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Solid South Carolina Win Gives Florida Bounce For Gingrich

Call him the new Comeback Kid. There’s a sort of irony to that. Gingrich’s surge and victory in South Carolina has now translated to a surge in Florida. Mitt Romney must be scared to death at this point.

Two polls have come out since South Carolina and they both show Gingrich way ahead now in Florida by 8% and 9%. The vote in Florida is just 8 days away. Newt will spend that whole time pretending to be the nominee and asking that Mitt Romney respect the process and drop out now and get behind President Newt. OK, so maybe he won't go that far, but he does have the ego for just that sort of thing. I digress.

What we have seen in the last week has been an intense erosion of faith in Mitt Romney as the presumptive nominee. It's now a wide open race and in fact Gingrich leads in delegates. Who would have guessed that a race going through cycles of up and down support for candidates would continue doing so even during the voting? I didn't. I figured it would settle down a bit and not be very interesting.

Last week some were saying Romney would sweep all three of the first primaries. Now we know he lost Iowa and blew it big time in South Carolina. Now he could lose Florida too. Could Newt be the new favorite? Maybe. Could President Obama get that lucky? I don't know. Am I starting to sound like Donald Rumsfeld? Yes, I am, and I'm sorry.

One of the biggest mistakes I've made in the primary prediction business this time around was to openly mock Newt Gingrich to my friends when he suggested it would eventually come down to he and Mitt Romney in the race. I laughed big time. But can you blame me for laughing? That was close to the time Newt's whole campaign quit on him while he was off on a cruise with his third wife.

Mitt Romney has one week to restore supporter faith in his ability to move forward. If not then Newt could come out of January feeling like he's got major momentum. I'll drink to that. Newt will need a major upset though for momentum. If he barely wins or barely loses then it really could be a long race.

Let me just add for the record, anyone on the right thinking the left is scared of Newt Gingrich hasn't caught on to how unpopular Gingrich is in America or seen the head to head matchup. I can't speak for the whole left but let me just ensure you now that I would LOVE to see Obama run against Newt Gingrich.

Posted by Adam Ducker at January 23, 2012 9:45 AM
Comments
Comment #334967

“What we have seen in the last week has been an intense erosion of faith in Mitt Romney as the presumptive nominee.”

Correct if I am wrong, but I don’t think support for Romney has been above 30% in any poll since he first threw his hat in the ring.

Question: would you rather Obama run against Romney of Gingrich?

If Romney (which I am assuming you will say), then why all the outrage, by the left, over Gingrich?

Posted by: TomT at January 23, 2012 10:35 AM
Comment #334969

TomT:

“Correct if I am wrong, but I don’t think support for Romney has been above 30% in any poll since he first threw his hat in the ring.”

After New Hampshire people were talking about Romney wrapping things up quickly. Then came the news he’d lost Iowa, then came the Gingrich surge and Romney lost South Carolina. Here’s what Gallop is saying:

Mitt Romney is a considerably weaker front-runner among Republican registered voters nationally than he was at the beginning of the week. Romney now leads Newt Gingrich by 30% to 20%, with Rick Santorum and Ron Paul tied at 13%. At the beginning of the week, Romney had a 23-percentage-point lead over Gingrich and Santorum.

That was three days ago before South Carolina. Expect the news to be even worse early this week for Romney’s national support.

“Question: would you rather Obama run against Romney of Gingrich?”

I would prefer Gingrich. Romney can actually beat Obama. Gingrich is more likely to help Obama win in a landslide. Why all the outrage? Because Gingrich is a snake of a man. He’s a bully and hypocrite. He reveals how little the right values ethics and morality when it comes to beating President Obama. At first I thought the right was doing the right thing by giving him a test drive but ultimately not pushing the button for him at the polls. Looks like South Carolina and Florida are willing to give him a chance.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at January 23, 2012 11:00 AM
Comment #334971

Adam, do you have any idea how kerry, the original Romney, did with independents when he ran for President?
Just curious, thanks.

Posted by: kctim at January 23, 2012 11:05 AM
Comment #334973

I am so glad the circus has left for Florida. I must have been surveyed a dozen times and robo called about 100 more times last week. South Carolina has returned to its regular broadcast schedule…

That said it really was an interesting couple of weeks. What I learned is that Romney isn’t a very good politician. He stumbles when you ask him questions and his now famous nervous laugh is annoying. In contrast Newt has his gig down. He’s all about tapping in to the anger over the current administration, anger over the economy, and yes even anger over the press. In SC he also used the anger over our current Governor to his advantage, and there are a lot of people on the Romney side partly blaming Nikki Haley for the late turn.

In the end I would much rather go see a Newt event over a Romney event, and that’s probably how the tide got turned last week. I’d also probably rather listen to one of Obama’s speeches over both of them; no doubt Obama will be a better candidate in the general. But I think I’d rather work for a guy like Romney as he seems like the more capable leader for any organization. His only problem is that unless he improves on being a candidate he won’t get the job.

Posted by: George at January 23, 2012 11:19 AM
Comment #334974

Kctim:

If CNN exit polls are to be believed he split the independents with President Bush getting 49% to Bush’s 48%.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at January 23, 2012 11:19 AM
Comment #334976

Thanks Adam. I don’t think Gingrich comes close to that. kerry part 2 doesn’t enthuse the right to show up and vote.
Barring something crazy, The obama has it in the bag.

