President Obama Delcared Winner of Florida
The president was awarded 29 more electoral votes today bringing his total to 332 and he leads the popular vote by 3.2 million votes 50.6% to 47.9%. In the end he lost only Indiana and North Carolina and North Carolina was a state he barely won last time anyway. That’s not too shabby.
Since the president won reelection I've just been sort of in a haze. I've spent the better part of three years looking at every event, news item, or economic report at home and abroad in the lens of how it will effect President Obama and his re-election hopes. Now it's all decided, every state marked down, and almost every vote counted. Now what? What next?
So to the great disappointment of Republicans, in the end President Obama is the most electorally successful Democrat since FDR. He's the only Democrat since FDR to win two terms and over 50% of the popular vote each time. So that's something I guess for the folks keeping track at home.
Actually though, Obama was only the 3rd Democrat since FDR to run for a second term and now that record is 2-1 with victories for Democrats. I wonder which presumed "failed" president the right will compare Obama to in his second term now that he's been more successful in elections than Carter.
Some folks have stated that Obama is one of the rare cases of winning a second term while winning a smaller percentage of the popular vote. That's true, but this is really going out on a limb to find something bad to say about Obama's victory. Overall winning two (or more) terms is a thing that only 17 of 44 of the presidents have done anyway. It's hardly a large set to go on. It's happened twice with Madison and with Jackson and those men ended up on our currency so maybe Obama is in good company.
It's happened three times if you count the fact that Cleveland won less the 3rd time he ran after winning more the second time he ran but losing the Electoral College. Also FDR won four elections with only the second being higher than the first and the third and fourth lower each time.
But then again not even the great George Washington could win more of the popular vote the second time around than he did the first time. Good company indeed.
Posted by Adam Ducker at November 10, 2012 5:28 PM
You just find that out Adam, Most everyone knew tuesday Obama won Florida, it wasn’t offical though. Now it is so what.
Sorry Obama won, but if he had to win, I am glad he won big enough that we didn’t have to wait for Florida again.
BTW, you know that Jackson conquered Florida for us. But Obama is no Andy Jackson.
More bad news for the regressives. Florida has become a purple state, a state in play for 2016. It appears the reasons for the change are demographic and not likely change quickly. I suspect Scott will only help shift Florida to the left. Beyond his flagrant attempts to rig the election there is the specter of shameful incompetence. Why did it take so long for Florida to report when every other state managed to do so days earlier, including states with much bigger populations whose polls were open hours later. Scott is also front and center in refusing to expand Medicare to the poor in Florida even though the federal government would pay almost all the cost. Claims it’s because of principle. The principle must be,”Screw you. Drop dead”
That won’t go over to well with the new demographic either. The non-Cuban fascist percent of the Hispanic population has grown and is growing. The Republican epiphany about sensible, workable, non-vindictive immigration reform will not help them much with Hispanics.It has to do with the nature and history of the people they will no doubt target. Nearly all of the Hispanic immigrants work with their hands or are one generation away from it. They like unions. They like job protections. They like receiving an honest days pay for an honest days work. They like good schools. They like it when their children can get medical care or afford to go to a public college. In other words everything the Republican Party has opposed or attempted to weaken for years.
The usual boogie men the right uses to frighten working people to vote against their own self interest won’t work to well on Hispanic voters. One of the favorites, the constant refrain of blaming all the working classes problems on immigrants, especially immigrants of color that speak a language other than English.,won’t work to well for obvious reasons but who knows, they may be dumb enough to try it anyway. Another that won’t go over too well is the second amendment ,”there gonna take our guns” paranoia drivel. Many of these people come from countries where there are lots of guns and lots of grief from lots of guns. They also don’t have the John Wayne/cowboy blah blah. In other words, they are not very likely to be much impressed the NRA jingoism.
To a large degree Hispanics, especially immigrants have not had 80 plus years of red baiting/cold war propaganda drummed into them. Their experience of the cold war is likely to have been brutal repression at the hands of some US backed dictator or another .Also remember these are mostly working people, of a class in Latin America that supported Zapata, Villa , Guevara and others. They remember how rightist from the US , using anti-communist rhetoric, supplied monstrous dictators and terrorist with support and weaponry to squash even the slightest worker demand for fair treatment. When the right wing nut jobs call Obama a socialist, its likely to receive a response ranging from”so what” to “good”.At any rate they are unlikely to support the party of the plutocrats.
I suppose they might pick up some about abortion. Not a big percentage. This is mostly a young population. They are also not stupid and the Republicans have been all over the place on abortion rights.The rich will never get rid of abortion. That would make it more complicated to deal with pregnant mistresses.They also know, coming from countries where abortion is illegal, that abortions still happen with the added death of young women from botched procedures.
I don’t think the Republicans are going to have much luck courting Hispanics without a drastic shift in their basic policies . I doubt if they are capable of doing it. Too bad. They and the country would be better for it.
