news media let on.
Posted by: phx8 at February 24, 2005 06:56 PMChops, excellent article. Phx8, great post.
Looks like Syria will coordinate the withdrawal with the UN, but phx8 is right. Without a strong internal security force of its own, it could get hairy. I’ve got my fingers crossed.