Posted by: kctim at January 23, 2012 11:38 AM
Comment #334984

Adam Ducker, so we are in agreement, Romney has never had more than 30% of the republican support.

Now, I want you to explain a little further; if you would rather Gingrich run against Obama, why is the left so upset that conservatives would support Gingrich? Your answers don’t make any sense. If Romney s the only one who could beat Obama, why would the left want conservatives to nominate Romney?

Gingrich didn’t just win with conservatives, he won with seniors, women, working class and so on. The only SC voters who really supported Romney was those making more than $300k.

Today, Rush Limbaugh has had a very interesting annalysis of what is going on in the primary. The Republican establishment and the Democratic Party are scared to death of a Gingrich nomination. On Sunday, every single republican and democrat talking head said the Republicans have no chance of beating Obama or gaining the Senate. The problem is, the American people don’t agree with any of this. Christy supported Romney, McCain supported Romney, the Republican Party supports Romney, evangelical religious leaders support Romney; but conservatives don’t. And it appears FL is going the same way.

Posted by: TomT at January 23, 2012 1:26 PM
Comment #334987

TomT: “Adam Ducker, so we are in agreement, Romney has never had more than 30% of the republican support.”

No, I don’t agree with that. Fox News for instance polled him at 40% about 10 days ago. I agree though that generally his average support has been below 30% but he was around 33% overage before the Gingrich surge or Romney decline.

“If Romney s the only one who could beat Obama, why would the left want conservatives to nominate Romney?”

Does the left want that though? I have reported that I think Romney will win the nomination but that’s not to suggest I want that.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at January 23, 2012 2:42 PM
Comment #335001

TomT: Here’s Gallup with updates:

Romney held a 23-point lead over Gingrich as recently as Jan. 11-15. Thus, in a matter of one week, Republicans who are registered to vote have shifted their support substantially — with Romney dropping 8 points and Gingrich gaining 14 points.

His high point was 37%.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at January 23, 2012 6:57 PM
Comment #335021

If anything TomT, the Democrats want both Romney and Gingrich badly damaged before the election. These attacks aren’t things that will go away completely with time like some attacks can be. These kind of attacks against Romney and Gingrich are things that strike at the core of their character and try to reveal flaws that the public won’t soon forget. Whether that works is a different question.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at January 24, 2012 8:35 AM
Comment #335022

Your incorrect AD, whatever comes out of these debates will be old news by the time Obama tries to use them again. Romney’s money and PACs have tried their best to bloody Gingrich and yet, as we see from the SC primary, the Republican voters don’t care. There comes a time when the BS don’t matter any more. On the other hand, Gingrich has a plethora of material he can use against Obama. Obama’s 3 1/2 year record…

Posted by: TomT at January 24, 2012 9:06 AM
Comment #335025

TomT: Things have a habit of sticking these days. Gingrich isn’t running for president of his angry conservative base. He won’t be able to rile up the whole country by playing the victim card like he did in South Carolina. The country as a hole can’t stand him and that matters. That’s why I think the establishment Republicans will crush him before it’s too late. Newt Gingrich versus Obama is just too good to be true.

What you and others think is apparently that it will be Gingrich alone versus Obama but what it will be is Gingrich and President Bush versus Obama. No matter how much you try to make it seem like bad leadership for Obama to remind people about Bush, the majority of the public still understands the problems Obama has been faced with are not his own and he’s done better than expected.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at January 24, 2012 9:46 AM
Comment #335068

Favorability ratings for Newt and Willard don’t look too strong nationally:

Newt

Willard

Willard’s released his tax returns today, and the fact that his rate turns out to be only 13.9 — less than most middle class Americans. That could be very damaging.

Quote from the link:

—Romney raked in America’s median adjusted gross income of $33,048 in “less than a day,” Bloomberg notes. His income over a one-week span puts him in the top 1 percent of annual earners.

Actually Willard’s not just the 1%, his income actually puts him in the top 0.006 percent.

Also it has just come out that he has been an investor in both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae — I don’t imagine that’s going to go over too well with the GOP.

Posted by: Adrienne at January 24, 2012 8:27 PM
Comment #335078

“the majority of the public still understands the problems Obama has been faced with are not his own…”

Adam, by that logic, I guess we can count on hussein having a Republican House and Senate to work with after the next election.

Posted by: kctim at January 25, 2012 11:18 AM
Comment #335126

Amen, George!!!!

Posted by: Highlandangel1 at January 26, 2012 11:18 AM
Comment #335144

The Problem for the Republicans, as I see it, is that they’re trying to have things both ways. They want a figure that can appeal to most voters, sure, that can beat Obama. At the same time, though, they’re up in arms at what they see as the political impurity of the politicians, having been steeped for years in the idea that conservative politics is existentially important for the country.

As a result, they’ve put themselves in a position where they’re either stuck with Romney, whose entire race has been making him second choice to everybody else in the primaries, or Gingrich, who has solid majority negatives, for all his appeal to Republican voters.

Their trouble, is that to have gotten a candidate who was a better fusion of both, they would have had to tolerate compromise on the candidate’s part towards a population that’s moved somewhat away from the Right, while the Right’s moved the other way.

I think the situation indicates that Republicans have lost their willingness to work with the mainstream, politically. My feeling is that it’s only so long before the emotional appeals they use start to fall on deaf ears.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at January 26, 2012 4:38 PM
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