Democrats & Liberals Archives

Luntz tell the truth about election

You know it’s bad when even Frank Luntz can’t spin away the truth.

Here is Luntz speaking recently on Fox News:

This is a bad day for establishment pollsters and it's something that they should be held accountable for. You have to tell your clients the truth, and you have to be accurate. To miss so many states and to be this far off, your Fox News viewers ought to be outraged. Day in and day out they were told that Mitt Romney was gonna win. The fact is Ohio was never up, Wisconsin was never up, Pennsilvania was never up. The states Iowa, New Hampshire, state after state were never up. The published polls were correct, Nate Silver was correct, but the Republican establishment polls were wrong.

I rarely agree with Luntz and his methods but I can't argue with those statements. We witnessed even on this site how far removed from reality the conservative movement was on the state of the race.

The right with the help of Fox News and Rush Limbaugh and other big right wing media figures largely constructed an alternate reality that did not and could not line up with polls based on empirical reality. Some like Luntz have correctly started to question the establishment, and others have simply continued to question reality and suggest Obama simply stole the election.

The right was correct that President Obama's support was way down. He won with about 7 million fewer votes than last time out. But Romney ended up at about 1 million fewer than McCain. That 1 million is much more significant in my opinion. It shows that in the end Romney did not drive voter enthusiasm like the right had hoped and what enthusiasm there was was apparently cancelled out so much that Romney could only fall just short of 2008 totals.

Posted by Adam Ducker at November 13, 2012 8:37 AM
Comments
Comment #357012

Luntz, a pollster? I would think propagandist is a better description.

Good piece Adam. What we need to remember is this is not a one time issue with the conservative media. This is an everyday issue. Faux with the “what changed” message is proof of the ongoing myths conservatives are asked to and do believe. Nothing changes between the final polls and the election guys, who would ask such a foolish question unless they are trying to direct your thoughts to this “one time thing” which it isn’t.

Posted by: j2t2 at November 13, 2012 10:54 AM
Comment #357013

Republicans just refused to accept that those who want more government and fewer individual rights now make up the majority. That that majority favors a leftist democracy over a Constitutional Republic.

The dependency of the urban population and the ever growing immigration from leftist countries, both legal and illegal, have pointed to this shift for a while now.

IMO, Republicans and Conservatives chose to ignore these trends in order to hold onto the countrys history and culture. Now they are paying the price. Todays Republican is tomorrows democrat.

Posted by: kctim at November 13, 2012 11:22 AM
Comment #357016
The right with the help of Fox News and Rush Limbaugh and other big right wing media figures largely constructed an alternate reality that did not and could not line up with polls based on empirical reality. Some like Luntz have correctly started to question the establishment,

There’s no way can applaud Luntz — because he is GOP establishment. His twisting of words has played a major role in helping to construct the alternate reality that so many on the right are living in.

Posted by: Adrienne at November 13, 2012 12:45 PM
Comment #357021

Adrienne:

I agree about the twisting. I forget who it was but at least one conservative on Watchblog was very upset over the re-framing that President Obama was using about the “you didn’t build that” uproar. Luntz has been at it for the right for a long, long time. Toss Lee Atwater in there and it goes back even further. But of course when the left does it then the right screams Goebbels and Riefenstahl.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 13, 2012 1:15 PM
Comment #357022
His twisting of words has played a major role in helping to construct the alternate reality that so many on the right are living in.

He basically taught the Republican party the Big Lie technique introduced by Joseph Goebbels in Germany prior to WWII. But, unlike most of the twits they trot out on Faux Nooz (I’m looking at you, Dick Morris), he’s not stupid and can see that the leadership of the Republican party swallowed their own BS.

Posted by: Mental Wimp at November 13, 2012 1:17 PM
Comment #357028

It’w worth remembering so many Repubicans remained silent while the lies were thrown out there in the months before the election. The Republican convention was great. Clint Eastwood nailed it. There was no bounce because the polls were skewed. The Democratic convention was terrible. The bounce was because the polls were skewed. The unemployment reports were fixed to make Obama look better. The list goes on and on.

