Democrats & Liberals Archives

Logic Is Sometimes Hard

Long ago I used to comment at the website Blogs For Bush. I’ve always had more fun arguing my views with conservatives than agreeing with liberals. But if you disagree with a political blogger you’re generally called a troll and you’re sent packing one way or another. Blogs For Bush was known for that. Today I stopped in at the latest incarnation of Blogs For Bush and found a hilarious post.

The post in question relates to President Obama and oil policies. Check out this gem:

Get that, folks? President Bush was responsible for $1.60 a gallon gasoline simply because he lifted offshore drilling in name, not in law. Then what did Obama turn around do? After the worst spill in the history of the world Obama prevented new drilling in the Gulf and that caused gas prices to go up. Right? Anyone?

This is a hilarious leap of logic that ignores the cause of changes in gas prices in 2008 and up to now. This thinking allows the right to say things like, "When Obama took office gas was $1.60 and now it's heading toward $4 again!"

Of course the truth is each increase and decline in gas prices coincides with actual events that impact the price of oil. Funny how that works, right? This has recently been mainly demand based. For instance in 2008 as our financial systems were imploding so was the ability of industry players to get credit to purchase oil and gas with so demand dropped. Prices spiked in 2011 as demand grew while world economies started growing again.

This was a new one for me. I had just assumed both sides agreed to why gas dropped in 2008. I didn't know some folks out there wanted us to believe it was President Bush's doing. In the comment thread some folks pointed out the real cause of the drop and that it had nothing to do with Bush's drilling policy change. Of course they got shouted down by the other conservatives. Some things over there at the site never change.

In the end though it's a given that both sides will play politics with gas prices. It's a winning formula. I just wish folks like Matt Margolis would use something more substantial as their argument and actually check their facts.

Posted by Adam Ducker at March 1, 2012 12:27 PM
Comments
Comment #337523

Adam seriously? These guys are comedians aren’t they? Kinda like Colbert, aren’t they? I mean from their link to the CNN piece offering proof of GWB’s lifting of the exeutive ban on offshore drilling is this gem:


“President Bush lifted an executive order banning offshore oil drilling on Monday and urged Congress to follow suit….

However, the move is largely symbolic as there is also a federal law banning offshore drilling.”

http://articles.cnn.com/2008-07-14/politics/bush.offshore_1_offshore-oil-drilling-fadel-gheit-exploration?_s=PM:POLITICS

Which of course makes the rest of their gibberish just that much more hilarious. DO conservatives actually believe this stuff?

Posted by: j2t2 at March 1, 2012 11:16 PM
Comment #337539

These guys are silly.
It is more logical that EVERYBODY knows Bush raised prices so he and his oil buddies could make tons and tons of money.

Posted by: kctim at March 2, 2012 11:06 AM
Comment #337544

Adam,

You’re correct about the supply/demand impact, but I think you’re overlooking the effects of speculation, more specifically, the geopolitical factors that help form the basis for speculation. Though some conservatives don’t like to admit it, the reality is that speculation is one of the factors that drives the price of oil.

Bush lifted the ban on drilling, but also announced around the same time that he would release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to make sure that there was adequate supply. While the amount he said he would release from the SPR was only 70 million barrels (about 3 1/2 days worth), the message that was sent to the markets is that the Bush Administration would take action.

Speculators now factored into their decision making process the fact that U.S. policy would be focused towards increasing the oil supply, rather than decreasing it. The logical conclusion was that it was much more likely that prices would decrease and speculators took positions accordingly. In essence, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I think it’s also important to point out the speculation is not a bad thing. Many like to blame speculators for oil prices and evoke the caricature of some guy in a pin-striped suit, smoking a Cuban in his Wall Street office. That really isn’t accurate, though. While those people certainly exist, most of the speculation is done by companies that have a vested interest in the product, like refineries, airlines, large transportation companies, etc.

As an example, in 2008, airlines were hiking their fares to cover their increased fuel cost. Southwest Airlines, by contrast, kept their fares low. Why? Because they hedged their fuel cost by buying oil futures at around $60bbl when everyone else was paying upwards of $130bbl. This was good for SWA and Consumers alike. This would make SWA a speculator, but once again, that’s a good thing.

Speculation doesn’t manipulate the market, it stabilizes it. There are many other factors that influence the price of oil, but for the sake of brevity, I won’t go into them.

The fact is that the Energy Policy set by any Administration will have a direct impact on the price of oil. If a President enacts a policy that will ultimately reduce supply or make it more costly to extract, prices will go up accordingly and vice versa.

