August 03, 2005
OH-2: The stench of Republican sweat fills the air
Ohio’s special election forced the Republican Party to dump cash and resources into a seat that should have been completely safe for them.
According to the Almanac of American Politics 2006, "The most Republican major metropolitan area in the nation over the longest time span has been Cincinnati". Bush beat Kerry 64%-36% in this region.
The Republicans were forced to sweat this race because, as Howard Dean has noted over and over...the Democrats made it competitive. They didn't just roll over and let the Republicans have the seat.
I received a copy of this NRCC memo today courtesy of a Democratic aide:
MEMOTo: GOP Friends
From: Carl Forti, Communications Director
Ed Patru, Deputy Communications DirectorRe: OH-02 Special Election
Date: August 3, 2005
National Republicans last night retained the OH-02 Congressional seat vacated by Ambassador Rob Portman. Republican Jean Schmidt defeated Democrat Paul Hackett. The following post-election analysis may be helpful to you as you discuss the race and its implications.
Republicans Won; Democrats Lost – Republican Jean Schmidt defeated Democrat Paul Hackett by a comfortable margin, 52%-48%. Turnout in last night’s special election was 29%.Hackett Ran as a Republican – Despite Hackett’s best efforts to nationalize the OH-02 special election, and the national media’s extraordinary interest in the race, the election was a local race and Hackett ran as a Republican. Two of his TV ads – including his closing ad – bore images of the President.
Democrats Failed to Create Wind on Ethics – Despite Democrat attempts to link Schmidt to the cloud of controversy in Columbus, Hackett still failed to win. What happened in Ohio was a microcosm of the strategy Democrats are aiming to employ nationally, namely, they are attempting to defeat Republicans by creating an anti-Republican wind.
Democrats Failed in OH-02 Despite Enormous Help – Even with an extraordinary amount of national media attention showered on Hackett, a huge last-minute influx of money from Democrat-affiliated special interests and other liberal online groups, and aggressive help from online bloggers, Democrats failed in OH-02. Despite all the national attention and online support, national Democrats failed to support Hackett. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi did not donate to the Hackett campaign. DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel also failed to lend his personal financial support to Hackett.
The President Remains Popular Among Republicans – The OH-02 special demonstrated that the President remains immensely popular among Republican base voters, and that Democrat attempts to make congressional elections a referendum on the President’s policies in districts where Republicans outnumber Democrats will not work.
National Democrats Are Extremely Vulnerable on the Issue of Taxes – Democrat Paul Hackett was defeated largely as a result of his positions on taxes. OH-02 demonstrated emphatically that national Democrats do not have credibility on the tax message and they continue to be extremely vulnerable on the issue.
National Democrats Wasted Money They Don’t Have on OH-02 – National Democrats spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the special at a time when they have less than a third of the COH net resources available to them than the national Republicans have.
The fact that the NRCC found it necessary in the first place to send out a memo on a special election that should have been a cakewalk for them is extremely telling. They need talking points (TPs..which is also what they wipe with) for a seat they should have held with great ease?
TP #1: Republicans Won; Democrats Lost– Republican Jean Schmidt defeated Democrat Paul Hackett by a comfortable margin, 52%-48%. Turnout in last night’s special election was 29%.
Rob Portman, who vacated the seat, received 70%+ of the vote in this district from 1998-2004. Schmidt won it by 4. Not only is this an extremely UNCOMFORTABLE margin for the GOP and Schmidt..it's just a few heartbeats away from an automatic recount.
TP #2:Hackett Ran as a Republican – Despite Hackett’s best efforts to nationalize the OH-02 special election, and the national media’s extraordinary interest in the race, the election was a local race and Hackett ran as a Republican. Two of his TV ads – including his closing ad – bore images of the President.
Schmidt took half a million dollars of NRCC (that's national, for those of you scoring at home) cash for this race. The national media became interested in the race after the shameful attempts at smearing Paul Hackett. Not to mention Schmidt's dishonesty regarding her association with Republican blogger and former candidate Eric Minamyer.
TP #3:Democrats Failed to Create Wind on Ethics – Despite Democrat attempts to link Schmidt to the cloud of controversy in Columbus, Hackett still failed to win. What happened in Ohio was a microcosm of the strategy Democrats are aiming to employ nationally, namely, they are attempting to defeat Republicans by creating an anti-Republican wind.
How dare those Democrats point out Schmidt's shaky ethics. And since when is Coingate a "cloud of controversy"? The Republican Party of Ohio has been exposed as a corrupt political machine that screwed the taxpayers of Ohio. It's crystal. Schmidt lied about her association with Noe..the guy at the head of the scandal.
