September Jobs Barely Beat Concensus, August and July Revised Upward
Unemployment dropped to 7.8% on a larger workforce and fewer unemployed persons. Jobs grew by just 114,000 which was 1,000 over consensus of 113,000.
There will be a lot of complaining on the right about the drop in unemployment but this time it dropped despite participation rates which ticked up slightly from 63.5% to 63.6%. Much of the decline in the rate has been due to participation rates falling steadily over the last 3 years because of the recovery and beyond that due to demographic changes. This time the population grew by 206,000, the workforce by 418,000 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 456,000.
The unemployment rate looks better but the important number is still the increase in jobs which was as expected but still disappointing at 114,000. The real story there is the August and July revisions that show stronger growth. BLS revised July up from 141,000 to 181,000 and August from 96,000 to 142,000.
The revisions were almost entirely in the government sector which has been a constant drag on the economy due to state and local governments struggling to hire or re-hire since the depression ended. To put that in perspective over the past 31 months private sector jobs grew by 4.7 million while the government sector actually lost jobs to the tune of -470,000. The slowing loss of jobs there and the steady movement to job growth has been a key milestone in the recovery.
This stronger BLS report comes on the heels of several other pieces of good economic news:
So this is great news for the week. Some in the media were watching for the BLS numbers to see if Obama might be kicked while he was down after the debate. This report will strengthen him slightly if anything. Another month has gone by without hyperinflation or a double dip recession striking as the right assured us was an inevitability. Maybe next month?
Posted by Adam Ducker at October 5, 2012 8:39 AM
Slipping sideways for four years, while incomes drop and growth stagnates. Pretty poor record.
ASctually the real unemployment is 14.7% that’s counting those who got frustrated and stopped looking. But you can keep with the rosey liberal BS of 7.8% Ducker but the outlook isn’t as rosey as you portray it.
KAP, it’s the same BS number, as you call it, that Bush used, Clinton used and every president before them. Nice try. I guess you’re gonna say the polls are all skewed towards Democrats too.
Dropping and stagnant incomes has been an issue since Reagan, all of a sudden to be so concerned about it is a little disingenuous. Corporate profits are at record highs and incomes at lows and your blaming Obama? Lol
My favorite myth I’ve heard being peddled has been that it’s all seasonal hiring. Problem is, both numbers are seasonally adjusted, which means that all that has been filtered out.
They also pushed the meme that it was due to workforce contraction. Some would point to U6 numbers, which would have me telling them that peak unemployment under that measure was at 17.2% in October 2009, which means that measure has improved by 2.5% since then. U3 has decreased from 10.0 to 7.8%, which is only 2.2% of a decrease
Which means there is a 13% greater fall in U6 numbers than U3.
It would be a lot easier to get this economy recovering if the Republicans hadn’t set their hopes on an bad-economy driven campaigned, and in a conflict of interest, interfere with any legislation that would add jobs.
I think it tells you something that the right wing is out talking down the job numbers with conspiracy theories, rather than talking about real economic weakness.
tcsned, Obama is the one who made all those failed promisses Like unemployment below 8% when he took office and cutting the deficet in half. I’m just saying the truth about the unemployment like all the rest of the Presidents should have.
Barely noticed amid all the hullabaloo- According to Gallup as of yesterday, Obama approval rating is 54%, and the tracking poll (which is a rolling seven day average) puts Obama up +5, 50 - 45.
Incomes have been an ISSUE, but they went up from Reagan until this recent recession. Then they dropped and dropped more under Obama.
Obama “inherited” a mess. Obama has not made things better. The best we can say is that Obama inherited a problem and didn’t fix it in four years.
C&J: “The best we can say is that Obama inherited a problem and didn’t fix it in four years.”
True. It was a big problem though. You frame it as a failure, I know. But we’ve come a long way though, wouldn’t you say? Reagan didn’t finish the job in 4 years either, he just got a little further along than Obama.
