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If Mitt, Herman, or Newt Can't, Maybe Ron Can

From a Bloomberg Poll released late Monday: Four Republican presidential candidates are currently in a statistical dead heat in Iowa just seven weeks before the caucus date. That Romney, Cain and Gingrich are now locked into a tight Iowa race is no shocker. I was pretty surprised to see Ron Paul up there with the rest.

The news:

Businessman Herman Cain (20 percent), Texas Rep. Ron Paul (19 percent), former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (18 percent) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (17 percent) are statistically tied for the top slot in the state that will hold the first caucuses in the nation on Jan. 3.

The last set of Iowa polls showed Paul and Gingrich surging already and Cain and Romney in decline. Those trends have continued with the latest polling.

Things have been fairly steady for Romney in Hew Hampshire so it will be interesting to see how things shake up there next time there's polling done.

Over in South Carolina Cain has been leading for some time but both Cain and Romney are in decline while Gingrich has surged a little. I wonder if there will be a similar Ron Paul surge there or not. I don't know enough about the demographics in these regions to understand or predict how things will go. It's interesting, nonetheless.

I for one am very excited to see this voting start. We're just a few weeks away from Iowa and then things are going to get really crazy from there on out. It should worry conservatives a little that Obama is still mopping the floor with every candidate but Romney but Romney is the one candidate that so many people are praying to Jesus won't win the nomination. These early head to head polls don't mean much though since a large chunk of voters vote party line anyway no matter who wins.

Also as a last minute addition to this post I just found something that caught me off guard. Has anyone noticed the Generic Congressional Vote lately? This is not getting much attention in the media because everyone is talking about Presidential politics but take a look at that gap between the Blues and the Reds. Anyone think it's a coincidence that the Democrats began to surge and the GOP continue to decline just about the time Obama started publicly skewering Republicans in Congress for not working to create American jobs? Something to think about at least.

Posted by Adam Ducker at November 15, 2011 10:34 AM
Comments
Comment #332041

Republicans want to believe that people acted out of recognition of a mistake, rather than at anger at being denied what they wanted. Funny enough, really, since part of the point of their obstruction was to starve the Democrats of achievements. The trick is, they may have undermined the political strength of Democrats, but they haven’t reinforced their own, in the process, and people are beginning to acknowledge something the Republicans might not want them to: that the GOP is trying to wait out people’s desire to change the status quo, rather than do something about all the troubles that have them angry, feeling betrayed at the establishment’s behavior.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at November 15, 2011 3:40 PM
Comment #332056


Adam, I think Gingrich might have to stumble for Paul to replace him as runner up. I think Bachmann is totally out of the race, but Perry can still make a come back.

Stephen, do you really think the Democrats would deliver on a significant change in the status quo if it weren’t for the Republicans? I don’t and I think the evidence supports that assessment. When Obama and the Democrats return the corporate cash, there may be some hope of altering the status quo in a significant way. The union money as well because some of the large unions have become supporting actors in the maintenance of the status quo.

One add for the Democrats. We Democrats intend to change the status quo to make it more beneficial to the people as a whole. To do this, we felt it was necessary to not accept contributions from corporations, unions and other special interest groups. We need your votes.

If they are not prepared to do that then they are just BSing you. It’s the money, not the Republicans.

The people are looking for a president that will kick the shit right out of Congress, at least rhetorically. Unfortunately, it is now impossible for someone that has not been bought to obtain that high office.

Change you can believe in. Yeah, right.

No back room deals with corporations. Yeah, right.

Open government, less secrecy. Yeah, right.

As far as I am concerned, what I said about Obama during his bid for the nomination has been confirmed by his actions.

Another sign that might attract my attention, every incumbent Democrat faces a primary challenger.

Are you going to fall for the old, where not Republicans so vote for us routine again? I’ve been there done that but no more. There has been more than enough evidence compiled to convince me that the Democrats are anything but sincere with their constituents. Like the Republicans, the Democrats want our votes without any obligation to represent us.

Posted by: jlw at November 15, 2011 7:03 PM
Comment #332059

Stephen

The Democrats achieved lots of things in their first two years. They pushed through an unpopular health care plan, and over stimulated the economy in their own way. Obama got two supreme court nominees confirmed and generally got his way with many things.

The problem was not that Democrats were starved of achievements; it is that the things they achieved were often the wrong things or done the wrong way.

Posted by: C&J at November 15, 2011 7:56 PM
Comment #332069

“I think Bachmann is totally out of the race, but Perry can still make a come back.”

I completely agree about Perry. In fact it may not qualify as a “comeback” since he’s only down in the polls not no votes are cast. Perry is still among the top in fund raising with Mitt Romney. I’m sure we’ll see some surging from Cain and Newt but I would be surprised to see Perry’s cash flow changed by his recent stumbles.

Here is the breakdown of what the 2012 republican candidates raised in the third quarter of 2011:

Rick Perry: $17.2 million Mitt Romney: $14.2 million Ron Paul: $8.3 million Jon Huntsman: $4.5 million Michele Bachmann: $3.9 million Herman Cain: $2.8 million Newt Gingrich: $807,962 Gary Johnson: $236,193

Given the 24 hour coverage of this primary and the 10,000 debates I wouldn’t be surprised to see the polls in the early primaries being meaningless. At this point all that matters is Iowa because the winner there automatically effects the winner of New Hampshire.

I think on resources alone you have to figure Perry is still in this thing bigtime.

Posted by: Adam Ducker at November 16, 2011 8:29 AM
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