TP #4:Democrats Failed in OH-02 Despite Enormous Help – Even with an extraordinary amount of national media attention showered on Hackett, a huge last-minute influx of money from Democrat-affiliated special interests and other liberal online groups, and aggressive help from online bloggers, Democrats failed in OH-02. Despite all the national attention and online support, national Democrats failed to support Hackett. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi did not donate to the Hackett campaign. DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel also failed to lend his personal financial support to Hackett.
The DNC sent 28 campaign staff to Ohio. Hackett clearly had enough money and resources to make a major difference in the race. Republican bitching about "national" influences in this race is complete joke. If Pelosi and Emanuel had focused a huge amount into this race, Hackett still likely would have lost and the GOP would be complaining about how the Dems wasted their money.
(Oh wait...see TP#7)
TP #5:The President Remains Popular Among Republicans – The OH-02 special demonstrated that the President remains immensely popular among Republican base voters, and that Democrat attempts to make congressional elections a referendum on the President’s policies in districts where Republicans outnumber Democrats will not work.
According to Zogby, the Red State approval ratings for Bush aren't exactly under the "immensely popular" category:
Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall. President Bush is approved by 52% in the Red States, a positive trend away from his 48% job approval there a month ago. But in the Blue States, the President’s approval is in freefall, down to 37% in the latest poll, two points lower than the 39% of Blue States who approved his job performance in June.
If "just barely half of the people think Bush doesn't suck" in the states that voted for him is "immensely popular" then the "soft bigotry of low expectations" has once again reared it's head.
TP #6:National Democrats Are Extremely Vulnerable on the Issue of Taxes – Democrat Paul Hackett was defeated largely as a result of his positions on taxes. OH-02 demonstrated emphatically that national Democrats do not have credibility on the tax message and they continue to be extremely vulnerable on the issue.
Hackett creamed Schmidt with rural voters..where taxes tend to be the larger issue. Hackett practically won a seat that has been virtually untouchable for the last 6 years. It would appear that the nation is preparing itself for a reasonable and responsible tax and spend strategy..even in it's most Republican regions. Raising taxes in a time of war (that's why we had to have Bolton in the UN right now..we're at war, remember?) isn't unreasonable to the vast majority of Americans. Even Republican Americans.
TP #7:National Democrats Wasted Money They Don’t Have on OH-02 – National Democrats spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the special at a time when they have less than a third of the COH net resources available to them than the national Republicans have.
Weren't they just complaining that the Dems didn't use all their resources to help Hackett? They also claimed that Hackett tried to "nationalize" a local race by using outside resources? And now here it says the Dems spent resources they didn't have? The GOP can't even keep their talking points straight in the same damn memo.
And don't worry about the national Dems when it comes to money, Dr. Dean has everything well under control.
Hooray! That’s telling them, Carla!
Soon there will be no red states and blue states. It was always a myth, promulgated by Republicans to tease and annoy Democrats. Democrats like Hackett, who knock Bush and criticize Republicans as corrupt “chickenhawks,” will challenge each of the 232 House Republicans in next year’s election.
And, Hackett lost only temporarily. He’ll no doubt be back next year to complete the job and win the election. This, plus all the other elections Democrats will win, will make all states a clear white, open to all.
Posted by: Paul Siegel at August 3, 2005 05:57 PMnice clip, marla…
can’t help but wonder, tho.. if the election were today… how the voting would have gone.. considering that the 14 marines that were killed just recently, were from the ohio nat’l guard???
Posted by: JOHN BAKER at August 3, 2005 06:54 PMI didn’t learn anything from your article but maybe you can learn from mine. Bush lacks intelligence, even in his speeches he makes up words that don’t exist in the dictionary, for example - “renewables”. Even those who voted for Bush - well they are listening and learning.
Bush’s energy speech (May 17, 2001) quote, “If we fail to act, our country will become more reliant on foreign crude oil, putting our national energy security into the hands of foreign nations, some of whom who do not share our interests
One…Two…Three…(what are we fighting for?) First, it reduces demand by promoting innovation and technology to make us the world leader in efficiency and conservation.
Second, it expands and diversifies America’s supply of all sources of energy — oil and gas, clean coal, solar, wind, bio-mass, hydropower and other renewables, as well as safe and clean nuclear power.
Third and finally, the report outlines the ways to bring producers and consumers together by modernizing the networks of pipes and wires that link the power plant to the outlet on the wall.
Our goal is to use less additional energy to fuel more economic growth, and I know we can do so. (written in 2001)
Over-dependence on any one source of energy, especially a foreign source, leaves us vulnerable to price shocks, supply interruptions and, in the worst case, blackmail.
What difference does 600,000 barrels a day make? Well, that happens to be exactly the amount we import from Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
(Bush’s real goal) One…Two…Three…(what are we fighting for?) modernizing the network that delivers the supply to the point of demand.(USA)
Q & A to Bush - But they’re wasting their time if they think that they’ll get from you an international binding agreement about mandatory curbs on greenhouse gases?
