Rudy's Punches Fail to Land
Republicans obviously had fun watching Rudy Giuliani try to link Hillary Clinton to a MoveOn.org ad she had nothing to do with. While he may have raised his stock a bit with conservatives, there is no evidence that he hurt his target.
I have warned before that is too early to use polls to predict the outcome of the 2008 election. What they do show, however, is the current state of mind of potential voters. Consider this ABC/WaPo poll taken from 9/27 to 9/30, when the public should have been well aware of the MoveOn controversy:
"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?"
Rudy Giuliani 43%
Hillary Clinton 51%
Won’t vote 2%
Clinton has an 8% lead, compared to a 2% lead in the same poll in January.
Now I know what the Hillary-bashers are thinking – she can’t win because too many people have already decided not to vote for her. In fact, 41% of those polled said they “definitely would not” vote for her. 45% of voters, however, said they “definitely would not” vote for Rudy Giuliani! And Giuliani actually does better than the other Republicans. 57% of respondents had ruled out Mitt Romney. (It’s OK, Mittens. You can always run for President of France.)
If you don’t trust the so-called liberal media, a recent Fox News poll (9/25-9/26) shows Clinton with a 7% lead over Giuliani. You can find some polls that show a closer race (see here), but you would have to look at polls taken before the MoveOn ad.
I have criticized Hillary Clinton before, particularly for her Iraq vote. She is not an ideal candidate. (Who is?) The Republicans may yet find a way to undermine her support, but so far they have failed.
Posted by Woody Mena at October 8, 2007 7:57 AM
This reminds me of someone… Oh yeah, her husband!
At this stage in the political cycle, you’d have better odds picking a winning lottery ticket than the winner of the 2008 presidential race.
The only accurate poll is the one in Nov. 2008.
Hillary is the Democratic nominee. I think that was decided in 2002 or so when she agreed not to run in ‘04…..
Rudy’s “intended target” is not to lower Hillary’s numbers but to increase his numbers against the other GOP candidates. His strategy is to sell “electability” and being the best candidate to take on Clinton in the General. Kinda like Mr. Reporting for Duty did (successfully) in ‘04.
So does his performance here convince you that he is the best person to take on Clinton?
“While he may have raised his stock a bit with conservatives…”
Nuff said… he is not yet taking on Hillary, but rather Thompson, McCain, and the gang.
To use your analogy, his punches don’t have to land yet… as long as the conservatives see him throwing them.
But doesn’t that mean conservatives are pretty gullible? Why would they be impressed by ineffectual attacks?
Its not over till the fat lady sings. Maybe for the primary a somewhat plump lady will do. Edwards is a better candidate,largely because he would be a better president,plus fewer negatives and the very simple fact he actually believes what he is saying. My union(Carpenters) endorsed him based on extensive interviews with all Dem candidates. When HC was asked about problems with NAFTA she agreed to “take it under advizement”. When Edwards was presented the same question he said,”Scrap it and start over”.He has a real commitment to helping and expanding the middle-class. If you like NAFTA then by all means vote for HC. Personally I am reminded of what Truman said,”If a Republican is running against a Republican, the Republican will win every time.”
As to Edwards 400$ haircut. Tiks me off that anyone would pay that much. Rich people are wierd. Think back. Years ago there was another rich guy running as a populist. He had two mansions. His hobby was yacting,about the most elitist thing going. He won. That would be FDR. Edwards has the same air and he deserves our support.
I like Hillary, I like Edawards, I like O’Bama. Seriously - all of em.
Can’t stand anyone on the Republican side.
Woody… it doesn’t mean they’re gullible… at least not anymore than the liberals who believe Hill when she says we’ll get out of Iraq… Other than vague references, has she actually come up with a plan? Nope… but she sure loves to bash Bush on Iraq policy (rightfully so, IMO… just transparent on her part is all) and the liberals eat it up… What’s your plan, Hillary?
I once told both a conservative and a liberal that the word “gullible” isn’t in the dictionary… they both took it as an opportunity to decry the other as evil and to vow that they were the only one to fix it…
I got a chance to listen to Guiliani speak on C-Span before the Americans for Prosperity organization. WOW! The man has a way of entertaining his audience with humor and abject lack of logical reasoning or factual information. He seemed to please this particular audience, but, before the general American public, my take is, he will be received as a person not to be trusted. A person who would stab a friend in the back if it would get him what he wants. Just my impression.
