Democrats & Liberals Archives

My Six Reasons President Obama Will Win A Second Term In Office

It’s been a long strange election season from the Republican clown car primary to the expectations busting Denver debate. Less than twelve hours from now the polls open up on the East coast and Election Day officially begins. I bring you my six reasons I think President Obama will win.

1. Obama leads by nearly 3% or more and is at 50% or near 50% in MI, WI, OH, and PA, and NV giving him 271 Electoral Votes

This is what they call Obama's firewall. A 3% advantage in state polls at this stage is significant and implies Romney has a very slim chance of winning those states. The polls may miss a little but there is a slim chance this many polls will miss by 3% or more. For a Romney landslide to happen as some conservatives predict the polls would have to be more wrong than they've ever been and be historically and critically biased against him. Otherwise the math just is not there for Romney.

2. Obama leads the popular vote in an average of national polls by 0.7%

Going into this last week conservatives were happy to see Romney on top nationally despite the clear signs things weren't going his way in Ohio and Wisconsin like they'd predicted. Now Obama has opened up a slim advantage in the national vote to strengthens his standing even more. Romney has to greatly exceed expectations nationally to overcome what the states are largely saying about this race. He can't break even with Obama nationally and expect to crack the firewall.

3. There aren't that many undecided voters left and they'll mostly split 50/50 anyway

Contrary to the idea that undecided voters will break against the incumbent to help Romney the evidence just isn't there. Romney would need significant numbers of undecided voters to swing his way for this to matter. He'll need nearly 100% in OH, WI, and PA. That's not going to happen.

4. Obama's job approval is at 50%, even in conservative friendly polls like Rasmussen

Obama's approval rating has jumped since the hurricane to levels not seen since bin Laden was killed. Voters will head to the polls tomorrow at a time when a majority of Americans clearly favor the job President Obama is doing and he's grown his support on the question of leadership in a big way. If the right was counting on Obama's rating to be in the toilet by now they will be disappointed.

5. Gas prices continue to decline

Taking some pressure off middle and lower class America, Gasoline is cheaper than it's been in months and continues it's sharp decline. This and the economy in general has not been the anvil the GOP wanted to toss a drowning president. Economic optimism is actually on the rise and it's not because folks assume Romney will win. Folks just feel better about their situation.

6. Latino voters

Last, but not least, the advantage Romney has with whites and with overall conservative enthusiasm is blunted somewhat by record numbers of Latino voters coming out to vote for Obama this year. Top that with the fact that black voters are supporting the president at the same levels as last time despite what the right has predicted this time around.

Posted by Adam Ducker at November 5, 2012 8:03 PM
Comments
Comment #356526

I’ll give you one reason why Obama will lose:

1.) Lack of interest on the side of the left.

Posted by: Frank at November 5, 2012 8:59 PM
Comment #356527

I’ll give you my three reasons O doesn’t win;

1. I don’t trust the conventional polling numbers
2. Love him or hate him, Carl Rove is the smartest prognosticator in U.S.
3. O has lost last undecided’s due to Bengazi and people screaming in New York.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 5, 2012 9:24 PM
Comment #356528

I just laughed so hard I broke wind scared the dog and almost pissed my pants.

Posted by: Jeff at November 5, 2012 9:52 PM
Comment #356531

John Johnson:

1. Why? You say conventional, but what is the alternative?

2. Rove predicted Republicans would keep the House and Senate in 2006. He did predict Obama would win in 2008 though for what it’s worth.

3. There’s only an average about 2% undecided left and there’s no guarantee they’ll even still vote if they haven’t made up their mind by now. If even 15% of undecided break for Obama then Romney loses.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 5, 2012 10:32 PM
Comment #356532

Jeff:

That sounds like something you should be discussing with your family doctor.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 5, 2012 10:32 PM
Comment #356533

Don’t worry folks. Nate Silver still gives Romney a 7.8% chance of winning. You got this thing.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 5, 2012 10:36 PM
Comment #356534

Liberals will have to keep an eye on FL-22 and MN-6 to see if the GOP nuts get re-elected. Unfortunately if Obama wins he’ll most likely face the same Dem Senate and GOP House as right now.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 5, 2012 10:45 PM
Comment #356535

Even if Obama wins, there is absolutely no way he can claim a mandate to do ANYTHING. He could very well lose the popular vote even if he wins the electoral college.

Posted by: Jacquelyn F. Gerlach at November 5, 2012 11:17 PM
Comment #356537

Adam…my alternative is Rove. Furthermore, you are basing your comments of there being only 2% of undecideds on poll figures, and your statement of what their vote will mean on poll figures as well. I think these Prez polls are totally skewed as never before. The I.D. of incoming calls to my fixed phone line are displayed on both my phone and tv screen. I don’t answer them if I don’t recognize the name or number. Who has caller I.D.? Who doesn’t ? It has to make a difference.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 5, 2012 11:23 PM
Comment #356538

Jacquelyn,
If Obama wins, he WINS. And although the Democrats are defending 21 seats and the GOP only 10, the Democrats are actually expected to stay even, or maybe even gain two seats. That is truly remarkable.

