Democrats & Liberals Archives

Woody's 2006 Senate Forecast – October Edition

Don’t believe the hype. Democratic prospects in the Senate are looking stronger than ever.

Predicted Breakdown: 50 D — 50 R
Optimistic Breakdown: 52 D — 48 R


Predicted Democratic Pickups (in order of certainty):

PA – I’m not predicting that Rick Santorum is going to lose. I predict that he is going to get beaten like a rented mule. Most polls now show Bob Casey with a double-digit lead.

MT – The ghost of Jack Abramoff (OK, he’s alive, but you know what I mean) is still haunting this race. Conrad Burns is a buffoon. In a normal year, he could probably still squeak by. This isn’t a normal year.

Democrat Jon Tester is a great straddle of our current political and cultural conflicts. He’s an organic farmer, but he looks like a football player. He has a flat-top haircut, but he wants to repeal the Patriot Act. He’s a Democrat, but he’s going to be the next Senator from Montana.

OH – Not much to say here. It is a bad year from Republicans in Ohio, and Democrat Sherrod Brown has maintained a modest lead in the polls. The tailwind from the lopsided gubernatorial race should give him whatever push he needs to cross the finish line first.

RI – Although it remains close, every poll taken in the past month favors challenger Sheldon Whitehouse over Linc Chafee. I also think Sheldon Whitehouse has a turnout advantage. Yeah, I know, Karl Rove’s brilliant turnout machine helped Linc get renominated. But now that the GOP succeeded in getting those Democrats and independents to vote for Linc in the primary, will they stick with him in the general election? In most cases, I doubt they will. Why settle for a Republican heretic when you can have an actual Democrat?

This would no doubt be the easiest loss for Democrats to live with. Chafee is at least 50% Democrat.

By the way, Zogby and the Wall Street Journal released two sets of polls this month, and they are still assuming (sans polls) that Chafee and Burns will hold onto their seats. There may be some very confused WSJ readers on Nov. 8.

MO – This predicted pickup comes closest to being a leap of faith. The polls keep wiggling back and forth. To my mind, a motivated Democratic base gives Claire McCaskill the advantage.

Potential Democratic Pickups:

VA – Some races are so straightforward I’m not sure what say. In this case it’s just the opposite – so many bizarre things have happened I don’t know where to begin. A few comments:

* There was no reason for Allen to feel that the question about his Jewish ancestry was an attack. Jewish ancestry is simply not a source of embarrassment in today’s society. I say this as someone who was raised as a Jew.

* Using the N-word decades ago doesn’t make anyone unfit to be a Senator. The story about the deer head sounds like a hate crime if it is true.

* I don’t think anyone, myself included, realized at the time the full significance of the macaca incident.

TN – In some ways this race parallels the Missouri race, with polls wiggling back and forth. I see a couple of factors here that cut against Harold Ford. First of all, he’s Black, and I fear that the well-known Wilder Effect is still operative. Secondly, he comes from a pretty shady-seeming political clan. This makes it hard to talk about cleaning up Washington. Ford still has a good shot, but not as good a chance as McCaskill.

AZ – This is a real longshot, but some polls do show Democrat Jim Pederson within single digits. I mainly mention it because I believe that growing Western states like Nevada and Arizona represent big opportunities for the D’s to expand their electoral base. An upset here would be a real shot in the arm going into the 2008.

Potential Democratic Loss

NJ – This is the only state where Democrats are in serious danger of losing a seat. As I said in earlier post, I hope Menendez is still considering the possibility of leaving the race. Even if he stays in, I think there is at least a 50% change voters will hold their nose and vote for him. The fact that the Kean campaign was corresponding with a jailbird to get dirt on him certainly works in his favor.

If the Democrats lose this seat, we can put the blame squarely on Jon Corzine. What is going on in this guy’s head? First, he spends a record $60 million running for the Senate, then he doesn’t even finish out his term. He leaves the Democrats in the lurch so he can pursue his glorious dream of becoming … (drum roll)… the Governor of New Jersey. New Jersey! I mean, I can see, Governor of California, that’s pretty rad. But New Jersey?!*
That offense was just the beginning. As governor, he appoints Bob Menendez (who was already suspected of being a shady guy) as his replacement and ticks off the whole state by raising taxes. Is there anything else this guy can do to hurt the Democrats?

I do give Corzine some credit for having the courage to reintroduce facial hair to American politics. But he’s still a jerk.

MD – This is touted in some quarters as a big opportunity for the Republicans, on the theory that Michael Steele (who is Black) will doom that Democrats by funneling away Black votes. But ponder this --

Q: Democrats depend on the Black electorate in most places. If running a Black candidate is the just the thing to siphon away those votes, why doesn't the GOP use this tactic all of the time?