KAP: “Actually the real unemployment is 14.7% that’s counting those who got frustrated and stopped looking. But you can keep with the rosey liberal BS of 7.8% Ducker but the outlook isn’t as rosey as you portray it.”
If you want to use U-6 that’s fine. You just shouldn’t mix and match. U-6 underemployment is almost always about 1.8 times the value of U-3 unemployment. That means what you call “real unemployment” this time in 1984 with Reagan was probably in the neighborhood of about 13.2%. This is only an estimate because that series data on marginally attached individuals is not available to me for the 1980’s to make the real calculation.
After four years, Obama ended up only a little worse than he started.
The thing that is telling is the RATE of growth. After big falls, the rate usually goes up much faster. The harder you throw the ball down, the higher it bounces back. Under Obama, however, the best we can manage is the proverbial dead cat bounce.
“After four years, Obama ended up only a little worse than he started.”
Based on what measurement though?
“The harder you throw the ball down, the higher it bounces back.”
The bounce depends on the surface the ball is striking though. This recovery has been bogged down by multiple problems that are out of Obama’s hands most of which relates to consumer demand for goods and services and new houses.
Adam, It’s time the government got truthful with the public and told people the truth instead of candy coating the figures. Underemployed and those who give up looking are part of the picture to, not just those who collect a check or are looking. We shouldn’t mix and match??? WHY NOT? Are you liberals affraid of the TRUTH? You affraid of reality?
Growth is slow and slowing. Unemployment almost exactly where it was when he took office. Debt is much higher. Obama managed to grow the debt, if you want to credit him with that.
Re the bounce - we have never seen a worse bounce than Obama’s. I think Obama’s policies have helped make that happen.
BLS makes all measurements available to the public. Who’s candy coating?
I say don’t mix and match only so that you know to stick with comparable figures. You can’t compare Reagan’s U3 to Obama’s U6 for instance though I do see conservatives doing that from time to time. Folks don’t use U3 because it looks smaller and better, that’s just the traditional means of measuring it going back several decades and is similar to methodologies going back a hundred years almost. You wouldn’t care about U6 other than it makes Obama look worse but it makes any president look worse to focus on underemployment.
C&J: “Growth is slow and slowing.”
It’s growing still, even if growth has slowed. It was not growing but shrinking when Obama started so how is it a little worse?
“Unemployment almost exactly where it was when he took office.”
It’s exactly where it was then except the direct it’s headed is down, not up, so how is it a little worse?
“Debt is much higher.”
This is true, but how would a president Romney have tackled the debt in that time? Is there a solution for stopping massive deficits right after a deep recession other than trying and speeding up the growth of the economy?
“…we have never seen a worse bounce than Obama’s. I think Obama’s policies have helped make that happen.”
I keep reminding you that we’ve never seen a worse recession in our lifetimes. So I’m not surprised we haven’t seen a worse recovery. It was brutal. It still is. But things have dramatically improved since the peak of the recession and they’ll continue to improve thanks to Obama’s policies.
The economy went down in 1929, five years later the economy was growing by 10.9%.
The economy went down in 2007, five years later (i.e. now) it is 1.3%.
Surely the great depression was worse that what Obama faced.
The average level of GDP growth - no bounce - is around 3.3%. Obama has not even managed to achieve the average level of growth at ANY year in his presidency.
I don’t know if we can “blame” Obama for the downturn, but we can say with certainty that whatever he is doing to fix the problem didn’t work.
Adam writes; “The unemployment rate looks better but the important number is still the increase in jobs which was as expected but still disappointing at 114,000. The real story there is the August and July revisions that show stronger growth. BLS revised July up from 141,000 to 181,000 and August from 96,000 to 142,000.
The newly released numbers provided by Adam are…”Jobs grew by just 114,000 which was 1,000 over consensus of 113,000.
OK, that is 67000 fewer than the revised July figures, and 28000 fewer than the revised August figures.
