January Jobs Report Decent, December and November Also Revised Upward
Employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent. There were 257,000 jobs added in the private sector. This is the fifth straight month of decent growth in the private sector for an average of 202,000 per month.
The workforce grew by 500,000 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 339,000. The unemployment rate declined to 8.3% after being 9.1% in August of 2011. That's not too bad. I still expect the rate to increase slightly over time but not by much.
There is a new sense of optimism for 2012 that wasn't here this time last year. That has to be worrying conservatives who are banking on a weak economy preventing four more years for President Obama. This jobs report sure won't bolster their arguments but I'm sure some will try pretty hard.
There's always a group of people who smear BLS and the numbers and cry foul. I wonder how accurate BLS would seem to these people if the numbers were bad? Remember when zero jobs were created? I don't remember anyone being mad at that report until that was revised upward two months in a row. Then there was complaining about manipulation.
Picture a fat, sweaty Rush Limbaugh barking out, "Folks, you're being lied to!" Indeed, his listeners are. It's just not by who they think it is.
I love the people like this that point to the net job loss under Obama as a point of concern. We lost 4.4 million jobs before Obama ever took office and 4.2 million more in his first 12 months. Since then we've added back 3.1 million jobs. Obama is in the hole 1.1 million nonfarm jobs but just 549,000 private sector jobs. In the next three months Obama will be about to tout a net increase in private sector jobs during his term in office. In the next 6 months he'll be able to tout a net increase overall.
I'm sure some critics are starting to remember that Obama has nothing to do with these last few decent job reports. But that wasn't the case when it made him look bad though was it?
Whether you credit Obama or not, the economy has improved dramatically under Obama. The job growth has been slow but steady. Job growth is a lagging indicator of the positive growth over the last few months and it will spur on more positive growth from here on out. If conservatives were banking on the "Obama doldrums" to give them President Romney then November may be a rough month for these folks.
Posted by Adam Ducker at February 3, 2012 8:41 AM
“January Jobs Report Decent, December and November Also Revised Upward”
Adam ducker, aren’t you the one who argued the numbers are not revised up or down after they first come out? Interesting!!!!
Of course the numbers are revised each month. Twice in fact. My argument has been against those who said the numbers were revised the week after…somehow. That is the argument you made in fact, isn’t it?
Also there are those who said the numbers are always revised downward. They’re not.
Your attempts to make BLS seem like it puts out good looking numbers first then puts out the bad ones later falls way short of the facts.
In fact, Frank, your confusion has you forgetting that I started my post about the December numbers by writing:
December numbers will be subject to 2 more revisions but it’s looking like a decent end for a modest year of job growth.
But again, the numbers come out once a month, and are revised at the time of the next monthly report.
Every time I wrote about BLS somebody tells me the numbers will get revised down next week. Why? Why?
I’m guessing that people are desperate enough now that they’re probably taking jobs away from illegals.
From today’s Huff Post Business…
“A recent study by Washington, D.C. consulting firm Hamilton Place Strategies estimates that there may be three million long-term unemployed people who are currently not being counted by the Labor Department because they have simply given up looking for work. Signs of an improving job market might bring them back to the labor force, which would push the unemployment rate higher.
In fact, the labor force participation rate fell to 63.7 percent in January from 64 percent in December, the lowest since January 1982, suggesting workers are still leaving the labor force.”
My wife and I purchased a new washer and dryer a few days ago from a family owned store in East Texas that has been in business here for 32 years. The owner told me that he employees 45 people and his service reps and installers earn around $70,000 per year.
I was astonished at this figure. I am so accustomed to reading liberal comments about the meager wages of the average American that finding the wages of these average Americans in Texas were so high. And, of course, this store has no union…who-woulda-thunk-it?
The store owner told me that he could use even more service/installer people but can’t find any who are qualified. Granted, it’s hard work with some heavy lifting, but sure beats unemployment. It also requires a good attitude toward the customer, a good driving record, no criminal record and a willingness to work.
The labor participation chart is probably natural and also demonstrates the next great challenge to our country. The economic downturn made the slope steeper, but if you look a few years earlier you will see it was already in decline. That’s because as a workforce we are getting much older, older people retire, and there are fewer young workers to take their place.
With the market doing so well I think you will see folks figuring that they have enough in their 401K’s to stay out of the workforce, or at least cut back to one income. When my wife, who worked for a retiring Congressman, lost her job we were in no hurry to replace it. She’s since gone back to work but only because another opportunity presented itself.
And here’s the problem. People who are not in the workforce don’t pay a lot of taxes. All the more reason to cut the size and scope of the federal government now, because in 10 years about all we are going to be able to afford is Medicare and a minimal defense.
We need public policy that looks ahead to 2020 and not just to November 2012. I understand that news like this might help Obama, and as such opponents of Obama will use anything to discredit good news. All of us remember Bush’s jobless recovery back. But in the end Obama is not responsible for this curve nor should he receive any great credit for a booming economy. It’s natural and could have been predicted years ago.
Ohrealy: “I’m guessing that people are desperate enough now that they’re probably taking jobs away from illegals.”
Or the economy is simply recovering like normal, despite a Democrat being in the White House?
Kathy: “My first question to you Adam Ducker is, why do you have to be so insulting.”
