Democrats & Liberals Archives

Whoever Wins Most Today Won't Gain Much Ground in Delegates

Super Tuesday isn’t so super, as many have already pointed out. The striking thing I find is that not one of the 10 states voting today is a standard winner-take-all. Some of the states are winner-take-all if a candidate wins 50% but that doesn’t seem likely at this point.

The way I see it, Romney has Massachusetts, Idaho and Vermont locked up. That probably means he'll win in Virginia as well. He'll probably win Ohio too since he leads there by a little and has the advantage in the race. I don't have any polls for Idaho but it has a big Mormon population so you do the math.

Santorum will almost certainly win Oklahoma. He could win North Dakota, Alaska, Tennessee as well just as an anti-Romney conservative vote.

Gingrich will win Georgia for sure but it's probably the final race he'll win this year. His campaign is on life support. Who knows when he'll pull the plug? He may get out just to boost the front runner. I don't buy that he's bitter enough to hurt Romney and give the race to Obama.

Paul will collect a few more delegates today. I imagine he will stay in as long as he's winning delegates but he won't have much impact on the race.

All that Romney can do today is solidify his standing as front runner. He won't make any huge leap forward in delegates compared to the rest of the candidates. The only goal he has today is to make Santorum look weak. If he succeeds at that then it's just a matter of time before he reaches the magic number.

Santorum would really need to surprise in several states to come out looking stronger. I tend to lean toward Santorum coming out of today looking weaker and mostly punchless. More and more folks are lining up behind Romney every day. Romney certainly can't finish the race today by a long shot but he can pretty much decide the outcome if certain things fall his way.

Prediction:


  • Alaska: Santorum

  • Georgia: Gingrich

  • Idaho: Romney

  • Massachussetts: Romney

  • North Dakota: Santorum

  • Ohio: Romney

  • Oklahoma: Santorum

  • Tennessee: Santorum

  • Vermont: Romney

  • Virginia: Romney


Posted by Adam Ducker at March 6, 2012 9:25 AM
Comments
Comment #337706

Adam,
Well, I thought all along that this Super Tuesday would be the time Romney delivered the knock out punch. He has too much money and he is better organized than his opponents. Case in point: VA. Gingrich and Santorum have such poor organizations, they did not even get on the ballot. In a contest between Romney & Paul, Romney should take most of those 49 delegates. Another case in point: OH. Santorum failed to get on the ballot in contests for 18 of the delegates.

Still, one can hope Santorum will pull down enough to keep destroying the GOP with his Culture War. Thanks to recent events, right now every woman in America hates the GOP. Romney had a terrific opportunity to corner the vote of women and he failed to take full advantage. Still, it will be interesting to see how the exit polls break it down. My guess is that Romney will crush Santorum and Gingrich among female voters despite his lackluster political skills, his inability to recognize and seize a political opportunity.

Posted by: phx8 at March 6, 2012 1:19 PM
Comment #337707

Btw, turnout will be very interesting as well. To date, the GOP has seen 9% lower turnout than in 2008. That does not bode well for GOP hopes in November. We all know how 2008 turned out. Turnout among women will also be worth watching. Will they not bother to vote? Again, I cannot overemphasize the enormous damage the Republican Party has done to itself, in large part because of these extended primaries and the catering to a narrow, rabid base. The GOP believes Christians are subject to religious discrimination, which is silly, but then choose to fight that battle by making the denial of contraception to women a matter of religious freedom in the workplace. Incredible. And then, they won’t let it go! It’s as if, in their zeal to believe their own propaganda, they’ve forgotten the basic concept of the general election is to win more votes than the other guy. Again, that’s part of the problem with an extended primary. The candidates have to kowtow to the base, which alienates the general electorate.

Well, let’s see what happens with the voting.

Posted by: phx8 at March 6, 2012 1:35 PM
Comment #337708

I don’t see the “denial of contraception” propaganda lie having a whole lot of impact on these primaries Phx8.
However, I can see it working a little in the general election where people vote how their TV tells them to.