During July and August the unemployed rate was above 8%, and now, with September figures showing less job growth the rate drops to 7.8%. That is mystifying to me. Fewer jobs created than in the previous two months, yet…the rate drops. Will some statistics wonk please explain this?
C&J: “Surely the great depression was worse that what Obama faced.”
It was certainly deeper and longer, but I don’t have a good answer as to why growth was so strong other than perhaps it was pent up demand. I don’t think comparing this recession to the great depression is that easy but it is easier to compare modern recessions and this is was certainly the worst we’ve seen.
You can say it didn’t work but what you mean is it didn’t work fast enough. The economy has improved dramatically since the downturn. But it’s a slow, jobless recovery for sure.
There are two sets of data. Nonfarm jobs (+114,000) are a product of the Establishment Survey while the unemployment rate (7.8%) is a product of the Household Survey. The two are only indirectly related. That is why you can have slower growth in jobs measured in one survey and in the other survey you can find that population is up, employment is up, unemployment is down.
Thanks Adam…still murky to me. That’s a hellofaway to measure unemployment. But, like most things the federal government does, we are not meant to understand it.
I think their methods makes a lot of sense when you dig them it but it is very complex.
Adam…your answer doesn’t really explain how fewer jobs created in the current reporting month, than the previous two months, if measured in the same way, results in a drop in unemployment. Please explain further.
The general trend of the two surveys is going to be the same over time but the surveys don’t depend on each other for their results and there data is completely separate.
That allows there to be this kind of month to month variation that we saw today. It doesn’t make sense until you think of them as two different studies that aren’t connected and don’t depend on each other.
Adam, if the data is collected in the same way, from the same people, why the huge difference? It’s beginning to sound more like a poll than reliable data.
“It’s beginning to sound more like a poll than reliable data.
It is actually a poll in a way but it’s highly reliable. But think about if Gallup measured tens of thousands of people for each survey instead of 1,000. The margin of error for BLS in this case is minuscule.
Thanks for the link Adam. I read it quickly as I just didn’t have time to go slow and digest everything. From my cursory reading…I am just as confused as before. It is looking more and more like a poll, and in that case, easy to manipulate.
The sample size for the Household Survey to get the unemployment rate is 60,000. The latest Gallup survey of Obama vs. Romney has a sample size of 3,050 and a margin of error of 2%. The margin of error for the Household Survey is a tiny fraction of 1%.
I wouldn’t say it’s easy to manipulate but it is survey so it can produce outlier values. We might see the number go back up in the next few months if this was the case.
Welch Conspiracy Theory on Jobs Data Not Tied to Reality:
A good conspiracy theory is irrefutable. A bad one usually collapses when confronted by reality.
The claim by some supporters of Republican challenger Mitt Romney that President Barack Obama’s Chicago-based campaign doctored September’s unemployment figures for political gain fall into the second category, according to members of both parties who have served in the government’s economic data system.
Unemployment statistics are not the God’s truth. They are a measure. I suppose these are accurate, but it could have been different.
The interesting thing is that 7.8% is a horrible rate. Obama has done so poorly that the WORST rate in an election in living memory is the best Obama can do and they call it good.
Yes, this WORST in living memory 7.8% is 0.5% higher than President Reagan at this same time and 0.2% higher than President George H.W. Bush. Did you vote in those two elections?
I would worry more about high unemployment if it were going up, not down. I’m with those who say this is not good enough by a long shot but it’s headed in the right direction.
More on the conspiracy:
The drop in the unemployment rate in September — from 8.1% to 7.8% — should not have been a gigantic surprise.
As we reported before, the number is consistent with a lot of other September datapoints, including monthly auto sales, which came out earlier this week, and were at the highest level since the crisis, at nearly a 15 million annualized adjusted rate.
And as you can see from this chart, there is a LONG history of the unemployment rate (red line) moving in tandem with car sales.
And that makes total sense. People don’t buy cars if they don’t have a job.