A: Because it doesn't work. There are 285 Republicans in Congress, and none of the are Black. As the Lt. Governor of Maryland, Steele is by far the highest-ranked elected Black Republican in the country. That may change sooner or later, but it won't be this year.

Summary

If the polls can be trusted, PA, MT, OH, and RI are all pretty much in the bag. With a bit of luck, MO is in the D column too, giving the Democrats five additional seats. With VA, TN, and AZ in play, a seven or eight seat gain is plausible, if unlikely. The only raincloud in this sunny picture is New Jersey.

*Just kidding. New Jersey is a fine state, boasting Princeton University and… let me get back to you on this one…


Posted by Woody Mena at October 1, 2006 8:44 AM
Comments
Comment #185534

The predictions were the same for John Kerry… and they were probably accurate (percentage wise), but if the Democrats don’t get their asses out of their seats and become a part of the process (volunteer, work the voting machines, make sure everything is fair and legal and no one is rigging the elections, paper ballots, enough machines in each district) they won’t stand a chance.

Posted by: Pat at October 1, 2006 10:52 AM
Comment #185536
The predictions were the same for John Kerry

I don’t know whose predictions you are talking about. Contrary to popular belief, the polls right before the election favored Bush. It is true that the exit polls were screwed up, but that was a totally different (and flawed) methodology.

I do agree about showing up, etc.

Posted by: Woody Mena at October 1, 2006 11:04 AM
Comment #185539

I am closing my company Nov. 7th to allow my employees to get involved at the polls - drive people to the polls - door to door canvassing, etc. I only have 5 employees… but ya got to start somewhere.

Posted by: tony at October 1, 2006 11:45 AM
Comment #185541

hope it doesn’t rain on election day anywhere. everyone knows dems don’t vote in the rain. you would think that the state of affairs in this world would be enough motivation.

but, if we do get the vote out, are we 100% sure that the voting machines are going to be accurate? hope so. i guess bottom line, buy your fellow democrats umbrellas, because we’re up to our noses in b.s.

Posted by: mar at October 1, 2006 12:16 PM
Comment #185544

As I recall, when it comes to election theft, it was the democrats who were caugh slicing republican tires, telling voters to push the Kerry button, etc etc.

Pulling out dishonest claims of stolen elections is a very weak arguement. To me, it speaks of radicalized individuals who want so deperately to win no matter what, they are willing to lie and claim the election was ‘stolen’ if they lose.

I know Kerry claimed that Bin Ladden sunk his candidacy by basicaly coming out for him. But then, Kerry also claimed that in ohio America was “denied democracy”. And then again, speaking in Boston Kerry blaimed his loss on the media outlets that did not promote his candidacy. So Kerry seems to flip flop from Stolen Election to Fox News to Bin Laden.

As if a democrat needs a dishonest, radicalized, progressive-liberal press domination if they are going to win.

So getting away from the conspiracy theory nuts who think republicans control the voting machines and have spy cameras watching their ever move and getting back to the post….

I have no problem at all in thinking that democrats have an edge going into this election. On one hand the democratic party has been Anti America and pro terrorist. But on the other hand it was the Republican party that tore down the Newt Gingrich blanaced budgets and allowed all those add on bills in congress that have corrupted the system. The problem the voters have is we know that when democrats control congress and the Whitehouse they only deliver deficit budgets and high taxes. It was Newt that delivered the balanced budget and Clinto felt forced to go along with it even though he bitched about the republicans keeping him from meeting his spending promises.

In my opinon, it’s best if democrats take one of the houses so that instead of right wing or left wing the US winds up with something more in the middle.

But when, when will either party get serious about fixing social security and serious about fixing medicare and serous about stopping the corruption and serious about balancing the budget. From what I can tell, Bill clinton with a democratic congress could not get the Reublicans to agree to fix social security. And George Bush with a Republican congress, could not get the democrats to agree to fix social security…even though he was more or less pushing the Clinton fix!

The cultural war has terribly divided the nation. The democratic parties desire to take down Christian America and replace it with an amoral socialism has this nation waging a political civil war.

Posted by: Stephen at October 1, 2006 12:46 PM
Comment #185557

No one wants amoral socialism. Sigh…another straw man…I mean, with all the logical fallacies out there, isn’t it possible for you people to come up with another one? It’s getting old. No one wants amoral socialism. We want moral justice. Moral. Democrats. Together. But in Republican World, Moral has just one meaning, and it’s sexual. Out here in Democratic Land, “morality” has all kinds of applications: economic justice; responsible use of land, air, and water; sensible and moral foreign policy; and yes, keeping hands off of teenage Congressional pages. You might consider venturing out of your monomania to see what real morality looks like in the larger world. It’s nice out here.