Posted by: kctim at March 6, 2012 2:31 PM
Comment #337709

kctim,
Regardless of what you think of the merits of the argument, the perception is clear, and that drives politics. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R- AK) went to her home state this weekend and received an earful from women voters. She now regrets that she voted for the Blunt amendment.

“I have never had a vote I’ve taken where I have felt that I let down more people that believed in me.”

The perception among women is that the GOP wants to deny them coverage for contraception as a matter of religious freedom. That makes every woman in the country hate the GOP. When a Rush Limbaugh then resorts to three days of misogenist attacks against a young woman, the reaction gets even worse.

By the way, about 15% of all women use The Pill for other medical reasons, including control of menopausal symptoms and for hormone replacement therapy. I personally know several women in that situation.

The funny thing is the absolute inability of conservatives to understand this controversy. A classic example was the hearing held by Issa in the House, where five star witnesses kicked off the proceeding- all old men. As a matter of religious freedom, they want to deny contraception coverage to women in workplaces. Maybe it’s just TV, but a picture speaks a thousand words.

Posted by: phx8 at March 6, 2012 2:49 PM
Comment #337710

Phx8

I agree, the left and the media have given women the false perception that the GOP is trying to deny women contraception. I’m just not sure it will have the dire effect you mention with voters in the primaries. These voters are usually the people who are willing to be inform of what the facts actually are.

I think by the time the general election rolls around, the great majority of Republican women will have heard the facts and will understand that at no time was the GOP proposing to deny them contraception.
I admit I could be wrong, but the right leaning women I know are smart enough to understand that the lack of a government mandate does not mean banned.

“By the way, about 15% of all women use The Pill for other medical reasons, including control of menopausal symptoms and for hormone replacement therapy. I personally know several women in that situation.”

I know a few myself and they would still be able to get The Pill if government was to respect religion and choice.
NOBODY was proposing to ban contraception.

“As a matter of religious freedom, they want to deny contraception coverage to women in workplaces”

No, the funny thing is that people are believing this lie, for now.

And yes, from what I have read, Rush did go a little crazy, but it was no worse than what we have heard from others. Rush knows being on the right means he has to play by a different set of rules, so it’s his fault. I really don’t care about Rush though, sorry.

As far as this 30 year old “young woman,” her attitude that she is entitled to free contraception is ridiculous.

Posted by: kctim at March 6, 2012 3:39 PM
Comment #337711

kctim,
It is not a misperception and it is not a lie. The Republicans sought to deny contraception coverage through the Blunt amendment. That amendment allowed any organization- religious or secular- to not permit coverage if they had a religious or moral objection. That pertained to any kind of coverage: contraception, immunizations, medicine for HIV treatments, and so on.

Remember, we’re NOT talking about taxpayer money here to cover medical costs. We’re talking about insurance coverage. We’re talking about legal drugs and treatments, and whether people should be able to acquire them through their insurance coverage, or whether an employer should be able to pick and choose what would be covered for employees based solely upon the employer’s religious or moral convictions. Doesn’t matter if the drug is legal or not. It’s just a question of whether it matches the employer’s wishes.

Should there be a co-pay or cost, or should The Pill in particular be offered at no cost? It is the most widely prescribed drug out there. It is prescribed for good reasons. It saves a lot of money, and gives women control over their own bodies, and helps them maintain their health.

The cost of not making The Pill available is large, both medically and culturally.

That doesn’t mean an insurance company can’t build the costs into the overall premium. I’m sure they do. It’s the only sensible way to approach this. Common sense is not the same as entitlement. It is common sense.

Like I said, let’s look at the GOP turnout tonight in the primaries & caucuses. Let’s see if women show up, and if so, how they vote.

Posted by: phx8 at March 6, 2012 4:04 PM
Comment #337712

Phx8

Does the Blunt amendment say “not permit coverage” at all, or does it say that the provider cannot be required to provide a specific item or service?
The fact is that women would still be able to acquire coverage for contraception, or buy it anywhere they wanted. Contraception was not being denied to anyone.
The misperception is that women would be denied contraception and that is an intentional lie that has been deliberately promoted to scare up votes.