First of all I’ve struggled with obesity for years. I’d argue you’re offended simply because you subscribe to his nonsense and not because you too are overweight like Limbaugh and like myself.
Kathy: “…perhaps you could actually read his transcript and explain where he is wrong…”
I just love reading Limbaugh’s lies. Don’t you? Let’s see.
Limbaugh: “No, that’s not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! … Are you hearing me on this, folks? It is corrupt as it can be.”
They didn’t drop out. The measurement changed due to the census and the change is relfected in January 2012 numbers but not December 2011 so there is a larger than usual gap. Limbaugh couldn’t be bothered to notice BLS says it in the same report he claimed to have read. I guess he just skimmed it looking for bad news he could report on air.
Limbaugh: “We’ll probably get ‘em next week during the adjustment that nobody pays attention to.”
Now I know where conservatives on this site get that argument. It’s not true of course. Limbaugh is confusing the different measurements either because he’s ignorant or simply to lie more to his audience. Maybe both. He’s paid a lot to lie. His listeners don’t want the truth.
Limbuagh: “The number of jobs in December, 132,952,000. The number of jobs in January, 130,400… so there are actually two and half million fewer people working in January than there were in December. But those are raw numbers.”
Ah, Limbaugh didn’t like the more useful seasonally adjusted numbers so he’s got to switch to the unadjusted. Of course those numbers are all over the board, which is why they’re adjusted. For instance there were +800,000 more unadjusted jobs in October 2011 while the adjusted figures showed +112. I wonder if Limbaugh was concerned about the adjustment back then?
Limbaugh: “That’s 15.1% and that’s the combined total of people who’ve given up looking for work.”
Right, now he’s found U3 to be too low so he’s switched to U6 because it’s larger and makes Obama look bad. But U6 is always almost twice U3. When Reagan was running for reelection with 7.4% unemployment then U6 was about 14%. U6 also counts people working part time for economic reasons though. It’s not “real unemployment” as folks like to say but rather “underemployment.” There’s a difference.
Limbaugh and all his stunted listeners believe that Obama needs the unemployment figure to be at a certain level and he’s just going to fudge the numbers to get us there. They’ll look through any positive job report to find issues to back up this view no matter how loony it is. Kathy, you can be part of this illogical group of naysayers or you can join the reality based community and accept that the economy is actually recovering and we’re not actually headed over a cliff like his critics have been suggesting for years.
The store owner told me that he could use even more service/installer people but can’t find any who are qualified. Granted, it’s hard work with some heavy lifting, but sure beats unemployment. It also requires a good attitude toward the customer, a good driving record, no criminal record and a willingness to work.
“good driving record” and “no criminal record” are probably a lot more difficult to find than “willingness to work”. In my previous experience, I would be lucky to find someone who only drinks habitually and doesn’t take illegal drugs. The “good driving record” is usually gone with either. There are a lot of people very willing to work who can’t get hired because of some bad habits, whether it’s getting high or robbing an occasional liquor store or gas station when the money runs out.
” I predicted”
“You knew what was gonna happen when this year started.”
“You knew that the statistics are that no president has been reelected when the unemployment rate’s over 8%.”
At least Rush viewers knew.
1936-unemployment 16.6% Roosevelt reelected.
1940-unemployment 14.6% Roosevelt reelected.
Anyone who wishes to do so can pick many of Rush Limbaugh’s truths apart.
Rush Limbaugh is not paid to produce the truth. He is paid to produce what his audience wants to believe.
It is about time. Look at the picture of this recession and recovery http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-RQ736_JOBS2_E_20120203090102.jpg
The job loss bottomed out just before Obama took office and jobs went up, as happens in normal recoveries. But instead of continuing to rise, it flattened out and went back down about the time Obama policies took hold.
Obama policies helped keep unemployment a bit lower in 2009 at the expense of the recovery. Had Obama not acted as he did, we would have been a little worse off in 2009 but better off today.
C&J: “Had Obama not acted as he did, we would have been a little worse off in 2009 but better off today.”
What do you base that on again?
“Anyone who wishes to do so can pick many of Rush Limbaugh’s truths apart.”
To pick apart implies you have to be creative and omit or add to what a party said.
In Obama’s case there is no picking apart. You just read it and there it is. One more lie.
If I had the time I would conduct an investigation into Obama and Holder to see which is the liar with the biggest inventory.
For right now they are 50-50.
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself.” —Roman statesman Marcus Tullius Cicero (106-43 BC)
The basic problem is not which percentage is correct. The problem is millions of Americans are out of work. We all know that as a non-arguable fact.
Government has never been successful with a policy that encourages businesses to hire people.
The answer is quite saddling the American with more debt and get out of the way of businesses that will hire when the government stops hindering their effort.
Thousands of pages of laws that prohibit any growth within a compay are responsible for much of the unemplyment.
There are thousands of laws that should be repealed that should not even be on the books. They are either un-anforceable or are un-Constitutional. Both are stops signs on the highway of progress.
I have it much easier. I operate 3 501(c)e organizations. We only have to deal with state government and our mission pretty much allows us to move forward without much government intervention. In all three cases we help people who are in a situation where they have very little resources to get ahead.
Government has the poorest record ever of helping people get ahead. They squander and scam people and waste all of our tax contributions. Most of the Congress people committ crimes in the way they handle tax resources. A fence should be built around all the legislative buildings in WDC and call it the Congressional Department of Corrections.