If Democrats win 25 seats in the House…

Posted by: phx8 at November 5, 2012 11:28 PM
Comment #356580

Grazie per aver condiviso questo aiuta a liberare, è molto interessante leggere la pena, mi piace il tuo stile di scrittura, romperlo. Mantenere il rilascio di queste informazioni.

Posted by: www.monclermilano.net at November 6, 2012 4:14 AM
Comment #356590

Getting ready to go out and vote this morning. My state (the Commonwealth of Virginia) will be amongst the closest in the country and along with Ohio will help to decide the election. Obama is leading in the polls in both states and he has a terrific turnout machine. Romney is going to lose his home state by 30 points. That says a lot about this man especially considering that Scott Brown is running pretty even in the senate race. If the people you lead for 4 years are rejecting you that doesn’t look good.

Posted by: tcsned at November 6, 2012 6:17 AM
Comment #356592

Jacquelyn F. Gerlach:

Claiming a “mandate” is tricky anyway. The other side will always so no, you didn’t win by enough. They’ll still accuse Obama of cramming every policy down our throats.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 7:22 AM
Comment #356593

Karl Rove? Should I remind you that Karl Rove was around for 2006? He’s not infallible, and you should dread if he becomes influential once again.

Why? Because that man, smart as he may be, is very unwise. His political guidance leads people to ignore very real policy problems, and because of that, people suffer under the leadership of those he promotes.

And that is what lost 2006. You can govern poorly and just forever talk people out of electing somebody else. Ask yourself, if it wasn’t for Rove, would you have Obama? Would America be so sick of Bush style leadership that they turn in the completely opposite direction?

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 7:25 AM
Comment #356595

John Johnson: “I think these Prez polls are totally skewed as never before.”

What’s remarkable is not that it may be true, but that you find conservatives saying that in the last election as well. In fact it’s the same two or three narratives each year.

Doesn’t this argument seem familiar:

IF EXTRAPOLATED TO A REFLECT A MORE ACCURATE ACCOUNTING BY PARTY ID, THE POLL SHOWS THE RACE IS VERY VERY CLOSE!

And this:

In 18 of 20 states this year polls overestimated Obama’s strength by an average of 7%.

And this:

Fascinating take on the skewed political playing field in the United States and how the left might be deluding itself as we head into the end of the campaign.

And this as well:

The polls still say “Obama wins” – narrowly or in a landslide, but “Obama wins” is the universal of the polls. Unless, of course, the pollsters got the demographics for the electorate in 2008 wrong.

Of course there’s also this argument:

…and happened to find myself in the most heavily Democratic area o the Vegas metro area and I didn’t see a single Obama sign or sticker except for one rather lonely lady trying to sell t-shirts with Obama’s picture on them…there wasn’t exactly a crush of people to buy.

And this argument seems familiar as well:

Note that I leave Minnesota in the blue column today, despite the virtual dead heat Survey USA shows in its final polling.

And again:

Since the comments are already going crazy, let me put up a little link to Hot Air North showing Minnessota within the margin of error. … Read ye, KOS kids, and weep.

It could be true this time, but it wasn’t last time. I think the math adds up to a narrow Popular Vote victory and a clear win in the Electoral College. We’ll see.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 7:32 AM
Comment #356596

Obama has already proven himself to not give a crap about a mandate. He just does whatever he wants, hell with what the American people want. Cabinet posts, no problem…just appoint czars, they don’t answer to anyone. Wait until Congress is on break and make appointments. Or just shuffle funds around to pay donors back. He is corrupt…he is from Chicago and that says it all.

Posted by: Frank at November 6, 2012 7:33 AM
Comment #356599

xkcd: Poll Watching

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 7:57 AM
Comment #356600

Stephen/Adam… I said that Rove was one of the best vote prognosticators; I did not say anything about his political advice.

I did not say that the same statement was not heard each year; I said that being inundated with unsolicited calls has resulted in most people affluent enough to have devices with caller I.D. to not answer or participate in polls.
That has to make somewhat of a difference, and as far as I know has not been addressed.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 6, 2012 8:25 AM
Comment #356602

John:

Again, here’s Karl Rove in 2006:

ROVE: Yeah, I’m looking at all these, Robert, and adding them up, and I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math, but you’re entitled to your math, I’m entitled to THE math.

SIEGEL: Well, I don’t know if we’re entitled to our different math, but you’re certainly -

ROVE: I said THE math. I said you’re entitled to yours.

How’d THE math work out for him? Pretty bad. He did predict 2008 correctly but that was hard to miss if you were paying attention.