It doesn’t matter if The Pill makes you crap gold, insurance companies should have the right to cover what they want; employers should have the right to choose the plan they want; and individuals should have the right to accept that plan or find a different one that they want.

Of course insurance company’s build the cost into the premium, that is why people say they are being forced to support something they disagree with.

As I said, I believe the general election will give us a better measurement of whether the GOP women believed the lie or the facts.

Posted by: kctim at March 6, 2012 4:48 PM
Comment #337716

Here is the relevant text from the Blunt amendment:

“A health plan shall not be considered to have failed to provide the essential health benefits package described in subsection (a) (or preventive health services described in section 2713 of the Public Health Service Act), to fail to be a qualified health plan, or to fail to fulfill any other requirement under this title on the basis that it declines to provide coverage of specific items or services because–

“(i) providing coverage (or, in the case of a sponsor of a group health plan, paying for coverage) of such specific items or services is contrary to the religious beliefs or moral convictions of the sponsor, issuer, or other entity offering the plan; or

“(ii) such coverage (in the case of individual coverage) is contrary to the religious beliefs or moral convictions of the purchaser or beneficiary of the coverage.”

So! Contraception (and other treatments) can be denied if it is “contrary to the religious beliefs or moral convictions” of any entity. Any entity.

Insurance companies cannot discriminate against groups based upon a “freedom of religion” argument. Disagreeing with coverage of a particular drug or treatment does not entitle one person to discriminate against all others, even if that person is an employer and the subjects are employees.

Now, a religious institution can discriminate based upon religious convictions. They do it all the time. However, in the secular world of the marketplace, discrimination based upon gender or age or race or ethnicity is not permitted.

But by all means, encourage women to understand that it is only fair, as a matter of freedom, that The Pill may not be covered by insurers. Keep making that argument.

Posted by: phx8 at March 6, 2012 5:06 PM
Comment #337719

By the way- it is cheaper for an insurance provider to offer The Pill at no cost, rather than pay for the consequences of not making it available for free. An insurer in the business of insurance WANTS women to use The Pill, as a matter of dollars and cents. That is what is best for the bottom line of the insurer.

Posted by: phx8 at March 6, 2012 5:20 PM
Comment #337722

Phx8
It is only denied if it is not available. So, would respecting religious freedoms make contraception or the coverage of contraception, totally unavailable or banned? No it would not.

All you are arguing for is that any entity should be forced to cater to what you believe, instead of what they believe. I am going to guess that this is because you believe contraception should be “free” to all.

I, on the other hand, believe women are quite capable of choosing who they work for and are more than capable to find the insurance plan they want, on their own.

“But by all means, encourage women to understand that it is only fair, as a matter of freedom, that The Pill may not be covered by insurers. Keep making that argument”

Again, nobody has said they didn’t want contraception covered by insurers, except for the left. Respecting religious freedoms will not magically make contraception unavailable for any woman and your cost effectiveness part about The Pill explains why.

Posted by: kctim at March 6, 2012 5:58 PM
Comment #337725


In the last three days, I received at least 8 robo calls from the Romney camp and none from the other Republican candidates. It is rather obvious who has the money.

Posted by: jlw at March 6, 2012 7:24 PM
Comment #337751

A lot of commentators think that the rule requires insurance companies to give the pill away for “free.” That isn’t true. Insurers can’t charge a co-pay or a deductible for the pill but the cost is certainly factored into their overall premium similar to annual physicals and other preventive medicine requirements which must be provided without co-pays.

Posted by: Rich at March 7, 2012 7:26 AM
Comment #337754

I’m drowning here…. Who’s going to save me?

