Democrats & Liberals: Archives

July 27, 2005

50...who will give me 48...can I get a 43? How about a 30?

The latest approval ratings are out for the President. I don’t know how many different ways there are to say “free-fall”, but that’s what it looks like.

The Quinnipac Poll also says that Americans heavily favor Roe v Wade decision:

American voters support the Supreme Court's 1973 Roe v Wade decision 65 - 30 percent, the highest level of support in two years of national polls by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

This doesn't bode well for Bush, whose bread and butter supporters are heavily anti-choice. It also makes Bush's coattails for the 2006 election much more of a hindrance than a help.

A bellweather for the 2006 Congressional races may be next week in the form of Ohio's second congressional district, where Democratic candidate Major Paul Hackett could upset GOPer Jean Schmidt. OH-2 is historically a heavily Republican district so even a slim margin of victory for Schmidt would be considered a major problem for the GOP.

Stay tuned.

Posted by Carla Ryan at July 27, 2005 04:00 PM
Comments
Comment #68892

The opinions on Roe mean little.

The GOP can continue to get the rabid pro-life vote by talking big about abortion (you’ll notice that you’ve seen many suggestions for a federal amendment to stop gay marriage…but what about abortion?).

They know no big changes will come to Roe v. Wade, and I don’t think the party could sustain actually implementing changes if it did.

Posted by: mattLaw at July 27, 2005 04:40 PM
Comment #68893

Carla,

Are you insinuating that Bush is out of touch with mainstream America? Are you saying that the “Bible Thumping far Right” who still support Bush have an agenda based on prejudice and not spirituality?
No Way.
The FAR Right are so darn moral.
Bush is never wrong.

Posted by: Andre M. Hernandez at July 27, 2005 04:40 PM
Comment #68898

Andre,

No, she is saying that the atheistic far left is so immoral that they attempt to project their immorality onto anyone who disagrees with their anti-spirituality agenda.

The FAR Left is so devoid of character that they believe Bush is never correct.

Posted by: Kirk at July 27, 2005 04:49 PM
Comment #68899

Carla,

When the approval rating gets below a certain percentage or even to zero, is the President automatically removed and replaced?

If you could override the present practices for replacing a president, who would you like to see as President, right now not 2009.

Posted by: steve smith at July 27, 2005 04:49 PM
Comment #68901

Now, my post sounds just about as asinine as your post doesn’t it?

Posted by: Kirk at July 27, 2005 04:51 PM
Comment #68906

Bush’s approval ratings are not very high right now, but he is still President, seems to have nominated an excellent choice to the SCOTUS (meaning someone in the center enough to be approved, most likely by a strong margin), and continues to provide the agenda for the country.

That is good news for Republicans, though others can certainly find their meager rays of hope in the polls.

Posted by: joebagodonuts at July 27, 2005 05:02 PM
Comment #68907

Kirk,

I am sure you aware that the wrath of the board is about to descend on us.

Posted by: steve smith at July 27, 2005 05:03 PM
Comment #68915

American voters support the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v Wade decision 65 - 30 percent

Are they not still getting their message out? It must be the liberal media blocking them but…but Coulter says they have the media now - I’m so confused!

American Pundit posted an article a few days ago and there’s a quote in it that I think is relevant and bears repeating.

The trick never ages; the illusion never wears off. Vote to stop abortion; receive a rollback in capital gains taxes. Vote to make our country strong again; receive deindustrialization. Vote to screw those politically correct college professors; receive electricity deregulation. Vote to get government off our backs; receive conglomeration and monopoly everywhere from media to meatpacking.

Vote to stand tall against terrorists; receive Social Security privatization; Vote to strike a blow against elitism; receive a social order in which wealth is more concentrated than ever before in our lifetimes, in which workers have been stripped of power and CEOs are rewarded in a manner beyond imagining.

This is why I occasionally tune into talk radio. I love hearing the callers cry and bitch about the liberals are holding them down when their party controls congress and the white house.

Posted by: Nikita at July 27, 2005 05:13 PM
Comment #68920

Kirk,

I’m glad you are monitoring my lack of morality.
Are you trying to hurt my feelings?:(

I love it when you folks claim the Democrats,Liberals,Far Left are devoid of character. You know nothing about me yet you judge me.
Read the Bible,only God has the right to judge.
I know that hating Gays,Womens reproductive rights and attending church on Sunday automatically makes the Far Right these holier than thou, spiritual people, but I, like my free thinking friends who don’t judge others and care about their fellow man, feel spiritual enough(Liberally Spiritual). I know I’ll burn for this.
Unless you want to do me a favor when you’re done passing judgement over me and ask God to forgive me for all the wrong that I do(That somehow you have knowledge of).

Posted by: Andre M. Hernandez at July 27, 2005 05:35 PM
Comment #68922

The only time a POTUS is replaced is when he (or she) resigns, is impeached, dies or is incapable of discharging the office.

Polls don’t mean squat. Ever. Period. Remember “exit” polls? If polls were the “be all and end all”, Kerry would be president right now.

Have you ever noticed that polls tout this or that but give you no actual facts?

For example…when was the last time you saw a poll in a news story that answered the following questions:

1.) What were the ages of those polled?
2.) What was the sex (percentage) of those polled?
3.) What was the “urban” (percentage) of those polled versus the “non-urban”?
4.) What was the racial percentages of those polled?
5.) What percentage of those contacted hung up in the pollster’s face?
6.) What percentage of those polled were having a “good” day?
7.) What states were included in the poll?
8.) What time was the poll conducted?
9.) What percentage of males (and females) conducted the poll?
10.) Did the pollster conducting the survey sound “excited” or “bland”?

These are only a few of the questions that pollsters never, never answer.

Do you think the poll results would be the same if they polled New York in one poll and Des Moines in another? Boston in one and Nashville in another?

I never ever pay any attention whatsoever to polls…and once you stop and think about the myriad of variables that go into polls…you won’t either.