THE PRESIDENT: I have — I have no idea — look, you’re asking me to design a treaty here with you on the set of the — right here on the set of this — on this beautiful set. I mean, that’s kind of — but I’m telling you, if you’re trying to get me to say, we support Kyoto, the answer is no, we don’t. And it’s a bad deal for America. (how intelligent)
Asian and European nations have strongly criticized Bush’s decision in 2001 to abandon the Kyoto treaty, which commits 37 industrialized nations to cut gas emissions. Bush has criticized the treaty, saying it set unrealistic goals and could damage the U.S. economy. But other nations worry about scientific concerns that climate change could lead to severe floods and droughts, rising sea levels and an increase in malaria and respiratory disease.
Bush calls Iraq “the central front” in the war on terror. The suicidal hijackers who crashed the World Trade Center and Pentagon where all from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, not Afghanistan (Iran or Iraq). Rich Saudis fund and encourage the violent, fundamentalist breed of Islam from which the hijackers came. The religious schools that breed the radical mujahdeen, including many who have joined the Taliban Army, are mostly in Pakistan. Iraq and Iran do fund and support terrorists. In other words, the terrorists are spread across many nations and not all harbored in Afghanistan. Furthermore, numerous experts link the 911 hijackers to an Egyptian group, Gama’at al-Islamiyya. (Best known for the 1993 WTC bombing).
The President and Congress have breached a sacred trust with our soldiers and abused their oath to defend the Constitution by leading young Americans to kill and die in a war based on lies.
The war in Iraq has claimed more than 1,821 (as of today) Americans, wounded 13,190 and cost more than $200 billion. The war has helped to make Bin Laden larger than life. He will become a celebrated martyr of the Muslim world. We also took a country by force that had no political power, (this defies America’s sense of fairness) and the terrorists were not even from Iran or Iraq. The bombing campaigns may well usher into power the northern alliance, a group more brutal than the Taliban. Our efforts “of democracy” that are underway at forming a broad pan-Afghan political coalition of anti-Taliban parties, some veteran diplomats and intelligence officers are skeptical that such a confederation would survive after a victory over the Taliban. The result of this Northern Alliance taking power, predict a new flood of heroin across the globe. Afghanistan produces 75 percent of the world’s opium, used to make heroin.
July 11, 2005 Bush says nation must ‘stay on offense’ against terror. Again saying that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror. The terrorists were from Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
The simple fact is that the Bush administration has refused to make the needed investments to secure American cities and towns. We spend more in Iraq in a single month than we spend on first responders all year.
The “blowback” effect of the war has created more harm than good. London is just another example of what is being accomplished.
I’ll just quote Bush now when he said this, “I have opinions of my own - strong opinions - but I don’t always agree with them.” (his own admission of stupidity)
On Wednesday, the Web site of the Ansar al-Sunnah Army posted photographs from Monday’s attack on the Marine sniper team. One picture shows a bloody, battered body wearing Marine camouflage trousers. Another shows two hooded gunmen standing in front of several rifles, apparently taken from dead Marines.
“The heroes slaughtered those who were still alive … except for one, who begged the mujahedeen for his life. They captured him and he is in our hands.”
At the Pentagon, Ham said no Marines were missing and believed captured.
At least 1,821 members of the U.S. military have died since the Iraq war began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.
Marines often criticize the protection provided by their armored amphibious vehicles, or AAVs, which are designed to be dropped from ships for coastal assaults. The vehicles have armor plating that is lighter than those used by the Army.
I learned nothing from your article. Anyone who can support Bush at all is failing not only himself/herself but their country. Bush is patting his wallet and young boys are dying. For what? The war has nothing to do with 911. It is about oil. Saudi’s and money! It’s not even about political parties anymore. END THE WAR NOW ! Annie
Blah, blah, blah. Democrats lost. Fight harder next time.
Posted by: Aldous at August 3, 2005 08:29 PMAnnie,
You do know that the post was not pro-Bush, right?
Aldous,
Why the repug ‘dems are whiners’ whine?
Posted by: Dave at August 3, 2005 08:42 PM—-
Blah, blah, blah. Democrats lost. Fight harder next time.
—-
Why the repug ‘dems are whiners’ whine?
—-
Let them start simple… they like it that way … keep in mind who their leader is.
Posted by: tony at August 3, 2005 08:56 PMBottom line is that a Republican won. It was a close race, as many races have been. Its usually a stronger Republican district, so that bodes well for Dems. But….they still lost, so that bodes well for Republicans.
