March 22, 2007
Global Warming and the Stock Market
Al Gore came to Washington and told Congress that global warming is “the most dangerous crisis we have ever faced,” and that the legislators should immediately freeze current carbon emissions (and several other recommendations). Gore got a great welcome - except from a few Republicans, who were either dreamers, skeptics or optimists.
Gore was bringing to Congress the words of scientists. The New York Times reports that the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change states:
In a bleak and powerful assessment of the future of the planet, the leading international network of climate change scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is "unequivocal" and that human activity is the main driver, "very likely" causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950.
This is the culmination of many reports from scientists telling us in no uncertain terms that man-made global warming is building and will cause havoc to the environment of the Earth.
The Dreamer
After so many years of talk about global warming, some doubters are using the term "climate change." We even got the head of ExxonMobil to admit there is such a thing as "climate change." But this is no switch at all. Ever since the Earth was born there has been "climate change." This is the nature of climate: it changes constantly.
Let's compare a dreamer's attitude with the attitude of a stock market investor in the year of 1929. Normal people would say "there has been a stock market crash." A dreamer would say "there's been a stock market change." You bet there has been a change: it crashed.
Similarly, with the current crisis. Dreamers should wake up and see that indeed there has been "climate change." The entire Earth is warming. And the warming is dangerous to our future. And the warming is caused mainly by human use of fossil fuels. And we must act now to reduce its effects.
The Skeptic
We have people like Senator James Inhofe who ridicule Al Gore and claim that the whole global warming business is a hoax. They claim that scientists are not 100% sure, that it has not been proven completely, that there are areas of doubt.
OK, let's go along and say there is doubt. There always is doubt about the future. Nobody can be sure about what may happen tomorrow. Again, let's go back to the stock market. Assume that you invested $10,000 in the stock market and you did extremely well: after a few years your stocks grew to be worth $1,000,000. Wonderful. Then your holdings began to decrease in value, to $900,000, to $800,000, to $700,000 and to $600,000. At this point the majority of economists say that they are pretty sure we may have a stock market crash soon.
If there were a crash, your holdings would be worth less than when you started. Would you get out of the stock market? You have no guarantee that there will be a crash. But if you have any prudence at all you will get out of the stock market fast - if you haven't already left.
We have a similar situation with reference to global warming. There are doubts. However, if the scientists of the world are correct, the environment of the world will crash. Not merely energy industries, as some skeptics worry, but living conditions all over the planet. Under such circumstances, no prudent person can do nothing.
The Optimist
The optimist says that of course there is global warming, but we are so inventive that we are sure to find a way to counteract it. We have licked other natural forces before and we can do it again.
Maybe we can and maybe not. Today we do not know. We do know, however, that if we do not recognize a problem, nobody will try to fix it. Al Gore has not only defined the problem, but offered recommendations for fixing it. He wants to freeze carbon dioxide emissions immediately. (He has made other recommendations that I will discuss in the future.)
Gore is among the real optimists. He is going to all this trouble because he is sure that if the people understand the problem, they will be able to fix it. He is sure that Congress will do what is necessary.
The possible environmental crash is not much different from a market crash. None of us can afford to be dreamers, skeptics or optimists with reference to global warming. We must act as prudently as we would with regard to our stock market investments. It is many orders of magnitude more important to prevent an environment crash than a stock market crash.
Skeptic? See a video clip of Inhofe’s Q&A with Gore and judge for yourself what his motives are …
Posted by: Steve K at March 22, 2007 07:28 PM‘He is going to all this trouble because he is sure that if the people understand the problem, they will be able to fix it.’
Explain why he refused to sign a pledge to use the same amount of BAD energy as the average american… I thought he understands the problem???
As long as he doesn’t have to move to a smaller house! Or put a windmill in HIS backyard!
‘Criticizing Mr. Gore’s claims of a “planetary emergency” as misleading and alarmist, Senator Inhofe, a Republican of Oklahoma, sought to make a spectacle out of Mr. Gore’s much-hyped visit to the Senate. He confronted the former Democratic presidential nominee with skepticism about global warming and even demanded that Mr. Gore take a pledge not to consume more energy in his home than the average American household.