I’m drowning in over priced gasoline for my over priced car, I’m drowning in the late fees I pay when I can’t afford to pay my rent on time, I’m drowning in all the B/S these candidates are feeding us just to have access the oval office and add a notch to their resume’, I’m drowning in private school payments for my children because the public school system is mostly a joke…… Who’s Going To Save Me?

Posted by: Who Will Lead Us? at March 7, 2012 7:51 AM
Comment #337757

Adam,
I heard on the news that Romney got six states? You predicted 5 man, nice job. Which one did you miss and why do you think you were off?

Posted by: kctim at March 7, 2012 9:29 AM
Comment #337759

Rich
Nothing is “free,” which is why we have the problems we have now.
One group has total disregard for the beliefs of the people where they get their “free” money from, and the other group believes they should have a say in how the money taken from them should be used. They understand something like The Pill is built into the premium, which is why those against The Pill do not wish to pay for its use.

Posted by: kctim at March 7, 2012 9:48 AM
Comment #337762

kctim: “You predicted 5 man, nice job. Which one did you miss and why do you think you were off?”

I came so close to 10 for 10. I predicted Santorum for Alaska but Romney won by 3% or just 315 votes. Dang. I figured Santorum would continue doing well in states with working class conservatives where Romney wasn’t spending much money or where there weren’t a bunch of Mormons to help him out. That pattern certainly held up last night.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at March 7, 2012 10:16 AM
Comment #337763

Who will lead us,
If you are paying for private school, you are not drowning. You are whining.

Adam,
The results met my expectations too. Two weeks ago, Santorum had a big lead in the polls for Ohio. Romney carpet bombed the state with negative advertising in those last two weeks. He outspent Santorum 12 - 1. That’s an amazing number.

The problem with Romney’s approach is that it drives up his unfavorability ratings. While Obama’s approval ratings climb, Romney is actually underwater. He may buy the nomination with negative advertising, but that approach will make him unelectable in the general election. Worse for Romney, he won’t have that kind of 12 - 1 spending superiority in the general election. If Romney is forced to continue spending so much for the nomination, he will be on the receiving end when Obama outspends him.

It’s a funny thing. All that money, yet no one likes Romney. He’s a suit. Everyone knows he lies all the time, but no one cares, because that’s what a suit does.

“Winning” primaries and caucuses makes for headlines and creates the sense of excitement that comes with a horse race, but what matters are delegates, and Romney is slowly but surely extending his lead and building towards a majority, or at least a plurality. Really, for all practical purposes, this contest is over…

Posted by: phx8 at March 7, 2012 11:01 AM
Comment #337764

Kinda like the 08 democrat primaries, phx8. The negative ads are just beginning just wait until the primaries are over then wec will see real negative ads.

Posted by: KAP at March 7, 2012 11:07 AM
Comment #337765

Oregon doesn’t see much negative advertising because it is so solidly blue. That’s good. However, it also means presidential candidates ignore the state every election.

GOP turnout for Super Tuesday was very low again. Two states, ND and Vermont, saw higher turnout, and they are small states. The other states saw lower turnout- in some cases, very low. That’s not even counting VA. Despite a horse race, Republicans are just not showing up. The lack of enthusiasm is a matter of numbers.

Posted by: phx8 at March 7, 2012 11:14 AM
Comment #337774

Turnout: Ohio saw increased GOP turnout. Excluding states that switched from primaries to caucuses, and VA, which did not see two candidates on the ballot, turnout continues to run about 9% down from last year.

Exit polls re women voters: havent’ seen anything yet. Polls show women favoring Obama by an overwhelming margin. Gee. Wonder why.

Posted by: phx8 at March 7, 2012 3:52 PM
Comment #337843

Phx8:

The general trend seems to be higher turnout in states where there’s a battle like South Carolina, Michigan, and Ohio. Otherwise the races have been pretty “meh” inducing for voters. I wouldn’t suggest normally that low turnout in the primary means low turnout in the election but this has to be troubling to conservatives either way. I’m not sure they pictured having such a weak field going into this year.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at March 8, 2012 1:10 AM
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