Posted by: intelligentlife at October 1, 2006 1:33 PM
Comment #185572

After the news this weekend (Foley) - The Republicans put the ORAL in moral.

Posted by: tony at October 1, 2006 2:54 PM
Comment #185576

And Hastert was apparently tipped off quite a while ago. Puts one in the mind of the priestly abuse scandal.

I can’t wait for some Republican to compare this with Clinton. He diddled an adult, so it’s OK for them to send dirty messages to minors. Perfect GOP logic.

Posted by: Woody Mena at October 1, 2006 3:47 PM
Comment #185577
the democratic party has been Anti America and pro terrorist

The democratic parties desire to take down Christian America and replace it with an amoral socialism has this nation waging a political civil war.

What a tiring, desperate sounding bunch of BS.

Posted by: womanmarine at October 1, 2006 4:04 PM
Comment #185582

Can somedody tell me if Lieberman wins in connecticut does that not take a seat away from the Dems??

Posted by: Thomas at October 1, 2006 4:51 PM
Comment #185584

why oh why is everyone overlooking texas? hello? why do democrats so readily & infuriatingly IGNORE us here in the Lone Star State? sure the republicans are sadly entrenched in texans soil but doesn’t that makes our fight all the more valid?
i am NOT alone in thinking kay bailey hutchison (our current Senator) whom i refer to as “her royal kissup-to-bush Queenbee” deserves to LOSE. so to you clueless or apethetic who may not know, we have a VERY important race for US Senate here in texas.
if possible send MONEY for our fight. we are no less important than any other state. in fact, Barbara Ann Radnofsky is a HUGELY brilliant yet down-to-earth wise attorney, mother and the clear deserving winner. on the contrary, the evil kay bailey has done everything she can do to further dubay’s horrible legacy and deserves to be given the boot.
PLEASE STOP IGNORING TEXAS. I am one of MANY Democrats in Texas. Yes, we exist. ok? perhaps never has it been SO important as it is now. not only for texas but for the country because let’s face it, a lot of the issues of terrorism that focus on immigration are in reference to our southern border along the Rio Grande. I have never been so driven about a Senate race before but this is our chance to make so positive strides for a change in texas. RADNOFSKY IS OUR TICKET TO A BRIGHTER FUTURE. I’ve met her, talked to her, met her Campaign Mgr (Seth) and her other staff. they’re all standup people and really proactive. Please feel free our her fantastic website which by the way has won awards because it’s so intelligent, organized, media-savvy, current and creative and informative. her website is like her—timely, needed, intelligent and a great resource. go now, without hesitation, to: http://radnofsky.com/

GO, BAR, GO! TEXAS DEMOCRATS LOVE BAR!

RADNOFSKY = PROGRESS

Posted by: lisa jones at October 1, 2006 5:29 PM
Comment #185585

Thomas

Lieberman has said that if he wins he will caucus with the Dems, so we shall see what happens.

In Michigan, Stabenow has been looking good but I think she may have hurt herself with last weeks vote on the torture bill. By caving in to Bush, I’m afraid she is going to lose a good chunk of her base.

Posted by: mark at October 1, 2006 5:45 PM
Comment #185586

Hey Woody, how about Bill Nelson as a predicted pick-up in Florida? After all, Nelson isn’t a crook like Katherine Harris, so it seems like he might pull out a victory.

re: Pedophile Foley
“And Hastert was apparently tipped off quite a while ago.”

Yeah, seems like political concerns certainly trumped “family values” for the GOP there. I find it amazing that Hastert and Bohner actually allowed that pedophile to remain co-chair of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children!
Maybe they felt they just couldn’t afford to protect the teenage pages because the Delay/Cunningham/Abramoff/Ney scandals were already casting such a dark pall over the House?

Posted by: Adrienne at October 1, 2006 5:55 PM
Comment #185587

if the republicans keep yelling “dems are pro terrorism” long and loud enough won’t somebody tell then to shut their damn mouths? who is the democrat that is going to stand up and point the finger (or give) at the republican party. when they yell “anti american” call them “bought and paid for by big business”. when they call you “pro terror” call them “immoral war starting liars”. let’s tell the truth. let’s let everyone know everything about this dirty bunch in washington. tell america the truth, and we will win these elections.

Posted by: mar at October 1, 2006 6:25 PM
Comment #185589

Adrienne,

Bill Nelson is going to win. No question about that. Everyone here in Florida knows that Harris is a major wackjob. Unfortunately, Nelson is the incumbent, so that’s not a pick-up.

It will be interesting to see how this Foley thing shakes out.

