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New polls have Kerry leading big, tied with Bush

A new Los Angeles Times poll has President Bush trailing Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry by seven points, 44-51. That was yesterday. And from the LA Times. We should know better.

Ironically enough, an Opinion Dynamics Corporation poll for Fox News also released Thursday has the two in a statistical dead heat, Kerry leading 45-43 inside an error margin of 3 percentage points.

Both polls overlapped on Jun. 8, the ODC poll taking place Jun. 8-9 while the Times' poll started Saturday and worked its way into Tuesday of this week.

Some findings of the ODC poll:

The poll finds optimism about the nation's economy and continued majority support for military action in Iraq. On the economy, today 53 percent believe it is recovering, up from 45 percent in late March. A 55 percent majority feels optimistic about the country's economy right now and 38 percent pessimistic, a sentiment that is essentially unchanged for over a year.

"A belief in a strong national economy is crucial to the reelection chances of an incumbent president, and this year is no exception," notes Opinion Dynamics Corporation Senior Account Executive Lawrence Shiman. "The increase in the percentage of the public saying the economy is improving is a positive development for the president."

And even though Kerry was credited with a large lead in the Times' poll, Kerry voters say they don't know enough about the man they are willing to cast a vote for.

More than a third of those surveyed said they don't know enough about Kerry to decide whether he will make a better president than Bush. Asked who is more likely to flip-flop on issues, they chose Kerry by 2 to 1.

I'd chalk it up to more of an anti-Bush vote over anything else. But considering the more recent nature of the ODC poll, coupled with the LA Times' penchant for Bush-bashing, one poll seems just a tad bit more believable. After all, the Times' did once before bring us an aggressive American coalition soldier in Iraq, conjured up from two distinct photos

Update: A new AP poll has Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards in another statistical dead heat, as well as in a Bush-Cheney vs. Kerry-Gephardt match-up.

The AP-Ipsos poll of 788 registered voters was conducted Monday to Wednesday. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For the responses of subgroups, it was slightly larger: 5 percentage points for Democrats, 5.5 percentage points for Republicans.

In hypothetical matchups against the GOP ticket:

_Kerry-Edwards had 47 percent to 44 percent for Bush-Cheney.

_Bush-Cheney had 47 percent to 45 percent for Kerry-Gephardt.

_Bush-Cheney had 47 percent to 43 percent for Kerry-Vilsack and for Kerry-Clark.

Update 2: The Washington Times has the goods on the LA Times poll in question

According to a statement from Times polling director Susan Pinkus yesterday, the political affiliation among the poll respondents was 38 percent Democratic, 25 percent Republican and 24 percent independent — which she said was on par with Times polls dating to 2001.

The proportion also lines up with national figures when the margin of error — plus or minus three percentage points — is taken into account, she said.

And therein lies the rub, according to the two critics.

Mr. Winston called the 13-point gap between Democrats and Republicans "a huge and unheard-of margin. It would usually be more like three or four points, with the Republicans falling in around 35 percent of the respondents."