Democrats & Liberals Archives

Santorum Makes Bigger Splash Than Romney Wanted

Mitt Romney low balled expectations going into the three states yesterday. That being said, I don’t think that he expected to lose all three contests and finish third place in Minnesota.

Romney's camp put out a statement early yesterday about the inevitability of Romney. This was preparing the way for potential losses in the three states but shrugging off the chance for Gingrich or Santorum to make a difference going forward.

To the surprise of many Santorum won all three contests. Polls were not very prevalent in those states so it's hard to see many last minute shifts. The data showed Romney mostly leading in the weeks before but that's not very useful. Internal polling for Romney clearly showed a shift though or he wouldn't have been putting out press releases like he did.

But does this change anything for Santorum? Probably not. Santorum succeeding is as likely as Ron Paul doing so. That is to say almost no chance. For me though the primary had developed a high yawn factor over the last few weeks so this at least gets me back watching polls again.

It will be interesting to see how Romney frames these losses and what this does for the next few contests in February. You'd think Romney would have read the tea leaves and campaigned in those states. I really have to question Romney's game plan there. They weren't worth delegates as far as I can tell but did someone suggest to Romney that if he lost big that most people wouldn't notice he never campaigned there?

It's the little things that derail a campaign in the end. Just ask Hillary Clinton. As strong as she was she failed to compete correctly in caucus states while Obama competed in every state whether there was hope or not. His camp knew that even 2 or 3 delegates from a state loss was better than zero and it would add up over the long haul building momentum. It's this momentum beyond simple delegate counts that Romney seems to discount at this point in the campaign.

The real clown of the night is Gingrich. He's the third part of a great three man comedy team. Call them the Three Stooges. Democrats should grab the popcorn and kick back and watch the GOP voters decide who they hate the least.

Posted by Adam Ducker at February 8, 2012 8:46 AM
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Missouri went for Santorum and probably won’t be enthused for Romney.
Naturally, Obama is guaranteed almost all of the black vote, the big city vote and the inner city vote. Republicans can only counter this if ALL of Missouri shows up to vote.
With Romney as the candidate, St. Louis and Kansas City will decide for all of Missouri, and Missouri will go for Obama in 2012.

Posted by: kctim at February 8, 2012 12:40 PM
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After listening to Carl Bernstein begin the attack on Santorum this a.m. (Morning Joe) it’s clear this guy won’t last as long as the front runner. Instead of blasting Bernstein for the question (even Mika questioned it) Santorum went on and on about nothing. The guy likes the sound of his own voice too much. He will eventually step in it….

Posted by: George at February 8, 2012 1:19 PM
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Adam,
I was impressed by the depressed GOP turnout compared to 2008. It was down 7% in CO, and 24% in MN. (It was also way down in MO, but that was meaningless). In MN, Santorum courted the vote and received the reward. CO was a bigger surprise. Santorum is a weak candidate with little organization and less money. Neither he nor Gingrich, who did even worse than Romney, have any chance of being nominated. It’s a measure of the deep discontent in the GOP with Romney, as well as Santorum and Gingrich. Take Paul out of the mix, and it gets even worse.

It is looking more and more like a landslide of epic proportions in November. Only Romney’s money and penchant for negative attack ads have any chance of keeping the general election close. Unfortunately for the GOP, the money comes from fellow equity investment fund managers- you know, the ones Republican Governor of Texas Rick Perry referred to as “vulture capitalists”- and knowning they are being owned, lock, stock, and barrel, by a disgusting set of people makes it nearly intolerable.

Obama must be the luckiest politician ever.

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I guess Santorum’s wins keeps the right wing components unrealistic dreams of a brokered convention hanging on by a thread.

What I notice is how many fronts the right wing is fighting on. There is the battle between the evangelical/tea party/libertarian wing VS the moderate or RINO’s in the nominee race. The war to destroy Obama’s presidency. The war on abortion, birth control, and women’s rights in general, on behalf of religious freedom. The war between the RINO’s and the right wing being waged in the Congress, with the moderates claiming that the right wing is harming the party over issues like the budget deal, payroll tax reduction and contraceptives. Then there is the war being waged against labor.

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