Please, the chart shows a bottoming at approximately the time Obama took office and when the stimulus was passed with a sharp and continuing reduction of job losses during the implementation phase. Sure, it could be a coincidence. But, it seems, to me, more reasonable to interpret the data as a response to the certainty of a substantial injection of federal stimulus money and impact of that injection of funding.
Your grudging acknowledgment that the stimulus “kept unemployment a bit lower in 2009” is certainly consistent with the data. However, your additional comments that it was at “the expense of the recovery” is without any empirical or logical support.
The shape is like a bell. It started to improve before Obama policies took hold. It then went up and started to create jobs at about the same slope. This is what happened in 1982-5. But then with the Obama doldrums, the rate flattened out.
We can interpret that in any way we think best. I know that recessions end and that they follow this kind of pattern. A sharp drop usually means a sharp recovery. In the Obama recovery, this did not happen.
I don’t know why we failed to thrive after December 2009. We were coming up, but then fell back down, right about the time of the “summer of recovery” when Obama predicted the big surge. Why?
C&J, I doubt that Obama will mind if the Republicans campaign on the premise that the economy would be doing better if Obama had not tried to fix it.
“In Obama’s case there is no picking apart. You just read it and there it is. One more lie.”
See there Tom H., it wasn’t hard for you to make my point. You don’t have to bother to check the facts because you know that everything Obama says is a lie. You know that what you want to believe is true. You don’t have to fact check Limbaugh because you know he tells the truth as you want to believe it to be.
It’s fundamental to the conservative approach to politics, developed and codified by none other than Newt Gingrich in his infamous GOPAC memo. Offering an alternative approach is not enough. No. The opposition must be demonized. Obama must never, ever be given credit if something goes well, and neither should Democrats; instead, they are routinely called “un-American” and “traitors,” and any statistics which contradict the disparagement must be dismissed as fraudulent. And what about those who report the statistics? Any who carry a message that undermines the demonization are merely unreliable members of the liberal media.
One basic problem with this approach is that conservatives find themselves fighting against basic facts. Reality seems to have a progressive bias.
We see this on issue after issue. Unemployment numbers down? Economy looking good? Deny the numbers. Insist it does not look good, and never mind those stock markets and bond markets and the MSM. Global Warming? Evolution? Mere products of conspiracies. Just ‘theories.’ Terry Schiavo… Well, you get the idea.
Let me clear the air for you lefties. Gingrich is not a conservative. He is a big government liberal. That is as nice as I can be.
I am hoping that neither have 1000 delagates going to the convention. Let the convention come forth with a fresh candidate that is conservative and move on.
Phx8, many independents and even some conservatives are catching on to the Republican game plan. Some Republicans are starting to realize that their party would cut taxes on the 1% even if they had to raise the taxes of the other 99% to do it. Half of the Republicans say the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy should be ended.
C&J, I can think of quite a few reasons why. By the end of 2009, the banks were recovering, thanks to the taxpayer bailout. Of course, the banks weren’t interested in cutting home owners any slack in the least. The mortgage crisis accelerated during 2010, and began spilling over into the commercial real estate sector. That had a major impact on consumer confidence.
Then there was the ongoing economic problems in Europe. In 2010 and early 2011, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain took turns temporarily bumping Greece off the top of the bad news column. Most economists said that the European crisis had a negative affect on investor confidence, consumer confidence and on exports.
Together, these problems put a major drag on the recovery throughout 2010 and into 2011.
The fact that the economy has shown improvement in the second half of 2011 and into 2012, with little to no support from a major sector, housing, is a very good sign. Now it looks as if housing is starting to see some improvement and could help with the recovery this summer.
A couple of weeks ago, I read an article which said that rural economies across the country were recovering nicely. I can vouch for this with regards to my local rural economy. Since the middle of 2011, hardly a week has gone by without front page coverage of good economic news. Business expansions, health care expansions, new businesses coming into the area, DOE investment in the local gaseous diffusion plant, road projects starting up, help wanted signs returning to business windows.
Forgot a couple, the Gulf oil spill and the impact that had on the economy of the region. The oil speculators driving up prices as the economy was trying to recover.
Mr. Ducker, you may be overweight too; but that does not give you the right to start off a post with refering to someone as fat and sweaty. It is an insult to all people who suffer being overweight. What you are really saying is since Rush Limbaugh is fat a sweaty, then all conservatives who listen to him are also fat and sweaty. You sir, owe overweight people an apology. You have no possible excuse for talking like this…
Re/ Rush’s statements; I am not an aconomics major, but I do know when numbers are fudged. The House is in the process of reforming Base-Line Budgeting. Base line budgeting is the process of automatically increasing all government spending by 15-20% every year for ALL programs. If the Republicans try to keep spending, on these programs, at current levels, the Democrats imediatly begin to cry foul and claim the Republicans are trying to CUT spending. It is a lie, spending is never cut; only the base line budget increase is cut. It is the same with all numbers that come out of DC. The numbers are always fudged. Raw numbers never equal the claimed numbers. Seasonal adjustments never add up to what is really taking place. First time unemployment claims do not give an accurate picture of those unemployed, only those who apply for the first time each week; and sooner or later this number has to decline because eventually the jobs are cut as far as they can possibly be cut. But how many people are actually drawing unemployement? Perhaps the biggest lie is that unemployment is based upon a certain size work force. But when the actual or base work force numbers are changed, and the unemployed are figured against the changed base, then we come up with a different percentage of people who are unemployed. It’s all done with smoke and mirrors. Ron Paul is no idiot and even he (who has been a Congressman for years) claims what I am saying is true. While the private work force has declined, the Federal work force has increased. These federal employees are doing nothing for the economy except draining tax dollars. Obama spent billions of tax dollars on green energy solar panels, batteries, and Chevy Volts; yet all of this money was wasted and is gone. Solar and battery companies have bankrupt, the Volt is a complete failure; but the unions kept their jobs and pensions, more Federal employees were hired to oversee the governmet takeover of private companies, and Obama’s donors had their pockets lined with tax dollars as payment for fnacially supporting Obama’s election. It totally amazes me that the left would cry Corporate corruption and at the same time give 100% support for political corruption.