Posted by: Kevin Nye at March 2, 2012 1:55 PM
Comment #337546

Kevin:

I agree that there are multiple moving pieces when it comes to the price of oil including actions of the president. Indeed, the article I cited lists multiple reasons beyond simply demand that was a factor though demand was the biggest. Margolis won’t find his argument in that list even as a tiny contributing factor.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at March 2, 2012 2:49 PM
Comment #337550

Fair point.

Posted by: Kevin Nye at March 2, 2012 5:55 PM
Comment #337570

Bush, if he can be said to bring down gas prices, did so by devastating consumer and producer demand for oil. Or put another way, gee, Obama can crash the economy, too, and get the same results!

Also, aren’t we forgetting something, my Republican and Right Wing Friends? Aren’t we forgetting that the huge increases in oil and gas prices came mainly in the Bush years?

Are we going to ignore the introduction of more expensive ethanol as a fuel additive, the merger of different oil companies which reduced competition and decreased the number of refineries? Are we going to ignore the way the Bush Administration promoted energy speculation, which basically drove up prices?

Are we also going to ignore the fact that new sources of production are going to be more expensive to drill and/or extract, that a lot of the easy stuff has already been tapped, and in many places already in decline?

Blaming Obama for the fact gas is getting more expensive is just election year politics. Truth is, oil is simply a scarce resource, and there will be no producing more of it in order to ease its price. When we can create some artificial substitute, then it will be possible to do so, but until then, the plain truth is that we can only find it, and the easy, cheap to harvest stuff is getting rarer by the day.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at March 3, 2012 1:44 PM
Comment #337574


I see the rise and fall of gas prices as an acknowledgement that oil and gas prices are going to continue to rise and setting artificial comfort zones as part of the process.

We are talking about sources of energy that are going to continue to rise in cost and produce even greater profits. It is not unreasonable for those who deal in those products to do whatever they can to delay all attempts to seek alternative sources of energy, including lying to people by promising unreasonably low prices.

Oil has been a political ploy every since people have learned what the creation of OPEC implied. No enterprise has been more successful at using the political system to delay; for nearly four decades now.

Posted by: jlw at March 3, 2012 5:08 PM
Comment #337580

“Blaming Obama for the fact gas is getting more expensive is just election year politics. Truth is, oil is simply a scarce resource, and there will be no producing more of it in order to ease its price. When we can create some artificial substitute, then it will be possible to do so, but until then, the plain truth is that we can only find it, and the easy, cheap to harvest stuff is getting rarer by the day.”

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at March 3, 2012 1:44 PM

How long are you guys going to insist on spreading this BS. You blamed Bush for high gas prices when he was in office and in this same post that exonerates Obama for high oil prices, Mr. Daugherty once again blames Bush, “Aren’t we forgetting that the huge increases in oil and gas prices came mainly in the Bush years?” Tell us again, what was the price of gas when Obama took the reins from Bush? Then, we always have the liberal talking point that it will take 10 years to actually produce oil now if we start drilling today…correction the liberal talking point today is that it will take 20 years to produce oil if we start drilling today. Or how about this one “we can’t drill our way out of the oil crises”. Perhaps this is why VP Biden demanded that the Saudi’s produce more oil?

None of what Stephen Daugherty says makes any sense. In 2008 he blamed the speculators for the high price of oil. Today he says there is a scarcity of oil; causing the high price. Is SD saying that speculators are now correct for driving up the price of oil, because of the shortage? He supports Obama’s plan to shut down oil wells in America, in order for the scarcity to continue; and yet he has no problem with Obama going to the Saudi’s and asking for an increase in production, yet he and the rest of the socialist liberals condemned Bush for asking the Saudi’s to produce more oil. Of course he also has no problem with the democrats asking for a release of oil from the strategic oil reserves… in order to bring down the price. So what is it SD, is Obama creating the same artificial oil shortage as you accused Bush of doing? Your argument that “the plain truth is that we can only find it, and the easy, cheap to harvest stuff is getting rarer by the day” is becoming a laughable joke when new sources of oil are being found and yet no permits are allowed to drill for it.

Posted by: TomT at March 3, 2012 9:47 PM
Comment #337582


Is oil a rare substance?

All the gold that has ever been found will still be around long after oil has left town.


Posted by: jlw at March 3, 2012 11:02 PM
Comment #337588

TomT: “Tell us again, what was the price of gas when Obama took the reins from Bush?”

How is an artificially low value of oil the responsibility of Obama to maintain? How would it even have been possible to maintain?