As far as caller ID goes caller ID has been around for a long time and polls have been fine. I can’t imagine it would likely be a factor in polling since the sample remains random whether you pick up your phone or not.

Has anyone been inundated with unsolicited calls from pollsters? The sample sizes in single polls are very small compared to the population in these states. It’s unlikely to be a factor. If it was a factor it would largely get cancelled out since the more polling done the larger the overall sample and the smaller the margin of error. If anything it would strengthen the polls.

One of the biggest factors is cell phones and whether they are polled. One of the flaws with Rasmussen is that it does not call cell phones. Rasmussen would never reach me or millions of other Americans without a land line.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 8:45 AM
Comment #356604

We’ll how about that. Guess we just disagree. Caller I.D. Is now much more prevalent on tv and phones than ever before. Since I don’t put much store in Rasmussen either, what’s your point? I did not say Rove was omniscient, I said I thought he was the best.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 6, 2012 9:33 AM
Comment #356605

Is caller ID that much more prevalent today than four years ago? That’s the point I should be making. Also, your suggestion is that folks won’t pick and I should point out that doesn’t matter because there will always be various factors why a person does and does not respond to polling questions. That’s part of the margin of error.

I bring up Rasmussen simply because it’s an example of a real problem in polling that pollsters have been dealing with due to changes on technology. My point is I agree there are flaws with polls and technology but I don’t agree caller ID is one.

My point about Rove is that he’s just a grade higher than a regular pundit. He’s making partisan observations and he’s got an agenda. Dick Morris, as some cite, is in the same boat. If I’m going with an opinion I’m going to go with one based on hundreds of polls and mathematical models instead of just the feelings of folks with a clear agenda.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 9:50 AM
Comment #356608

Come on, ducker. Rove is not guessing. He is using empirical data. Morris and Rove should not be mentioned in the same breath.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 6, 2012 11:07 AM
Comment #356610

I cannot agree that Rove has some more advanced prediction than Morris when they arrive at the exact same conclusions based on the same assumed turnout and enthusiasm and skewed polls.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 11:12 AM
Comment #356612

My wife and I just voted in our district. It is a rural farming area of Ohio and we don’t normally have to wait in line to vote, not even 4 years ago when Obama won. But today, we had to wait about 15 minutes to vote. The woman told me I was the 475 voter today and they were crowded. We voted about 10:00 AM, which is after the early voters who are on their way to work, and the later workers, who will vote after work. We are in a predominently Republican area, that contains many evangelical church people. Again, I know this is not scientific, but it seems to us that there is a real excitement among conservative christians to go vote. If our area is an example of what is taking place in the state of Ohio, I believe Obama is i real trouble.

Posted by: TomT at November 6, 2012 11:19 AM
Comment #356613

Adam, Rove has run campagins (successfully) so I believe he qualifies at least two grades higher. You may not like him but he’s been an insider for a long time. Having worked in campaigns the research data that the insiders use is much more detailed than what we get retail and I’m sure Rove is still accessing that type of data in order to target his PAC money. That said what I did read from him in that article on WSJ is mostly BS.

Dick Morris lost me when he wrote “Off With Their Heads” and complained about bias. Of course there is bias in reporting and of course polls are used to “pump” issues and candidates. If both sides weren’t doing it then he might have a point.

As for this race, who knows. Our country is still a very urban/suburban split with most of the electorial college votes going to the cities. That and demographics tend to support your assertion that Romney just can’t beat math. But if the urban centers in Ohio and PA don’t roll out the support for Obama anything could happen.

I will enjoy the night with a nice beer and a remote.

Posted by: George at November 6, 2012 11:21 AM
Comment #356615

TomT:

I think your observations line up with what polls are seeing as far as enthusiasm goes but it doesn’t represent every region. There’s a lot of enthusiasm for liberals as well in other places in the US. Where we lose in enthusiasm we’ll make up just a bit with increased numbers of minority voters and other groups conservatives have marginalized in the process of veering hard right over the last three years.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 11:25 AM
Comment #356617

I bring you one of my favorite ads this year, the creepy Cain smoker ad. I like this one too, game on!

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 11:32 AM
Comment #356618

I’d rather be in Obama’s position right now than Romney’s. The polls are trending in Obama’s direction in the important states but people still need to show up and vote. The Dems might be less enthusiastic but they’re still gonna vote, an enthusiastic vote doesn’t count any more than an unentsiastic vote. Obama has better organizations in Ohio and Virginia and that can counter the “hate vote”

Posted by: tcsned at November 6, 2012 12:18 PM
Comment #356619

“Hate vote?”

I must be missing something in my prediction of a comfortable Obama win.
When one of the more logical Dems with common sense starts with the BS “hate” rhetoric, maybe Dems are a little more nervous than I thought.