It is the first time I have ever heard the man speak at length. I was impressed by his metaphors and humor. And thoroughly discouraged by his way over generalizations and lack of specifics, like “control spending and cut taxes”. What spending going to what people?, how much?, and cutting taxes for whom? Well, at least he was specific about getting rid of the estate taxes so the wealthiest families in America could be assured of becoming ever more wealthy, generation after generation, and never have to work for it. Glad he cleared that up for me.
Listening to other pundits and talking heads speak about him, I was beginning to wonder if he might actually be a viable choice. But, when he talked about the free unregulated marketplace being the salvation for all Americans, he put to rest my wondering if I might be persuaded to vote for him. Guiliani, the man who would be Bush W. with more social liberality to excuse his failures in marriage and commitments.
I have to wonder how many paternity suits he avoided by paying for the girl friend’s abortions? Principle or convenience? Guiliani strikes me as a person dependent upon convenience. How convenient 9/11 was for him, eh, to launch a presidential bid from? The guy strikes me as a talented opportunist.
Woody Mena - I firmly believe that 2008 will be
the year of the silent majority. The
Democrats an Republicans along with the Independents
will vote for the most Honesty, an Character of a
single candidate. Maybe Edwards or Romney, at any
rate, we must have Integrity returned to all branches of Government. In the event people believe
history is doomed to repeat itself, an let our
present Gov. prevail, shame on those who are too
proud an Ignorant who believe all is well an good.!
Is it working for Rudy? Time will tell. He certainly isn’t going to run in the GOP South on family values, gun rights, or his abortion stance. Electability and a strong leader are his best chance to survive the earlier primary states like SC and make it to the larger markets (CA, NY, MI, etc) where his negatives aren’t as high.
I still feel like it won’t matter much; I think Hillary has the whole thing locked up. There would have to be an “October surprise” hanging out there, and Hillary is too careful and has been planning this for too long to not have covered all of those bases.
And I will continue to honor my promise to vote for her.
Hillary does not have it locked up. The potential for a tag team match between Obama and Edwards against Clinton and Clinton becomes ever more likely as polls strengthen for Hillary going into the Primaries. I am hopeful for such a tag team blitz by Edwards and Obama in late Nov. and Dec., that could knock Hillary on her keister by January.
Hillary is too cagey, playing her cards too close to her vest, and revealing FAR too little detail and topics regarding what she will actually do in office. If Obama and Edwards hammer her on subjects like eliminating deficits while preserving entitlement safety nets, border security as national security, spiraling health care inflation, and getting out of Iraq, they will force her to tip her hand and appear inadequate to these tasks.
For Release 9 a.m. EDT
October 03, 2007
Voters Only Care About Giuliani, Clinton and Obama
Leading Emotional Response Polling Used to Predict Candidate Viability
GAINESVILLE, FL — October 3, 2007 — More voters feel that former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is the “hottest” presidential candidate, according to a new type of non-verbal poll conducted by the leading company for predicting consumer behavior based on “Emotional Temperature.” Only Giuliani, Sen. Hilary Clinton and Sen. Barak Obama arouse enough visceral excitement in voters to sustain them through the long primary process, concludes the SenseUS™ poll conducted by AdSAM® and Itracks, conducted September 15-21, 2007.
“Our poll correctly shows how intensely voters feel about each candidate, both positively and negatively,” said Jon Morris, PhD, president of AdSAM® and professor of advertising at the University of Florida. “Giuliani leads all candidates in terms of Emotional Strength, which is most important now to the GOP as only 31% of Republican voters are enthusiastic or excited about their party”
Proven Method for Disproving Conventional Wisdom
The viability of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is called into question by the poll. Although he performs strongly in many traditional preference polls, 56% of Republicans feel “ambivalent” or “uninterested/unexcited” about him.