I am not a real political person, but I am absolutly fed up he lies and corruption in DC. I voted for Obama because he promised things would be different when he got in office and he lied. Nothing has changed, in fact things are worse. I work to provide for my family, only to find out that politicians and their staffs can invest in stocks through insider trading and it’s legal… Yet if we did it, we would go to prison. We have a government who passed a healthcare system tha is supposed to be so good for us, but they and their staffs are exempt from obamacare. We are forced to pay into a failing SS system which is constantly changeing and will never be their when I am old enough to retire, and yet politicians and governmnt workers are exempt. Where is the fairness that the left loves to talk about? I will not vote for Obama again, I can promise you that.
Kathy, Rush is absolutly correct. The numbers are meant to help Obama and as said below, who should we trust; Gallup, who depends on truth to stay in business, or the BLS, who does the biding of Obama? And Kathy, you are also correct in your assessment of the labor force numbers changing in order to change the % of those unemployed:
“A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that’s not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.”
“Are you going to believe an impartial Gallup, or the BLS whose sole function is to make Obama’s reelection chances easier?”
Kathy: “What you are really saying is since Rush Limbaugh is fat a sweaty, then all conservatives who listen to him are also fat and sweaty. You sir, owe overweight people an apology. You have no possible excuse for talking like this…”
Oh please. That’s a bunch of hog wash and you know it. I won’t apologize for something you simply made up completely.
Kathy: “Re/ Rush’s statements; I am not an aconomics major, but I do know when numbers are fudged.”
You apparently do not. You offer only the word of liars to support your premise. I’d recommend you stop listening to Limbaugh as step #1 on your road to recovery.
Kathy, Billinflorida and anyone else who listens to Limbaugh, Santelli, or that liar at Zero Hedge:
I pointed out in my comment above that a million people did not leave the workforce. You’re being lied to as usual.
Re Gallup numbers:
So here we go again. BLS stops reporting bad news so you have to move on to a different set of data that paints a worse picture? BLS is the source relevant employment data and has been for decades. The truth is though that Gallup has closely mirrored BLS with slight variation due to not seasonally adjusting, off by just a few 10th’s of a percentage point each time. So what’s the big deal? Why is it so hard for you folks to accept that the economy is improving. Nearly every single indicator of economic strength is has improved slowly over the last 2 years but yet you cannot accept that unemployment, a lagging indicator, is now doing the same? Come on.
We can also go by what the CBO said that unemployment will go up before the Nov. elections. At least ton 8.9%.
KAP: Correct. The CBO doesn’t project any significant drop in unemployment until sometime after 2013. That doesn’t mean we won’t grow jobs until 2013 though. Most don’t think this year will be spectacular but it should be better than 2011 by a long shot depending on what happens in Europe for the most part.
Adam, The fact is it is still a bleak picture no matter how much the democrats paint it rosey.
Rich et al
Economies come out of recessions. Government doesn’t lead them all the time. Obama counted on the natural recovery of the economy to justify his massive spending. Unfortunately, his massive spending may have postponed the recovery. We suffered more because of Obama’s policies, not less. And now we owe the bigger bucks.
Re job growth - if we had the kind of growth we enjoyed in the 1980s or 1990s we would not have to worry about unemployment going up.
KAP: How is it bleak? That would seem to imply it’s really bad and we just pretend it’s good. The facts tell the opposite story. It’s really good and you’re pretending it’s bad. But even good is an overstatement. It’s a little less than good but far from bleak. What’s bleak is the chances of the GOP winning the White House on the economy alone.
8%-9% unemployment is bleak Adam. Gas prices up to almost $4.00 a gallon and prices going to rise for other things. No matter how you paint it Adam this economy and job picture is bleak especially where I’m from. Hell Carter lost his second term bid with a 7.8% unemployment rate. So you really think Obama is going to do good with a 8%+ unemployment rate?
Bleak would imply it’s not getting better. I agree unemployment is high but it’s on the decline. Carter lost for many reasons but as far as unemployment goes it was increasing throughout his entire term almost.
Do I think Obama is going to do good with 8%? Well, the Limbaugh message is that it’s a hard value that determines win or lose and that’s foolish. The truth is it’s all about perception. If things feel like they’re getting better because a lot of things are moving in the right direction then Obama could easily win re-election with higher than wanted unemployment. The most important thing is not simply what it is this November but what it was when he took office as well. Unemployment started high, went higher, but then has been on the decline for two years.
