Republicans & Conservatives: Archives

I don’t understand why the US has lifted the Security after the Elections. They were successful in making Iraq’s Streets safe for once. All they had to do to ensure Peace was to ban all Vehicles from the road, banned all forms of cellphones and banned all public gatherings greater than 10. Why can’t we continue that? Surely, the Peace obtained would be worth more than some minor irritation? Now we are seeing the violence rise again. We should have extended the Security Efforts indefinitely after the Election.

I read some of the links. It is good to read more positive things.
I believe that Iraq has a good chance to become more of a democracy than a dictatorship because the people are not isolated like in the past. They know more of what goes on around the world and know which way they prefer to live.
It won’t be as easy for a government to control by violence as it once was.

I think the election was the smartest thing we did. I’m a Thomas Friedman type liberal.

Anything we do that puts power into the hands of the Iraqi people is something that I’m for.

Now, if we can wage a “shock and awe” reconstruction campaign in Fallujah, then I’ll be really impressed.

Julia

We’ll see how ya’ll change your tune in 5 to 10 years when Iraq has chalked up another trillion or so dollars to our then 12 to 14 trillion national debt and you screaming UNCLE for tax relief.

Costs, nothing good comes without cost, and many good things cost far more other good things that could have been, and sometimes, just plain too much.

David, isn’t your post a bit off-topic? The discussion is supposed to be about “Iraqi bloggers weigh in”, not “American tax dollars at work”. Let’s talk about what the Iraqis think, not what the Americans think.

I’m just trying to keep consistent with the same logic you’re exercising, i.e. your "Whole new future!" post.

Ok, Ghandi, point taken. What about the cost of civil war in Iraq for the Iraqi people. The potential for civil war still looms as the greatest threat to the entire Bush Iraq policy, which is precisely why Bush, et.al. continue to caution the American people that there is still a great deal to do and accomplish before the policy of invading, nation creating and building can be called a success.

You see, it is not possible to discuss the Iraqi people or their future without referencing Bush who owns everything that happens in Iraq, so far. I hope the day comes when history can look upon what happens in Iraq as belonging to the Iraqi people, but, we are a long way from that point, yet.

I’ll try to deliver a balanced response. Wall Street reports the following:

“Iraq’s largest and most-influential Sunni political group, meanwhile, recently said it would abandon its election boycott in exchange for a pullout timetable, and has made withdrawal a condition for rejoining Iraq’s political process…

The United Iraqi Alliance, the Shiite political collective expected to dominate the Jan. 30 voting, has a plank in its platform promising to demand a timetable for withdrawal…

The likely compromise: Shiite leaders privately acknowledge that the country’s security personnel aren’t yet up to defeating the insurgency, and say they are willing to accept an American presence until more Iraqi security forces come on line.”

This was all news before the election. Sources I’m reading seem to suggest a three-year timespan before Iraqi forces will be fully prepared to take over and deal with the insurgency. That’s how long U.S. advisors estimate it would take to form an elite 25,000 counterinsurgency force that includes riot police, SWAT teams and commandos.

Civil war? I don’t believe it won’t happen - and a “successful” civil war couldn’t happen until the U.S. pulls out anyway; three years should be enough time to form a large and well-trained Iraqi army that can deal efficiently with revolts. What I could imagine happening is a rift between Sunnis/Shiites similar to the post-civil-war divide in the U.S., where Shiites control the legislative process through majority rule. However, I also think that Shiites will be smart enough not to swing their weight around the way that the North did over the South. Their desire to produce a successful form of government will get them to compromise and give Sunnis a disproportionate say in government, at least in the beginning. This doesn’t have to be a huge loss for democracy. It’s akin to Rhode Island voters, as individuals, having more control than California voters because each state elects two senators.