Posted by: kctim at November 6, 2012 12:31 PM
Comment #356620

kctim:

I can say I’m plenty nervous. I think Obama is by far the favorite, but not a complete lock for the win.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 12:35 PM
Comment #356621

Do you honestly think people are voting for Romney and not against Obama? If there is anything that is motivating Republican voting it is a dislike of the current president. Are you saying that Romney is your ideal candidate?

Posted by: tcsned at November 6, 2012 12:37 PM
Comment #356622

Woops. There’s a militant black man standing outside a polling place in Philly again oppressing poor white voters. Word has it he’s even opened the door once or twice for some white folks when they approached. How dare he!

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 12:44 PM
Comment #356623

I believe people are voting against the policies Obama has forced on them, Tom. Not against Obama the man.

Posted by: kctim at November 6, 2012 12:57 PM
Comment #356624

How dare he, Adam? Phft! If he was white and dressed like that, you guys would be having a sh*t fit.

Posted by: kctim at November 6, 2012 1:05 PM
Comment #356625

Kctim: “If he was white and dressed like that…”

What? If he were dressed like a militant black man?

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 1:12 PM
Comment #356629

George,
“I will enjoy the night with a nice beer and a remote.”
An excellent idea.

Posted by: phx8 at November 6, 2012 2:09 PM
Comment #356630

The reason Republicans are going to lose long term is this: as good as they are at making people feel like today is crappy, they excel at misjudging policy, domestic and foreign, in a way that makes you nostalgic for the people they spent much of their time blasting.

I mean, as a practical matter, if you’re going to spend a lot of time blasting people in order to get ahead, you have to be good at policy, because otherwise you squander the advantage instead of amplifying it.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 3:30 PM
Comment #356631

I am hearing on local radio in Ohio, that the turnout in rural counties like ours is very high. Much higher than in 2008. There seems to be a real excitement. I believe Romney is going to win Ohio. Don’t know about the rest of the country.

Regarding why people are voting for Romney; I voted for Romney (the man) because of his business experience and knowledge. I didn’t vote against Obama for the sake of voting against him. I didn’t vote for Obama because he is in over his head and has no idea what he is doing.

Posted by: TomT at November 6, 2012 3:45 PM
Comment #356632

I have’nt written on here in a couple of months. I am black and I voted for President Obama 4 years ago and I was unhappy with the way things were going; so I asked some of the people on Watchblog for advice. Someone recommended I listen to Rush Limbaugh and whoever it was, I want to thank you for opening my eyes. I voted for Mitt Romney today and I feel have done my part to better the country. For the sake of my kids I hope he wins.

Posted by: Kathy at November 6, 2012 3:51 PM
Comment #356633

“I mean, as a practical matter, if you’re going to spend a lot of time blasting people in order to get ahead, you have to be good at policy, because otherwise you squander the advantage instead of amplifying it.”

Good call Stephen.
The very fact that Romney is even in this race is proof positive that blasting your opponents as racists and passing bad policy like the ACA, did nothing but squander Obama’s advantage.

Posted by: kctim at November 6, 2012 4:29 PM
Comment #356635

God Bless you, and your kids, Kathy. Romney will help our battered country recover.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 6, 2012 4:40 PM
Comment #356636

I sure hope the obama folks don’t trash the White House like the Clinton folks did on their way out the door.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 6, 2012 4:42 PM
Comment #356638

Mr. Daugherty wrote; “The reason Republicans are going to lose long term is this: as good as they are at making people feel like today is crappy…”

My friend, you sure do know how to make me laugh. Romney will win because today is crappy compared to what it should be.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 6, 2012 4:45 PM
Comment #356639
I sure hope the obama folks don’t trash the White House like the Clinton folks did on their way out the door.

I guess we’ll find out in 2017.

I am hearing on local radio in Ohio, that the turnout in rural counties like ours is very high. Much higher than in 2008. There seems to be a real excitement.
It could be true that rural turnout is up and that turnout among Obama’s base is also up. Even if Obama’s base turns out slightly less than in 2008, he still would probably win because his margin in 2008 was so large. Nevertheless, it is useless to argue about these nuances on election day. In all likelihood, we’ll learn the winner in about 12 hours and these debates will become moot. Posted by: Warped Reality at November 6, 2012 4:50 PM
Comment #356640

Royal Flush-
Dangerous words: “because today is crappy compared to what it should be”

Subjunctive. Would be’s, could be’s. Unprovable, but it opens the door for me to suggest this: if it weren’t for Obama, things would be worse. I mean, just the car industry alone. Add a million jobs to the 4.6 million that were lost, thanks to the financial crisis.

Then add even more because the stimulus, if it were put through, would have likely been just tax cuts, and little else. Waste two thirds of a dollar to stimulate a third of a dollar in economic activity. Stimulus wouldn’t be a dirty word, because it would be a Republican doing the economic stimulation, like it was with Bush.