Gasoline is not even close to $4.00 a gallon on average except maybe in Hawaii. It could reach $4 in the near future though of course and that would slow our recovery.
KAP: Definition #3 for Bleak: without hope or encouragement; depressing; dreary: a bleak future.
I would argue the economic conditions in the US are the opposite of bleak. That is not to imply the conditions are fine, just that they’re moving in the right direction. They are not without hope or encouragement but actually there is a growing since of optimism and confidence in the economy that even has folks like C&J starting to say “about time!” to the recovery.
Adam, Go ask a guy who has been looking for a job for the last couple of years if his prospects are not bleak. The economy is not growing as it should dispite the massive amounts of money Obama has poured into it. I’m judgeing conditions by my area of this country, jobs are NOT avaliable. Gas prices went up to $3.55 per gallon that is $.45 shy of $4.00 in my city some even higher by a nickle or dime depending on the tax rates in which ever suburb you go to. IMO the 8.3% unemployment figure that was just given out is a might short of the true unemployment figure which is probably a few percentage points higher.
In 2004, this is what the liberal democrats called “Bleak”, 5.4%… Adam, who was accusing the BLS of fudging numbers in 2004? You guys are a joke…
“Barons: Economists say Job Market Far Worse than Data Suggest, Real Unemployment 9.4%
Barons: “[Economists say the 5.4% unemployment] rate is … mathematical sleight of hand. [T]he actual number may be closer to 6.4, 7.2 or 9.4%. The reason the unemployment rate has stayed so low, these economists argue, is not due to improvements in hiring trends. Instead, people are ‘dropping out’ of the labor force. [N]early two million additional unemployed people who are not showing up in the unemployment rate data. ISI Group’s Tom Gallagher noted that ‘if the participation rate was at the older, higher level, then the unemployment rate would be around 7.2%. Even using a 10-year average of participation rate yields a 6.4% unemployment rate.’ If that sounds bad, consider what happens when we add the ‘so-called marginally attached workers and part-timers who really want to be working full time.’ Barron’s Alan Abelson [explained the real] unemployment rate [is] 9.4% [and] ‘we’re now 9.3 million jobs below where we’d be in a ‘normal’ recovery.’”
The numbers don’t account for the people that are making a pretty healthy living from e-bay, and craigs list.
KAP: “Adam, Go ask a guy who has been looking for a job for the last couple of years if his prospects are not bleak.”
I don’t deny there is still pain in the economy for millions of Americans. You just simply can’t call it bleak, or hopeless unless you ignore the vast evidence to the contrary.
KAP: “IMO the 8.3% unemployment figure that was just given out is a might short of the true unemployment figure which is probably a few percentage points higher.”
There are alternative measurements of unemployment and underemployment that are higher than 8.3%, yes. That doesn’t make them “real” or “true” or anything that you want to make it seem fudged.
TomT: “Adam, who was accusing the BLS of fudging numbers in 2004? You guys are a joke…”
Sorry. Wrong is wrong whether there’s a D or an R there.
Adam, I believe people that aren’t blinded by partician BS know that the unemployment rate is higher than 8.3%. Unemployment figures neglect those that have quit looking those that are on the government tit and a few other statisticts that aren’t mentioned when giving the unemployment figures so the true rate is a few percentage points above 8.3%. This is an election year and the people that are up Obama’s butt and giving it lip locks are going to do anything to make him look good.
KAP: 8.3% is based on the traditional means of measuring unemployment based on estimates of the workforce that are revised over time with things like the census data. Again, there are alternative measurements but none that have been used for decades for comparison purposes. If you want to use the largest number you can come up with simply to make Obama look bad then was have to use that same number going back decades and everyone looks worse.
”..but they and their staffs are exempt from obamacare. We are forced to pay into a failing SS system which is constantly changeing and will never be their when I am old enough to retire, and yet politicians and governmnt workers are exempt.”
Both assertions are simply not true.
Congress and the executive branch are subject to the same standards of all US citizens under the ACA. Indeed, they are more restrictive since in 2014, all members of Congress and the executive branch are required to select health insurance off the exchange. Most Americans will not be required to shop on the exchange and can continue with their current employer group coverage. http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2011/12/08/congress-exempted-from-obamacare/
As for the social security allegation, it is complete nonsense. All federal employees, including Congress and their staffs have been required since 1983 to participate in Social Security. http://www.snopes.com/politics/socialsecurity/pensions.asp
Adam, Obama does a good job of making himself look bad. It’s about time the real figures were told not just the feel good figures that the 8.3% represents. You can believe what you want but the real figures are NOT being told.
KAP: “You can believe what you want but the real figures are NOT being told.”
Which figures specifically do you think are not being told?
