April 29, 2005
Governing Iraq
Iraqi Prime Minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, just got his new government approved. Sort of. Two deputy Prime Minister posts and five ministries including defense and oil are still vacant. And only 185 assembly members out of 275 even showed up to vote. Ugly and unrepresentative as it is, though, they have a freely elected government.
Unsurprisingly, President Bush's one-time golden boy, Iranian spy, and ally of the Shiite insurgent al-Sadr, Ahmad Chalabi, got a top spot as deputy Prime Minister and acting oil minister. He's still a wanted for bank fraud and embezzlement in Jordan, so he probably won't be making any goodwill tours.
Also unsurprisingly, Chalabi's nephew - not Salem who runs the Iraqi International Law Group (your one stop shop for investing foreign capital in the "new Iraq") and is one of the lawyers trying Saddam Hussein, but one of Chalabi's other nephews - Ali, got the finance ministry.
Poor Rumsfeld. He's already been racking up frequent flyer miles, begging the Iraqi government to stop already with the nepotism, cronyism, graft, and corruption - oh, and also the government sanctioned extra-judicial killings, political detainments, and torture. And it doesn't look like it'll get much better anytime soon.
The Sunni's got screwed - again, as expected. Jaafari did include four token Sunnis in the cabinet, but they got insignificant positions like Minister of Tourism (LOL!!!) after Shiites objected to giving them the defense ministry and human rights ministry because the Sunni candidates once belonged to Saddam's Baath Party. Heh. As if Jaafari didn't know full well putting ex-Baathists in charge of human rights and defense wouldn't be controversial.
The one surprise I did have was finding that former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi decided to boycott the government because his secular Iraq List Party was only offered two ministries instead of four. I'm sure you'll hear more from him in the future. He's scrappy, just like Chalabi.
Well, it all looks like I predicted it would. The Shiites and Kurds have an understanding, the Sunnis are screwed, and fundamentalists from Islamist organizations like Dawa, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and al-Sadr's bunch are in firm control.
There are seven women in Jaafari's cabinet, but since that's an outrage in the eyes of Allah and prominent women are getting picked-off one by one (Lamia Abed Khadouri al-Sakri being only the latest of about forty high-profile Iraqi women assassinated), that probably won't last.
All in all, I'm not too impressed with the new Iraqi government's chances of becoming a liberal, free-market society. It'll be interesting to see what kind of constitution they come up with.
“after Shiites objected to giving them the defense ministry and human rights ministry”
You think they should have been placed in these posts? Sounds like the UN.
“There are seven women in Jaafari’s cabinet,…”
Weren’t there already women in prominent positions when Saddam was in power?
“…the Sunnis are screwed…”
They did absolutely nothing to cause their own problems?
Those in the Middle East can’t even agree on what ‘Allah’ means. They kill each other in the ‘Name of Allah’. I don’t know how anyone thinks we can understand it -
It is understandable why the Sunni’s are not being given more powerful positions right now - what they did and what they are doing has an effect on that.
Do you think the violence would subside if more Sunni’s were in control? Wouldn’t this cause other groups to rise up like they are?
Now… the Sadr thing is beyond me - I thought his ass was supposed to be in jail? Wasn’t there a warrant out for him for murder? It really surprises me that he is still walking around. Maybe there is a ‘good’ reason for it that we just don’t know yet. There better be.
dawn:
I am not really surprised you did not know about Sadr. Fox News has kept Iraq at the absolute minimum since the Elections. FYI, Chalabi and his Son are also under Warrants of Arrest.
There have just been 15 Coordinated Bombings in Iraq today. However, it is a good day for the Coalition regardless since only Iraqis were killed in the explosions.
Freedom Marches On…..
Posted by: Aldous at April 29, 2005 10:57 AMYou think they should have been placed in these posts?
Did I say that?
Do you think the violence would subside if more Sunni’s were in control?
As long as Iraq is a democracy, the Sunnis will never again be in control. But it’s a fact that Sunnis are underrepresented in the assembly. And Kurds and, to a lesser extent, Shiites are overrepresented.
Now… the Sadr thing is beyond me - I thought his ass was supposed to be in jail?