Indeed, I cited several pieces of data in my post to confirm that the trend is upward in the economy, not downward. What we have here is a right wing delusion about the state of the economy where they start with the conclusion that it’s terrible and write off any evidence to the contrary as phony, skewed, fudged, a conspiracy, or whatever the buzz word is this week.
Of course we should all be shocked to find Fox News leading the charge. What a clown show. Any time I watch Fox News I half expect someone to slam a pie into Sean Hannity’s big smug face midway through his 1 millionth segment attacking Obama and for the whole crew to start chasing each other around spraying water everywhere.
Bush I lost in that election.
As we talked about Reagan, he was coming off of ten years when his unemployment rate was lower than the average.
The problem for Obama is that from 1984 until he took office, unemployment was never as bad in any year from 1984 to 2009 as it was at any year during the Obama time.
I’m not that convinced by the argument that 7.4% unemployment was a lot better than 7.8% because the 10 year average was 7.6% then and the 10 year average is 6.7% now. That is helpful perhaps from an optimism standpoint but from the standpoint of economic strength it seems meaningless.
An argument might be made that a changing workforce has actually grown the level of natural unemployment to the point where we will not see 4% or even 5% again without major structural changes in the workforce such as a baby boom.
The natural unemployment rate in 1984 was around 4%. Today it’s somewhere above 5% or higher. That would mean that 7.4% would actually be more harmful to the economy in 1984 than 7.8% is right now.
As an aside, the observation that no incumbent president has been reelected with the unemployment rate above 8% is irrelevant. Where does that idea come from? No president has even run for re-election with unemployment above 8% except for FDR and he won. That kind of unemployment is rare in our lifetimes.
So this delusion is two fold. The right has imagined a threshold that the President has to meet, and then imagined that he’s fudged the numbers in order to meet that imagined threshold.
It isn’t that much better. But we also were experience robust economic growth. Under Obama, we have not reached the long term average, much less anything we could call robust.
Re “natural unemployment” back in the 1980s lots of people said the natural rate was around 6%. They were mistaken. The natural rate would be the flow and friction. This would not be raised by baby boomer retirement, in fact it would lowered, since there could develop labor shortages.
Re reelection and “That kind of unemployment is rare in our lifetimes.” You said it. The kind of terrible performance we had under Obama is unprecedented in our lifetimes. What a truly horrible record Obama has run up.
Re unemployment numbers - these are statistical. You have to look at them in that way. What will you say if the numbers on November 2 tick back above 8%? They could do this, given how this stuff works. I bet there would be a lot of Democrats complaining then. This is the natural ebb and flow of complaints depending on who is impacted. In fact, leftist conspiracy theorist will think it was the plan to give a good report to “inoculate” against improvements and if it ticks up to mess with the election. There is now no possible upside for Obama on November 2. If it drops a little, nobody will care; if it goes up at all it will indicate failure. It would have been far better to tick down now and break that 8% barrier a few days before election day.
What is more, Obama just sucks as president. What I mean by that is that he is a whiner, always complaining about what he inherited and telling why he could not succeed. I want a real leader, one who looks to the future instead of trying to blame for the past. I do not think Obama is up to the job.
C&J: “The kind of terrible performance we had under Obama is unprecedented in our lifetimes. What a truly horrible record Obama has run up.”
It’s been tough, but that matters more if you seek to blame him for the structural failures in the economy and you deny him credit for the success of the stimulus. There is a sense from the right that it could have been better (without being able to say how he could have done it), it’s still terrible now, and that it will continue to be this way for four more years if he’s re-elected. This is of course untrue on all three accounts.
Obama’s actions along with Congress prevented a depression, prevented a meltdown with the auto industry, helped stabilize the banks, and in the meantime extended unemployment benefits and food stamps to millions of struggling families along the way.
You take where we’re at now and compare it to where Reagan got and you say therefore Obama failed. You refuse to take into account the nature of this recession and where we were when Obama took office, and worse you insist Obama stop reminding folks that all this trouble started on President Bush’s watch.
