Democrats & Liberals: Archives

May 30, 2005

Non!

France has voted against the new European Constitution? Why? What does this mean?

Although some analyzed the run up to the vote in terms of a reaction to America, the general interpretation I’m getting here in Europe (I moved from St. Louis, Missouri to Hamburg, Germany a few weeks ago) is that the motivation for the vote wasn’t America; it was about France and Europe.

The electorate were very informed, with copies of the Constitution sent to every house and the issue discussed in the media for months. Both supporters of the Constitution and the victorious opposition claimed that their position would save French jobs, culture, and social welfare. In the end, 'Non' won with 55%.

The primary motivation seems to be the same as it usually is in any big vote: personal financial interest. There's significant fear in Western Europe about the expansion of the EU. A widespread belief is that low-wage earners from the East will swarm over Western Europe taking jobs. The symbol of this fear in France is the mythical 'Polish Plumber'.

There was also a segment of the 'Non' vote that opposed the constitution out of concern that the constitution would replace the protective economic system with an American-style, more competitive economic system. Interestingly, this desire to keep social welfare in place instead of less regulation is considered a reaction against Liberalism. Here, the welfare state is Conservative and stronger economic competition is Liberal, the opposite of how they are labeled in the United States.

A further level of financial concern is the fear that poor immigrants will bankrupt the social welfare system, costing French citizens the significant social safety net they enjoy.

A related concern was about losing the "French" character of the country in face of a rising tide of Muslim immigrants. That issue will likely be preeminent in the impending referendum in the Netherlands, too. Living in Hamburg and riding my bicycle around the city, I've seen several neighborhoods in which Arabic and Turkish are more common on storefronts than is German. Fear of these changes in previously homogeneous societies is a strong force.

Finally, some people used the referendum as a vote against the current government.

So, what's the overall point? The French vote was a vote against change. France has high unemployment and is becoming less "French" all the time. Whatever the actual effect of the Constitution would have been, the people decided they didn't want to risk the change.

What should America do? I don't think there's much we should do. I read that a Bush Administration official commented off the record that they would condemn the Constitution if they thought it would help it get passed by an anti-Bush electorate. Of course, a unified Europe would have some wonderful effects for America, some negative effects for America, and many unintended consequences with unknown effect. I think we just need to watch these events play out. Personally, I like the idea of a unified Europe. However, I don't know if this Constitution itself was a good document. Maybe this will force a re-write that would result in a better union.

BTW, here's an interesting map that shows which regions voted for and against the Constitution. Basically, Paris, Strasbourg, Lyon and Brittany voted in favor, and the rest voted against.

Posted by LawnBoy at May 30, 2005 05:48 PM
Comments
Comment #57438

Lawnboy, from what I am reading, your following remarks are the key to understanding French rejection of being absorbed into the EU:

A further level of financial concern is the fear that poor immigrants will bankrupt the social welfare system, costing French citizens the significant social safety net they enjoy.

A related concern was about losing the “French” character of the country in face of a rising tide of Muslim immigrants.

The French are very adverse to some particular changes, the greatest of which is anything that would alter their language and cultural way of life - which by and large, they love as it is, I have heard so called experts on talk shows say.

Posted by: David R. Remer at May 30, 2005 07:10 PM
Comment #57442

You guys should read what the RightWing Nuts are calling it. Everything from a hidden Support for the Iraq War to an Act of God is being blasted across the Conservative Universe.

Posted by: Aldous at May 30, 2005 08:28 PM
Comment #57445

Given the falling birthrates also in Poland, the Polish plumber won’t be a threat to the French manhood much longer. In fact, there will soon be a shortage of Polish plumbers and those who secure one’s service will feel themselves blessed and hold their pipes in high esteem whenever they compare them to those of their neighbors repaired by the run of the mill French plumbers.

Seriously, a French citizen called Phillipe wrote a good response to the earlier post on being French. He explained a lot of the conflicting feelings.

You are right that the election was not about the U.S. primarily, although we were featured more prominently than we might expect in the debate.

This was very much a vote against Chirac and the ruling elites. One thing that this election highlights is the almost universal unpopularity of leaders in the world’s large democracies. Since it seems to be the case among countries of diverse political orientations, different types of democracies, various cultures and disparate histories, I wonder what it is about democracies in the 21st Century that makes people dissatisfied.

Posted by: jack at May 30, 2005 08:35 PM
Comment #57458

Why is it that when I see the Republican website everything is hunky dory. And when I seek your website A lot of your paragraphs are just about illegibal.