“To sustain a long campaign, a candidate must inspire strong feelings in voters,” Morris said. “In addition to Giuliani, Obama and Clinton, the only other candidates to register positive Emotional Temperature were Sen. John McCain and former senators Fred Thompson and John Edwards.”
The SenseUs™ candidate poll used the same AdSAM® methodology the company employed in 2006 to prove that ads that use sexy models in national women’s magazines are not compelling or effective at motivating female readers to buy. To measure the Emotional Response the participants were asked “How does (name of each candidate)make you feel? . The participants were then shown three rows of manikins – an icon-like figure - that represented their emotional reaction. Then they were asked to select one on each row. The first group of manikins represented pleasure, the second arousal or engagement, and the third control or dominance.
What Most Polls Miss
According to Dr. Morris, most polls focus heavily on rationale measures, which only reveal half the story, as every human response is a combination of rational and emotional processing. Previously, the AdSAM® method has been used in over 600 proprietary studies worldwide and incorporated into research of many FORTUNE 500 companies.
AdSAM® specializes in Emotional Response measurement. The cross cultural technique has been used in over 26 countries in communications, marketing and other research.
Itracks is a leading provider of data collection for market research. Information on the company and industry trend summaries are at www.itracks.com and www.itracksnews.com.
For a copy of the Executive Summary of the SenseUs poll please contact Conrad Morris at (800) 563-8654 or email email@example.com
CONTACT: Conrad Morris, (800) 563-8654, firstname.lastname@example.org
SenseUs™ POLL SHOWS DEMOCARTIC CANDIDATES NEED TO FOCUS ON PARTY IDEALS; REPUBLICANS NEED TO EMPHASIZE THEIR OWN STRENGTHS OVER PARTY LOYALTY
Gainesville, FL – According to the unique SenseUS™ Emotional Response Polling, which measures the emotional connection between potential voters and presidential candidates, Democratic presidential candidates trailing behind Hillary Clinton need to aim for the party’s traditional ideals, while Republican candidates need to convert Rudy Giuliani’s emotional electorate. Without taking these steps, the trailing candidates will become non-factors in the race.
In order to raise their Emotional Strength™ and thereby their Emotional Temperature™ over their competition, trailing Democratic candidates need to focus their strategy on the party ideals, and make the public understand that they are the best match to those ideals. The Emotional Strength™ is a determination of satisfaction and intensity and the Emotional Temperature™ is an index of strength where the average is 100.
The survey, conducted by AdSAM®, and Itracks, indicates that while Clinton’s lead over the other Democratic contenders continues to widen, the vast majority of Democrats feel much stronger about their party than they do about any one candidate. For Clinton to strengthen her lead, or others to gain on her, democratic candidates need to align themselves more toward Democratic ideals.
According to the survey’s, Clinton’s Emotional Temperature is 148, and the party is at 159. That brings into question the strength of any candidate – including Clinton. The survey suggests that Democrats will vote for their candidate no matter who it is.
On the Republican side, it appears to be Giuliani’s race to lose. He ranks higher than the party, with John McCain and Fred Thompson as the only other candidates who come close to his numbers or the party’s. McCain and Thompson can raise their Emotional Strength and Temperature by convincing the voters believe that they have all of the strengths of Giuliani and few if any of the weaknesses. They also need to emphasize their positive attributes.
Republicans appear to love Giuliani. While they support both Thompson and McCain, their level of support based on feelings is well below Giuliani. As far as the index goes on the Republican side, Giuliani reaches 151, and the Republican Party comes in at 145. Thompson’s temperature is 127, and McCain is farther back and just above average at 102. For either of them to contend, according to the polling data, they would have to gain significant emotional ground on Giuliani.
“Our poll correctly shows how intensely voters feel about each candidate, both positively and negatively,” said Jon Morris, PhD, president of AdSAM® and professor of advertising at the University of Florida. “People say one thing to political pollsters, but when they vote, they often do that based on how they feel.”
Full results and analysis of the survey are posted at www.SenseUS.net.
AdSAM® specializes in Emotional Response measurement. The cross cultural technique has been used in over 26 countries in communications, marketing and other research. Itracks is a leading provider of data collection for market research. Information about AdSAM® can be found at www.adsam.com. Information on the Itracks is at www.itracks.com.