But that’s not the point of this posting, is it? It’s the slipping “popularity” of the POTUS. In the past 20 years, we have had presidents that gave attention to and made policy according to polls. We have had presidents that ignored the polls. Apparently, there are some here that consider this new “revelation” as the presidential equivalent of farting in a crowded elevator.

Well, if you pay attention to polls, then good. You have your point. But if you’re like me and pay no attention to and give no weight to polls, then we’ll see 20 years down the road and see what history has to say.

Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 05:39 PM
Comment #68929

For example…when was the last time you saw a poll in a news story that answered the following questions:

1.) What were the ages of those polled?
2.) What was the sex (percentage) of those polled?
3.) What was the “urban” (percentage) of those polled versus the “non-urban”?
4.) What was the racial percentages of those polled?
5.) What percentage of those contacted hung up in the pollster’s face?
6.) What percentage of those polled were having a “good” day?
7.) What states were included in the poll?
8.) What time was the poll conducted?
9.) What percentage of males (and females) conducted the poll?
10.) Did the pollster conducting the survey sound “excited” or “bland”?

I provided a link to the poll and the polling service. Feel free to tiptoe through their data info at will.

Since it’s likely they ask the same question every time and this poll seems to be matching up fairly with others..then it’s unlikely that they’re terribly far off.

The question you might ask yourself is, “why do so many people think Bush sucks?”

Just a thought.

Posted by: carla at July 27, 2005 06:06 PM
Comment #68931

Andre,

Go back and look at my second post made immediately after the first. You will see that I am simply trying to point out your broad-brush generalizations that are at once incorrect and have no argumentative value.

In no way am I monitoring your character.

I love it when you folks claim the Democrats,Liberals,Far Left are devoid of character.

And yet you claim that the Far Right has an agenda based on prejudice.

but I, like my free thinking friends who don’t judge others and care about their fellow man, feel spiritual enough(Liberally Spiritual

Yet you call the Far Right “Bible Thumpers”, say that I hate gays, women’s reproductive rights and insinuate that we are “so darn moral” that we blind to an inept leader.

You see, I was not judging you only your message. Not once did I use the word you in my previous post yet I find “you” used 8 times in your post.

Posted by: Kirk at July 27, 2005 06:08 PM
Comment #68934

Kirk~

Don’t you love it when the pot calls the kettle black?
I laughed so hard when I read his reply to you over an issue he started w/ his generalities!

Posted by: Traci at July 27, 2005 06:28 PM
Comment #68936

Carla,

Or, conversly, from a Democrat viewpoint…why do 30% of the people “like” what Bush is doing?

That is, of course, IF I believed in polls.

Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 06:33 PM
Comment #68939

—-
No, she is saying that the atheistic far left is so immoral that they attempt to project their immorality onto anyone who disagrees with their anti-spirituality agenda.

The FAR Left is so devoid of character that they believe Bush is never correct.
—-

Can someone please tell me how to get this 6 6 6 off of my forehead. I’ve tried bleach… 409… it’s just won’t come off. it’s been there ever since I got my voter registration card…

Help please… the neighbors are lighting their torches!

Posted by: tony at July 27, 2005 06:47 PM
Comment #68940

Carla,

OK…let’s take a look at your poll.

From July 21 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 920 registered voters nationwide.

“Nationwide”? Let’s see what “nationwide” actually means…

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

Hmmmm…let’s see…

New York……..Blue State
New Jersey……Blue State
Connecticut…..Blue State
Pennsylvania….Blue State
Florida………Red State (BARELY)

Can we ALL see where this is going?

Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 06:51 PM
Comment #68941

It’s kind of silly to write off polls completely.

Go to pollingreport.com. It shows you who did the poll, the exact question asked and choices offered, usually the age (if it wasn’t random), states that the poll was national, how many were polled, and the margin of error.

I suggest taking a statistics course. Political parties, and even the White House, monitor national polls. Plus or minus a few points, polls are generally useful in determining the attitude of the country.

Completely ignoring them or assuming that the information they offer is false doesn’t make sense.

Posted by: mattLaw at July 27, 2005 06:51 PM
Comment #68942

BTW…None…zero…zip…nada…all whole numbers less than one…of my other questions were answered.

Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 06:53 PM
Comment #68943

Ummm…Jim?

and nationwide

What does “nationwide” mean to you?

LOTS of different groups perform national polls. Pollingreport.com lists all of them.

Posted by: mattLaw at July 27, 2005 06:54 PM
Comment #68944
BTW…None…zero…zip…nada…all whole numbers less than one…of my other questions were answered.

I’m not convinced that you understand how a ‘random’ poll works…

Posted by: mattLaw at July 27, 2005 06:55 PM
Comment #68947

mattLaw,

When you see things like I pointed out above…how can you NOT question the accuracy of a poll?

Look, I took Statistics in college. Hated it…but took it and aced it. It did not instill any confidence whatsoever in polling data. Too many variables to be accurate unless you have a MASSIVE base of data from which to pull. I really don’t consider 920 people “massive”…do you?

As far as polls are concerned…I refer you to what I said earlier…

Remember “exit” polls? If polls were the “be all and end all”, Kerry would be president right now.
Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 07:01 PM
Comment #68949
Look, I took Statistics in college. Hated it…but took it and aced it. It did not instill any confidence whatsoever in polling data. Too many variables to be accurate unless you have a MASSIVE base of data from which to pull. I really don’t consider 920 people “massive”…do you?

Most national polls are performed with a little over 1,000 responses.

Surely you remember from college that this is where the margin of error comes into play. It doesn’t mean, “the possibility that we screwed up.” It mean, statistically, the numbers we came up with accurately represent the opinions of the entire set, plus or minus the error margin (usually 3% if the sample was 1,008 people in the U.S.).

Sure, one poll means little. Most of these national polls (such as approval ratings for the president) are done on a weekly or biweekly basis, and the trends in those various polls can be compared.