As I stated in the previous post; in 2004 the liberals were complaining about a 5.4% unemployment rate was bogus and was rally as high as 9.4%. This was Liberal democrats complaining that 5.4% was “Bleak”. If the liberals were crying that real unemployment was 9.4% under Bush; why aren’t they crying that real unemployment is 19% under Obama? The media spent all their time saying how bad 5% unemployement was under Bush and now how good 8.3% is under Obama. As I said, the left is a joke. Trying to make things look good under this stupid SOB and yet 8 years trying to make things look so bad under Bush. You want to see what the left had to say when the unemployemnt was 4-5% under Bush? Just google it; there are plenty of comments. And now the left is OUTRAGED, yes, OUTRAGED I tell you; over the conservative condemnation of Obama. The left asks, why do we hate him, why do we try to make things look worse than they are??? I don’t know, maybe some smart socialist on WB could tell us why the did the same thing under Bush? Why did the left accuse the BLS of fudging the numbers under Bush???
Adam, As TomT said need I say more.
“Why did the left accuse the BLS of fudging the numbers under Bush???”
Would you please provide some specific references to this accusation.
Gee. Let me see. Hmmm. Do you think, TomT, that liberals were so critical of Bush because the economy tanked and unemployment skyrocketed? Just a wild guess. It might have something to do with the country not experiencing any recessions in the previous eight years of the Clinton administration, and then suffering two during the conservative Bush administration. Or maybe it has something to do with the way conservatives took budget surpluses and turned them into perennial deficits. Gosh, what a poser. I dunno. Debt and deficits under Reagan, Bush 41, and Bush. Budget surpluses under Clinton. An improving economy under Obama, with almost two straight years of employment growth. I dunno. This sounds like the media’s fault, doesn’t it?
It’s almost as if progressives have a memory, and recall history before January 2009. Of course, they were “just making things look bad” under Bush, because everything actually went so well, right?
Upon the announcement of Friday’s unemployment numbers, the stock markets reacted to the news by increasing 1.5%, which is the way markets react to good news. Astonishing, I know. Isn’t it amazing the way those clever liberals fool all of the financial markets in the world, with all those analysts and researchers, by simply fudging a few numbers, and ignoring other more important ones. Only sage Rush Limbaugh listeners manage to see through the transparent ploy. Everyone in the whole world is stupid except for American conservatives. Yeah, that must be it.
For anyone with a serious interest in economics, the chart posted on the right hand column speaks volumes, using the most important employment statistic, namely, non-farm payroll.
phx8, your comment about the stock market is ridiculous. The market reacts if someone farts in DC. I don’t think the market is a good reason for claiming the economy is turning around.
Let’s look at a scenario: radical Muslims set off a suitcase nuke in a major American city; what happens to the market? Or say the Iranians shut down the flow of oil in the Straits of Hormuz; what happens to the market? What happens to the market if one or more European countries go bankrupt? Markets go up and down based on world events. Perhaps liberals could explain why they believe Wall Street is the enemy, even though WS supports more democrats than republicans for reelection, and yet want to claim financial success when the WS market goes up?
The left wants to claim prosperous years when Clinton was president, and yet ignore the fact that Republicans controlled the Congress and set the agenda for Clinton to sign. Bush was president for 8 years, in which time we were attacked by Muslim terrorists and Democrats supported F&F who were responsible for the main problem with our economy, the housing market. Then we have 3 1/2 years of Obama and his socialist agenda of redistribution of wealth, the spending of trillions of dollars in stimulus that did nothing but place us further in debt and bailed out the union pension funds, the takeover of private corporations, and of course even after 3 1/2 years, it’s still Bush’s fault. At what point does Obama begin to take responsibility for his own actions? At first it was a joke that Democrats would continue to give Obama a pass and blame Bush; but now it is just sad.
There seems to be a great debate as to whether the CBO numbers are correct or not. The CBO can only make calculations based on information given to them. Here is a good example of false information provided by Democrats to the CBO and to give the results the Democrats wanted:
“Democrats are touting a new CBO report that says if Obamacare is repealed $145 billion would be added to the deficit from 2012 to 2019. What the Democrats aren’t telling you is the the CBO is using the same flawed numbers fed to them by the Democrats to predict the rotten legislation would save Americans money. Philip Klein explains:
“These estimates should come as no surprise, because, aside from a few technical changes and updates, they are based on CBO projections from when the health care care law passed last March. These projections reflected the Democrats’ use of a number of accounting gimmicks, without which, the CBO separately acknowledged the law would actually run up deficits. As Paul Ryan notes, the reality is that the national health care law is a “fiscal train wreck.” The CBO deficit reduction number does not factor in double counting of Medicare savings and other revenue sources, and it doesn’t include $115 billion in costs needed to implement the law.”
Here is another example of CBO numbers that are incorrect; not that the CBO lied, but rather based upon the false rules used by the CBO:
“The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) yesterday reported that the federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2012. That number is troubling enough but the reality is much worse. The United States will actually go about $4 trillion further in debt during the year.
The difference comes from the fact that government accounting procedures simply ignores the cost of benefits being promised for future Social Security and Medicare recipients. While precise estimates vary as to how much these promises cost, they are in the range of $3 trillion annually. It is important to note that the CBO is not to blame for this accounting gimmick. That agency typically does a sound job of operating within the ground rules established by Congress. Unfortunately, the rules often make little sense.
As former CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin explained to Scott Rasmussen, “The debt from the past is a problem, but the future potential debt is a crisis.”
The government does not recognize the debt piling up for future Social Security and Medicare benefits because they have officially determined that no such liability exists.
As explained in the Federal Budget, “The Federal Government uses the term ‘trust fund’ very differently from the private sector. The beneficiary of a private trust owns the trust’s income and may own the trust’s assets.”