Why is it that on CSPAN almost always their hair is impecable, yet on CSPAN 2 a lot of time the Doos are kind of out of place.
It makes a difference.
I am a democrat and just trying to help. I couldn’t believe how incredibly biased the tv and radio was. Everything was for Bush.
I always thought TV couldn’t be biased in a Public Election. We need a dynamic and peaceful leader again. Since Bush has been in the White House the people’s attitudes are aggressive and hateful. I guess maybe it’s just the haves and the have mores who are happy right now. Our Nation is divided. I hope we don’t end up like Brazil. Thanks for reading my commments.

Posted by: JD at May 30, 2005 11:43 PM
Comment #57460

JD,

Our Nation is divided.

You say that like it’s a bad thing. I would say that differing opinions is what keeps this nation from falling apart. As soon as the left loses its say in the government things will go to hell. Fortunately that will never happen :)

Posted by: Zeek at May 30, 2005 11:52 PM
Comment #57464

Jack, an answer to your question is the topic of an article I wrote some time ago here at WatchBlog about specialization, freedom, and societal disintegration in a pattern that was evident with the the Ancient Greek civilization, Senatorial Rome, through to today.

Specialization of labor in relatively free democratic style societies leads to loss of common experience, loss of common values, loss of family unity across generations, loss of intergenerational respect, and loss of common language.

It is time to dust that old thesis off and rewrite it for a fresh look at the topic. It is truly amazing the EU Constitution got as far as it did.

You know what the longest intact unchanged surviving culture on the face of the Earth is? The aboriginal tribe in the Amazon Forest just spared from the logging industry last week. Why? They are not separated as families by specialization of labor, they share work, play, birth and death all in one small close proximity to the village, the young have the benefit of the oral tradition of the great grandparents and grandparents, and to be shunned by the tribe is to die - alone (or at the very least outcast from the tribe). Their society has survived in harmony, unchanged, fully functional for all its members needs for more centuries than any other on Earth.

Posted by: David R. Remer at May 31, 2005 12:49 AM
Comment #57466

Zeek, that is counterintuitive. A society that holds together is a society that holds common. To the extent that loss of common experience, common values, common respect among all its members, and common language occur in a society, that society disintegrates. Loses integrity.

Posted by: David R. Remer at May 31, 2005 12:53 AM
Comment #57468
Why is it that when I see the Republican website everything is hunky dory. And when I seek your website A lot of your paragraphs are just about illegibal.

JD, when you say “your website,” what do you mean. Do you mean my website? The blue column on WatchBlog? The DNC website?

Posted by: LawnBoy at May 31, 2005 02:05 AM
Comment #57469
Seriously, a French citizen called Phillipe wrote a good response to the earlier post on being French. He explained a lot of the conflicting feelings.

Yea, he said a lot of what I’ve been hearing and reading. In particular:

In one hand, we have what seems the logical next step for EU, moving to a more politic and democratic level than the actual free market bureaucracy-driven union.
It sounds easy to consider this a big step forward, knowing from where we came and how amazing this whole EU idea could materialized in so short time period since! In other hand, you have a 200 pages long document, so-called “constitution”, pretty much empty of what frenchs are used to find in a Constitution (shared big values, democratic organisation, Human Universal Rights).
Instead, it’s looks like a compilation of all previous treaties, bloated with economics focus, without any, well, “Grand Vision” :-).

That is, the idea of a more unifed Europe is good, but that doesn’t mean this particular document is the right way to get there.

Posted by: LawnBoy at May 31, 2005 02:09 AM
Comment #57472

Excellent article, LawnBoy.

Ya know, this seems to be a great opportunity for Britain to promote itself from “bridge between Europe and the US” to dominant player in Europe.

All the countries who are really excited about the EU constitution are excited because of the free-market, capitalist aspects. They’re basically Third Way countries who want the kind of post-Thatcher mix of industrial privatization, economic freedom, and social… well, security, for lack of another term off the top of my head, that Britain and Blair are striving for. Britain could do an end run around France and Germany and win big off this.

One other quick thought: it’s a prime example of the dangers of direct democracy. The French voted NO on the basis of racist demagoguery, economic scare tactics, and dissatisfaction with Chirac - none of which really have anything to do with the EU Constitution itself.

I’m constantly amazed at the efficacy of our system of representative democracy. More often than not, issues get decided on their merit rather than out of mob manipulation, fear, and demagogeury.