Thomas,

He said he would caucus with the Dems, and he calls himself an “independent Democrat”. I suppose he could change his mind, but it would ruin his reputation.

A bigger danger in my mind is that Bush could appoint him to a Cabinet position. The governor of Connecticut (who will almost certainly be reelected) is a Republican, and apparently could name his replacement.

Lisa,

I feel for you, but Kay Bailey Hutchison isn’t going anywhere.

Posted by: Woody Mena at October 1, 2006 6:34 PM
Comment #185591

Adrienne:

Bill Nelson is already serving in the Senate, so it wouldn’t be picking anything up, merely keeping it.

lisajones:

As someone who lives in South Carolina, I understand your frustration as far as being ignored. I don’t think we’ve been forgotton, but as someone who lives in the 5th district of SC, held by Democratic Rep. John Spratt, who is facing his first serious challenge in ages, it seems some heavyweight would show up to help (like Obama maybe?). Heck, Dick Cheney was here for the challenger a few days ago (scary that would help anyone, eh?). Unfortunately, without major corporations bankrolling you, you have to choose your battles with care.

Woody:
Excellent, if optimistic, forecast. I wish I had more faith, but I’m figuring we’ll need a depression, a massive uncontrollable disease outbreak, or a famine to move some of these people. They really believe that things are apples and honey as long as there are yellow ribbons on the oak trees and mentions of Jesus in between pleas for campaign money and apologies for corruption. You should really go back to the 28th and see what horrible things people wrote as comments to Brian Ross’ abcnews blog about Mark Foley…many blamed the kid! Sure enough, when they were shown that it wasn’t a smear campaign, as they accused, they start bringing up Barney Frank and Bill Clinton.

We might have to wait a couple of years and let the GOP screw things up even more.

Posted by: Jacob in SC at October 1, 2006 6:38 PM
Comment #185604

Lisa Jones Texas is a great stste spent some time there on vac. People have to remember bush is Not from Texas he is just a pretend cowboy. So you can not judge the hole state by one dumb as#.

Posted by: Jeff at October 1, 2006 8:06 PM
Comment #185618

Woody:
“Unfortunately, Nelson is the incumbent, so that’s not a pick-up.”

Duh, that was stupid of me — you’re right of course.

“It will be interesting to see how this Foley thing shakes out.”

I think the fall out is going to be pretty big. Latest news: Looks like the entire GOP has known that Foley is a pedophile for five years: GOP Staff Warned Pages About Foley in 2001
Gotta love those Republican “family values” — torture, sex with children, corruption, etc.

Posted by: Adrienne at October 1, 2006 9:42 PM
Comment #185626

Hey Woody
Not going to mess with this lovefest or your all’s dreams, just a little info from the Show-Me State here.

It still looks like McCaskill is going to win.
The ads have started and its the same old “he said” “she said” crap. No election changing events have happened either.
Talent still hasn’t energized his voters enough, IMO and McCaskil has the “no matter what” guaranteed Dem votes from KC and St. Louis.
Talent’s ineffectivness has pretty much guaranteed that all of Missouri will be run as the two cities think it should be. Wee Haa! Can’ wait for that.

Anyways, I think MO will be an easy pick up for you guys.

Posted by: kctim at October 1, 2006 11:31 PM
Comment #185636

Jacob in SC,
I’m in S.C. as well, and definitely support Rep. John Spatt. In my area, so far it doesn’t look to good for the Republican opponent. Keeping my fingers crossed!!1

Of course this state does have a habit of choosing the worst when it can. I really do like Gerald Malloy,however. He is from our little town, yet does not from cater to the 6500 of us, but looks at the whole state.

Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we could dump the two-faced, “says one thing, does the opposite” Sen.Lindsey Gramham and the ‘dis-horrible’ Sen. Jim DeMint, not to mention our “lower property tax, raise something else” Gov. Sanford..

Posted by: Linda H. at October 2, 2006 12:33 AM
Comment #185640

Well living in California, I already have two democratic senators…Can’t do anything there. Blastimachus. I hope there is a democratic senate…some sort of power balance is necessary to keep the extremes from dominating. Like now. Dems scream corruption and Iraq and Bush is an idiot. Republicans scream dems are baby killers and homosexuals. Interestingly dems seem to be right about what they scream…just they go way over the edge with some of the conspiracy theories. At least I think they do.

Lisa
I know how you feel. There are, actually, a few republicans in California. Amazing, isn’t it? Anyway best of luck to Radnofsky.

On the Foley deal the guy is going to jail. Anyone who new about it should go to jail to. To know about this and do nothing?! Worthless republicans…Are they required to talk about this by law? Teachers are. Politics before values, er, basic human decency. Send em to jail.