Truth of the matter is, part of what accelerated the crash, turned the credit crunch into a multi-bank pile-up, is the Bush Administration letting Lehman Brothers fly apart. Would the laissez faire/far right Republians have done anything to make anything better?

No, they would have waited for the v-shape recovery to kick in. Why? Because they believe something in the economy requires v-shaped recoveries, even when the basic structure of the markets and the employment numbers have been damaged.

Republicans said things would get better with them, that they’d restore people’s faith in the Presidency, so on and so forth. They promised improvement last time, and instead delivered debacle.

Republicans are too reliant on dogma and mythology. They don’t keep their eye on things.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 5:07 PM
Comment #356641

Is it always the goal of Stephanie Doughboy to accuse Republicans of doing exactly what the Democraps are doing??? It’s almost as if Stephanie thinks, “if I say it first, I win”.

Warped Reality; I’m surprised you still support Obama. Since you are of Jewish decendency, I figured you would support a man who actually supports Israel. My understanding is that Romney is getting a lot of the Jewish vote.

Re/the rural turnout and the Obama turnout; didn’t the Obama machine get all their voters out early??? Or is the plan still to “vote early and vote often”?

Re/moot; in 12 hours, the comments of DA and SD (also known as DA) will become moot.

Posted by: Frank at November 6, 2012 5:20 PM
Comment #356643

The really tragic thing, in my view, is that all the efforts of state and local level Republicans have made doing their civic duty a major pain in the ass, and cast doubt on their faith that their ballot will be faithfully be cast. And it may not even give them victory, and if it does, they have to do that all over again, and create that much more social turmoil to keep others down.

And ultimately, they won’t be able to. They’re sacrificing the future of their party to keep it secure in the present, and its not even clear that it will overcome today’s turnout. People should not have to wait hours to vote. They should not have to cast provisional ballots if their names are on the roll.

And if the information on their registration card is correct, that and their signature should be all that is needed in order to cast a ballot.

America should be ruled by it’s people, not by the folks whose leaders are vicious enough to win elections by means other than fair competition.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 5:26 PM
Comment #356644

Yes…conservatives are dogmatic. We have principles, we have a belief system, and we don’t want to change what works. We adhere to our founding documents that established this Democratic Republic.

We are dogmatic in our belief that individuals have a responsibility to provide for themselves if they are able.

We are dogmatic in our belief that government should be limited to the duties called for by our founders.

We are dogmatic in our belief that what our own minds and bodies produce belongs to us and not to others.

We are dogmatic in our belief that we are endowed with individual rights by our creator and not by our government.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 6, 2012 5:26 PM
Comment #356647

America should be ruled by it’s people, not by the folks whose leaders are vicious enough to win elections by means other than fair competition.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 5:26 PM

Are you already conceding the election?

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 6, 2012 5:32 PM
Comment #356648

“America should be ruled by it’s people, not by the folks whose leaders are vicious enough to win elections by means other than fair competition.”

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 5:26 PM

See, here is a perfect example of SD’s dumbass comments; he makes a statement that can very easily be applied to Obama’s agenda and policy and the dumbass tries to apply it to Republicans.

He complains that the Republican Party is being run by conservatives; that it is being swayed by the Tea Party conservative movement; and at the same time, he speaks as one who is nothing more than the mouthpiece for the socialist liberal fringe that has managed to hijack the Democratic Party.

Posted by: Frank at November 6, 2012 5:35 PM
Comment #356650

If Mr. Daugherty was forbidden to use the word…”FAIR”…he couldn’t make an argument.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 6, 2012 5:47 PM
Comment #356658

Beliefs are no substitute for observation of reality. People believed for years that the world was run by magic. We only really started to understand the world on a productive basis when we made observation the backbone of our disciplines.

The old line is, the world is not only stranger than we imagine, it’s stranger than we can imagine. Things work that way for a reason: we are only aware of so much, we only understand so much.

Principle are not bad. It’s great to be motivated to do good. But it’s not enough to be motivated to do good, you have to be minding what you’re doing, and understanding it well enough not to make mistakes.

Republicans have gotten it into their heads that they understand how the world, the economy, and fiscal matter work better than everybodye else. Unfortunately for them, every major policy prescription they’ve applied has backfired. The Tax Cuts didn’t pay for themselves, and their fiscal policy re-opened the deficit. The things they did “for the good of the economy” became key parts of what caused the recession, the credit freeze, and then the crash. And the wars they fought to prove America tuffer than everybody else? Paralyzed our foreign policy, drained our military strength for most of a decade.

It’s not that the Republicans are stupid, or couldn’t do better. But they’ve gotten locked into their belief system so tightly, there isn’t room for correction, or for trying different ways to express the same principles.

As for the insults? I could respond in kind, and there are times I just let the blistering blast of bloodly blarney blow out of the keyboard.