These lies extend beyond the partisanship of the election. The lies extended to Global Warming, Birtherism, that Obama and Democrats were socialists and communists, and more.

And during all that time, where were the Republicans? No one repudiated these lies. No one stepped up. No one called the party on its alternative reality, a reality built out of lies, and protected by an echo chamber. It turned out that echo chamber was no more substantial than a soap bubble. It popped when it touched reality.

And those Republicans, those conservatives, have learned precisely nothing. Some of the saner ones point out that what the party is doing is crazy. But is there any sign the conservatives are turning off FOX, or Rush Limbaugh?

They understand the problem with demographics, but cannot conceive of the idea that it’s caused by policies, tone, and attitude.

Posted by: phx8 at November 13, 2012 2:54 PM
Comment #357032

Phx8: “But is there any sign the conservatives are turning off FOX, or Rush Limbaugh?”

We’ll have to ask Frank when he returns.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 13, 2012 4:33 PM
Comment #357033

For fiscal 2012, the federal government spent about $2.2 trillion of its $3.7 trillion budget on entitlement programs, while gross annual revenues stood at $2.6 trillion. Add interest on the federal debt of $220 billion to the entitlement payout, and that leaves less than $200 billion to pay for everything else, including defense, transportation, education, and homeland security. So the government makes up the shortfall by borrowing, or printing, money.

Entitlements include Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and means-tested welfare programs, plus veteran benefits, unemployment pay, disability pay, and more.

Over the last 10 years, the federal government has imposed 38,000 new rules, bringing the total number of pages of rules to 169,301 at the end of 2011. In 1975, the annual report to Congress on federal regulations by the Office of Management and Budget was 71,244 pages.

A Congressional Research Service analysis of a 2008 study that estimated the annual cost of compliance for all federal regulations at $1.7 trillion that year.

Seventy percent of the regulations were economic, accounting for $1.236 trillion of the annual cost. The other regulations were, in order of cost, environment regulations ($281 billion), tax compliance ($160 billion) and occupational safety and health and homeland security ($75 billion).

I am quite confident that we can expect thousands more regulations by the second obama administration.

According to the Phoenix Center for Advanced Legal and Economic Public Policy Studies, every regulator means 100 fewer jobs in the productive sector of the economy.

Based on 50 years of data and modern econometric methods, the Phoenix Center estimates, “Even a small 5 percent reduction in the regulatory budget (about $2.8 billion) is estimated to result in about $75 billion in expanded private-sector GDP each year, with an increase in employment by 1.2 million jobs annually.”

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 13, 2012 4:50 PM
Comment #357035
We’ll have to ask Frank when he returns.

Methinks Frank let his *** overload his brain during the campaign, then had nowhere to go after that.

Posted by: jane doe at November 13, 2012 5:05 PM
Comment #357037

I have a question for my learned colleagues…

If we go into recession, or if our economy collapses during the next four years, will it be George W. Bush’s fault?

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 13, 2012 6:14 PM
Comment #357038

Royal Flush,
If we go into recession, will it be Obama’s fault?

Depends on the circumstances. If the Obama administration enacts its agenda without obstruction from the GOP, then yes, Obama will be responsible.

If the GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling and defaults on the debt, then no. That’s on the Republicans.

In response to your other comment… No one likes regulations, especially unnecessary ones. However, no one likes the Great Recession, and the lack of regulation and oversight was a direct cause of the economic collapse.

We’re a big country, over 300 million people, and we share the public commons. There’s a lot to administer for the general welfare of 313 million and a lot of wealth involved. There are important considerations surrounding food, water, air, and land use, the administration of justice, and much much more.

I just don’t see the federal government as a problem. Environmental regulation, tax compliance, and OSHA seem like they are worth every penny.