Posted by: Silima at October 2, 2006 12:58 AM
Comment #185678

It will be interesting to see what the Democrats do IF they regain control of the Senate and/or House.

If all they do is hold hearings against the Bush administration or push for impeachment, then I predict a strong swing back to the Republicans in 2008. Bad news for Hillary.

If voters put Democrats in power, then the Democrats better show that they can lead, that they have solid plans for solving our country’s problems AND that they can work with the Bush administration. If not, they’ll be relegated to the back of the bus again and they’ll have no one to blame but themselves.

Posted by: mac6115cd at October 2, 2006 9:49 AM
Comment #185687

HOPE for the BEST
PLAN for the WORST

Let’s just hope the GOP continues to implode and the Dems find some balls.

Posted by: Dave1-20-09 at October 2, 2006 10:37 AM
Comment #185688

Dave, the implosion isn’t slowing down as far as I can tell: GOP Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) let Foley spend “a lot of time” with pages, including private dinner with one, after GOP knew Foley was a problem.

Posted by: Adrienne at October 2, 2006 10:42 AM
Comment #185692

New Mason Dixon poll (most respected in the industry) shows Ford’s numbers shaping up better than expected. A report on the poll is found at this link, MSNBC article:

Ford is supported by 43 percent of likely voters and Corker is supported by 42 percent. Only 1 percent support a third party candidate and 14 percent are undecided. The poll was conducted for the Memphis Commercial Appeal and the Chattanooga Times Free Press.

Ford is viewed favorably by more Tennessee voters, 44 percent, than is Corker, 38 percent, and less unfavorably, 30 percent to Corker’s 35 percent.

Posted by: David R. Remer at October 2, 2006 10:52 AM
Comment #185698

i have my voter registration ready and will go to the polls come hell or high water come voting day as usual . if the rest of the dems dont get there ass out there and vote then theyve got nothing to complain about except the fact that they didnt get there ass out there and vote!. the one thing i want to know is how can you guarantee this wont be rigged like the last two elections - im voting regardless- a little help here maybe!.

Posted by: paul k. lindland at October 2, 2006 11:19 AM
Comment #185699

i have my voter registration ready and will go to the polls come hell or high water come voting day as usual . if the rest of the dems dont get there ass out there and vote then theyve got nothing to complain about except the fact that they didnt get there ass out there and vote!. the one thing i want to know is how can you guarantee this wont be rigged like the last two elections - im voting regardless- a little help here maybe!.

Posted by: paul k. lindland at October 2, 2006 11:22 AM
Comment #185703

“the one thing i want to know is how can you guarantee this wont be rigged like the last two elections”

Thats easy Paul K.
The left will believe the election wasn’t rigged if a Dem wins and they will show “facts” saying it was rigged if a Rep wins.

So, you have a 50/50 chance of being told to believe if the election was rigged or not.

Posted by: kctim at October 2, 2006 12:02 PM
Comment #185708

Paul,

You are running a corrupt Hillary Clinton for the Whitehouse…of course the election is rigged. It is rigged against you because you are starting with someone who lied to the public, stole, cheated, is openly corrupt.

Is the 2008 election rigged? Of course it is, it’s rigged against the corrupt Clintons and the radical left wing party that will run them.

Posted by: Stephen at October 2, 2006 12:24 PM
Comment #185724

“I wish I had more faith, but I’m figuring we’ll need a depression, a massive uncontrollable disease outbreak, or a famine to move some of these people.” Posted by Jacob

Yet another case of Democratic wishful thinking! Willing to sacrifice the lives of your fellow Americans for political gain, as usual, just like when you guys jump and cheer for every carbomb that goes off in Iraq.(The party really gets going if there are a lot of U.S. casualties) Disgusting.

Posted by: Duane-o at October 2, 2006 3:08 PM
Comment #185728

Stephen,

please explain Hillarys “corruption”. Please avoid the discredited slimeboater nonsense from the 70’s & 80’s.

Duane-o,

Do you have a sense of irony? Or was it mandatory that people give up all critical thinking when joining the American Fascist Party, I mean Republican Party?

Adrienne,

I just hope this particular scandal didn’t come too early and is forgotten by election day.

kc,

It’s easy to dismiss election fraud when Diebold is in charge of the machines. After all, we know they vote Democratic.

Posted by: Dave1-20-09 at October 2, 2006 3:24 PM
Comment #185731

I don’t dismiss is Dave1.
I know that both party’s are up to their eyeballs in the fraud too.
But watch, as soon as the libs win in 06 and 08, the right will be screaming election fraud and will have their own little “liberal conspiracy” to complain about and the left will be the ones saying quit your whining, all was fair.
The only difference?
The left forms protest marches and comes up with silly little chants.
The right forms militias.