To aquese to Iraqi requests, the Bush Administration could release within the next two months a segmented timeline of estimates, based on certain consecutive tasks that need to be accomplished, rather than releasing a three-year deadline for “handover of all control to Iraqis”. This allows the Iraqis to have influence over that timeline. A very rough example:

MILITARY
Level 1: Iraqi police take control of all patrols within towns & cities (9-12 month estimate)

Level 2 (timeline begins on completion of Level 1): Iraqi special forces take control of small-scale paramilitary operations involving arrests and assasinations of insurgents within towns & cites. Iraqi national guard takes over control of all patrols within the country, except for borders. U.S. forces continue to help with large-scale assaults and intelligence gathering. (9-12 month estimate)

Level 3 (timeline begins on completion of Level 2): Iraqi army patrols borders; Iraqi special forces function independently; only 30-40,000 U.S. soldiers remain in Iraq to continue facilitating advanced training and reconstruction. Some U.S. forces will remain in the country indefiniately. (12-15 month estimate)

There would be similar timelines for developing the legal system, reconstruction, etc, but this loose timeline compromise would satisfy Sunni demands and get them more involved in democratic processes, without setting unrealistic deadlines and allowing flexibility for the U.S. meet them with less political pressure.

Reconstruction funding from the U.S. will probably continue for years, even decades, but will decrease substantially after the first couple years. After that our economy may begin to see some significant payback from increased trade and cheaper oil.

As for other ideas, I suggest we all keep visiting Iraqi blogs to see what they have to say. More speculation on my part would detract from the topic.

3 Years sounds good to me. That gives just enough time for Bush to give Iraq’s Oil Industry to Halliburton. Where are you going to find Troops when we have massive shortages even now? Too bad we can’t forcibly enlist www.studentsforwar.com for the shortfall.

Gandhi, thank you for your informative response. This is hopeful information for the Iraqis. I certainly hope such a plan is implemented and carried out succesfully.

The tricky issue with Iraq is there are only a very small number of specific scenarios that result in a successful outcome that, all told, results in more good than harm was done to achieve it. But, there are many times that number of events that could mire the outcome in years or even decades of great harm and loss, especially when large numbers of humans have a vested interest in derailing success.

Fingers crossed and hopeful…

Hence the use of flexible timelines :)

I just had a novel idea for what we could have done in Sunni areas during the elections. Initiate a complete curfew and have the Iraqi police go door-to-door with ballots. Then no one knows who voted, and most people who are too afraid (or apethetic) to vote end up voting.

There are some issues to be raised with such a process, though: should/could we make voting mandatory, as in Australia, and would doing that compromise the democratic values that we’re trying to instill in Iraqis? This might successfully break the boycott, but have other consequences as well. Would going door-to-door constitute “free elections”? Would this make it more difficult to eventually transition to open elections, or could the country perhaps even keep this model?

To all who reply, please respond from a practical standpoint, not a political one.

I don’t think you could do the door to door police thing. In particular, if I had a policeman at my door who handed me a ballot, it would frighten me. I would wonder if the policemen would check my ballot. Now they know exactly where I live. Maybe they’re not really policemen. etc. etc.

Hey, does anyone know how Afghanistan is doing since their elections? Do they still have the warlord, murder, rape problems? Did the roads ever get built?

Julia

Julia, don’t know about the rapes, but, the warlords are still in control of much of the country - though many of them are playing both sides of the fence from what I have read. Many are working with the government up to the point of relinquishing any real control over their territories. That does however, mean they are granting their people a great deal they would not have before.

The implication is that the US and Afghan government, while increasing benefits of a more peaceful nation overall, are not anywhere near creating the kind of freedom and democracy intended - primarily due to the fact that the nation’s economy remains dependent upon their chief exports, opium and poppies.

That of course means a kind of underworld mafia is running much of the country. Afghanistan is headed toward becoming another Colombia complete with cartels and corrupt government officials being bought and sold and murdered depending upon their influence upon the cartels. No one seems to have any idea how to proceed from here with regard to the economy. Afghanistan could become a money pit if external nations try to convert its export base. But, if they don’t convert it, corruption will reign Afghanistan’s future.

Their desire to produce a successful form of government will get them to compromise and give Sunnis a disproportionate say in government

That’s a stretch. Why would they do that? Why not just dominate the Sunni minority while the US Marines deal with the Sunni insurgency?

Gandhi, those are all good ideas. I’m sure if you were running the country, things would have turned out better. But you’re not. And nothing like your timelines has been proposed by the administration.