It's the economy and Iraq stupid

Much was said about Zogby stating that the 2004 presidential election was “Kerry’s to loose”. Zogby uses mostly historical evidence to arrive at his conclusion. The question of course is whether recent historical trends make much sense this year.

I think this election might be closer to 1864. In that year Abraham Lincoln was in a fight for his political life with prospects in November looking pretty dim. The election didn't turn in his favor unitil after the August convention when the Union troops captured Atlanta and gave hope to the voters that the war was winnable.

This is roughly the opinion of Rasmussen Reports Rasmussen does not mention the civil war, but he makes a great case that the election is too close to call, and that the results of the election will turn one way or another depending on the economy and the war in Iraq.

His conclusion is:

When all is said and done, it is the reality in Iraq and the economy will determine the election. If Iraq stabilizes in any way and the economy improves, the President will be hard to beat. If Iraq deteriorates significantly and the economy fails to improve, the Senator will have the edge.

Rasmussen Reports do not see the election as close with the election going either way depending on events. From what I have read, Rasmussen seems to make the most sense so far. All of this trying to convince each other may be not all that important. The real election is being played out in Iraq and in our pocket books.

Posted by Craig Holmes at May 19, 2004 6:56 PM