Anyone who takes too much out of a single race like this opens themselves up to be very misled on the reality of what will happen. Prognosticators, especially those who look at a race like this one as a harbinger of things to come, are a dime a dozen. They’ll be forgotten soon enough, or more likely, if they are wrong about their predictions, will simply change what their predictions were.
Posted by: joebagodonuts at August 3, 2005 08:59 PMjoe -
I agree. I’m glad to see the DEMs doing well in a very REP area, but it really isn’t a weather balloon. I think I’ve completely given up on any type of relationship between politics and reason. Well, ok… the reason you win is because you the most votes. After that it’s all up in the air. Ashcroft lost to a dead guy. (OK - that makes sense too… anyway)
I’ve tried to rationalize and check the polls and watch the press and try to decipher what it all means - get some bead on how it’s all going to go. Nadda.
I think people get lots of facts and opinions together, argue a bunch with their friends and family, but on the big day, when they’re in the booth, they press the prettiest button. Or a last name that’s similar to their first girlfriend’s… something, anything but not logic.
Posted by: tony at August 3, 2005 09:08 PMThese things are decided by people who ACTUALLY VOTE. The turnout was a measly 21% and that’s during a major scandal. If the Ohio people are too dumb and/or lazy to control their destiny, then they deserve Bush.
I’m not in the camp that this is some big win for Democrats. The fact is we still lost. We lose all the time. It’s sad that so many people in the party get excited about near-wins. That’s just completely ridiculous to me. You don’t go bragging about how you LOST.
I don’t care how red the district is, the fact is that Ohio is in the midst of huge Republican scandals and we have a lame duck Republican president. The 48% who voted for an Iraq vet doesn’t mean jack for future elections unless we plan on running Iraq vets in every race.
Posted by: andre at August 3, 2005 10:50 PMCarla said…
Hackett practically won a seat…
4% shouldn’t get in anyone’s way, the courts should be able to overturn it. By all means, swear him in.
Posted by: Discerner at August 3, 2005 11:15 PMPaul said:
“Soon there will be no red states and blue states”
In your dreams.
Posted by: cliff at August 3, 2005 11:19 PMTony:
With all due respect, perhaps their logic is different from yours, which might be why it doesnt seem logical to you. That’s not to say that it is or isnt logical, but I wouldnt discount it as blithely as you seem to.
Your statement makes it appear that you think anyone voting Republican is illogical. Thats a pretty partisan viewpoint to take, if its one that you are actually taking.
I dont know anything about either candidate, and I dont live in Ohio. If Dems want to conclude there is a moral victory in it somewhere, despite the concrete loss, then so be it.
Posted by: joebagodonuts at August 3, 2005 11:22 PMWhile I would have prefered a victory, the fact is the last margin of victory for Republicans in this district was about 20-30% better, and did not require the expenditure of resources. With any luck, the winner in this election should prove to be as obnoxious running the district as she was campaigning for it, and there will be plenty of willingly given quotes to tip the balance next time.
The Republicans cannot afford to believe that as long as they win today, they will always win tomorrow. They fail to realize that this got us Democrats in trouble a decade ago. I mean, the Republican majority can’t possibly go the way of the Democrat majority, can it?
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at August 3, 2005 11:39 PMAccording to an Air America commentary this afternoon, the Ohio special election showed returns tied 50-50 until the final ten minutes before the polls closed. At that point Claremont (sp?) County submitted its votes, showing a 4000 vote margin for Schmidt. Interesting number- a high enough margin for a close win without a recount.
It might be nothing, just another coincidence, or even a fabrication by Air America. We’ll see tomorrow if there’s anything to this…
Posted by: phx8 at August 4, 2005 12:58 AMtony and andre,
If you do not recognize the credible significance of Hackett’s candidacy for the Democratic Party, then make a convincing argument that refutes the strong case carla has so effectively laid out.
The fact that nearly every Right blogger I’ve visited (who’s simultaneously sidestepping the Rove scandal) needed to disingenuously puncture the Left’s glee over Hackett’s strong showing as well, is also telling.
Meaning, like the Downing Street Memo, Armstrong Williams and Gannongate, the ramifications of this race were worrisome enough to the Right for them to convince of their insignificance.
Yet, however much they secretly believe the Left’s assertions, the Right will further entrench themselves in arrogant denial.
Posted by: Bert M. Caradine at August 4, 2005 01:50 AMjoe -
Never said anything about only REPs voting that way. I think most people vote that way.
Bert-
It still doesn’t allow for people’s irrational voting. We can feel good about this, but we DEMs have to give them something that is tangible beyond facts to take with them into the voting booths. Until that, sensible arguments will not make me feel good about the upcoming elections.
Tony:
Thanks for the clarification. I’m glad I asked the question rather than just sticking with an incorrect assumption.