Why should he stop reminding folks? Your side wants back in power to put the same policies back in place that have failed to help anyone but the rich. You’re actually running on the ability to better clean up a mess you created.
Everything seems to be displaced for you. It’s not Bush’s foreign policy that’s weakened us, not his economic policy that left decades worth of growth in ruins, nor is it his policies that caused the deficit, and any suggestion to the contrary is met with outrage and accusations of trying to excuse the current President’s mistakes.
It’s just that we can’t trace much of anything to his mistakes, except by the conservative’s self-serving narratives. There’s no Lehman Brothers, there’s no major industry collapse, his spending increases are nowhere near the Republicans you admire as leaders and don’t criticize. He was handed both wars he’s got on his plate.
Handed that, and though things get better slowly, they;’re not sliding off the edge into the abyss, like they were when the last President was in charge.
Republicans need to recognize that picking lousy leaders has become a feature, not a bug, of the conservative movement, because they’ve associated opposing the excesses of government with opposing the normal operation of government, so it’s no longer a negative so much for conservative leaders to fail. Of course, Democrats can’t be allowed to succeed, and Republicans can’t acknowledge when Democrat succeeds, because that would further the wrong cause in their minds.
Romney’s a perfect candidate for you all, because his basic style revolves around winning no matter what, not keeping to consistent principles.
Obama has been president for four years. Democrats controlled the Senate since 2006 and they controlled both the House and the Senate for the four years between 2006-10. Democrats also controlled the Senate when the Iraq resolution passed.
So if Obama is reelected, will it be his problem by 2016 or will that still be Bush’s fault?
You know, Germany was flattened by the war. There was almost nothing standing in many cities. In the time it took Obama to do nothing much, Germany was zooming ahead. Four years is a long time.
Even if you want to blame Bush, clearly Obama is not man enough to fix the problem. We need new and better leaders.
C&J: “Even if you want to blame Bush, clearly Obama is not man enough to fix the problem. We need new and better leaders.”
There you go again, pretending anyone anticipates the next four years to be like the last four years. This is a Romney lie he keeps repeating, countering it with a suggestion that he’ll instead create 12 million new jobs, a number that folks predict the economy will create already without Romney.
If Obama is reelected, what does he plan to do differently?
Does he need to do something differently?
What Bush did, and the consequences of what Bush did will always be his fault, and there is nothing you can do about that. I mean, you folks keep on talking as if the bulk of the economic troubles have happened Since Obama got into office.
But this neglects that the strongest GDP damage, not to mention around four million job losses, occured before Obama even had the chance to get into office, and that his stimulus was overmatched by the sheer scale of the economic disaster, since it was meant for something a third smaller.
And for the most part, your side has been loath to give him credit on anything that actually worked, including the stimulus, including the Auto Bailout. In fact your folks were in there saying that folks should buy from other than GM. You were rooting for the rescued companies to fail!
Most of the job losses occured within six months of his inauguration, and 92% within the next year. This means that there was some significant effect because of the stimulus, because if the job losses kept their average pace, we would have lost millions of more jobs, and unemployment would be up at 11.5%, which would have been significantly more difficult to recover from than 10%
And Republicans were rooting for that to fail, too, and despite what a consensus of what economists surveyed said, you claim it failed.
Is it wonderful how every bit of data gets spun to absolutely remove him getting any credit for the recovery? And of course, you repeat that myth of total control, despite the fact that you have also loyally supported the efforts in the Congress that effectively took that control away with an unprecedented level of procedural obstruction. Unprecedented, as in nobody has blocked so many bills in such a short time, as your side has in the two Congresses before. We had control, and because of that got a lot done. But that fraction that we were able to do is small part of what we could have done had the Republicans not decided to use their power in the Senate to ensure in your minority leader’s own words that Obama is made a one term president.