I’ve yet to see a poll suggesting that a majority of Americans feels Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided. As for Iraq, the numbers of those who still support the war, etc. have been steadily dropping.

Posted by: mattLaw at July 27, 2005 07:08 PM
Comment #68950

matt…

How many people polled fell into the “and nationwide” category? Does this poll tell you that?

No.

How many people polled fell into the 4 blue state and 1 (barely) red state category? Does this poll tell you?

No.

Was it 919 people from blue states and 1 from “nationwide”?

I don’t know…do you?

No.

Why? Because none of my questions above were answered.

Let polling companies disclose ALL their polling data…demographics, geographical regions, times, etc., and that will go a long way to giving me a little confidence.

Otherwise, I have absolutely no reason to believe any of it.

Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 07:09 PM
Comment #68952

—-
Look, I took Statistics in college. Hated it…but took it and aced it. It did not instill any confidence whatsoever in polling data. Too many variables to be accurate unless you have a MASSIVE base of data from which to pull. I really don’t consider 920 people “massive”…do you?
___
Do you remember ‘statistical significance’? It’s basically the concept that states that at a certain level of sampling, you will reach a basic consensus that will be maintained from that point one, no matter how large the sampling pool gets. Of course, there will always be slight changes in percentages, but that is considered ‘statistically insignificant.’

In the 2 states - Florida and Ohio, that Kerry won by exit polls but lost - it was a difference that stats would call insignificant. In an election - it matters. As a group consensus, these polls are spot on. (These were also the only states that used the Diabold voting machines – as far as I know.)

To me - it’s a trend and the American public has proven itself to be amazingly fickle. However - it does represent a steady decline for Bush, which I think is a direct result of his lack of understanding (for the time being) of what the American public thinks of his pet projects. There could also be a bit of discontent due to the White House’s continued scandals and continued erosion his the pre-war Iraq intelligence ‘facade.’

Posted by: tony at July 27, 2005 07:12 PM
Comment #68954

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. June 8-12, 2005. N=1,464 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

“In 1973 the Roe versus Wade decision established a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe versus Wade decision, or not?”
From: 6/8-12/05 and 1/03
Yes No Unsure
30 63 7
31 62 7

Posted by: mattLaw at July 27, 2005 07:18 PM
Comment #68955
Otherwise, I have absolutely no reason to believe any of it.

That’s why you compare several different polls conducted by different groups.

Posted by: mattLaw at July 27, 2005 07:20 PM
Comment #68957

matt…

Yes, polling data is usually gleaned weekly from as few as 1,000 respondants or less.

But to say that the margin of error is plus or minus 3 or 4% when the poll discloses that the bulk of the respondants is in one certain geographical location is nothing less than absurd.

Does New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania have the same mindset…values…morals…day to day experiences as people from Idaho, Montana, Arkansas and Virginia?

No.

Where are the “warning labels”? In this case, it certainly appears that the margin of error depends on the geographic region. Perhaps instead of saying “this is how the nation feels” about this it should say that “this is how the Northeastern seaboard” feels. This is certainly where the bias in this poll lies.

Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 07:23 PM
Comment #68960

I think you’re misreading.

Where does it state that their “national” polls are only conducted in the states in which they perform statewide polls?

Even if that were true (and I doubt it is) several OTHER GROUPS perform national polls, and you will find their results to be comparable.

Posted by: mattLaw at July 27, 2005 07:28 PM
Comment #68962
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

Jim’s confusing me. Perhaps I don’t get it. Who besides me interpreted the above to mean that Quinnipiac is a polling entity that conducts polls to shed light on the opinions of the natives in 5 different states and the nation as a whole? ie: random sampling within the said states and random sampling of the entire nation?

Posted by: Nikita at July 27, 2005 07:32 PM
Comment #68963

I have absolutely no doubt that the bulk of America feels that Roe V Wade should not be overturned. It has been the “law of the land” for quite some time now, and most people I talk to either say that they believe in a woman’s right to have access to an abortive medical proceedure, or they say that they would never have an abortion but would not deny someone else that right.

I also have no doubt that POTUS’s approval ratings are downtrending…and I would not dispute that fact.

HOWEVER…I do find a supposedly “legitimate” polling entity’s admitted geographical bias odious at best and deceitful at worst.

Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 07:32 PM
Comment #68965

The only way a poll makes any difference in my eyes is this:

1) Were the people polled, registered voters?
2) If they are, do they actually vote or just carry their card around?
Race, demographics, age…..who the hell cares if they don’t vote!
This still leaves a margin of error though considering a lot of people must have been telling lies coming out of the voting booths(exit polls were indeed wrong)!

Posted by: Traci at July 27, 2005 07:40 PM
Comment #68966

matt,

Precisely!!!

Where does it state that their “national” polls are only conducted in the states in which they perform statewide polls?

Where is their data?
They don’t say.
Where did they poll?
They don’t say.
How many were women?
They don’t say.
How many were men?
They don’t say.
How many were ethnic minority?
They don’t say.
What time of afternoon or night was this poll conducted?
They don’t say.

As long as they don’t give up their data, as long as they say, “Well, 920 people said this…” with no breakdown whatsoever, as long as they continue to not divulge their sources…exactly what reason do I have to believe them? What reason have they given me?

None.

Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 07:40 PM
Comment #68968
As long as they don’t give up their data, as long as they say, “Well, 920 people said this…” with no breakdown whatsoever, as long as they continue to not divulge their sources…exactly what reason do I have to believe them? What reason have they given me?

The characteristics of the individual people don’t matter. It’s a RANDOM poll!

Posted by: mattLaw at July 27, 2005 07:46 PM
Comment #68971

I can understand drawing questions about a certain poll - however, every poll I’ve seen has the same result. Even if this poll was conducted in blue states only, the statistical difference between the % of favorable support of Bush in the election and support now is statistically significant.

The fact that it is a random poll has statistical relavance no matter what state you poll in.