Posted by: American Pundit at May 31, 2005 04:59 AM
Comment #57520

I’ve often stated that the EU would be rejected by France unless they were allowed to control it.

Once it became obivous that they can’t, they want no part of it.
The EU would have led them away from socialism and they would fight to the death to preserve that!
Well, perhaps not fight to the death, but they will whine and wave a white flag..furiously in defiance.

Posted by: Beagle at May 31, 2005 11:44 AM
Comment #57528

Enough of the “whine” talk…that French joke is so old!!! Passe, if you will.

Innovation is a hallmark of American culture, so for pete-sake, somebody get innovative and say something productive. Or for that matter, somebody get innovative and come up with better jokes about the French. If you can’t do that, then don’t say anything at all.

On a more serious note, a “Non” for the EU Constitution is not a death knoll for the EU. This just means that some things need to be ironed out alittle more, which might be for the better. Every nation is grappling with the new realities of the day, what with globalization and the like. Europe is simply in its “Articles of Confederation” stage, and everybody who’s taken U.S. History can remember what a whopping success that was, but it led to something better and more effective. So too with this EU Constitution.

Posted by: R.C. at May 31, 2005 12:29 PM
Comment #57530

I will give you this, Beagle…the French do aim high, and in geo-political terms, dominance of the EU would lend itself to France’s political and diplomatic position in the World Scene. It is strategically insightful. Then again, it’s important to remember that ALL NATIONS seek to enhance their own geo-political position and status in the world by any means, whether through political, diplomatic, religious, social, economic, or military means.

Posted by: R.C. at May 31, 2005 12:36 PM
Comment #57537

R.C.,

Point well taken about the french jokes, however in this one small context, perhaps humor was a lil better than posting how I really feel about them in serious terms.

Blame my Father for that, I’ve never been there.
I can only offer my opinion based on his after storming normandy at Ohomaha beach and getting a bronze and silver star and a purple heart on that day, and the the reception and the thanks he recieved after they were liberated.

I’ll leave it there, because if I posted HIS opinions of the french I’d get booted from this site.

Posted by: Beagle at May 31, 2005 01:09 PM
Comment #57555

R.C.-

I’ll say something positive about the French (I was there just last week).

Chateau Neuf du Pape

Roquefort fromage

The TGV (high speed train)

mosse au chocolat, creme brule, and all the other deserts.

The French have great food, great wine, 35 hour work weeks, about two months worth of vacations per year, free healthcare, free retirement plans, and many other great deals if you are a national. Who would vote for change as long as they are not the one footing the bill?

Posted by: George in SC at May 31, 2005 03:14 PM
Comment #57589
The French have great food, great wine, 35 hour work weeks, about two months worth of vacations per year, free healthcare, free retirement plans, and many other great deals if you are a national. Who would vote for change as long as they are not the one footing the bill?

I don’t know how I would have voted if I were French, but it’s clear that they, the French taxpayers, are the ones footing the bill. And it will become a harder bill to foot in coming years as more and more French workers retire. They only recently decided to bump up the workweek, allowing 43 hours per week with overtime. More concessions to reality will occur, however much wine is imbibed.

Yet, I admire them. They weren’t willing to sign on to what sounds like an uninspiring hodgepodge of a constitution. In the end, maybe there will be an improved version and a more representative political system. Until then, let them eat brie and enjoy their way of life.

The French voted NO on the basis of racist demagoguery, economic scare tactics, and dissatisfaction with Chirac - none of which really have anything to do with the EU Constitution itself.

I’m guessing this is an oversimplication. We should ask how many of us would today vote for a United States of North and South America, with or without a good constitution.

Posted by: Reed Sanders at May 31, 2005 08:07 PM
Comment #57593

David,

A society that holds together is a society that holds common.

Again, I disagree. Common opinion makes for a comfortable environment (because everyone agrees!) but not an environment of growth and learning.

To the extent that loss of common experience, common values, common respect among all its members, and common language occur in a society, that society disintegrates.

I agree that there should be a common respect amoung all members of society, but that doesn’t mean that everyone be of uniform opinion. I disagree with many of the people on this blog but I respect them nonetheless, from my own account I would say that agreement is not requisite to respect. As for common language, yeah, I can see how that would be practical (not that I was arguing that particular point anyways).

However, on values, I disagree once more. First, it is not even realistic to expect a country as large and diverse as the U.S. to ever come to a consensus on values. Second, if we did, it would only be a sign that everyone is equal in society.