Posted by: Adam Ducker at March 4, 2012 11:31 AM
Comment #337603

TomT-
You know, the problem with starting out your argument with telling me to recall what the gas prices were at the beginning of the Bush Administration is that I remember too damn much. It’s kind of hard to forget how high gas prices got under Bush. You can’t make a political issue out of Obama’s gas prices without making one out of Bush.

Only Democrats like me can point to the premises for an actual argument of decreased supply and competition, for speculative interference in a true pricing of the product. Democrats like me can point out that new drilling projects, your new sources of crude, require much greater investment of capital and labor to pull off.

We can point out the resistance Republicans have had for years to increasing fuel efficiency in cars, in fact villifying those who would take away the freedom to gas-guzzle. Now demand for motor vehicles has spread world wide, and we’re no longer the only people driving around cars, burning gas.

I can also point out that the recent boom in oil production comes in part because the new sources are being drilled with new technologies. It’s less that people are just discovering this stuff now, and it’s being pumped out of the ground cheap as it ever was, it’s that the supply was always there, but not necessarily the technology or (most importantly) the price for crude.

Nobody’s going to spend a dollar to bring up a barrel of oil that’s only going to sell for fifty cents. They can drill horizontally and frack to get shale oil, or bake the stuff out of rocks and sand. But either way, the price of bringing up that crude will be priced into the cost per barrel. And they’re not going for these sources simply to drive their own prices up. They know the economics. They simply don’t have the choice.

But we do. We can invest in new technology as a nation that will lessen, and eventually eliminate our dependence on any fossil fuel, much less oil. We can make the transition before we hit the economic roadblock of having the price of oil do it for us.

Or, we can keep on repeating the mistake the Right’s been insisting on repeating since the energy crisis of the 1970s just to play on people’s nostalgia for big machines and lifestyles unecumbered by responsibilities to anybody else.

Me? I think the events of the last decade are telling us that life’s not going to be real fun if we continue our dependence on oil. It’s getting expensive for reasons nobody short of God can fix.

And no, the artificial shortage that’s creating this still isn’t the result of a policy Obama made. It’s one of a myriad of rule changes that your side hasn’t allowed the repeal of. Long story short, You’re relying on a fuel source that’s being burned up with every mile every car drives, and its not coming back. The simplest understanding of economics would tell that to you, and only decades worth of obfuscation by fossil fuel interests has kept that thought from weighing on the minds of Americans.

If I’m lying, tell me why oil shale is such a big deal, why they’re fracking for oil and gas when the alternative is so much cheaper? Tell me why anybody’s having anything to do with tar sands oil, that foul, gunky asphalt-consistency garbage that they have to use tons of natural gas to extract. Why would anybody drill miles below the ocean, like they’re doing in brazil, or as deep as they were with the Macondo prospect, where the Deepwater Horizon blew up? Why not drill in the shallows, or on dry land in the traditional way?

Surely, if you’re right, and we liberals are off about this whole oil scarcity thing, then they wouldn’t bother, would they?

The energy situations not going to get better until we stop indulging in your nostalgic wishful thinking about America somehow drilling its way out of its current troubles.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at March 4, 2012 9:56 PM
Comment #343096

moncler down jackets outlet

http://www.w-market-e.com

Posted by: ol at April 30, 2012 9:50 AM
Comment #360046

Cheap Nike NFL Jerseys have always been regarded a well-known outfits product especially these days with more individuals displaying interest and assistance to their preferred groups and gamers. Dressed in these Cheap Nike NFL Green Bay Packers Jersey is a simple way of displaying off your assistance and allegiance for a certain group. People can best display to the world the group they are following by putting on the shades of their preferred Official NFL Jerseys Shop groups.


Nike NFL elite Jerseys On Sale are great presents for individuals of any age, from children to mature. The choices that are available are incredibly stylish and have been regularly modified. Some individuals use these Nike NFL Limited Jerseys Cheap Sale to demonstrate their design and flavor. These Wholesale Nike NFL Game Jerseys stayed to be stylish. In fact, they are also used by superstars who also want to demonstrate their assistance to their most liked group in Green Bay Packers nike football Jerseys.