And then delete that useless garbage. Because it is useless. This is the internet, fellows. You think your name-calling makes you any different than the sad folks who scream at people in the comment sections of almost every major publication online? You think they convince anybody of anything besides that politics is an ordeal to be avoided?

I can be intense, but I like to channel my passion through logic and fact that gives its substance. I like to give people as few reasons to discount my opinion as possible.

But you fellows? You are a walking argument to me that confirms my decision long ago not to stay a Republican. You say dogmatism is the same as being principled. I don’t think so. Dogmatism is believing you have the absolute truth, which nobody really does. It’s just asking, as I explained before, to run yourself into greater error.

Few people object to folks having to earn their keep under most circumstances. My father worked until he literally could not work any longer. There is a pride in being employed and earning a buck that I know very well. I’m not so proud that I won’t seek out help when I need it, but I don’t want to need it.

But I can say that, and be completely ignored by the zealots on the right. They want to picture themselves as the only people who take pride in their work. All the rest of us are the 47% who won’t take responsibility for our lives. Except we do take responsibility for our lives.

As for expecting to own and keep everything you make? Maybe in some idealized video game, or old-tyme frontier, but we’re living in neither. We’re living in a heavily industrialized society, in cities and towns that require some kind of law and order, at the very least, simply to function. Nobody can keep everything they make in such an environment, and nobody should. The price of civilization is having to pay taxes.

As for your argument about rights?

For most of human history, such rights, however much God endowed us with them, were not observed consistently in the real world.

We need a proper government in order to take those rights from philosophical imperatives to practical realities. Sometimes government does that by enforcing and deciding protections. But sometimes it does so by passing an amendment that says Congress can’t do something.

Free speech is a God given right, you could say, but look at all the countries, including fairly Christian ones, where speech isn’t so free.

Frank-
You say nothing to defeat my point, and much to defeat yourself.

You shouldn’t be kidding yourself that people like me, the folks who dominate the party, are all that far left. But from your perch on the far right, everything moderate and centrist looks too liberal to you.

You’ve lost perspective, and no matter how much you call my points “dumbass points”, you’re still far to the right of most Americans.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 6:29 PM
Comment #356660

I just found this interesting picture of Mitt Romney and Obama talking after the Denver debate.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 6:37 PM
Comment #356662

Royal Flush-
And if Frank couldn’t use the word “dumbass”, he’d be rendered mute on the internet as well.

And no, I’m not conceding ****. Haven’t you known me long enough to recognize I’m not the conceding type?

No, I just see all these reports of people having to wait in line for hours, of all the confusion and the SNAFUs, and it offends my functionalist, pragmatist sensibilities. It’s transparently obvious that Republicans are trying to skew the polls that really matters, and it will be a pity either way, whether Romney wins or loses, if a great number of Americans don’t get their views properly registered, simply because some people would rather force a result on our electoral system, than encourage it by making the compromises necessary to be persuasive.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 6:44 PM
Comment #356663

I would simply ask Mr. Daugherty…which of my stated beliefs do you disagree with?

SD writes; “Free speech is a God given right, you could say, but look at all the countries, including fairly Christian ones, where speech isn’t so free.”

Yes…I would say free speech is a God given right without any equivocation. That some have denied the right to others does not mean the right doesn’t exist for everyone. We must be prepared to fight and die for our rights when someone would deny them to us. Our founders felt the same way and did fight for our rights.

I put my life on the line to protect our rights. I don’t just talk about rights, I was willing to die for them.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 6, 2012 6:44 PM
Comment #356665

So did I Royal, something that Stephen and Adam have never done. And as one who has served my time for the country and actually knows what it is to take an oath to defend the Constitution of the United States, I have the right to call anyone anything I want. Plus I am a senior and seniors are known for speaking their mind and not playing word games.

But tell me Stephen, if you are capable of giving a straight answer; when Romney wins the election, will we have to listen to you cry it was stolen by voter supression?

Posted by: Frank at November 6, 2012 6:58 PM
Comment #356666

Royal Flush-
I believe free speech is a write worth dying and sacrificing for. I started blogging at a time when there were questions whether somebody like me could safely express my kind of dissenting views.

I believe the right to think and organize as you please, to report and petition, is a fundamental civil right, without which all other rights become moot points.

And I believe our Democracy is worth dying to protect, killing to protect.

I honor the sacrifice of our veterans.

I believe, though, that there is a difference between absolute belief and reality, and that to successfully manifest as much of our rights as possible, we have to pay attention to how issues relating to them work in real life. It’s one thing to say, thou shalt not murder. Question is, what is murder, what are circumstances in which killing another person is acceptable, even imperative?

See what I mean? Interpretation is how we get from a principle that might be very simple, to dealing with a reality that is almost always messy.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 7:00 PM
Comment #356668

Mr. Daugherty, I can assure you that most of us know the difference between “murder” and “kill”.

And, I can assure you that our constitution and founding documents are worth believing in “absolutely” and pass the “reality” test for today and all our tomorrows.