Behind Grand Ayatolla Sistani, al-Sadr is the most popular Shiite religious leader in Iraq. Allawi put out a warrant for his arrest, but nobody executed it. Al-Sadr has a large well-trained militia and controls several key cities, including Basra, as I pointed out previously.
And that criminal Chalabi - the guy who gave Cheney all the bogus WMD info and then shrugged it off saying the disinformation served it’s purpose - is not only running free, but actually in a #2 position in the Iraqi government. Go figure.
Maybe there is a ‘good’ reason for it that we just don’t know yet.
How often are Bush-fans going to get burned by that “the President must have secret knowledge” wishful thinking before they learn? :)
Posted by: American Pundit at April 29, 2005 10:57 AMHe He He.
You are wasting your time, AP. There is no definition for “Failure” in the Right’s Vocabulary. The Green Zone could be overrun tommorrow and the only thing you will ever hear is, “Spreading Freedom is HARD”. Or maybe, “But Saddam killed ga-zillions more Iraqis than us”. Or my personal favorite, “Having Our Troops There Keeps Al Queda from Coming HERE”.
Again. Watch Fox News. As long as no GI’s are killed, who cares if a few Iraqis croaked?
Posted by: Aldous at April 29, 2005 11:09 AMThe cronyism, nepotism, graft, and corruption I totally expected. Even the predominance of Islamic fundamentalists in the government was no surprise (watch for the shock the Bush-fans get when the government creates the Islamic religious police to enforce Sharia law).
But the thing I really found surprising is the government sanctioned extra-judicial killings, political detainments, and torture. It’ll be interesting to see when or if the new government makes an attempt to stop it. New governments - especially when besieged by insurgents in the capitol city - typically use a heavy hand with their opponents, political, religious and otherwise. The state must be preserved at all costs, right?
“Well, it all looks like I predicted it would.”
It’s true, it’s all been unfolding exactly as you said it would. I’m very impressed by that — because as much as I’ve tried to grasp the Iraqi situation, it’s simply unfathomable to me. I’ve learned more about these things by reading your posts than anywhere else, because you’ve really been nailing it.
Good article, and well done, AP.
The New US Ambassador(yes, hurting judges is wrong and bad) to the Canadas and
Canada’s New Embassy Building in Berlin
On April 29, 2005, Canada has officially opened a new building designed to house Canada’s Embassy in Berlin, Germany. Located in the heart of the city, the Embassy has been designed and built to reflect Germany ’s importance to Canada as a G8 partner and a central player in the European Union.
>> … message on the opening of the Embassy building by Ambassador Dubois
US looking to German system as possible model for Iraqi constitutional structure
Bernard Hibbitts at 12:49 PM | Post comments [0]
[JURIST] A senior US State Department envoy said Tuesday after meetings with German officials that the German federal experience could provide a useful model for a permanent Iraqi constitution. Citing the German structure of multiple laender [maps and profiles] with considerable autonomy united in a federal union, Richard Jones [archived State Department profile], former US ambassador to Lebanon and now US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s top advisor on Iraq, suggested that the German arrangement could provide the basis for a stable Iraqi nation state with different regions under a single federal government. The new Iraqi National Assembly under the leadership of a government the formation of which is still incomplete [JURIST report] is charged under the interim Iraqi constitution with drafting a permanent charter for Iraq by August 15, less than 4 months from now. Reuters has more.
There are problems in IRAQ.
It’s often said that there’s more
terrorism now than ever. That’s true.
But, it might be simply because we shook the
hornet’s nest, and the terrorists
were already there all along, planning, and waiting for the best opportunities.
If IRAQ is a failure, does that mean it was a mistake ? Probably.
If it succeeds, does that mean it was worth it? Probably not.
Was is unrealistic to believe IRAQ could ever
become a democracy? Probably.
Sometimes, it seems like it would be better to
take a wait-and-see position, and wait until we
are attacked, and then retaliate overwhelmingly.
And in the mean time, try to stay ahead in
technology and create better defense systems,
and better and faster strike forces.
Yes, it will be interesting to see the final outcome.