I’d like it if everything were available for free. That would be great! Until that wonderful day comes, I’ll have to put up with paying taxes and remembering the benefits enjoyed by myself, my wife, my children, and posterity are a direct result of participating in a democratic republic.

Posted by: phx8 at November 13, 2012 6:34 PM
Comment #357039

Royal Flush,

It is disingenuous to claim that the principal “entitlements” of Social Security and Medicare are primarily responsible for the current deficits. Those programs are pay go and are supported by a separate F.I.C.A. taxes. They are not responsible for the current deficits.

The principal budget outlay dependent upon general revenue and, hence, current deficit spending is by far, defense and related expenditures, i.e., veterans benefits, defense related nuclear energy, etc.

Contrary to your assertion, the government does not make up the shortfall in the principal entitlements by “borrowing or printing money.”

By the way, the government does not “print money.” It could, but it does not. The only source for deficit spending is issuance of treasury bonds. Thomas Edison once pointed out the absurdity of the government borrowing money at interest.

Posted by: Rich at November 13, 2012 6:36 PM
Comment #357040

Rich…I could easily argue your points about entitlements not adding to deficit and printing money…but I won’t. It would be useless. I gave my source…argue with the experts quoted.

Most of us understand that treasury bonds pay interest and the Social Security premium dollars are spent in return for a piece of paper.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 13, 2012 6:48 PM
Comment #357041

phx8, I agree that some regulation is necessary. If the study I quoted above is correct, do you believe it might just be excessive? Is there no room to trim both regulations and our spending? Do you defend this number of regulations and all this spending as critical?

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 13, 2012 6:54 PM
Comment #357043

“If the GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling and defaults on the debt, then no. That’s on the Republicans.”

Not really…if there is another way to avoid default offered by the HOR.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 13, 2012 7:01 PM
Comment #357045

I agree with Luntz. I agree with Adan. I agree with phx8. I agree with Royal Flush.

The talking heads had it wrong.

We need to regulate the export of refined fuels (tax them), we need to put an end to hedging on crude by those who never take possession, we need to regulate water, electricity and heating fuels, and we need to make banks go back to being banks and not brokerage houses.

We need set up training programs with fed money to train welders, CNC machine operators, plumbers and elecricians, etc. and we need to make the unemployed receving benefits choose which coarse of study they want to get into. Get into one of have benefits cut.

As Romney said, we need to cut out all extraneous spending if we cannot pay of it withtout borrowing money from China.

We need total tax reform with all loophole plugged or justified.

See how easy it is to get along.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 13, 2012 7:17 PM
Comment #357046
I have a question for my learned colleagues…

If we go into recession, or if our economy collapses during the next four years, will it be George W. Bush’s fault?

I’ll chime in and help answer Royal Flush’s question. Apparently, it will be the Republicans in Congress fault.


If we don’t see an agreement to “avert” the “fiscal cliff” 53% of the citizens will blame Republicans in Congress. Only 29% will blame President Obama.

You see, not everyone sees the political scene through the conservative colored lens. Not everyone is in the right’s bubble.

Go ahead, conservatives, tell me that the Pew Poll is wrong! :-)

Posted by: LibRick at November 13, 2012 7:21 PM
Comment #357047

The commodity market (oil, gold, wheat, corn, currency…etc.) is a worldwide market. Do you believe we could prevent trading in commodities by non-users in every country?

“we need to regulate water, electricity and heating fuels.”

John…surely you jest! Regulate means price control. When has that worked.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 13, 2012 7:30 PM
Comment #357048

LibRick…interesting link. No one knows what will be on the table and yet there are polls being taken. Isn’t that something?

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 13, 2012 7:38 PM
Comment #357049

RF…about 100 yrs ago Teddy Roosevelt broke up monopolies and regulated electricity. It was called the Square Deal. Bigs have gobbled up the small independents, divided up the pie and are having their way with us. Oil, insurance, pharmaceuticals, hospitals, pathology labs, banks…you name it. Yeah, I’m serious.