(hey mattLaw - how’s it going? )

Posted by: tony at July 27, 2005 08:01 PM
Comment #68978

“Nationwide”? Let’s see what “nationwide” actually means…

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.
Hmmmm…let’s see…

New York……..Blue State
New Jersey……Blue State
Connecticut…..Blue State
Pennsylvania….Blue State
Florida………Red State (BARELY)

Can we ALL see where this is going?

Actually, Pennsylvania has some very conservative leanings. They have two Republican senators..one moderate and one uber conservative. Connecticut also has some very conservative stripes.

But the other problem is that this Quinnipac poll isn’t especially out of line with other polls. Bush has been on a serious downhill approval ratings slide almost since his reelection.


Posted by: carla at July 27, 2005 08:33 PM
Comment #68979

matt,

As long as it IS a random poll.

But what is their criteria for randomness?

Is it a list of numbers that have responded in the past?

They don’t say.

Does a computer generate random numbers for them?

They don’t say.

Is the random number from a list (ie., Publisher’s Clearing House)?

They don’t say.

If it was a computer that generated the random numbers, were those random numbers in the same city? Precinct? Block? Street?

They don’t say.

What they do say is, “Here’s the numbers with absolutely no information about how we got them or who we got them from or where they were or anything else but you better believe these are the by God correct numbers so you better believe them.”

Let me put it another way…

What if the poll had said that Bush had a 95% approval rating from this poll.

Would you still believe it?

Posted by: Jim T at July 27, 2005 08:50 PM
Comment #68981

The poll really is not surprising when one considers that most Americans are not qualified to make such a determination on the war. That is what the poll is REALLY about. Americans obtain most there data on the war based on a media who only reposts the negative events that take place in Iraq. The leadership in Iraq is more than optimistic concerning the war and there opinion is the one that really matters. Polls are dubious at best anyhow….

Posted by: Curmudgeon-at-large at July 27, 2005 09:06 PM
Comment #68984

Excuse me - we spend $300B on our money and expend 1800 American lives, and the only opinion that matters are Iraqi’s???

That rich.

You’ve followed the extreme of Bush login to the omission your own country.

Posted by: tony at July 27, 2005 09:24 PM
Comment #68985

sorry - that should’ve neem logic (damn these fingers!!!) not login

Posted by: tony at July 27, 2005 09:27 PM
Comment #68988

mattLaw,

I’ve been debating many on the Right lately, who are engaging in the same type of parsing and will ignorance being displayed here. They continue to question things like the breakdown of the sample groups, to further the erroneous assumption that those who voted for Bush in November do not now regret it.

Posted by: Bert M. Caradine at July 27, 2005 09:51 PM
Comment #68990

‘Connecticut also has some very conservative stripes.’

Although we did execute 1 (and only 1) serial killer after 25 years on death row, I would not call this state conservative. As a lifelong resident, I can tell you the people in this state are as lib as they come.

Posted by: Peter at July 27, 2005 09:59 PM
Comment #68994

People say a lot of things on polls that they don’t carry out later.

All during the most recent election season, polls indicated that a “generic democrat” could defeat President Bush. Unfortunately, there was no generic democrat running and the President could beat the real ones. The only polls that really count are the ones they take on the first Tuesdays in November.

I studied marketing research and I bet I could postulate lots of reasons not to believe the polls, but I won’t do that because I am inclined not to care about them. The president can’t run again. He is safe from the polls and can do as he pleases.

The approval ratings of the president don’t mean much to anybody else. Clinton had high approval ratings and he lost seats in the Congress. Bush had much lower ratings and he added to the Republican majorities.

You know that Bush doesn’t pay much attention to the polls. I know that you think he should moderate his opinions (i.e. move to the left) but he doesn’t have to and he probably won’t. He has no incentive to change. There is nothing he can do to make the lefties like him. If you can’t join them, beat them.

Posted by: jack at July 27, 2005 10:35 PM
Comment #69007

‘Connecticut also has some very conservative stripes.’

Although we did execute 1 (and only 1) serial killer after 25 years on death row, I would not call this state conservative. As a lifelong resident, I can tell you the people in this state are as lib as they come.

I guess “lib” is a subjective term.

3 of Connecticut’s 5 House seats are Republican as is one of it’s Senate seats. It’s Democratic representative is almost as conservative as my GOP senator from Oregon.

I think if Connecticut was as “lib as they come” there’d be a lot more Democrats in their representation.

Posted by: carla at July 28, 2005 01:21 AM
Comment #69008

It’s Democratic representative is almost as conservative as my GOP senator from Oregon.

My bad. I should have said “It’s Democratic senator…”


Posted by: carla at July 28, 2005 01:22 AM
Comment #69015

Curmudgeon-at-large

Americans obtain most there data on the war based on a media who only reposts the negative events that take place in Iraq.

I could not agree more. It is the Chicken Little Syndrome played to the hilt. As long as we are only seeing the body count and aftermath of explosions on the evening news numbers will continue to slip.

The media rarely reports on the positive events taking place in Iraq. When you get 10 negative stories for every 1 positive you begin to think that everything is going to Hell in a hand basket. If the media would report the information included in the State Departments Weekly Report the polling decline would be reversed.

http://www.export.gov/iraq/pdf/state_wklyrpt_072005.pdf

Don’t get me wrong, I am in no way suggesting that the deaths of our brave men and women in uniform should not be reported. They most definitely should. We should also see their hard work and efforts to bring about the positive changes taking place in Iraq.

I guess that just as 1000 planes landing safely is not news only the one that crashes is, so it is that hundreds of schools or hospitals opened is not news only the ones that are blown up by the terrorists.

Posted by: Kirk at July 28, 2005 02:56 AM
Comment #69026
When the approval rating gets below a certain percentage or even to zero, is the President automatically removed and replaced?

Ha! A decent man would probably resign if his numbers got that low. He obviously doesn’t represent America at that point.