Posted by: kctim at October 2, 2006 3:41 PM
Comment #185732

Woody,

“A bigger danger in my mind is that Bush could appoint him to a Cabinet position. The governor of Connecticut (who will almost certainly be reelected) is a Republican, and apparently could name his replacement.”

Minor detail: Jodi Rell. “can name HER replacement.” You are right that she will be reelected, she is wildly popular and apparently clean, unlike her predecessor.

Good post overall.

Posted by: Greg at October 2, 2006 4:08 PM
Comment #185733

Geeze Kctim:

Whose side are you on again?

:)

Posted by: womanmarine at October 2, 2006 4:14 PM
Comment #185736

kc,

The difference is that both sides pull petty local crap but the GOP has bought the voting machines themselves.
From your post you seem to prefer the sword to the pen. Nice.

Posted by: Dave1-20-09 at October 2, 2006 4:27 PM
Comment #185738

Greg,

Rell can name Joe Lieberman’s replacement. Joe is male.


David Remer,

And Rasmussen now shows Ford up by 5.

Duane-o,

Yes, a political party made up of people who cheered went car bombs went off would be truly disgusting. Nonexistent, but disgusting.

Posted by: Woody Mena at October 2, 2006 4:41 PM
Comment #185739

I have a question. Seriously. I just watched a Kennedy (don’t know which one) complaining about the voiting machines and lack of paper trail but dismissed the whole “hanging chads” thing. My question is: By which method do Democrats want elections done? Machines, paper ballots, lever pulls? What would make them sure that Republicans are not stealing the elections? Please remember, this is a serious question.

Posted by: Ilsa at October 2, 2006 4:55 PM
Comment #185740

womanmarine
Neither :)

Dave1
So you are saying that its a guarantee that the GOP will win in 06 and 08 again? If they have bought all the voting machines, there is no way they can loose, right.

Sword or pen?
Doesn’t matter. Some are born to wield a sword and some are born to wield a pen.
And they are only effective when they work together.

Posted by: kctim at October 2, 2006 4:57 PM
Comment #185741

a) No, there is no gurantee since the fraud has to be subtle, not all machines are from Diebold, and hopefully more states will eschew e-voting machines because of the ease in which they are corrupted and the lack of paper trail.

b) maybe. The sword is only needed when people of power feel threatened or people who feel powerless feel there’s nothing to lose.

Posted by: Dave1-20-09 at October 2, 2006 5:08 PM
Comment #185742

Ilsa,

I would prefer that every step of each election - from the machines and counting, to the precincts, to the people in charge of the outcome - all of it be non-partisan. The fact that the party in charge can redraw district lines - or that a person in charge of a state political party is also the person in charge of controlling the voting outcomes - or that politicians make choices about the voting methods… it’s all tainted.

I’m not saying there has been abuse in the past - but I am saying that there is a huge appearance of conflict of interest. It’s OUR votes - not the politicians. The people in charge of it all should be as non-biased as possible - at every single step.

The CHADs were a debacle… but the paperless voting machines just beg for conspiracy theorist… the mere fact that the only 2 states to go against the exit polls in 2004 were the 2 that used paperless Diabold machines (the CEO of which promised to do whatever it took to put Bush back in the White House…) all of that degrades the appearance of an honest election. All of it.

I don’t inherently trust politicians… it’s like letting them vote for their own pay raises….

Posted by: tony at October 2, 2006 5:08 PM
Comment #185743

I live in Ohio, which now uses Diebold machines (punchcards in ‘04), and there is ALWAYS a paper printout of your votes that is kept for reference in a close election.

As to my earlier post, I quoted Jacob who was hoping for a deadly catastrophe to help the Democratic cause “I wish I had more faith, but I’m figuring we’ll need a depression, a massive uncontrollable disease outbreak, or a famine to move some of these people.” Not too far from what I described.

Posted by: Duane-o at October 2, 2006 5:20 PM
Comment #185744

tony,

My problem, and the answer to my question, are elusive. You see, you are partisan, I am partisan, the politians are parisan. That’s our government and our democracy. By the way, the politians are also citizen voters, so you can’t exclude them. Regardless of the method, or so your post seems to suggest, you can’t pick a single method that you can trust because all of the parties involved are partian.

There is only ONE group in this country that shuns politics, electronics and worldly influences: The Amish. How about them? They could man the polls, use paper ballots, count them and collate them and then give us the results about 2 weeks after the election.