For instance, why should we build a pipeline carrying really heavy dirty crude from Canada down to the coast of Texas? Is it to make us energy independent, as broadcast? No, not necessarily. The oil will go to Texas refineries, where the dirty emissions will remain, while the refined fuels will be exported to the highest bidder. Just a few months ago, for the first time in history, we are a net exporter of refined fuels. Instead of helping to make the Canadians and the Texas refineries lots of money, why don’t we convert all large trucks to low cost natural gas and never have to buy another barrel of foreign oil again…this accomplished even if cars continue to run on gasoline. Put a small tax on exported hydrocarbons and we help
insure that foreign buyers don’t affect our prices at the pump as much, and we would no longer be allowing worthless middlemen speculators to artificially inflate prices.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 13, 2012 8:21 PM
Comment #357081
Do you believe we could prevent trading in commodities by non-users in every country?

Why not Royal. Do you think people in other countries like to pay more for rice, corn oil etc. so hedge funds can make billions driving the price up?

A good place to start is in this country by simply re-regulating the damage the Gramms have done to the Commodities Market.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2008/05/foreclosure-phil

Posted by: j2t2 at November 14, 2012 12:35 PM
Comment #357087

j2t2, do you ever watch the commodities market with it’s ups and downs? I traded commodities for awhile and I can assure you that prices for commodities do fall as well as rise. Can you name a single commodity price that remains static over a period of time?

You seem to believe that we can force other countries to prevent non-user trading in commodities by your flippant remark…”Why Not.” Tell me how that would work please.

Regarding regulation of energy such as electricity just google all the choices you have as a provider. The same with telephone service, insurance and banking. The choices are many.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 14, 2012 5:15 PM
Comment #357089

RF…prices do rise and fall. No doubt about it. The point is, it is just legalized gambling by middlemen who never take ownership of the commodity item. Hedging was meant to be used by airlines to hedge on fuel to keep from experiencing huge price spikes , and by food corporations to keep raw goods costs, like corn or wheat, relatively level. Same with crude and refiners. Why do we allow middlemen to jack the end cost up?

Texas just deregulated electricity a few years back. ENRON’s Mr. Lay suggested it to then Gov. Bush. This added REP’s ( retail energy suppliers) to the equation who fight for the consumer business. They buy kWh’s on paper from the two large elec generating companies in the state. Who also still sell to consumers. The lowest rate is several cents higher than either Oklahoma or Louisiana, who both have regulated electricity. The industry spends millions each year broadcasting how great it is working. It is a ruse.

Insurance companies have bought up all the smaller companies and divided up the country. Big oil…the same. You won’t find all companies offering their products in every state. They have regions that they control or split up with another. They are in cahoots. No gas wars anymore. No real difference in insurance premiums. All are making obscene profits, even in the “bad” years, because they have us by the you-know-what. We have to have the products they sell.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 14, 2012 6:00 PM
Comment #357092

I, too, think that Luntz is showing a lot of chutzpah by now talking about the conservative bubble. His Orwellian work (hell, he even thinks that’s a positive term, that Orwell would salute his manipulations) is part and parcel of what convinced people that things were a certain way. As much as I can give him credit for admitting his party was in a bubble, He helped construct it. He handed them the bricks in the wall.

It’s not bad to have a different point of view. I’d be the first to say that despite my strong beliefs, they’re necessary. The problem comes when either or any side in a debate lacks enough facts to make wise decisions, and the unfortunate effect of the increasingly effective and strident Republican media machine is the degradation of the facts the GOP depends upon to make good decisions on all levels, from political to policy. Republicans are crippling themselves with their own propaganda.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 14, 2012 6:18 PM
Comment #357093

There you go again John…assuming that prices only rise. You wrote…” Why do we allow middlemen to jack the end cost up?”

There has to be both a buyer and a seller to make a commodity contract. Buyers who don’t use the product themselves bring liquidity to the market as do sellers. I can assure you that there are many losers in the commodity market as well as winners. Liquidity is extremely important in commodity markets to even the market out and help the market to avoid sharp increases and drops. You rail against a market that has worked well to bring commodities to consumers for decades.