Posted by: Royal Flush at November 6, 2012 7:08 PM
Comment #356669

TPM reports for CNN:

Preliminary Exit Polls: White Vote Down, Latino Vote Up In Florida

Could be a rough night for Romney in Florida. He was up only 1.5% in the poll averages before today.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 7:09 PM
Comment #356673

Well, at least Scott Brown has his modelling career to fall back on.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 9:43 PM
Comment #356674

Richard Mourdock can reassure himself it was God’s will.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 9:46 PM
Comment #356675

Stephen:

Yeah, Scott Brown and his truck can drive on home for good.

WI, MI, PA for Obama, way ahead in OH too. Dead even in FL.

Hmm. Things don’t seem to be going the way the right had projected this thing to go so far.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 9:51 PM
Comment #356676

Alan Grayson back in FL for more fun.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 9:52 PM
Comment #356677

Todd Akin Legitimately defeated.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 10:06 PM
Comment #356678

Joe Walsh can now be a fashion critic full-time.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 10:18 PM
Comment #356679

George “Macaca” Allen loses again. Time to give it up, dude.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 10:56 PM
Comment #356680

The pathway for Romney is closing fast. The Senate is looking to stay in Dem hands. The House in Republican hands. $6 billion spent and we get the status quo. Tim Kaine defeated George Allen in my state. Hopefully this will serve as a lesson to Republicans, STOP NOMINATING CLOWNS! If Romney loses it will be in large part because the GOP field was nothing but nut jobs or otherwise seriously flawed candidates. Romney wasn’t challenged to do anything but try to seem more extreme than them. The losing senate candidates were all way too extreme and just plain crazy/stupid. The only exception was Scott Brown, who wasn’t a bad senator, pretty moderate but ran a hateful campaign in a tough state for a Republican. The Tea Party thing ain’t helping you out.

Posted by: tcsned at November 6, 2012 11:04 PM
Comment #356681

Obama wins!

Posted by: tcsned at November 6, 2012 11:14 PM
Comment #356682

President Obama re-elected.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 11:15 PM
Comment #356683

Breaking out the champagne!!! YEAH!!!

Posted by: phx8 at November 6, 2012 11:17 PM
Comment #356684

Romney Defeats Obama!

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 6, 2012 11:19 PM
Comment #356685

So, after all this bull****, after the expenditure of millions of dollars, and an party-line effort to make him a one term President, This is what Republicans have gotten. They’ve so far lost Senate seats. They probably keep the house, but only because of how gerrymandered the country has been made.

The Republican advantages are artificial, institutional, relics of better times.

They need to take a new look at their party and their movement.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 11:20 PM
Comment #356686

Senate stays Dem, looks like a pick-up of a few seats! Sweet. Defending 21 when the GOP only had to defend 10, and the Dems GAIN seats. Amazing. Well done.

Posted by: phx8 at November 6, 2012 11:21 PM
Comment #356689

phx8-
I’d wait on that. We still have Jon Tester and another race still going.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 6, 2012 11:26 PM
Comment #356690

Congrats, Now lets just see if we can get something done in the next 4 years or is it going to be more of the same. Reps still have the house.

Posted by: KAP at November 6, 2012 11:34 PM
Comment #356693

Let’s hear it for polls and polling science. I love it!

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 7, 2012 12:03 AM
Comment #356694

With something like 20 million votes left to be counted many on the right started complaining about the popular vote. They called the election with Obama behind 1 million but apparently the right didn’t notice there were about 20 or 30 million more votes to be counted including most of the West Coast. It’s virtually tied now with Obama almost certain to take a clear lead as the states get closer to 100% counted. Donald Trump just beclowned himself as only he can. What an idiot.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 7, 2012 12:27 AM
Comment #356696

Adam,
Yeah, the polls turned out to be very accurate. It’s amusing to see just how wrong people like Rove turned out to be. I caught a few minutes of Limbaugh this morning, and hoo boy, was he wrong!

The Tea Party literally cost the GOP a shot at control of the Senate. Thanks, Tea Party!

I’ve said many times, the sheer demographic power of the Democratic bloc would carry the day, and that seems to have come to pass. While I don’t know yet how votes from women, blacks, and gays broke down, I have seen several reports the Latinos broke overwhelmingly for Obama.

And the great thing is, there’s every reason to expect the next four years to be better in terms of the economy, and there are two great candidates for 2016, Hillary Clinton & Joe Biden, waiting in the wings. Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren won, and she’ll be a great asset to the country as well.

Posted by: phx8 at November 7, 2012 12:40 AM
Comment #356697

Obama Victory! :^)

Rape-publicans defeated!

Yeah baby!

Posted by: Adrienne at November 7, 2012 12:45 AM
Comment #356698
The Tea Party literally cost the GOP a shot at control of the Senate. Thanks, Tea Party!