Bert:
From my perspective, I’m not out to disinguosly puncture the Left’s glee. But I think it would be silly for the Left to place too much hope in a close defeat. After the 2000 election, the “Left” was in glee over John Kerry’s chances, since Dems had won more of the popular vote in 2002 etc. It didnt happen.
Dems are right to be buoyed by the strong performance, and it may hold some hope for them. But…if they’ve learned anything, they will see it for what it is: A closer than expected loss, which might or might not mean anything.
Posted by: joebagodonuts at August 4, 2005 07:45 AMWhat is interesting about this race to me, besides the closeness: Since 2000 we have heard that the Democrats will lose elections until they stop being “crazy” and “hateful”, and emulate the gentle (ha ha) GOP. This is a guy who called Bush a “son of a bitch”, and he had a great showing in a Republican district! Maybe calling a sumbitch a sumbitch isn’t such a bad strategy.
Posted by: Woody Mena at August 4, 2005 08:06 AMWoody -
Absolutely.
1: We need to say what we feel. Care needs to be taken to avoid coming off like a bunch of crazed assholes, but… We played it cautious and rational in 2004. (I will be a crazed asshole if that happens again!)
2: We need to provide something that will stick with voters in the booth – something they can use in making their decisions. Rational facts and proof of lies won’t cut it. I was thinking about this in the car on the way to work this morning… see if this makes sense.
Everyone knows what Kleenex are for. You debate whether they’re good or bad, their short comings… whatever. But, however you feel - every rational person knows why and when to use Kleenex.
However, when you go into the bathroom (the voting booth…???) and all you have are Kleenex, then all the arguments don’t matter. You use the Kleenex for whatever you need it for.
We’re (DEMs) are still arguing of the Kleenex. We need to be proving the TP.
Posted by: tony at August 4, 2005 08:34 AMI think what Woody said is right. I think that this should be a wake-up call to Republicans who think that there isn’t great dissatisfaction in their own territory with the peformance of the president and congress.
The Republicans are right to say that we’re still losing, and that celebrating these things is perhaps premature. But they’re wrong to believe that Democratic criticisms are a)costing them support, and b)gaining little traction against the Republican political support.
It’s a self-satisfying mantra, that maybe works against the less committed Democrats who worry about what the Republicans think about them. But their political strategies over the past few years have worn away at the uncommitted left, through a combination of the very real problems that people perceive this administration to have created, and the toughening effect of the vicious rhetoric on people who genuinely believe that their concerns and beliefs do not deserve that level or severity of criticism.
The reality of the problem in Iraq and elsewhere makes it difficult for Republicans to shake off criticisms as being purely partisan. Nobody’s naive enough to think the Democrats don’t have any interest in making political gains, but under current conditions, people would just as soon give them the chance to govern in the place of Republicans who are screwing up the job. It doesn’t help that Republicans blame the messengers out there for their problems, rather than their own damn selves. It’s obvious to people that this war was something the Republicans wanted from the beginning, and obvious to those in the know that the strategy Bush went in with-low on infantry, optimized for managing a transition rather than an occupation- that Bush got the strategy he wanted.
They did a lot of harm to themselves with the way they’ve conducted business, and instead of trying to undo that harm, they’re fighting the people who are wanting them to make up for their mistakes, or step aside for those who will.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at August 4, 2005 09:42 AMJean Schmidt stated that Paul Hachett lost in part because of his early remarks about the President
1)”He’s more of a danger to Americans than Osama Bin Ladden.”
2)”Sonofabitch!”
Then later tried to embrace the President when he saw his remarks angered the voters.
I disagree but this is what was said.
Check out what Newt Gingrich, architect of 1994 Republican revolution, had to say
It should serve as a wake-up call to Republicans, and I certainly take it very seriously in analyzing how the public mood evidences itself. Who is willing to show up and vote is different than who answers a public opinion poll. Clearly, there’s a pretty strong signal for Republicans thinking about 2006 that they need to do some very serious planning and not just assume that everything is going to be automatically okay.
I think this basically echoes what the Dems have been saying here. Not time to celebrate, but a meaningful development.
Posted by: Woody Mena at August 4, 2005 10:39 AMStephen & Bert:
I agree with your optimism, and believe me - I am on your side of things.
My main problem is that while we continue to erode the REPs standing as the ‘honest, family value, blue collar’ party… we have to offer up an alternative for people to grasp hold of.
I heard a great story on NPR about Echinacea. It was suppose to be the natural wonder-herb to help fight off colds. It doesn’t work. There have been quite a few studies that prove it has no effect - it’s been proven ineffective, but people still swear to it’s value. People will maintain their grasp on something (once they take hold of it) until it can be replaced with something better, and others that they trust suggest going with the new and improved.