However, “the Federal Government owns and manages the assets and earnings of most federal trust funds.” As if that wasn’t enough, the government “can unilaterally change the law to raise or lower future trust fund collections and payments or change the purpose for which collections are used.”
In other words, the money in government trust funds can be diverted to pay for anything the politicians want to spend it on. The government treats all the money as if it’s in a single pot that can be spent on anything according to the whims of Congress.
Only 10 percent of voters favor this approach but the Supreme Court has supported this interpretation and declared that the government has no legal obligation to pay promised benefits…
Rasmussen notes that the actual federal debt is closer to $120 trillion rather than the $16 trillion discussed in Congress.
Another gimmick used by politicians is amazingly simple. As 62 percent of voters recognize, when politicians today say they are cutting spending, they are really talking about nothing more than reducing the growth of spending. The impact of this is staggering.
Using the official definitions, the CBO last year presented estimates of what would happen if Congress lived up to its promise to “cut” federal spending by $2.5 trillion over a decade. If that happened, the CBO showed that actual federal spending would go from $3.6 trillion in 2012 to $5.8 trillion in 2021. Only a politician could consider that a spending cut.”
These last points are the result of Base-Line Budgeting. And both parties have been guilty of providing bad information to the CBO. So is the CBO incorrect…yes, but are they lying…no; they are simply providing “garbage in, garbage out”
I don’t have a problem with folks reporting alternative measurements of unemployment. I just have a problem with people using those measurements to suggest things are not getting better. No one is denying there’s pain the labor markets, that 8.3% unemployment is bad, that the underemployment is horrible, that the number of long term unemployed persons is way too large. But, you use all that information to deny the fact that we have been in recovery for 2 years and we continue to get better every month.
We’ve added back millions of jobs over the last 2 years but we were down 8 million to start with so of course there’s still pain out there. But two million jobs? You’re going to continue to blow that off. See, once you admit to yourselves that things are getting better you lose your strongest talking point against President Obama. I don’t expect you and folks like KAP to give that up your illogical arguments any time soon.
I don’t care who said what under Bush and I don’t see why you want to paint me as a hypocrite for the actions of folks I’ve never met on sites I’ve never read. That’s pretty pathetic on your part. Sooner or later you’re going to have to come around to reality. Yes, things actually are getting better under a man you see only as a foreign born black Muslim socialist or just a SOB.
Adam, Obama was in over his head, personnelly I don’t care if he is white, black, hispanic, muslim, Indian, or whatever, if you don’t know how to do the job don’t apply. Most of the jobs Obama created are GOVERNMENT jobs, he like Bush grew government. Why do we need more government employees don’t we have enough overpaid and over compensated government employees now? You say the recession is easing, that maybe so but NOT like it should. We should have been out of it by now as C&J write. Why would you have a problem with the true facts and numbers? 8.3% is a number that the BLS throws out, what about the people that have run out of benefits we just don’t count them anymore, what about the people who haven’t been on the job long enough to get unemployment. These numbers don’t mean anything. What’s illogicdal is believeing that there is only 8.3% unemployment.
Adam, I believe the point several people are trying n to make is that the numbers are not correct. As BiF says garbage in, garbage out. You accuse us of not accepting a lie that things are getting better, when we say that things are not getting better. The idea that millions of jobs have been created is a figment of your imagination. There are still companies out here in real America that are laying people off. I can name 2 green companies that Obama pumped tax dollars into that have closed their doors. Concerning inflation, I don’t know where you live but where I am the price of gas and diesel is fast approaching $4 a gallon. Higher fuel costs mean higher everything that is shipped. So are we facing inflation? Yes, but, and this is a big BUTT; food and fuel don’t count toward inflation. Another political juggling of numbers; but what is the most expensive necessity that everyday Americans face? You guessed it, food and fuel. So Adam, you can push the liberal talking points of things are getting better all you want, but they’re not.
By the way Adam, I noticed you didn’t argue any of BiF’s points.
“As the Republican primary season has unfolded, the number of Americans who call themselves Democrats has fallen to a record low. Now, 35.9% of Americans consider themselves Republicans while 32.5% are Democrats. Just a couple of months ago, there were slightly more Democrats than Republicans.
Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters regard labor unions as bad for business, while 31% say they’re good for business.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) now believe the country is heading in the right direction. That’s the most positive assessment since May of last year.”
While 64% believe we are headed the wrong direction.
Obama lies. The BLS lies. Liberals lie.
That seems to be the substance of your argument.
Rich, if the shoe fits…..
I don’t know where you’re getting your information, but most of the jobs being created under the Obama administration are private sector jobs. In this most recent report, 50,000 manufacturing jobs were created. That’s fantastic.
One of the biggest drags on the recession come from the lack of creation of jobs in the government sector, especially on the state and municipal level.
The other big drag remains the housing sector. That will remain a drag for a long time. I think it will be a long time before most Americans rap their head around just how bad this recession really has been.
I’m not talking about the silly conspiracy stuff about falsified unemployment statistics, which out of the entire financial world, only conservatives opposed to Obama seemed to have noticed, nor am I talking about commodity-fueled inflation, which just recently came to the notice of those same uninformed conservatives. Most of those wingnuts still think the government is printing money, and that will cause inflation. They completely failed to understand the failure of the financial sector and the credit crunch. No, I’m talking about the meltdown of housing prices, the fallout for the construction industry, and the resulting lack of revenues for states and municipalities.