In this day of instant communication, I’m not sure it would work, but heck, I’d give it a try just to stop the “they stole the vote” silliness. Now, where I vote, I have to show a voter registration card, my drivers license and be checked off in the voter registration records before I’m handed a ballot that I take to a table, all by myself that I make with a pen (straight ticket, because that’s all I’m allowed to do in Michigan - can’t vote for dem for one office and rep for another!), then I walk it, by myself, to an electronic reader that sucks it in and tells me that the ballot has been read.

Sounds like a straight and sure method of voting to me. How do you do yours? Are you allowed to wear a parisan t-shirt? Not me. Can you wear a campaign button to the polls? Not me. No leaflets or posters are allowed within so many feet of the polling place - all the laws are strictly enforced here in Michigan. Are you saying that these same laws are not enforced where you live? If not, why not? Don’t the police do their jobs? I guess I’m just not convinced that the voting method is the problem, but that maybe it’s the politicians running and the completely unimpressive number of voters who actually get off their butts and participate in the actual voting process.

Posted by: Ilsa at October 2, 2006 5:27 PM
Comment #185745

jeez, PARTISAN, not parisan! It’s been a long day :)

Posted by: Ilsa at October 2, 2006 5:33 PM
Comment #185753

I guess Duane-o didn’t see the video by the university.

Posted by: womanmarine at October 2, 2006 7:02 PM
Comment #185756

My point isn’t that most people have political leanings, it’s that the bulk of decisions reguarding elections are in the hands of the politicians and political parties. How can anyone consider that a good way to run elections.

BTW - not sure why you would consider talk of election fraud “silly.” It’s happened here before, and it happens all over the world. It’s kind of second nature for most political processes.

Posted by: tony at October 2, 2006 7:19 PM
Comment #185758

The polls are leaning our way. Before all of the news in the last few days I thought our chances of taking one of the houses was 50/50 at best. I belive with the Bob Woodward book and the foley fallout I think the reps are TOAST! Its a great day to be a Dem!

Posted by: Jrff at October 2, 2006 7:27 PM
Comment #185763

Ilsa

I don’t know where you got the idea you have to vote straight ticket in Michigan but that is not true in a general election. You can certainly vote a split ticket. In a primary you must choose one party, but do not let anyone tell you that you have to vote a straight ticket in any other election.

Posted by: mark at October 2, 2006 7:36 PM
Comment #185781

It is too bad that neither of the Senators from Kansas are up for reelection. Pat Roberts is now playing “lap dog” to those truth optional people in this Administration and good ole Sam Brownback is making Goldwater look like a liberal. We have several great chances to defeat GOPers in the House. They, the Republicans from Kansas in Congress, just voted to give Bush the right to torture, now that is as unAmerican as you can get.

America must make a choice. Either the Constitution is for everybody or it is for nobody. These GOPers use scare tacticts to try to get votes. A person must be very stupid to believe the Bull Stuff that is coming from this Administration.

Vote this next election and send a BIG message to Bush and Company that “We Have Has Enough.”

Posted by: C.T. Rich at October 2, 2006 8:50 PM
Comment #185785

Weary Willie

Do you consider wire tapping(listening to your phone calls that you are making from your home)entering your Home?

Posted by: mark at October 2, 2006 9:04 PM
Comment #185787

Weary Willie
“Change the position of money and change the position of Government.” GREAT QUOTE! Can I use it?

Posted by: mark at October 2, 2006 9:08 PM
Comment #185791

ILSA
confirming what mark said… you vote a straight ticket in the primarys.. but.. certainly not in the general election…
in my 50 years of voting, i have never voted a straight ticket in the general election………………. but……. i will this time!!

Posted by: JOHN B at October 2, 2006 9:15 PM
Comment #185795

Ilsa, its the non-partisan Independent voters you need to watch out for. They are going to turn the Senatorial elections in Tenn. and Virginia. Partisans are equally divided and equally predictable. The battle is for the non-partisans who can go either way in any given race. That is the current state of American politics to a large extent. And these non-partisan’s numbers are growing with each election cycle. That is a profound fact that both parties are going to have to reconcile themselves to at some point.

Posted by: David R. Remer at October 2, 2006 9:17 PM
Comment #185835

So, can you think of a good election slogan for the Republicans at the moment? I’ve thought of a few.

For Pedophile Foley, and the Hastert, Shimkus, Alexander, etc. etc. cover-up:

The GOP — Leaving Nothing Left of Your Child’s Behind.

Vote Republican — We Leave No Page Unturned… or Untwisted.

The GOP — We’ve Said We’ll Keep YOU Secure — We Made No
Promises About Your Children.

For Condi brushing off Tenet’s warnings about Al Qaeda, and lying about not remembering their meeting, and neither Condi nor Tenent feeling the need to tell the 9/11 Commision about that meeting:

The GOP — We’ll Try A Little Harder Before The Next Terrorist Attack.

