Democrats & Liberals Archives

Public Sector Still Slowing Job Gains

Comparing public and private sector job growth to other recessions shows a pretty stark contrast.

First of all before I continue, I apologize to anyone who might have been enjoying my monthly discussion of the BLS employment situation. I know there's one or two folks still around that like them and I really enjoy the comment threads that come from it. I've missed the last two months of reports because my life is so hectic right now. My wife and I have a foster home now with three kids ages 3, 2 and an infant. Going from zero to three kids in just a few months is about as good of an excuse as anyone can come up with for their life being turned upside down and their priorities shifted. It's my plan though to continue writing about the economy as often as I can going forward and of course midterms are this year so that will be exciting.

Now, about the jobs. A chart comparing private sector job growth shows this recovery being pretty much in line with other recoveries as far as the upward trajectory goes. We're starting from a deep hole though and it's hard to climb out when a key piece of the economy is still shedding jobs or at most treading water every month.

So what is that key piece? Take a look at the same type of chart measuring public sector jobs. Note the dramatic difference between this recovery and the other recoveries. Over about an eight year span the public sector has usually been good for about two million new jobs. In this recovery we are still in the negative after five years.

Imagine an economy where another million and a quarter people were employed right now instead of unemployed. That's the difference between the slow frustrating recovery we've had and a recovery more like that under President Reagan.

Public sector job losses have been a drag from the beginning of the recovery. Losses have slowed in the last few months but until state local and federal governments are hiring back again instead of just staying steady the recovery will still be lacking.

Posted by Adam Ducker at March 10, 2014 10:57 AM
Comments
Comment #377271

Adam, the simple truth is that the economy is not healthy, it hasn’t been healthy for over 20 years. Manipulation of the market has a price and that price has come due. High unemployment is not healthy, 0 percent interest rates is not healthy. A situation where money is essentially free to borrow for financial institutions just insures that bankers and wall street financial houses will get super rich while middle class and lower class individuals will be paying that price without any incentive to save.

Private debt is skyrocketing because saving is useless. Governmental debt is skyrocketing because no one wants to make the hard choices today for a sounder economy tomorrow. As cliche as it is, borrowing from our grandchildren for better times now is not a sound choice to make.

We are trading one boom for another bust as we have since the early 90s, just to make sure that we have the good times now. Current asset prices are so inflated now that they are actually higher than they were in 2007 before the crash then. But the ‘assets’ are, just as they were then, not real, but based on borrowed and invented pricing.

Right now, the global governmental debt is 100 Trillion. In 2007, it was just 70 Trillion. That’s 30 Trillion borrowed by governments in just seven short years. If that is austerity, I don’t want to see what non-austerity looks like…

Posted by: Rhinehold at March 10, 2014 7:34 PM
Comment #377272

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1403b.htm

Global debt markets have grown to an estimated $100 trillion (in amounts outstanding) in mid-2013 (Graph C, left-hand panel), up from $70 trillion in mid-2007. Growth has been uneven across the main market segments. Active issuance by governments and non-financial corporations has lifted the share of domestically issued bonds, whereas more restrained activity by financial institutions has held back international issuance (Graph C, left-hand panel).

Not surprisingly, given the significant expansion in government spending in recent years, governments (including central, state and local governments) have been the largest debt issuers (Graph C, left-hand panel).

Posted by: Rhinehold at March 10, 2014 7:38 PM
Comment #377273

Can’t argue with a thing you’ve written Rhinehold. The “sheeple” just keep buying into the bullshit Washington peddles.

Posted by: Royal Flush at March 10, 2014 7:40 PM
Comment #377274

The actions in Ohio by the Republican Party sure don’t help…

http://www.isidewith.com/news/article/exclusive-federal-lawsuit-filed-after-ohio-kicks-libertarian-can

Already twice in the past few months the Ohio State Legislature, which is overwhelmingly controlled by Republicans has created two bills that would strip the Libertarian Party of the ballot access. Both of those bills were signed into law by Governor John Kasich, both of those bills halted by a federal judge.

In this latest case, Secretary of State Husted, a Republican, said he had adopted a hearing officer’s recommendations in disqualifying Charlie Earl. The decision came after two protests were made against the process by which Earl gained enough voter signatures to be on the primary ballot.

The Libertarian Party needed 500 registered voters to sign a petition in order to gain primary ballot access. The party hired a professional firm to gather those signatures. In all, just under 1,500 signatures were gathered, turned in and verified by various county clerks across the state as well as by the Secretary of State’s office. Then came two challenges to those signatures. The first claim alleged that the people who were hired to collect signatures on nominating petitions from registered voters did not disclose who had employed them, as required by law. The second claim alleged that the firm collecting signatures were not Libertarians or independents, as required by Ohio law. That second claim was disproven in a hearing.

On the first claim however, one independent contractor who collected signatures did not disclose the name of the enitiy that hired him. That contractor testified in Friday’s hearing that he has collected signatures for ballot initiatives in Ohio for 12 years and during that time has never once disclosed his employer and yet this is the first time any petition has ever been rejected. The contractor went on to say that he does not disclose his employer because he is an independent contractor.

Saturday night a federal lawsuit was filed by the LP’s attorney Mark Brown. Brown is looking for a judge to rule on this issue and recognize the pattern of behavior by the Ohio Republican Party to stop any challenge that might harm Gov. John Kasich’s re-election chances.