Bush has completely screwed up everything he has touched… but is that more obvious now than it was a year ago? Has Bush become even worse than he was? No. We know more now that supports our knowledge about Bush… but the voters will continue to strain to keep their views of Bush intact until they have something significantly better to grab a hold of, and people tell them it’s OK to let go of Bush.
People are like irrational badgers… once they get a hold of something, they will not let go until it’s painfully obvious that they must let go. People will continue to support Bush until WE (DEMS) offer up something that really makes sense to them, not just shooting down the other side. Then we have to get busy and make sure people absorb it.
Posted by: tony at August 4, 2005 10:43 AMThis is only one district with a 29% voter turnout. Neither party should be using this as an indicator of how any other election will go.
Posted by: TheTraveler at August 4, 2005 10:46 AMtony,
There is something called the Placebo effect. Some people feel better just because they take a pill, even if it’s a sugar pill. The people who swear by Echinacea think they feel better because they believe they feel better, not because they are actually better. I think the same can be said for Bushites. It can certainly be said about Bush43 policies.
traveler,
Click your heels together and say after after me “There’s no place like home, there’s no place like home…” A sample is indicitive of the population, this isn’t baseball.
Dave -
I guess my point is that I am dying for something to vote for - not against. I thought Kerry was OK - in a weak kind of way, but I was still mostly voting against Bush. My baby’s diaper pail could’ve run for the White House and I would’ve probably voted for it. (But, then I guess you couldn’t have 2 from the same party running against each other.)
I know Bush sucks - I threw a party for about 500 people last year to raise money - “Put W Back in Crawford!” Party. He’s there right now, but that’s missing the point.
I want to show people who Democrats are - what we stand for - where we want the country to go. I can only go so far on hating someone else. I want to offer up the Donkey, not just the Ass.
Posted by: tony at August 4, 2005 02:09 PMDave,
Click your heels together and say after after me “There’s no place like home, there’s no place like home…” A sample is indicative of the population, this isn’t baseball.
Perhaps for if there’s another election in Ohio with similar candidates. But you can’t use the results from a small percentage of voters of one district in Ohio to predict what’s going to happen next year in different states. Hell, we don’t even know in most cases who’s going to be running or what they will stand for! The fact that both parties are trying to spin this one small election into a “we can win next year” message is a joke!
Considering that the midterms are over a year away, there are way too many variables for this election to be in any way indicative of their outcome.
The “low voter turnout” meme is getting on my nerves.
It’s an off season special election. 29% isn’t exactly lousy for the terms of this type of election.
I also disagree with those who say this isn’t some sort of indicator. It absolutely is. It’s an indication that Democrats can make the Republicans fight hard for seats they shouldn’t have to fight for. If the Republicans are dumping their resources into these alledgedly “strong” seats..they can’t dump them into other places.
The GOP won this race. There’s no disputing that and there’s no prize for coming in second. But there’s also a lot to be taken from this for Democrats, including the fact that if they continue to make races competitive they just might actually take a few of them.
Posted by: carla at August 4, 2005 04:10 PMtraveler,
I think the topic special election is indicative of the deep despair traditional republicans have with our current leadership. The disconnect of the RNC and Bush with the majority of Americans is starting to show, and this, IMO, is the tip of the iceburg. But, you’re right, it is early. Not too early for the first election ads, but early still…
tony,
I think Kerry is a good candidate. There are many appologists who think there was validity in the trashing he took from people like Swift Boat Liars for Bush et. al. Kerry did his duty and was a product of his times. He and McCain made up and were crucial in our progress with Viet Nam. His voting record and rationales are excellent as are many other of his fundamentals. You siad you would have voted for a diaper pail instead of W, I was saying I would vote for Al Sharpton over W (not that different between us :-) but, I was happy to vote for Kerry.
Posted by: Dave at August 4, 2005 04:10 PMDave,
http://www.congressmerge.com/onlinedb/cgi-bin/membervotes.cgi?&lang=&member=MAJR&site=congressmerge&address=&city=&state=&zipcode=&plusfour=&fullvotes=1
Not the best voting record I have seen.
How are they swift boat liars? What did they lie about? Just curious.
Posted by: Kevin at August 4, 2005 04:24 PM—-
How are they swift boat liars? What did they lie about? Just curious
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Please tell me you aren’t serious…??? This was settled almost a year ago. I don’t want to dig up the past and get all distracted, but seriously… they lied. Let’s just leave it at that.
Dave -
I agree with you that Kerry stood for many things I agree with - and the swift boat thing was just stupid… but he was a pretty weak national candidate. Clinton could read Pop Tart directions and make you feel like something had been accomplished… people could get behind him. Kerry just lacked the personal umph to get the White House for us.