Well PHX8 maybe the state and local governments are getting the message the feds aren’t. You can’t tell me Obama hasn’t grown the federal government. Those of you that don’t oppose Obama would naturally not see the real numbers and say the ones conservatives see are a hoax because you what a rosey picture for your hero.
There’s no “message” in what has happened to state and local governments. The tax base declined as the economy declined. Property tax revenues declined. At the same time, costs increased as more and more people turned to state and local governments for social services.
Obama has grown the government in just a few areas: VA, Justice, Homeland Security, and Defense. It’s very similar to what happened under the Bush administration. Government grew mainly in three areas: Homeland Security (TSA), Defense, and medical costs, due to the doubling of health care costs in the private sector.
I’d be glad to see the Defense budget cut. The Obama administration favors this. Romney opposes it.
It’s very simple. If you want to see government stop growing, support Obama. If you want to see government continue to grow, support Romney.
TomT: “The idea that millions of jobs have been created is a figment of your imagination.”
You mean the fact? You call it an idea as if I’m considering the possibility that jobs were created. The fact is 3.130 million new jobs have been added in the last 24 months.
“I don’t know where you live but where I am the price of gas and diesel is fast approaching $4 a gallon.”
For the record I bought about 12 gallons of regular this morning for $3.18 in Rogers Arkansas.
“So Adam, you can push the liberal talking points of things are getting better all you want, but they’re not.”
I showed you a dozen or more economic indicators that show the economy has improved considerably since Obama took office. For every bad thing you list (debt, inflation, etc.) I will list you 3 or 4 things that are better now. We are getting better but just keep your head in the sand for now.
“By the way Adam, I noticed you didn’t argue any of BiF’s points.”
I didn’t see points relevant to what I felt like discussing but I’ll look it over and see if I have an opinion.
Adam I bought 10 galoons friday for $3.55. in Northern Ohio so what’s your point. I can go down to my daughters in W.V. and pay about $0.03 less or go to N.Y and pay $3.80.
Latest polls have Obama ahead of Romney 51-45 and that’s after the Nevada Primary. Also, he’s at 50% approval and job performance. Romney is winning primaries but with low turnout which is a really bad sign for him. He got several thousand fewer votes in Nevada than he did 4 years ago. He doesn’t excite anyone and hasn’t faced anyone with a lot of money like he will when the general election gets started. The “I hate Obama” vote is only going to take him so far. Those are the 35% or so that wouldn’t vote for him no matter what. That ain’t gonna get him a seat in the oval office. All he can hope for is the economy to start backsliding. The GOP is already doing all they can to stymie the economic recovery I don’t think they can do much more harm than they have. Maybe they can hope for Greece to totally collapse and tank the European economy. Romney has also said enough really stupid things that will give Obama plenty of fodder for attack ads that he has probably already sank his chances.
Better luck next time … well, maybe not :)
The price of gas in FL is $3.55 gal, up 20 cents in a week.
Gas differs area to area of course. My point is that the national average is well, well below $4.00. But a bigger point is that so what if gas goes up? If you have a broken watch does that mean all watches everywhere are broken? No. So why is it one or two economic indicators make it so that you guys call our situation hopeless despite dozens of positive signs the economy is well on it’s way to a final recovery.
Oil prices are down but gas prices go up. We are headed to $4.00+ by summer. Don’t you think that will impact the way people spend and hurt the small positives that you say have happened, Adam. People travel less which hurts the tourist industry, food prices go up other items go up.
KAP: I have no doubt gas prices impact the economy and slow the recovery. The question is will gas prices turn the tide? Not at the current rate. It would take a combination of a few shocks like a crisis in Europe, some showdown in the US over debt that erodes confidence in the markets, high gas prices, some problem with Iran, etc. Just saying gas goes up is not enough to suggest things are bleak. Gas always goes up.
When was the last time gas was over $4.00 per gallon in your town. Like I said gas was up over a quarter this past weekend to $3.55 per gal. When they go up over $4.00 then come and tell us the same thing Adam especially when you want to get away this summer.
“KAP: I have no doubt gas prices impact the economy and slow the recovery. The question is will gas prices turn the tide? Not at the current rate. It would take a combination of a few shocks like a crisis in Europe, some showdown in the US over debt that erodes confidence in the markets, high gas prices, some problem with Iran, etc. Just saying gas goes up is not enough to suggest things are bleak. Gas always goes up.”
Posted by: Adam Ducker at February 6, 2012 8:07 PM
Every one of your scenarios is likely to happen within the next few months, it is for certain that at least one will happen; and what do you think will happen then to Obama’s perfect little world of recovery?
We’ll just have to re-evaluate the economy then and see in the case of any of those events. My guess is you won’t get the shocks you practically hope will happen and that the economy will strengthen President Obama instead of weaken him.
KAP: “When was the last time gas was over $4.00 per gallon in your town.”
Not sure. If not early in 2011 then probably sometime in 2007.
“When they go up over $4.00 then come and tell us the same thing Adam especially when you want to get away this summer.”
I’m confused. What is it you want me tell you once gas is $4.00 a gallon in the future?
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