LOL! Indeed. Thanks Teaparty — you wacky, crazy old bunch!

Posted by: Adrienne at November 7, 2012 12:48 AM
Comment #356699

Adrienne,
While it’s too bad the GOP will probably keep the House, hopefully Issa will keep his seat on his Committee. Whether it’s the War on Women or investigating Libya or Fast and Furious, that guy is pure gold for Democrats. Not nearly enough props are being given to that knucklehead. Thank you, Issa! Thank you, thank you, thank you!!! Don’t ever stop being you!!!

Posted by: phx8 at November 7, 2012 12:53 AM
Comment #356700

phx8,
Raising a glass! Cheers!

Posted by: Adrienne at November 7, 2012 12:55 AM
Comment #356703

Obama gets Virginia. The total is now over three hundred.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 7, 2012 1:44 AM
Comment #356717

Hope all you neck nuzzlers are enjoying slobbering all over each other. We’ll see if anything changes. I expect more stagnation.

The Repub party is going to have to change in order to compete. Lindsey Graham said it best.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 7, 2012 9:28 AM
Comment #356720

John Johnson:

Or as a great philosopher and man of the people once said, “Peck, peck, peck. Chip, chip, chip.” That’s the sound of the right losing it’s argument.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 7, 2012 9:56 AM
Comment #356721

Neck nuzzlers? How objective of you to resort to bigotry. As for stagnation? That’s up to you fellows. You can be part of the solution, or part of the problem.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 7, 2012 9:59 AM
Comment #356730

No Stephen, It’s up to both sides to give and take or it will be more of the same for the next 4 years or 2 in the case of the House. This has been the problem over the last 4 years neither side was willing to give or take.

Posted by: KAP at November 7, 2012 10:52 AM
Comment #356733

“Bigotry”???? Where does that come from? There is nothing bigoted about my statement.

And compromise works both ways, kid. I know you haven’t learned this , and probably never will. Half of the people voted against the O brand of hope and change. If he sits on his butt and goes the status quo route, it will just be four more years of the same.

The Repubs had better take heed, however. If they don’t turn more toward the middle and open their arms to Hispanics and young voters, they will continue to lose ground. Placing unqualified TP’ers in races has been idiotic. You just sit back and wait for them to drop a turd in the punch bowl…and it usually has something to do with abortion or gay rights. Where do they find such people? I am convinced that the people we truly need running this country are too smart to get involved. What person in their right mind would want to expose themselves and their family to the process?

Posted by: John Johnson at November 7, 2012 11:17 AM
Comment #356734

KAP-
The Democrats have long been willing to give and take. You should face up to the fact that if your people say they are against compromise, against making deals with the Democrats, they’re probably not doing much good for your ability to negotiate. It sort of follows.

The real question is whether the Right has gerrymandered itself out of having that kind of flexibility.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 7, 2012 11:19 AM
Comment #356737

Please Stephen, not more of Democrats are willing while Repubs are not BS. Both sides were not willing to give in and compromise and it’s time you got your head out your Democrat behind and realized the fact that both sides were to blame for not compromising. For the last 4 years there was no middle ground both wanted their way and both sides were stonewalling.

Posted by: KAP at November 7, 2012 11:39 AM
Comment #356742

I’m telling you, KAP…Young Stephen is an immovable object. He is anchored in concrete. He has been programmed to affix blame to the Repubs, over and over again, without ever analyzing fact or showing the least bit of objectivity. He is eblivious to objectivity.

He found out the father who abandoned him was a Republican, or the guy who ran over his dog was a Republican, or the coach who cut him from the football team is a Republican, or he is gay, or something like this. His hatred is just too deep to have developed over the wars or tax rates.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 7, 2012 12:05 PM
Comment #356745

John Johnson-
What exactly do you mean by “neck nuzzler,” then? When used to talk about two males, the term seems in that context to be a homophobic slur.

Apart from that, you have it right. The trouble is, that’s the GOP’s base. Either the base needs to get used to not being the sole, exclusive focus of GOP political activity, or the GOP needs to look for a new base to play to.

Either way, the party changes, or it shrinks.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 7, 2012 12:22 PM
Comment #356748

All sorts of animals and people neck nuzzle, kid. You hug your mamma with your neck’s intertwined…you feel warm, safe and comfortable. Birds of a feather stick together and garner a feeling of strength in numbers. People are emboldened by hearing “Amen, Brother”, or “You told him!”, or “Right on!”, or “Hit him again!” You hang where your actions are going to be reinforced and where you blend in….where independent words or actions are discouraged….where following is safer than leading.

Posted by: John Johnson at November 7, 2012 1:14 PM
Comment #356764

Your right John Johnson, after 6 or 7 years of reading Stephen’s writing about what is right with Democrats and what is wrong with Repubs I should have learned Stephen is a Robot Democrat.

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Comment #378776

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