Posted by: tony at August 4, 2005 05:08 PMI think the emphasis on personal charisma in national politics is overdone. We need people who can’t get away with stupid crap.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at August 4, 2005 06:12 PMWHEN BUSH WON THE ELECTION EVERYONE LOST AND SOME WITH THEIR SONS AND DAUGHTERS LIFE. YOUR BLAH..BLAH..BLAH…IS YOUR MENTALITY. BUT PEACE TO YOU ANY WAY. ANNIE
Posted by: Annie at August 4, 2005 08:14 PMtony,
I think you nailed why Kerry lost. He did not look presidential, he looked and sounded more like a goofy psychiatry professor. Bush looked like a good ol’ boy. Of course he proved to be vacuous ‘born with a spoon up his nose’ elitist.
Ya get what cha pay fo’….
Taking too much from this race and comparing it to Kerry in ‘04 does not account for what the media was ready to sell and the readiness of people to listen, post Rovegate, Coingate, Downing Street Memo revelation, and the continuing horror of Iraq.
The November election was but a snapshot taken during their campaign of fear.
From watching the campaign a little more than most here, I think, I know the great stuff left on the media’s cutting room floor and not shown. In order to validate their original primary choices, Dems chose not to see that Kerry was connecting, or that he was vocally against this war, before the vote, and during the campaign.
The primaries created a ridiculous litmus test of the IWR vote, and resentment carried from there. All the candidates were for the authorization and against the war.
The candidate had to appeal to a country, with the difficulty of getting elected with such diverse opinion of the war (which 51% approved of at that time). There is the constant ritual of eating our own and purist perfection. Many Dems were lazy and believed the GOP spin.
The GOP were worried in 2000 that a VP Kerry candidate would be too loose and unpredictable. Shows you what a little deconstruction can do.
Discounting fraud, he probably got it just right. I do know there was fraud and Kerry behind the scenes was not giving up finding it. Still no proof, discovery on the machines, or a whistleblower.
Come 2006 and 2008, I will most care about the votes getting counted and allowed, not tinkering on an issue. Do you really think Bush is more likable? See what good propaganda can do?
Posted by: Marjorie G at August 5, 2005 12:29 AMI voted for Hackett. From here in Cinti, I saw that the biggest obstacle for him is the lack of critical commentary in the media on local races and politicians. The local news blathers endlessly about the weather and sports scores, and the major local paper - The Cincinnati Enquirer - is the best example of hillbilly journalism I’ve ever seen… consistently issuing strong endorsements for Bush and wackos like Schmidt. Only those voters studious enough to find facts figured out what a nut Schmidt is.
As a religious conservative, Schmidt was nominated in the primary by Republivangelicals who were out to punish moderate Dewine since his father was one of the moderates who negotiated a deal with moderate Democrats over the federal judge appointments. Most Cincinnatians do not realize that she is a Republivangelical, rather than the traditional moderate Republican. Most of my Republican friends haven’t even heard of “Coingate” or other state-level scandals.
On that point, I’m discouraged. If we Cincinnatians elect the president of an anti-abortion group over an Iraq war veteran, how bad does it have to get?
Posted by: D at August 5, 2005 07:04 AMTony, yes I was serious and sorry I wasn’t up to date on that sort of thing a year ago. I’m new to taking part in political discussions, sorry to have annoyed you.
Posted by: Kevin at August 5, 2005 07:40 AMKevin,
Oh no - please don’t consider me annoyed if you were not up to date of the whole Swift Boat issue. I took your comments to be someone from the right trying (again) to argue whether or not they really lied about Kerry’s war record.
For the record: The swift boat were a group of Vietnam vets who also captained swift boats, like Kerry did in Vietnam. They had lots to say about Kerry not deserving his war medals, they floated the idea that Kerry faked his wounds to get his purple heart medals, etc. None of these swift boat men actually served directly with Kerry as they had eluded to, and their accusations were proven to be out-and-out lies. They were also funded solely by one of Bush’s largest single contributors.
Kind of pathetic way for a President to treat war heroes. (He did the same thing to McCain when McCain ran in the primaries against Bush in 2000.)
Posted by: tony at August 5, 2005 08:31 AMExcellent article, Carla.
If the Republicans are dumping their resources into these alledgedly “strong” seats..they can’t dump them into other places.
Absolutely right. Didn’t Dems outraise Reps in the last election? Doesn’t Sun Tzu warn against defending everywhere?
Hackett didn’t win, but he wasn’t even expected to come close (frankly, with that hair, I didn’t think he had a chance at all). There are plenty of closer races where Reps will have to spend more just to keep the seats they have.
Tony,
Thanks for the info, I really appreciate you updating me. I do have one other (probably stupid)question about that, how were they proven to be out and out lies?
Tony:
It is incorrect to say that none of the SwiftBoat vets served with Kerry.