The true price of anything can only be measured by the price someone is willing to pay for it.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 14, 2012 6:19 PM
Comment #357096

HEDGERS have an underlying interest in specific delivery or ready delivery contracts and use the futures market to insure themselves against adverse price movement.

SPECULATORS may not have an interest in ready contracts but seek opportunities in price movements. They assume risk which hedgers are trying to transfer in the futures market.

ARBITRAGEURS make simultaneous sale and purchase in two markets to gain from the price difference. They remove price imperfections in different markets.

FORWARDS CONTRACTS are for supply of goods and payment where supply of goods or payment or both take place after 11 days from the date of the contract or where delivery of goods is totally dispensed with.

FUTURE CONTRACTS are contracts in which quantity, quality, date of maturity and place of delivery are standardised and the parties to the contract only decide the price and the number of units to be traded. Bearing standardised, futures contracts are entered into through commodity exchanges.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 14, 2012 7:15 PM
Comment #357097

I don’t think that I ever said that prices only go up, RF. Read the first line of my last post.

What I am saying is that it adds costs to consumer goods in the long run. As I stated before on another thread, Bart Chilton, the current Fed Wall Street guard dog, says that hedgers add up to $14 to the price of a tank of gasoling, depending on what you drive (truck or small auto).
The same is true of a loaf of bread.

I’d leave the Chicago Commodity Exchange as is, but we need to get rid of corn ethnaol subsidies.

The derivatives and hedging rules need overhauling.

As for the Big’s who have gobbled up the small’s, and the Big’s who want to control electricity, water, insurance prices, etc. We need a Square Deal overhaul.

That’s my take on this subject. Been watching it closely since 2007.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 14, 2012 7:31 PM
Comment #357536


Adrienne, Why were there only 10 amendments included in the “Bill Of Rights” legislation?

Let’s go back to 1820 when the Federalist party history was forgotten and the Democratic Party took over the Democratic-Republican party, which fought and won for us the “Bill Of Rights”. The “Bill Of Rights” is also refered to as The First 10 Amendments.

Do you agree with that statement, Adrienne? The Bill of Rights is also refered to as The First 10 Amendments? Yes?

Adrienne, Why were there only 10 amendments included in the “Bill Of Rights” legislation?

Perhaps the flaw in our beloved Constitution rests in the article numbered 5.

This article enabled a select few to modify our Constitution. The select few, with the verbal and economic ability to convince the many, is empowered to change our Constitution. We, the many, do not have this option available to us.

We are spectators to this spectical!

Why do those two words sound the same, almost?

d.a.n, Warped Reality, Yucon Jack, Ron Brown, many others,

We go way back. Do you want to go the way of Rush, who admits this election may be the greatest theft perpetrated on the American People? Or, Do you want to go the way of Juan Hannity, who wants to put a good face on this and wait until the next election?

Should we wait for another election when this one was taken from us? Should we convince ourselves we have another chance in the next election when this election was taken from us?

Should we do the same thing again, and expect different results?

d.a.n, I swear to God you need to start whipping these people into shape. Get back into the game.

Yukon Jack, Ron Brown, Warped Reality, They have returned to WatchBlog to express their opinion.

I don’t claim any alliegence to any party. I never have. Nor have any of the monikers I have mentioned expressed alliegence to any party, to my knowledge.

I’m very happy to see Ron Brown, a community organizer, a school board member, return to WatchBlog. I am relieved to see Warped Reality return to WatchBlog. I am relieved to see these, and other familiar monikers return to WatchBlog to express their opinion.

I hope we are not beaten down by the likes of Stephen Daugherty, with his unquestionable knowledge, or Adrienne’s new found ability to construct a paragraph. I’m not going to be defeated by fly-by rumor either.

Nor will you!

Let’s pick ourselves up out of this dirt and try agian.


We don’t owe it to our country, we owe it to ourselves.


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