Mr. Gore did not return fire. He did not respond directly to the pledge but insisted that he and his wife, Tipper, live a “carbon neutral life.” The proposal follows stories questioning the energy efficiency of Mr. Gore’s Tennessee mansion.’
‘Congress Hears Gore on Global Warming’
‘Carbon Neutral’ means he pays to pollute.
Where’s the transcript?
You are leaving out the inconvenient truth.
Steve K, I love that clip of Sen Boxer giving Inhofe a much deserved smackdown! The problem that I see clearly isn’t that Inhofe is just a skeptic, the real problem is that he’s an assh*)e who just doesn’t care, no matter what the facts might be. But, as that clip demonstrates so well, that rude, dismissive, constantly interruptive Fox”News” style of GOP debate is now a thing of the past — at least in the Congress. Republicans like Inhofe and many others don’t seem to want to acknowledge that they aren’t the majority at the moment — so I guess we’ll need to keep reminding them.
Posted by: Adrienne at March 22, 2007 08:09 PMHow do we get the rest of the world to comply? The U. S. is small in comparison to China and India for polution and the people problem. I’m very much skeptical about all this global warming hype.
Posted by: KAP at March 22, 2007 08:15 PMSo…. NOW being the majority makes them right??
You are funny.
“So…. NOW being the majority makes them right??”
Are you talking about the large majority of respected scientists who agree that global warming is taking place? Or are you talking about the Democratic majority in Congress?
If you’re talking about Congress, then yes, absolutely. Democrats demanding that everyone must be polite enough to let someone finish their answer after being asked a question, rather than be rudely interrupted, makes us right.
Personally I think it’s a shame that so many rightwingers need to learn their manners from Congressional Democrats, when it’s something your mothers should have taught you at a very early age.
I like Al Gore when he is himself. He has a great wife (Tipper), or at least seams to. I didn’t like him in 2000, as it seemed he had too many consultants.
On global warming Al Gore has done what I would expect a politician to do. He is exagerating and profiting. The ocean isn’t going to rise 20 feet but 2 feet in the next 100 years according to the consensus scientific report. That is fine. It makes sense to me that we should reduce what a politician says by 90%. (It sure would have helped us in Iraq if we had reduced what Bush said by 90%!!)
Then of course Al Gore is making money off of off sets.
I am not buying into this Global Warming destructive thing just yet. I read about a scientist in London who in 1864 predicted in 1964 that London would be under 10 feet of horse manure. (He couldn’t forsee automobiles!). I think we should all go back to 1907 and see how much the world has changed and think about what science would predict about today.
With all of that being said, Al Gore has brought environmentalism back to the front of line. This planet so far is our only home and we need to keep it clean. For getting our environment back on the congressional agenda I give Al credit.
Craig
Posted by: Craig Holmes at March 22, 2007 08:35 PMNOBODY should be allowed to NOT answer questions and use up all the time alotted for questions
- on either side.
OPEN CORRUPTION IN DEM PARTY
News Flash, democrats using massive pork spending in must pass defense bill to buy democrat anti war votes.
This is the fiscal responsibility we were promised? This is the “end of corruption” we were promised, Democratic party leaders BUYING the votes of their own party with massive pork spending?
The party of massive spending and open corruption is back in power. And all you on the left can do is cover up for them now, no more promises of balanced budgets, responsibility, end to corruption….now you ARE the CORRUPT, Deficit Spending party in power.
Posted by: Stephen at March 22, 2007 10:22 PMAs I said before the elections, if they get in, democrats will start spending massive pork bills to assure they maintain power in 08 and that they would not balance the budget nor take us on a path to a balanced budget.
And look at where we are at. They refused to reduce government spending…after campaigning on the “fact” that the Republicans were spending too much. And now they are stuffing pork into a must pass defense bill…and doing so not only to buy votes from the voters but doing it to bribe democrat congressmen to vote for an anti War bill they would otherwise not vote for.
Talk about your “culture of corruption”…the democrats are here and they brought their culture of corruption with them.
And liberals dare not speak against it…but if Reublicans were doing it…they would be SCREAMING about the open corruption demanding jail time, etc etc.