Posted by: Cheap Nike NFL Jerseys at January 6, 2013 9:55 PM
Comment #362556

The timing was Coach Factory Outlet no expectation that the investigators would find anything. When the archaeologists initially checked city Coach Factory Outlet records, they were unable to find any indication that a building had been on the propery before Coach Outlet Online 1886. We’re ecstatic about what we found,” said Robert K. Antozzi, the city’s coordinator for the courthouse Coach Online Outlet project. “Now we have a major expansion of the story of Fredericksburg, and that’s really exciting.Shortly Coach Factory Online into the dig, the crew discovered a sandstone cellar wall — a clue that something was preserved below. When Coach Outlet Store Online they dug at another location, it found a brick wall flush against the sidewalk on Princess Anne Street, Coach Outlet Store which runs through downtown. fighting organizations and to funnel both lethal and nonlethal military Coach Factory Stores aid to the rebels. It should unite units of the Free Syrian Army, various militias and brigades in each Coach Handbags Outlet city and large groups of defectors. I certainly get the fact that your daddy’s Republican Party cannot Coach Factory Store win relying singularly on white voters and evangelicals alone as critical as I believe those voters Coach Factory Online are to a majority coalition,” Mr. Reed said. “The good news for conservatives is there are many of Coach Outlet those who have not always felt welcome in our ranks who share our values.This is a once-in-a-lifetime Coach Factory Outlet chance,” said Mr. Kiser, 53, as Brynn Stewart, the project manager, nodded beside him. With the project Coach Outlet Store Online paused, the team raced to document what they concluded was the basement of a building set afire shortly Coach Outlet Online after the Battle of Fredericksburg. The timing was opportune because the battle’s 150-year anniversary is in December, and Fredericksburg has Coach Outlet been preparing to mark the sesquicentennial.

Posted by: Coach Factory Online at March 10, 2013 7:02 AM
Comment #362567

The timing was Coach Factory Outlet no expectation that the investigators would find anything. When the archaeologists initially checked city Coach Factory Outlet records, they were unable to find any indication that a building had been on the propery before Coach Outlet Online 1886. We’re ecstatic about what we found,” said Robert K. Antozzi, the city’s coordinator for the courthouse Coach Online Outlet project. “Now we have a major expansion of the story of Fredericksburg, and that’s really exciting.Shortly Coach Factory Online into the dig, the crew discovered a sandstone cellar wall — a clue that something was preserved below. When Coach Outlet Store Online they dug at another location, it found a brick wall flush against the sidewalk on Princess Anne Street, Coach Outlet Store which runs through downtown. fighting organizations and to funnel both lethal and nonlethal military Coach Factory Stores aid to the rebels. It should unite units of the Free Syrian Army, various militias and brigades in each Coach Handbags Outlet city and large groups of defectors. I certainly get the fact that your daddy’s Republican Party cannot Coach Factory Store win relying singularly on white voters and evangelicals alone as critical as I believe those voters Coach Factory Online are to a majority coalition,” Mr. Reed said. “The good news for conservatives is there are many of Coach Outlet those who have not always felt welcome in our ranks who share our values.This is a once-in-a-lifetime Coach Factory Outlet chance,” said Mr. Kiser, 53, as Brynn Stewart, the project manager, nodded beside him. With the project Coach Outlet Store Online paused, the team raced to document what they concluded was the basement of a building set afire shortly Coach Outlet Online after the Battle of Fredericksburg. The timing was opportune because the battle’s 150-year anniversary is in December, and Fredericksburg has Coach Outlet been preparing to mark the sesquicentennial.

Posted by: Coach Factory Online at March 10, 2013 7:07 AM
Comment #362812

Welcome to visit our Michael Kors Outlet online and you will find elegant and cheap Michael Kors Bags of this brand. Young ladies are crazy about Michael Kors Bags because this brand provides trendy and delicate bags that make them more beautiful. You will find different Click Here available appear in yellow, green, black, white, blue, red, brown, pink, orange, navy and all other kinds of hot and sexy colors so as to attract your eyes and make you crazy. Cheap Michael Kors Handbags produce decent and noble Click Here that can be presented as gifts in many formal or big occasions like wedding anniversary, birthday celebrities, or Christmas gifts. It is smart for you to buy your girlfriend or wife Michael Kors Handbags and they will love that Michael Kors Handbags Sale. The unique and charming accessories can be kept as an antique or for lifetime.
Michael kors Outlet Online must be the ideal choice for Click Here choosing. Michael Kors Handbags are intimate friends for girls and a decent and brandy Michael Kors Sale are necessary for in different occasions. If one day you are depressed that depressed that your long-cherished dreams of owning luxury brand Michael Kors Handbags cannot be realized, you can come to our Michael Kors Outlet and we can provide what you want with cheap prices Click Here. Trust us, our Michael Kors Sale outlet must be the perfect channel and satisfy your needs. Michael Kors Outlet Sale You are not supposed to doubt the quality because Michael Kors Outlet they are all made with the Michael Kors 2013 top luxury material from European countries and the workmanship is superb Michael Kors Sale. The quality and workmanship will Click Herenever let you down. Our outlet also offers the most professional service and we promise 100% satisfaction. Click Here Nice and cheap Michael Kors 2013 are waiting for you to select.