Hesitant to rain on your parade, but would like to share with you a story told to me several months ago by the owner of a company that is a contract packager. They package fruit, candy, dry powders, dry snacks, etc. and most of their business is associated with major holidays…Valenties, Mother’s Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas gift baskets. They are located just outside a mid-sized U.S. city.
There are only three full time employees. She told me that they wanted to pick up some steady year round business and hire several of the part time people and make them full time. They told her they couldn’t do it…if they did they would make too much and lose their government benefits.
These make up a large number of those who voted for O. There are more of them under O than ever before…and the employment numbers are skewed because these who have grown comfortable living on freebies are no longer looking for work. Watch these numbers grow the next four years, and plan on them continuing to vote for those who will continue to take part of workers money to pay those that don’t want to.
More bad news from Nate Silver on Rasmussen:
For the second consecutive election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average.
For the second election in a row Rasmussen was one of the worst performing polling companies. Supporters of Rasmussen are largely riding on their strong performance in 2008 but how many bad elections in a row does Rasmussen need to have before the right admits the polls favor Republicans and aren’t even as accurate as polls like PPP which conservatives quickly dismiss as being Democratic? If your polls aren’t accurate and just tell you want you’d prefer to hear then what good are they?
I wouldn’t harp on Rasmussen too much. I strongly doubt the GOP bias is intentional. Their credo is to sacrifice quality in order to gain a greater quantity of polls at a lower cost. We already have quite a few high quality pollsters out there, we also need someone who can crank out lots of polls quickly at low cost if need be.
Nevertheless, I agree that conservatives need to stop putting Rasmussen on a pedestal due to their 2008 performance. It is clear that they are severely hindered by their methodology. They perform automated calls to landlines only (no cell phones) and they will not call back if someone doesn’t pick up the phone. Most of their polls are conducted in 4 hours and this restriction may exclude many different classes of people. Rasmussen is a pollster just like everyone else. Their results are no better than that of other firms like PPP and are likely inferior to firms that use live-interviewers and call cell phones (the pollsters who contract with the MSM come to mind).
John Johnson: “They told her they couldn’t do it…if they did they would make too much and lose their government benefits.”
She probably needs to sit them down with an accountant or a financial adviser and talk about money with them. They need to get into the numbers. I guess it depends on what benefits they’re talking about, but it’s unlikely that moving to from part time to full time will make them come out behind even after losing the benefits. They probably just don’t know the truth about the math or the people’s full reasoning for declining the offer was greatly simplified over time through retelling of the story.
“These make up a large number of those who voted for O.”
We know based on exit polls that 12% of Americans making under $30,000 a year voted for Obama. That’s not even half of his voters. That’s about 1/4th. But 7% voted for Romney or about 1/6th of his total vote. Under that $30k mark we don’t even know how many voters were making less or not working at all. So, yes, this is a big chunk overall I suppose, but it’s pretty big with Romney as well so I don’t see your point in using these voters to attack Obama.
“There are more of them under O than ever before…and the employment numbers are skewed because these who have grown comfortable living on freebies are no longer looking for work.”
Based on what, though?
I agree. I don’t think the bias is intentional so much as structural. But we understand why conservatives who will tell you polls are meaningless then turn around and cite Rasmussen in the very next breath. Rasmussen supports what their gut tells them about America. In this election it was polling reality 1, alternate gut instinct reality 0.
Funny John. Assuming your story is true and not another bit of conservative mythology the real issue is why would this be a consideration for the people being offered full time employment. Painting the dem voters as being as comfortable with living off the government is the typical smear we see from you guys. Remember the repubs have many people and corporations comfortable with living off the government voting for them.
If the employer doesn’t offer health insurance can you blame these people for being smart about it. Would you want to go bankrupt from health care expenses by taking a job that doesn’t offer a decent insurance plan while gaining a few more hours a week of a minimum wage job?
Until conservatives can understand that employer based health care is the reason for things like this we are doomed to continue our march into third world status. The rest of the world has figured this out years ago and have moved ahead.
You can blame these employees for not jumping at the chance to lose health insurance for a few dollars a month but who you should be pointing the finger at is people just like you. Your foolish attack on these people, blaming them for the results of conservative “reform” the past 30 years, is the kind of divisiveness and demonization we have come to expect from conservatives. Try figuring out why instead of blaming these people for an intelligent decision. Lets solve the problem by allowing them to keep the insurance. Get insurance off the back of employers.
Guess we’ll see who’s right, guys. Ocare is upon us. Those holding back from work because of insurance ought to be coming out of the woodwork if your premise proved true.
Nothing has changed? We may see a lot change, and soon. The Senate Republicans, led by McConnell, have already made it clear they will not compromise. They plan on using the filibuster to block everything.