Posted by: Stephen at March 22, 2007 10:39 PMIt’s the sun boys. Read up on it. This will be the “shocking” conclusion of the future, you are hearing it here, now. And in the New York Times.
Posted by: Stephen at March 22, 2007 11:05 PMLink to Article: It’s the Sun!
http://ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=258678873299154
Posted by: Stephen at March 22, 2007 11:09 PMI like the guy who said the poor don’t have enough money to pay to fix global warming. Um, what?!
Posted by: max at March 22, 2007 11:28 PMStephen,
First, I suggest you read the National Geographic article on Martian climate cited in your link:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming_2.html
The NG article mentions this theory presented by one scientist who is way outside the mainstream, and lacks the data to back up his unsupported theory.
As for solar irradiance as a cause of Global Warming (and Paul, really, Climate Change is a more accurate term than Global Warming, even if it lacks the cache), see the following article:
http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/FAQ2.html
To concede a point, the effect of solar irradiation is not well understood. The estimates I have seen suggest that solar irradiance accounts for 0 - 25 % of the warming we have seen.
In any event, adding greenhouse gases on top of a (possibly) warming sun seems like a terrible idea.
Posted by: phx8 at March 22, 2007 11:45 PMPaul, Good post.
Ya know Im not real smart when it comes to science but I do know that if you shut your garage door and leave your car running it wont take long to see what the problem is. I would like to suggest to all the naysayers that perhaps overnite in a garage with the car engine running will educate you on the perils of carbon in the atmosphere. Just an idea, but dont beleive me, try it for yourself.
Explain why he refused to sign a pledge to use the same amount of BAD energy as the average american
Gore uses renewable energy and so consumes less BAD energy than the average American.
As I said before the elections, if they get in, democrats will start spending massive pork bills
That’s not happening. You keep saying that, but never back it up with facts. Everything they’ve done so far has been in accordance with the pay-as-you-go rules they reinstated.
Good article Paul. I’d just like to remind everyone that it would only cost $78 per family to avert this environmental crash.
Posted by: American Pundit at March 23, 2007 01:45 AMAntarctic melting may be speeding up
Posted by: womanmarine at March 23, 2007 07:37 AMI guess it shows what a flimsy argument the global warming doubters have left, if the best they can do is to hold up a picture of icicles (as Inhofe did) and accuse Gore of contributing to a problem that they won’t even acknowledge exists. Shooting the messenger may be fun, but it has no logical validity.
I hope the Okies are proud of their Senator.
Posted by: Woody Mena at March 23, 2007 08:08 AMbugcrazy,
You missed the critical detail. Inhofe’s “pledge” wasn’t about using BAD energy. It was about using ANY KIND of energy. And Inhofe cut Gore off as Gore started to explain why that was an innapropriate comparison.
Posted by: Steve K at March 23, 2007 08:12 AMAdrienne,
Inhofe was not a “skeptic.” He was, rather, just what you say. He offered a “pledge” that is about energy use, not pollution and tried to frame his point around that. Then when Gore tries to explain that that is not the issue, he cuts him off. Then Inhofe complains about not having enough time. For Inhofe, it wasn’t about asking questions. It was about Inhofe making an irrelevent political attack on the witness and then complaining that he didn’t answer his question as the time runs out.
Good article Paul. I’d just like to remind everyone that it would only cost $78 per family to avert this environmental crash.
AP,
I get a figure closer to $100, but those are the perils of the economics today. What is baffling about this debate is the way conservatives become all gung-ho about the added cost on people to go carbon neutral, but don’t raise an eyebrow when the average joe has has to dish out several times that much more annually to fill his car’s tank since Bush became president.
Steve K:
Are you guys sure about that $100.00 figure? That is only $30 Billion.
This is no really planet emergency that costs that little.
Pass a bill, write a check done.
That number cannot be right.
Craig
Posted by: Craig Holmes at March 24, 2007 01:31 PMCraig,
There are various carbon offset calculators out there. Here is one that I am familiar with:
http://carbonfund.org/site/pages/calculator/
What that money buys is generally a subsidy for the price differential between e.g., coal and wind.
To, e.g., build a new wind plant will require a capital investment. My guess is that is not part of the equation.
But then, for fairness, you have to also factor in the capital replacement costs when a coal plant has to be retired.
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