Why are they fighting so hard?

So why is the Republican Party so desperate to stop Libertarians from being on the ballot? Governor Kasich has embraced a number of issues that have angered conservative and Tea Party voters across the state including a massive Medicaid expansion, lack of transparency in his public/private Jobs Ohio board and most recently, the Governor’s support of Common Core.

Meanwhile, the Libertarian Party is growing in Ohio. In the 2010 election when Kasich defeated then Governor Ted Strickland, Kasich only won by a 2% margin, 49% to 47%. At that time the Libertarians took about 2% of the vote. This time around, the Libertarian Party could take anywhere from 5% to 10% of the vote and could not only cause Kasich to lose his place in the Governor’s mansion but would harm any possible hopes for a future Presidential run.

Posted by: Rhinehold at March 10, 2014 7:46 PM
Comment #377275

Should the R’s win the senate and keep the house this year it won’t make much difference. Both parties are big spenders at our expense. Most people vote their pocketbooks without even knowing their pockets are being picked.

Posted by: Royal Flush at March 10, 2014 7:46 PM
Comment #377276

Yeah, there are no real leaders, there are no new answers being considered as viable, the FED is just guessing now… People just seem to think it will all work out on it’s own I guess. As long as they get low cost entertainment and new cell phones every year, who cares?

Posted by: Rhinehold at March 10, 2014 7:59 PM
Comment #377279

Adam

Good luck with the new life stage. Hope you can continue to write.

I am becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economy. I don’t really blame Obama, but I think we have lost the spark. We Americans used to be innovators who did lots of things half-fast but we did so much it worked. Now we have become more cautious. Instead of worrying about growth, we worry about equality. It is always “how will this affect the poor, blacks, women, gays …” instead of “How will this affect Americans?”

This is no way to run a country. If something is generally good for America, in the long run it will be good for the various groups. If not, let them change and adapt. That is what Americans do, or at least what we did when we were doing better.

We have too often let the perfect become the enemy of the good. I read an article today about prairie chickens. They are semi endangered. We have policies in place to protect them, but there are calls to protect them all over. Who cares if they become “locally extinct?” We can reintroduce them if we want later on. This is symptom of the same malady of protecting each group.

Any progress will create some winners and losers. If we try to protect everybody, we can do nothing.

Posted by: CJ at March 10, 2014 9:48 PM
Comment #377282

CJ:

We’re seeing the results of changing demographics but there’s no need to be a pessimist I don’t think. We tend to face our challenges and solve them over time leaving those who predict dire long term conditions looking a bit foolish. There will always be trouble in the short term as far as boom and bust but I think the next few years are going to be better than the last and the next few decades we’ll find plenty to be positive about.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at March 11, 2014 7:50 AM
Comment #377283

…I think the next few years are going to be better than the last and the next few decades we’ll find plenty to be positive about.
Posted by: Adam Ducker at March 11, 2014 7:50 AM

Adam, please share the reasons for your optimism in real terms.

Posted by: Royal Flush at March 11, 2014 5:36 PM
Comment #377293

Royal, just a few reasons I remain optimistic about the economy:

1. Cheap US energy will bring millions of manufacturing jobs back to the country over the next decade reversing the trend

2. The housing market will continue to improve which has been a major drag on the recovery

3. The aging population will be a problem of the past by 2020 and the working age population in large will be considerably younger and better educated than it was just a few years ago

Posted by: Adam Ducker at March 12, 2014 3:34 PM
Comment #377299

Thanks Adam. We missed you last month but given the undertaking you have begun it is understandable and admirable. I like your optimism and have always got that from your postings about jobs. Let’s just hope the public sector can recover and start moving again. I am certain that you will use that same optimism in your latest endeavor and I wish you good fortunes and fair winds.

Posted by: Speak4all at March 13, 2014 3:32 PM
Comment #377352
The aging population will be a problem of the past by 2020 and the working age population in large will be considerably younger and better educated than it was just a few years ago

I’m actually confused a bit by this one, Adam…

How is the aging population going to be a problem of the past when 16% of our debt is held by funds from the social security trust fund, put in place to handle social security payments of the baby boomers, who are now going to be retiring? Since the incoming work force is smaller, what is our spending plan to pay their promised social security benefits since we squandered that trust fund and have no plan in place to actually deal with it?

Interest rates at some point have to go up or this economy is going to be a laughing stock, so financing that debt is going to get even more expensive…

Posted by: Rhinehold at March 16, 2014 4:43 AM
Comment #377355

So the lack of more government jobs is the problem?

Posted by: D.a.n at March 16, 2014 1:26 PM
Comment #377356

Plot GDP in 2005 dollars, and GDP has been negative sine 2006.

All the results of decades of these abuses’ and a general decay as more and more people struggle harder for less and less.

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Comment #377463

benite, you sound like a well rounded citizen. Wouldn’t you agree that what we need is a new third party w/a/dif/pol/att..??

Otheerwise, - - -

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Comment #377464

benite, you sound like a well rounded citizen. Wouldn’t you agree that what we need is a new third party w/a/dif/pol/att..??

Otheerwise, - - -

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Hurd, a fan of the Hulk since her early years, also said she’s happy to wait until the time is right for the follow up.

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