Kirk, I looked through that State Dept. document. What’s the good news? I didn’t see anywhere that the Iraqi militias had disarmed. I didn’t see that the number of insurgent attacks had decreased. I didn’t see that reconstruction efforts made major gains. I didn’t see that the Iraqi constitution guaranteed women’s rights.

Maybe you just get more excited than I do by the fact that, “The Human Resources Advisor from USAID’s partner worked with TNA staff members to draft job descriptions for each of the TNA staff directors and senior managers. A background paper was written to explain each portion of the proposed structure.” Yipee!

Posted by: American Pundit at July 28, 2005 05:12 AM
Comment #69028

BTW, Carla, good catch on Paul Hackett. Most of these guys don’t bother to follow links, so let me spell it out.

Hackett is the first of the Opertion Iraqi Freedom vets to return home and get into politics. He’s running as a Democrat.

Posted by: American Pundit at July 28, 2005 05:20 AM
Comment #69035

To the poll deniers:

A “random” opinion poll is not a study into the stochastic properties of an independent process. These polls randomly select people, gather historicaly relevent data from them that assigns the “samples” to historicaly validated subgroups. Then using the historicaly validated behaviors of those subgroups and other data characterizing those subgroups, the pollers extend the sample results into the populations “opinions”. These polls don’t stand alone and have become amazingly accurate.

What I do hear from the “polls mean nothing” argument is what I hear from the ID (anti-evolution) crowd; nothing of substance. Anyone ever see the movie North Dallas 40? There’s a great line where the protagonist says “Every time I call it a game you call it a business and every time I call it a business you call it a game.” That’s the arguments from the Bush supporters. When the polls are on their side, the polls are great. etc…

Posted by: Dave at July 28, 2005 08:25 AM
Comment #69038

Kirk -

I agree, I think we should focus more on the happy side of war. I heard Hallmark had produced a line of cards for a whole host of special occasions… and FTP has the brightly colored, exploding vase gift pack (when you care to send the very best!)

War is a time of death and destruction. Last time I checked - water, electricity, medical care, food and shelter were all extremely scarce and faulty at best.

Maybe if they at least played a happy, upbeat soundtrack under the 6 o’clock news footage, it might help…???

Posted by: tony at July 28, 2005 08:35 AM
Comment #69049

Kirk,

I disagree with both the far right and far left.
It was a sad attempt at humor.(My first post)
I don’t give a rats %$# about polls. I don’t want this administration in the White House. It has nothing to do with party affiliation or conservative vs. liberal. This is one of the worst presidents in U.S. history.

Posted by: Andre M. Hernandez at July 28, 2005 09:21 AM
Comment #69084

Andre,

I think we’re together on the poll idea. Polls are polls are polls are polls.

In the business I’m in…the media…polls and surveys can be warped and turned inside out to mean anything you want them to mean…and usually are.

As far as Bush being the worst POTUS, I’m going to wait about 20 years for that judgement. Things that are done now take on a whole new light 20 years down the road.

Truman was a hero for dropping the A bomb and saving an estimated 10 million American lives.
20 years later…he’s a villan for dropping that same A bomb.

Johnson was a hero for the “Great Society” package he pushed through Congress and for defending the “poor people” in South Viet Nam.
30 years later, after all but one of the “Great Society” programs had failed and 60,000 dead boys in Viet Nam, he was a villan.

Nixon was a villan for Watergate…and still is today. But 20 years later, after getting us out of Viet Nam, normalizing relations with mainland China and opening up Russia with detente (which ushered in glasnost)…I’m not so sure about the villan status.

Regan was hated and villified while he was POTUS. Remember “Ronnie Ray Guns”? But here, 20 years later…he’s voted as one of the best presidents ever.

We’ll have to wait another 10 or 15 years before we can look back at the Clinton presidency with the benefit of hindsight.

Bush the worst POTUS ever? That’s what they said about Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Regan and Clinton when they were in office.

I’ll wait and see, thank you.

Posted by: Jim T at July 28, 2005 11:30 AM
Comment #69089

Jim T

What do you do with Media? I’m more in the film and video prod. side of things… Just curious…

Posted by: tony at July 28, 2005 11:46 AM
Comment #69095

Jim,

Can I have a pair of those glasses you’re wearing? Maybe Bush and Reagan won’t look so bad.

Posted by: Dave at July 28, 2005 12:00 PM
Comment #69107

Tony,

I’m the Operations Manager for 5 radio stations right now ( do you know how much stuff breaks/burns up/blows up/gets hit by lightning/gets abused and broken by announcers? Absolutely NO rest for the wicked!) and I’ve been doing Radio/TV/Newspaper since 1968.

Dave,

Sure! No problem! They’re rose colored “coke bottle” glasses with HUGE 20 year rear-view mirrors.

Posted by: Jim T at July 28, 2005 12:32 PM
Comment #69149

Jim T

I never had issues with my gear until I started hiring employees. I tried renting my gear once in a while as well… same thing.

Had someone leave a boom pole unattatended - up right and it feel.. “Sorry” + $800.

Got to love this business.

Posted by: tony at July 28, 2005 02:49 PM
Comment #69152
I could not agree more. It is the Chicken Little Syndrome played to the hilt. As long as we are only seeing the body count and aftermath of explosions on the evening news numbers will continue to slip.

You guys are sort of glossing over the fact that Americans have seen the Administration’s pre-war justifications go up in smoke.

Surely that doesn’t have a thing to do with the dropping numbers in relation to the war, right?

Posted by: mattLaw at July 28, 2005 02:54 PM
Comment #69185

“Hackett is the first of the Opertion Iraqi Freedom vets to return home and get into politics. He’s running as a Democrat.”

Well what are we waiting for, we obviosly need to register Dem! I have two acquaintnances who returned from Iraq a few months ago, they are Republicans. Point please??

Posted by: Cumudgeon-at-large at July 28, 2005 04:56 PM
Comment #69190
Hackett is the first of the Opertion Iraqi Freedom vets to return home and get into politics. He’s running as a Democrat.

Great. Maybe he’ll become the token Kerry to be beat by an incumbent Republican in the 2040 election.