Steve Gardner, also known as “The 10th Brother,” as in Band of Brothers is one of two members of Sen. John Kerry’s 12 Vietnam swift boat crew members who refused to stand with Kerry at the Democratic Convention. Many of the others served with Kerry, but not in the same boat. Some were Kerry’s superiors who should have some insight into his performance, despite not being in the boat (similar to a regional manager in Tampa knowing what happens in the St. Pete office as well.)
I’m not commenting on the accuracy or inaccuracy of the SwiftVets, but just correcting your comment.
Well - for one - they said that Kerry faked his was medals (one silver + one bronze.) The military has all the documentation that proves he earned these. To accuse a war time hero of this, you should have at least some proof… to just suggest it and leave it at that is pathetic.
Also, they stated that they had seen Kerry in Vietnam, but no one had actually been assigned near Kerry’s post.
They said that Kerry lied before Congress when Kerry stated all of the horrible things he had seen in Vietnam… but in the clip they presented of Kerry testifying before Congress, they edited out the preceding 20 seconds or so where Kerry stated “I have not seen these things, these are things that were recounted to me by those who did.”
Lies.
There are more, but I’ve forgotten many… A lot has happened between now and then.
Posted by: tony at August 5, 2005 10:52 AMSorry for the vague references to the facts… again it has been quite a while. However - I do recall that what they said - eye witness accounts that ‘presumably’ debunked Kerry’s war medals were what I remembered… saying that they remembered the event where he received his silver star… that they did not see any gun fire. (I’m assuming that they were suggesting that Kerry’s war wounds were self-inflecting?) So - I could very well be wrong about where they were stationed… but you should remember the gist of what went on with these guys.
Posted by: tony at August 5, 2005 10:57 AMThese were the same guys hired by Richard Nixon to debunk Kerry when he testified before congress in the 70’s. They made up stuff back then too. Whenever they were proved wrong, they acted as if nothing had happened, made something else up, and wiated to be debunked on that too…
The more things change, the more they remain the same.
Posted by: Dave at August 5, 2005 11:31 AMD,
I have two comments :
1. Please define Republivangelical
2. Does Cinci still have the reputation for serving great chili?
Posted by: steve smith at August 5, 2005 11:45 AMI think I’ve seen 2 bumper stickers that define Republivangelicals…
“One Nation under GOD… like it or not!”
“Bush can’t save you, but his God can. Elect him again!”
Posted by: tony at August 5, 2005 12:06 PMGreat definitions, I only wish it were possible for him to run again. Oh well, maybe Jeb will.
Posted by: steve smith at August 5, 2005 04:23 PMFrom my perspective, I’m not out to disinguosly puncture the Left’s glee. But I think it would be silly for the Left to place too much hope in a close defeat.
Joe,
Carla’s content would not have been of such length and detail, if there was nothing more to gleam than just election results. Democrats are basing their analysis on evidence and trends that confirm the consistent national polls, showing Hackett’s candidacy was energized by those discontent with the party in power.
The Republicans and the Right are aggressively dismissing it as an aberration or fluke - like a new Gallup survey.
Posted by: Bert M. Caradine at August 7, 2005 07:30 AMTony,
You really think I am sadistic?
Posted by: steve smith at August 7, 2005 09:56 AMIf you want either Bush in office again - yes I do think you are sadistic.
I know everyone get’s hyped on the hot-button issues, but it’s the dismantling of worker’s protection and environmental controls that worries me.
Just an example of where this could/will lead to:
There’s a really great lake near my house. It’s a great place to take the kids boating, or swimming. Anyway - 20 years ago, a company that made tranformers closed down and left town - and failed to clean up or take with them 30+ years of PCB sludge. Our country government watched it seep into the group water and a near by stream - and has slowly made it to the lake. You can no longer swim it - the people who use to fish there can no longer eat the fish. The lake is now a very pretty looking waste site. The the sludge will continue to spread, but now there’s no way to track it’s direction.
All this was allowed to happen because the previous company owner had friends in the Government. They never brought attention to this or any attempt to clean it up because that would create bad problems for their friend.
Yes - this happened with regulations in place. I use this example to show a typical business mind set. Local housing values to taking a big hit - we’ve lost one of our (communities) most prized possessions, and someone got to walk away free.
Posted by: tony at August 7, 2005 10:16 AMtony,
I am sorry about your lake.
Nevertheless when the facility was up and running my guess is that everyone was quite happy to have a job, local business probably flourished and everybody looked the other way when the possibility of evironmental problems was first noticed.
It then became easy to say someone knows somebody in government. Today it is even politically fashionable.
Posted by: steve smith at August 7, 2005 02:50 PMsteve,
So that makes it OK? And makes it OK to keep on doing the same thing?
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