The Republican Party — Vote For Us Now, And We Promise Condi Will Never Run For President.

Aside From This Warning, And That “Bin Laden Determined To Strike In US” Memo, No One Could Have Guessed The Terrorist Threat — Vote Republican!

The GOP — Vote For Us Now, And Take Home A Congressional Medal Of Freedom! (Limited Offer, Void Where Prohibited).

:^)

Posted by: Adrienne at October 3, 2006 1:31 AM
Comment #185840

Nah! Republicans campaign slogan is: We have access to an unlimited charge card called taxpayer revenues for generations to come. Tell us what you want for your vote, we will be happy to buy it for you. Need a bridge in Alaska? No problem. Need a million dollar gazebo in your town square, just show me the vote pledges. We have your money, and your children’s money, and your grandchildren’s money. Just tell us how many votes we can buy with their money. We’ll be happy to oblige.

Posted by: David R. Remer at October 3, 2006 1:47 AM
Comment #185844

David, all very good points, but I’m afraid you’re using too much grey matter, and really not channeling your inner Turd Blossom. Gotta make ‘em a lil’ more short and snappy for easy consumption.

Posted by: Adrienne at October 3, 2006 2:32 AM
Comment #185880

Adrienne,

Very true re: short slogans. How about:

Republicans - Vote for us or else.

Posted by: Dave1-20-09 at October 3, 2006 10:52 AM
Comment #185884

“I wish I had more faith, but I�€™m figuring we�€™ll need a depression, a massive uncontrollable disease outbreak, or a famine to move some of these people.” Posted by Jacob

“Yet another case of Democratic wishful thinking! Willing to sacrifice the lives of your fellow Americans for political gain, as usual, just like when you guys jump and cheer for every carbomb that goes off in Iraq.(The party really gets going if there are a lot of U.S. casualties) Disgusting.”

Look, Sick-o, you know what I meant. What a great example of Republicans distorting things people say for their own ends.

Posted by: Jacob in SC at October 3, 2006 11:19 AM
Comment #185891

Dave:

“How about:
Republicans - Vote for us or else.”

Nice, Dave. I like how the threat is left dangling on the end there. The danger angle is very good… How about:

The GOP — Isn’t it more exciting living life at the Edge of destruction?

The GOP — Extreme Government — kinda like Extreme Sports, but even scarier, and a whole lot more expensive.

Who needs the Middle Class? Live life on the Edge — Vote Republican!

Posted by: Adrienne at October 3, 2006 12:08 PM
Comment #185893

LOL Adrienne, How about:
Join us in the Middle Ages. Live life in the past - Vote Republican!

Posted by: Dave1-20-09 at October 3, 2006 12:12 PM
Comment #185894

“if it turns out that there were dems that also knew about this and did nothing,”

It looks like that isn’t the case. Republicans have been automatically leaving Democrats out of every loop. Seems the Dems were not informed about this, even though the GOP knew for FIVE years that Foley’s pedophilia was a problem, and even though Hastert and others in leadership knew about it for about a year or so:

Rep. Dale Kildee, the Democratic member of the House Page Board, released a strongly worded statement expressing outrage that he had not been informed about the emails at any point after Republicans on the board had been made aware of them: “I was outraged to learn that the House Republican leadership kept to itself the knowledge of Mr. Foley’s despicable behavior toward the House pages.”

He added that the noticeable Republican tendency of leaving the Democratic member of the board out of any decision-making processes continues even today: “I am now equally outraged to learn that Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert announced today that there will be changes in the policies of the House Page program. Once again, I was not informed of the meeting today, nor was I consulted in any way about any proposed changes.”

Quote from this article: Conservatives also seek Hastert’s resignation

Posted by: Adrienne at October 3, 2006 12:13 PM
Comment #185968

Spin Spin go the reps. The Dems did this and they did that and doin’t forget about Clinton. Remember what so and so did in the 80s no its about you. You people always claim the moral high ground until its one of your own then its spin spin spin.

Posted by: Jeff at October 3, 2006 6:56 PM
Comment #185970

Where is that pilsner guy anyway. Not much to say right now I guess.

Posted by: Jeff at October 3, 2006 7:00 PM
Comment #194038

about those Diebold machines: The card which counts the votes that goes into each of the voting machines contains a program which allows the actual tally to be altered without detection. For evidence, watch the documentary aired on HBO on election night. This alteration can take place BEFORE the card is installed into the voting machine. This is how there was a NEGATIVE COUNT in the machines for the democratic candidate in one county in Florida in ‘04. Why should they have a program like that in a card that should only be able to count positive numbers?

Posted by: Bertila Baker at November 8, 2006 1:59 PM
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