 

Posted by: The North Face Outlet at March 14, 2013 5:40 AM
Comment #362813

Welcome to visit our Michael Kors Outlet online and you will find elegant and cheap Michael Kors Bags of this brand. Young ladies are crazy about Michael Kors Bags because this brand provides trendy and delicate bags that make them more beautiful. You will find different Click Here available appear in yellow, green, black, white, blue, red, brown, pink, orange, navy and all other kinds of hot and sexy colors so as to attract your eyes and make you crazy. Cheap Michael Kors Handbags produce decent and noble Click Here that can be presented as gifts in many formal or big occasions like wedding anniversary, birthday celebrities, or Christmas gifts. It is smart for you to buy your girlfriend or wife Michael Kors Handbags and they will love that Michael Kors Handbags Sale. The unique and charming accessories can be kept as an antique or for lifetime.
Michael kors Outlet Online must be the ideal choice for Click Here choosing. Michael Kors Handbags are intimate friends for girls and a decent and brandy Michael Kors Sale are necessary for in different occasions. If one day you are depressed that depressed that your long-cherished dreams of owning luxury brand Michael Kors Handbags cannot be realized, you can come to our Michael Kors Outlet and we can provide what you want with cheap prices Click Here. Trust us, our Michael Kors Sale outlet must be the perfect channel and satisfy your needs. Michael Kors Outlet Sale You are not supposed to doubt the quality because Michael Kors Outlet they are all made with the Michael Kors 2013 top luxury material from European countries and the workmanship is superb Michael Kors Sale. The quality and workmanship will Click Herenever let you down. Our outlet also offers the most professional service and we promise 100% satisfaction. Click Here Nice and cheap Michael Kors 2013 are waiting for you to select.

 

Posted by: The North Face Outlet at March 14, 2013 5:41 AM
Comment #363156

Cambridge Satchel Sale in UK Cambridge Satchel Co.Here,the most fashion styles Cambridge satchels could be found in our Cambridge Satchel outlet.Young people can always order the newest style Cambridge Satchel and Cambridge bag here.We’re professional in this line for years, so,we can provide you the best Cambridge satchel leather for any purpose.If you’re a super fans of Cambridge Satchel bag,then,you’re lucky here,as 2013 Cambridge backpack and Cambridge satchel classic Sale with Free Delivery Now.

Posted by: cambridge backpack at March 21, 2013 9:37 PM
Comment #363186

2013 Cambridge Satchel Sale in UK Cambridge satchel outlet.Here,all kinds of cambridge satchel could be found,such as Cambridge satchel backpack and classic Cambridge satchel.Don’t need to go to your local Cambridge store now,as all the Cambridge satchels Sale online.Any of the Cambridge bag we offered,was designed by Cambridge satchel company. By the way,we offer Free Worldwide Delivery!

Posted by: cambridge satchel sale at March 21, 2013 11:06 PM
Comment #375110

Who will listen to a concert, North Face Jackets Outlet, of Wang Jie, Longchamp Paris, and Yu tears, of nostalgia trip, will be a blessing for, Gucci Outlet, the hot summer and ecstatic, Coach Factory Online, once for friends, Burberry Outlet, and sentimental romance, Ralph Lauren UK, will be for a long-awaited, Coach Outlet, reunion does not drunk return, Polo Outlet Online, how much passion, Michael Kors Outlet, and difficult moments, Canada Goose Outlet, his own covered with mill edges, Coach Purses Outlet Online, lost his best, North Clearance, those who have been ignored, http://www.guccivshoesfactory.com/, by the vulgar, Polo Lauren Ralph, reality of youth ah, MCM リュック, those pure idealism and vision ah, Gucci Shoes Outlet, I do not know, Marc Jacobs Outlet Online, when to actually be, Coach Factory Outlet Online, covered with dust into years, Coach Purses Outlet, of ruthless thin bookmarks, for a long time, Michael Kors Outlet Online, has forgotten to open, Cheap Hollister UK Online, this is a forgotten era, UGG Boots Sale, subject look back, Coach Outlet Online, adrift.

Posted by: coachbag at December 19, 2013 10:10 PM
Post a comment