Want to know why Republican troops haven’t gotten into politics yet? They’re still in Iraq. Every veteran I know laughs his ass off whenever he sees a “Veterans for Kerry” bumper sticker. See how many Democrats you can find among combat troops.

Posted by: Gandhi at July 28, 2005 05:19 PM
Comment #69192
Want to know why Republican troops haven’t gotten into politics yet? They’re still in Iraq. Every veteran I know laughs his ass off whenever he sees a “Veterans for Kerry” bumper sticker. See how many Democrats you can find among combat troops.

There are people who vote democratic at every level of the military.

To trivialize their role is quite petty of you.

Posted by: mattLaw at July 28, 2005 05:23 PM
Comment #69203
To trivialize [the role of Democrats in the military] is quite petty of you.

I said nothing to make little of the Democrats who are in the military. But they certainly aren’t present there in the same proportion they are present in politics, and certainly not among combat troops. I have enough friends among NH combat troops to confirm this for you. If you like, I can even get them to do a survey for you from their units.

It is in fact the Democrats who are trivializing Republican troops who are serving, by insisting that they should enlist in larger numbers, when they are already doing more than their proportionate role.

Posted by: Gandhi at July 28, 2005 06:00 PM
Comment #69204
I said nothing to make little of the Democrats who are in the military. But they certainly aren’t present there in the same proportion they are present in politics, and certainly not among combat troops. I have enough friends among NH combat troops to confirm this for you. If you like, I can even get them to do a survey for you from their units.

Your anecdotal evidence would prove little…amazingly, I too know many of those who are in or have been in the military…and they’re liberals!

Little is known about the voting patterns of combat troops, though there are certainly more Republicans in the upper ranks of the military…I’m not denying that, at all.

A good number of politicians in Washington severed in the military, from both parties.

Posted by: mattLaw at July 28, 2005 06:09 PM
Comment #69216

In opinion polls conducted before the 2004 election, 72% of troops said they would vote Bush over Kerry. The split was probably closer 40 years ago because of the draft.

Posted by: Gandhi at July 28, 2005 06:44 PM
Comment #69230

Ghandee,

So what? We all know the Average Republican is Below average intelligence. Does that mean the average soldier is as well?

Posted by: Dave2 at July 28, 2005 08:12 PM
Comment #69269
To trivialize their role is quite petty of you.

That’s typical. Republicans love the idea of the brave soldier defending our nation, but when it comes time to equip ‘em with body armor or take care of ‘em after they come home with pieces missing, it’s always “we can’t afford that AND tax cuts that favor the rich.”

As soon as you mention a specific combat vet like Hackett or McCain or Wes Clark, all the Republican soldier-haters climb screaming out of the woodwork.

Posted by: American Pundit at July 28, 2005 11:41 PM
Comment #69274

I’m not even going to respond to Dave2’s comment. As for McCain and Wes Clark, I have nothing but respect for the two of them; that’s one Republican’s opinion. (I do disagree with some of their policies, but I’d support a McCain presidential bid). I don’t know anything about Hackett. Kerry left Vietnam early, and voted against body armor - and then complained that our soldiers were under-equipped.

Posted by: Gandhi at July 29, 2005 12:08 AM
Comment #69276
Kerry left Vietnam early, and voted against body armor - and then complained that our soldiers were under-equipped.

He voted against the final version because it removed an element from the original bill that would have funded it.

I would probably vote for McCain as well.

Posted by: mattLaw at July 29, 2005 12:10 AM
Comment #69320

In 2000 I might have voted for McCain, it would certainly have been a more civil campaign in any case. Depending on the opponent in 2008, I might be willing to vote McCain again.

I think it is interesting to note that despite Sen McCain being a Republican, he now has, in his own words, a great “friendship with John Kerry” yet all reports are still that he truely dislikes Bush43.

Posted by: Dave at July 29, 2005 08:54 AM
Comment #69459

Pundit,

What’s the good news?

Maybe you are just more pessimistic than me because to acknowledge that good things are taking place in Iraq is an acknowledgement that just maybe what the US and our 27 allies are doing there is right.

Tony,

I agree, I think we should focus more on the happy side of war.

Who said anything about a happy side of war? You can choose to drink in all the six o’clock news has to offer and choose to ignore the improvements taking place in Iraq if you wish. It is obvious that most Americans are like you and either choose to ignore them for political reasons or are too lazy to expend the effort to find what the media will not report.

Since you expend the effort to post here, I hope that you do not fall into the too lazy camp. Just in case let me lay out some of the improvements listed in the weekly report for you and Pundit.

1) Large weapons cache seized ? including 1000 mortar rounds, 25 mortar firing systems, 150 rockets, 450 RPG rounds, 26 RPG launchers, numerous IED?s and rifles.

2) 93,800 Ministry of Interior and 78,500 Ministry of Defense troops trained and equipped to date.

3) Electrical production of 112,200 MWh compared to pre-war peak of approximately 95,000 MWh.

4) 104 Water Treatment programs completed to date with another 90 underway

5) 164,000 new landline phone subscribers in addition to 2.8 million cell phone subscribers when cell phone service pre-war was nearly non-existent.

6) 8 new Primary Health Care Facilities built with another 150 under construction.

7) Both Malaria and Cholera cases reported have been reduced by over 92%.

8) 3,065 schools have been rehabilitated with 776 currently under rehabilitation and another 71 new schools under construction.

9) International Reconstruction Fund received $197.9 million in new pledges and disbursements.

If you were to look at past reports you would see other improvements that have taken place months ago such as the dredging of the Umm Qasr Port. The silt in the port had closed 17 of the 21 berths and limited the remaining 4 to ships with a draft of 4 meters. All 21 are now open to 5 meter draft ships.