Posted by: Zeek at May 31, 2005 09:40 PM
Comment #57633

Zeek -

A society that holds together is a society that holds common.

Again, I disagree. Common opinion makes for a comfortable environment (because everyone agrees!) but not an environment of growth and learning.

Does the word ANARCHY have any meaning to you? Disagree all you want, but the obvious fact is that all organizations from the family unit up to complete societies have one common defining element, things in common. Without things in common, there are no groups, and without groups, there are no societies. So, your comment is in error on its face, Zeek.

I agree that there should be a common respect amoung all members of society, but that doesn’t mean that everyone be of uniform opinion.

Correct, but I never said a society should be all of the same opinion. They must however be of the same opinion on many issues or cease to be. National Defense being just one, the value of paper called money being another. And of course, a host of others, like language (remember the Tower of Babyl?).

However, on values, I disagree once more. First, it is not even realistic to expect a country as large and diverse as the U.S. to ever come to a consensus on values. Second, if we did, it would only be a sign that everyone is equal in society.

Values is what our Civil War and Revolutionary War were fought over, and the Civil Rights movement. Lack of core values in a group, leads to war within the group, which threatens the integrity of the group. The greater the dissent on core values the greater the liklihood of disintegration of the society into warring camps.

Wars can be fought with weapons or words, but, solutions to common problems are not forthcoming in a society which is at war over common core values. War becomes the solution overriding all others. History is very clear about this.

Posted by: David R. Remer at June 1, 2005 08:59 AM
Comment #57749

Economically it sure is helping the bond market. Interest rates are dropping (longterm) and the dollar is rising. Even more foreigners are purchasing US Government securities and driving our interest rates down. These foreigners are evidently individual investors chasing yield.

The recent vote could have a significant effect our economy by making our investments more attractive. Indirectly it could give an additional boost to the housing and stock markets as well.

It looks like we may continue in the moderate growth low inflation environment for some time to come. Today Dallas Fed’s Richard Fisher hinted that interest-rate increases were nearing an end. If that is the case, we could be in for some great financial times in the next few years.

Craig

Posted by: Craig Holmes at June 1, 2005 09:42 PM
Comment #57799
…and the dollar is rising.

Against the Euro.

The recent vote could have a significant effect our economy by making our investments more attractive.

Maybe, but the fundamentals haven’t changed. The EU is still the EU. If central banks have suddenly grown wary of the Euro (which I doubt), it doesn’t mean they’re going to stop diversifying.

Posted by: American Pundit at June 2, 2005 10:37 AM
Comment #57880

David,

Does the word ANARCHY have any meaning to you?

Anarchy means without government or rule. People can disagree and still have governments (in case you haven’t noticed).

Disagree all you want, but the obvious fact is that all organizations from the family unit up to complete societies have one common defining element, things in common.

We all inadvertintly have things in common with one another, which is why I never said you should disagree with everyone all the time. However, families and organizations have commonalities within themselves, but they have differences with other groups/organizations.

Without things in common, there are no groups, and without groups, there are no societies. So, your comment is in error on its face, Zeek.

Lol, David, I never said disagreeing with everyone was a good thing. I do, however, stand by my statement that everyone in America being of same thought and opinion would be a bad thing.

Lack of core values in a group, leads to war within the group, which threatens the integrity of the group.

You can’t construct good core values without first arguing over what those core values are. And, even after the majority has established its core values there will still be people who disagree, which is good. Those people will keep the majority from forgetting how they arrived at certain places and prevent them from taking things for granted.

And of course, a host of others, like language (remember the Tower of Babyl?).

No, I was either too young or not alive to remember that… feel free to fill me in :)

Posted by: Zeek at June 2, 2005 05:26 PM
Comment #57960

This is what I was talking about in my first post. From The Financial Times today (remember liberal is conservative over there):

European leaders may have appealed for “serenity” following the collapse of the European Union constitution but Tony Blair of Britain and Jacques Chirac of France are squaring up for a political and personal battle over the future direction of Europe.

…The debate over Europe’s economic direction has been fuelled by the French No vote, and Mr Chirac could make it difficult for Mr Blair to see through his liberal reforms. But the British believe the economic tide is flowing in their direction, with supporters including many eastern European nations, plus to a greater or lesser extent the Nordic states, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Ireland.

Blair has a real chance to make Europe look a lot more like Britain.

BTW, I scooped the FT by four days on this. I should get paid for being so good.

Posted by: American Pundit at June 3, 2005 07:44 AM