You guys have made it difficult to follow up what the President started in terms of jobs bill with the Stimulus with anything additional. Why? Because you knew if he succeeded, you would lose the economy as a bludgeon against him. You would also lose your jealously coveted hold on the popular imagination in terms of the paradigm of government. The era of big government being over, would be over, and keeping that era going is more of a priority that allowing a timely use of policy to get us out of our current mess.
I find it interesting that Republicans speak of constitutional originalism, yet used a procedural block which does not have its origins in the framer’s system. Under the Framer’s system, the Democrats would have been able to pass much more legislation, as the people evidently wanted them to, by the numbers to which they were elected, and folks would have seen the real merits, good or bad, of the stuff we promoted.
Instead, using the filibuster as even its original practitioners never dreamed it would be used, as a minority’s veto on a broad legislative agenda, the Republicans deliberately, and in many ways successfully crippled the Democrat’s ability to react and do work on the issues at hand.
And of course, Obama gets the blame. The Democrats, who were supposed to be all powerful with sixty votes, get the blame, not the people holding the torch to the circus tent, not the people deliberately ****ing up the process the framers designed to pass legislation on majority rules in order to get their next presidential candidate elected.
It’s time for the blame game to stop, and the merit game to begin. It’s time to recognize that this President, unlike the last, has not precipitated any crisis, that it is instead his opponents, who, for ideological reasons, have pushed both policy and politics in a direction that risks our nation’s good fortunes, just so they can get back the power they so jealously want, and discredit the movement that would replace their discredited movement.
Remember it is the RATE of growth, not the total. If you burn a forest, it may take a long time to grow back, but within a few years the RATE of growth will be very high.
The same usually goes for economics. In other recessions and even in the great depression after some years the RATE of growth spiked. What Obama has managed is to recover without achieving a growth rate sufficient EVER to catch up with the losses. This has never before happened in my lifetime.
Of course, according to you guys, Obama faced a tougher challenges than the Germans did in 1945 or Lincoln did in 1865. He failed because it was just too hard for him. Maybe it is not the size of the challenge but the size of the man.
A second forcast from the U of C, shows a Romney win.
“An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.
The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change”
Now the Obama campaign is placing hope and change in the Biden/Ryan debate. It’s pretty bad when the left has to place all their hope on a goofy old gaff prone senior. It’s ironic that Obama is the “intellectual one” who can’t debate; and Biden is the “gaff prone old man” who is supposed to save Obama’s ass. Gotta love this circus.
Read about the concept of metastability, and you may understand the depth of the damage your party did by allowing the predatory lending and the proliferating of the black box market in derivatives to proliferate.
The Recessions of recent memory, at least in both our lifetimes, were primarily due to pressures that could be relieved. An energy crisis is lifted when OPEC restarts production, interest rates get lowered, and you have the manufacturing sector to provide new jobs as people buy new products here and abroad as the recovery begins.
This recession’s causes aren’t so easy to reverse. People and banks are having to deleverage, there is no magic supply increase waiting with energy, and interest rates are low as they can go.
You can talk greatness, write poetry to the stature of Romney, but those are unprovables, opinions that constitute little more than electoral trash talk.
Keep kidding yourself about that model. :-)
SD writes; “We had control, and because of that got a lot done.”
I am not surprised that Mr. Daugherty likes to have it both ways. He admits that the dems got a lot done, and at the same time blames Reps for not getting more done. What happened to the dems…did they run out of steam?
The dems accomplished their primary goal of obamacare and weren’t as disciplined, and outrageously willing to compromise all dignity and the outright purchase of votes, for other unpopular legislation. The dems used all their power of threats, reward, and chicanery to shove obamacare through and simply were worn out and their bag of tricks emptied by the effort.
With nearly all of obama’s and the dems political capital squandered on obamacare, they had little left to force other publicly unwanted legislation.
You would be amazed what you can get done when you work five day weeks, rather than just two, and both houses can agree on something. Even when eighty percent of it’s getting blocked, it’s still more than what your people have been bothered to do.
It’s not having it both ways, it’s being a productive Congress despite a major handicap, because you actually like governing, getting things done.
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