Senator Reid has threatened to use a procedure that only requires a majority vote to change the rules of the Senate, and do away with the filibuster for some legislation. Now that the threat is on the table, Reid will attempt to peel off five Senate Republicans to join Democrats in crafting legislation. If he can’t five find, then, goodbye filibuster.
Anyone who likes following politics might want to review what happened in 2005, with Democrats & filibusters & The Gang of 14:
The agreement was to limit the use of the filibuster to extraordinary circumstances. Clearly, the GOP has abusesd its use. Now comes the reckoning.
Most of the seven Republican Senators from the Gang of 14 are gone; however, McCain & Graham are still there. If the Democrats can find just three more GOP Senators willing to compromise, they can ignore McConnell and the threat of filibuster from the Tea Party extremists (DeMint and four others).
As I stated, nothing has changed. Find some Repubs to join forces and something mind change. Same scenario. No?
phx8 — the right is hoping that nothing has changed, but of course it has! Completely. The president won, lots of Democrats won, and the media will now be focusing closely on the GOP and their actions. If they still insist on acting like petulant children by trying to obstruct everything and hurt our economy further, the entire nation is going to hear all about it.
In other words the pressure is on, and it is not going to let up until they start acting like grown ups.
Let’s see. Less votes than last time. Not enough votes to control Senate; still got the short straw in the House …and you’re chirping like you just won an “all in” hand.
“If they still insist…the entire nation is going to hear about it??? What do you mean? The half of the country that wants to hear about Bengazi ? The half that wants to know about Petraeus? The half that elected the people that you would never vote for?
It is legacy building time for your Messiah. He will come around like Clinton did. Be prepared for it. Thus far, he has more unfulfilled promises than any Prez in my lifetime. He’s going to try and make himself more attractive for the picture history is going to paint of him.
Some will disagree, but they are stup*d as*ho*es. ( is this an acceptable way of expressing myself without having the guard dogs run out and attack me?)
Any idea what happened to Frank?
No one cares about Benghazi conspiracy theory. No one. Except FOX. There is an unintentionally amusing aspect to that, because one of the GOP’s best candidates for 2016 was Petraeus, and now he’s cooked. The Fast & Furious investigation wasn’t good enough. Now we have this. Perfect for FOX.
And you haven’t learned a thing from this election, have you? You’re still listening to FOX, even though you KNOW beyond all doubt they lied like a rug to you for months and months.
You don’t get it. You really think there are not enough votes to control the Senate. It only takes 51 to institute a change of Senate rules, and get rid of the filibuster. Reid will do it unless either McConnell caves, or a handful of GOP moderates bolt.
Not enough votes to control Senate; still got the short straw in the House …and you’re chirping like you just won an “all in” hand.
John once again your honesty is duly noted. I cannot remember the last time a conservative has been truthful enough on WB to acknowledge the truth about control of the Senate. The threat of a filibuster has made it necessary for a super majority to pass a nominee or a bill into law. A simple majority hasn’t been able to do much lately. You may get some scorn from fellow conservatives who will not acknowledge this so I applaud you.
I will be standing by, like the rest of you, waiting for the first bill to pass muster in both the House and Senate. We’ll see when and how it happens.
With regards to FOX, the program I watch most is Morning Joe on MSNBC. I watch very little cable news in the evenings. I spend most of my nights reading. Rocky and I are members of a book club.
Reid has already made a commitment to changing the Senate rules at the beginning of the new session. He said: “I think the rules have been abused, and we are going to work to change them. We will not do away with the filibuster, but we will make the senate a more meaningful place. We are going to make it so we can get things done.”
Republicans have totally obstructed everything in the Senate up until now, and if Reid really wants to “get things done” without a complete elimination of the filibuster that means he’s going to have to make changes such as getting rid of the ‘filibuster-prior-to-the-filibuster’, and on the ‘anonymous holds’ and the ‘motion to proceed.’ Those changes will force Republicans who want to filibuster to have to stand up and do it instead of being able to fly under the radar, grinding everything to a stop in the Senate by withholding unanimous consent.
Despite what rightwing trolls have to say, there is indeed incentive for rule changes at this moment. Of course the teabaggers (idiotically as usual) immediately tried to filibuster the decision about rules for the filibuster (amazing stupidity!). But if other Senate Republicans have any sense at all (frequently questionable too) they’ll be in favor of transforming the dysfunction that has reigned in the Senate for too long, and realize that if they can manage to retake majority in 2014 they themselves will not wish to be held constant hostage by the minority. They should instead want the ability to make the Senate actually function without constant roadblocks being thrown up.
If the GOP adamantly refuses changes to the rules however, don’t think they won’t end up paying for it eventually; because they will. America desperately need a functional Congress, and if nothing at all happens and they let our economy slide further, people ARE going to notice that the GOP has been the problem. If they insist on being as totally unreasonable as possible, they may well be forced to change their tune in 2014 if they get smacked further down than they just did.
I’m all for it. Let’s see what happens.
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