The Sweet Water Canal cleared of sediment. The clearing of 149 mile waterway also included refurbishment of 13 water treatment plants and the repair of the RZero pumping station that sends water from the canal’s reservoir through a network of pipelines leading to residential, commercial and agricultural users. Completion of the project improves the quality and nearly doubles the quantity of fresh, potable water produced for the 1.75 million of the Basrah region.

The July 25 Weekly Update reports that 20 insurgents were stopped coming into Iraq from Iran with 228 pounds of TNT and 240 pounds of C4. Wonder how long it will take the networks to report this one?

Posted by: Kirk at July 29, 2005 03:40 PM
Comment #69482

Kirk,

It’s great that we’ve put all this money into improving an infrastructure that we did such a good job of destroying. Of course, the insurgents have picked up where we left off, destroying the public works as we fix them, enabling Halliburton to keep making the profits as we, the taxpayer, foot the bill and our soldiers keep getting maimed and killed.

Such happy news I can hardly contain myself! And that new constitution they’re writing. What’s it’s header? “We, the Islamic Republic of Iraq, holders of Sharia law”? That’s really democracy in action.

Half empty/half full doesn’t apply to 10% with a big hole in the bottom.

Posted by: Dave at July 29, 2005 06:27 PM
Comment #69486

Dave,

The majority of the work that we are having to do in Iraq was not caused by our guided munitions but by years of neglect by Sadam.

Rather than spending on infrastructure, food and medicine for his people, Sadam was using his money to bribe Kofi’s son and his buddies. Sadam made millions from the oil for food program. Unfortunately for the Iraqi people he pocketed all of it rather than keep the country running.

Posted by: Kirk at July 29, 2005 06:40 PM
Comment #69490

Kirk -

I’d like to see some links or proof of this
—-
The majority of the work that we are having to do in Iraq was not caused by our guided munitions but by years of neglect by Sadam.
—-

I know Iraq was in bad shape - but rolling black outs, complete lack of water in major areas (not to mention oil pipelines bursting into flame…) Rememeber - at the end of the first year of reconstruction, 10% of the money allocated had be put to use.

Posted by: tony at July 29, 2005 07:02 PM
Comment #69506

Kirk, that’s a nice list. And it’s not bad (I guess) for four years of work in a country where insurgents have driven out all the major international aid organizations, the UN, and most of our allies, to almost get to where Iraqis were before we invaded.

It’s hard to get too attached to those water treatment plants though, because the insurgents just blow them up on opening day.

Those accomplishments are all in danger of collapse because of the basic lack of security in the Sunni heartland. If the Pentagon hadn’t dragged its feet getting Iraqi security forces trained, we’d be in much better shape. If we had disarmed or neutralized the militias, we’d be on easy street. If we had coopted the Sunnis, rather than continuing along without them, we’d have an Iraq that’s not on the verge of balkanization.

Seriously Kirk. We lost Iraq. There were no WMD, no meaningful terrorist connections, we failed to create a free-market liberal democracy, the democracy domino effect never materialized (in fact, the mess in Iraq is the reason many reformers in other countries are backing off), and if Iraq was supposed to deal a blow to global terrorism, we failed there too.

The only achievement we can possibly be proud of is the regime change - and I’m not proud at all of Iraq’s new fundamentalist Islamic regime. What we have now is exactly what we would have had if we had just pulled out in December 03.

By precipitously putting Iraqis in charge of their country, we lost all leverage in shaping that country into something to be proud of. President Bush created a pro-Iran, anti-American, Muslim nation where one didn’t exist before. Hip, hip, hooray.

How did we get on this subject anyways? Oh, yeah. Bush’s dismal approval ratings stemming from his misleadership in Iraq.

Posted by: American Pundit at July 29, 2005 10:14 PM
Comment #69508

Sad, isn’t it?
I feel sorry for the people who voted for Bush. They can’t say “I didn’t vote for the man who lied and brought such pain and destruction to our world.” He makes OBL look like an amature.

Posted by: Dave at July 29, 2005 11:08 PM
Comment #69511

Dave,

I can say I voted for Bush and based on what I have seen put up by the Democratic party I would vote for him again if he could run.

Posted by: Kirk at July 30, 2005 12:11 AM
Comment #69513

Tony,

Here are quotes taken from the USAID Sectoral Consultation discussing the lack of maintenance during Sadam?s reign.

Pundit,

To suggest that we have worked to almost get to where Iraqis were before we invaded. is simply false. Report after report discuss the disarray of the Iraqi infrastructure under Sadam. For instance wastewater treatment facilities had not been in operation for 20 years.


Electricity

Immediate post-war, when the fighting seemed to have a lull a least, it was about 204 megawatts that was operating in Iraq, actually operating. The rest of it was either out of commission for any number of reasons—lack of fuel, no maintenance, no operators in the site, looting; but that was not operating.

And the biggest problem has been well enunciated all throughout the last 18 months. The infrastructure suffered from tremendous lack of repair and maintenance over the 25 years of Saddam’s reign. The shortage of spare parts has been well known.
Seaport
At the seaport, the seaport—Umm Qasr is a very large seaport. It has 21 berths. It’s one of the largest seaports in that part of the world. But when we arrived there, it was so silted, you could not bring ships in except at high tide
The operations was done, like I said, by SSA Marine, not by Bechtel. Bechtel did all the reconstruction work. They have a—the grain handling facilities are there—for all the major grain comes into Iraq. The silos are operable. They were not operable before. They had not been used in years. They were full of dust and dirt. There were no fences for security.
Water / Waste Water
As Jim mentioned, there was very little investment, either in capital, infrastructure or in O&M during the last 20, 25 years. As a result of that, Iraq could not supply potable water to its growing population, and waste water treatment plants fell into total disrepair.
A portion of one of those plants is completed and in June of this year, Iraq began treating waste water for the first time in over 20 years. Now, those three treatment plants should be completed, fully completed, by early 2005.
Posted by: Kirk at July 30, 2005 01:19 AM
Comment #69526

So, Kirk. Are proud of the way Iraq turned out? Is a pro-Iranian, anti-American, Islamic state founded on strict Shariah religious law what you had in mind in 2002?

And don’t come back with “We need to wait before making a judgement.” Bullshit. Iraqis are in charge of their country now. Other than throwing good money after bad and training security forces so we can didi mao, our work there is done.

The Iraqi people freely voted the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) into power. The dominant Dawa Party and SCIRI ran on a platform of strict Islamic fundamentalism and deference to Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani - guidance by Islamic clerics is even enshrined in their new constitution. Just like Iran.

It was no surprise to me that Iran supported Bush’s re-election. They got a new province. Is that what you wanted? Another America-hating Iran?

Posted by: American Pundit at July 30, 2005 11:06 AM
Comment #69530

If you blow up someone’s home, and then start bragging about getting the electricity turned back on (after 2 years) it’s plays pretty hollow.

One major issue at play here - when Saddam was in power, people were not actively attacking the infrastructure. As well, neither before nor after represent anything but failure. My problem is the amount of time - not a before and after view of Iraq. Bush forced a re-vote on the resolution to make possible the use force in Iraq to revise the $18B a gift not a loan and then - after that effort - he failed to use the bulk of that money for almost 2 years.


Bush focused the war efforts on the oil production and the search for WMD. He’s main comment at the start of the invasion: DO NOT BURN THE OIL FIELDS! Nothing about carrying off Saddam’s unprotected conventional weapons stashes… no mention of people messing with those WMDs (but maybe he knew they didn’t exist, so …) As far as the infrastructure - in disrepair or not - we obliterated it all during the invasion.

We had a very short period of time when we had the hearts of the Iraqi people… then of course we flew the American flag over the toppled statue of Saddam - whoops… the Iraqi flag. We did nothing to make the citizens lives better at the start. Things were left wide open for the terrorists organizations (and anyone else opposed to the western way of life) to come it -point to us as occupiers only interested in their oil… BAM. Insurgence. We also left open the huge stashed on weapons that are now being used to kill…

Bush completely blew the Iraqi invasion from start till now. The few good things this late in the game won’t cut it.

Thank you - though - for the research and information. It helps point out that things in Iraq were not good. Some things might be better than before… but can you see where that means little to their overall situation, and the to it’s impact on the news (and our views of Iraq.)

Posted by: tony at July 30, 2005 11:10 AM
Comment #69549

AP / Tony,

Do I think things have gone swimmingly in Iraq? Absolutely not. There have been mistakes made and more will be made in the future. As with anything else in life you do what you think is right at the time and move on.

Neither do I think that it is all hell in a hand basket like most of you on the left. Unfortunately “perception is reality” and the vast majority of people’s perception is shaped by what the see on TV or read in the Newspaper. What they are seeing and reading is only half the story.

How long would people watch Monday Night Football if they only televised the portion of the game when the home team has the ball? Or how many people would continue to eat at McDonalds if only half the burgers had condiments?

Yet you and the majority of Americans are willing to accept and in some cases pray for only half the story being told in the news.

When Sadam was in power people were not attacking the infrastructure because they the murderous thugs were in control. Once that control was taken from them they resort to terrorism and attacks against their own people in many cases to try and regain that power.

AP, sorry but we do have to wait to see the final outcome. I must admit that I would rather have seen a much more open less theocratic government that it appears will finally take shape in Iraq. But, why would you deny the Iraqi people the right that you have to choose to vote for the type of government you live under? Are you better than the Iraqi people? Are they not as worthy as you to have a say in their government?

Reforms take time, it will take several months or possibly years to see the final results of what we are currently doing in Iraq. However, dividends have already been paid in the region through elections in Saudia Arabia, Lybia halting weapons programs.

Posted by: Kirk at July 30, 2005 02:30 PM
Comment #69553

Kirk -

Why do you insist on taking posts and twisting them to the extreme? I am simply saying that things have not gone well in Iraq due to poor planning, and overly optomostic expectations. You blame the press for being unrealistic and only reporting the bad things. Can’t you equally say that Bush only comments on things that are positive and consistently spins things towards that direction? Niether are an intelligent way of looking at things.

I would pose a simple question to you: how are you so well connected to things in Iraq? You obviously see things quite different than what you see on the news, I’m just curios as to how.

I have no interest as to the outcome of this specific discussion - I have been opposed to the war from the beginning, and the sooner it is over, the better things will be - and the less our debt will be. Some have suggested this, but I find the idea that DEMS want things to go badly in Iraq to harm Bush’s political future obsurd.

The point of this thread is Bush’s dropping poll numbers… who is surprised to hear this?

Posted by: tony at July 30, 2005 03:17 PM
Comment #69557

Tony,

How am I so connected on Iraq? Because I take the time and put forth the effort to search out the full story on Iraq. I do not simply take at face value what is spoon fed to us on the 6 o’clock news.

So, you are absolutely correct that I see things a lot different than what I see on the news. Yes, there are terrible things going on in Iraq and I say a prayer for each and every soldier that I hear or read about being killed. I also pray for the safety of all the troops in Iraq as well as the president and military leaders wisdom in prosecuting the war.

I do not think (as some that I have heard making claims from the right)that the Dems want us to fail in Iraq. What I do think is that they are more than happy to have the major media continue of reporting that excludes 95% of any and all positive occurances.

Again perception is reality and most peoples perception is based on the major media as they will not put forth the effort to find all sides of an issue.


Posted by: Kirk at July 30, 2005 04:18 PM
Comment #69650
I must admit that I would rather have seen a much more open less theocratic government that it appears will finally take shape in Iraq. But, why would you deny the Iraqi people the right that you have to choose to vote for the type of government you live under?

Ahh… So you’re saying: Sure, it’s a pro-Iranian, anti-American, fundamentalist Islamic regime, but it’s OUR pro-Iranian, anti-American, fundamentalist Islamic regime.

It’s funny the lengths some parents will go through to avoid admitting they have an ugly baby.

Posted by: American Pundit at July 31, 2005 11:00 PM