Hopefully, no one (especially an American) is hoping it will fail just so they can say “I told you so!”.
Setting up a government, even a democracy, is the easy part. Making it work and run fairly, effectively and efficiently without revolution or civil war,is the hard part. And that seems to only occur in societies of a relatively homogenous population with diverse opportunities for gainful employment and resources to tap for economic growth, which Iraq does not have, yet. If and when they ever will have remains to be seen, but, I wouldn’t bet any money it.
At some point, factions in Iraq are going to align with factions outside Iraq to bolster their minority voice. And that won’t be good for stability or democracy. Before we invaded it was apparent stability and civil order would be lost as the price of invasion. Will free elections and the democratic process provide sufficient incentives for the majority of Iraqi people to continue as a sovereign unified nation? Only time will tell. It is one helluva gamble, and a monumental failure if those incentives are not sufficient.
Posted by: David R. Remer at April 29, 2005 01:46 PMAP,
Good post! Well, it appears at least one portion of your prediction is turning out to be more likely than mine. I thought the Iraqi government would be secular & relatively free of graft. But it is appearing more & more likely the fundamentalist Shia will have their way. As for corruption, the CPA listened to & backed Chalabi, and Chalabi’s allies are deeply entrenched in the Iraqi Finance Ministry. Whoops!
OSI
“It’s often said that there’s more
terrorism now than ever. That’s true.
But, it might be simply because we shook the
hornet’s nest, and the terrorists
were already there all along, planning, and waiting for the best opportunities.”
I don’t think so. The insurgents are Iraqi Sunnis. Foreign jihadists account for less than 5% of the resistance. Zarqawi is Jordanian, but his recently captured lieutenants have all been Iraqi.
The US is currently fighting the Sunnis as a proxy for the Shias. The civil war is on.
David,
“At some point, factions in Iraq are going to align with factions outside Iraq to bolster their minority voice.”
Excellent point. The Shias can turn to Iraq if necessary. The Sunnis can funnel support through Syria’s border.
Posted by: phx8 at April 29, 2005 03:05 PM
|| OSI
|| “It’s often said that there’s more
|| terrorism now than ever. That’s true.
|| But, it might be simply because we shook the
|| hornet’s nest, and the terrorists
|| were already there all along, planning, and
|| waiting for the best opportunities.”
|
| I don’t think so. The insurgents are Iraqi
| Sunnis. Foreign jihadists account for less than
| 5% of the resistance. Zarqawi is Jordanian, but
| his recently captured lieutenants have all been
| Iraqi.
|
I didn’t mean they all came for IRAQ.
Many are from other origins.
I meant that we didn’t create all of the
terrorists. Some perhaps, but most were
probably already members of terrorist
organizations, or were already wanna-be-terrorists.
And, the incidents of terrorism probably
rose sharply because we shook the hornets’
nest, agitated them, got them on the run,
and that created a spike in incidents of terrorism, but I’m not sure the
total number of terrorists grew as sharply as
the number of terrorist incidents.
| phx8
| Excellent point. The Shias can turn to Iraq if
| necessary. The Sunnis can funnel support
| through Syria’s border.
Did you mean” Shias can turn to Iran ?
Posted by: One Simple Idea . . . at April 29, 2005 04:46 PMOSI,
Yes, correction, the Shias can turn to Iran.
In the meantime, the Pesh Merga refuses to integrate its 50,000 troops into the national government. Shia militias also refuse to intergrate. The Pesh Merga could probably roll every Iraqi force in the country, but the Kurds have to stay home & deter the Turks.
The all-out civil war, it’s like a slow-motion bus crash… or bush crash…
Posted by: phx8 at April 29, 2005 05:22 PM
| phx8 wrote:
| The all-out civil war, it’s like a slow-motion bus crash… or bush crash…
phx8,
You and AP and others may be correct about this.
It looks like it’s headed in that direction.
I really hope not though.
Crude oil prices plunge, settle below $50 a barrel
By George Jahn, Associated Press
Oil prices fell below $50 a barrel for the first time in more than two months Friday, declining more than $5 a barrel in the past week on rising U.S. supplies and slower economic growth.
Light, sweet crude for June delivery fell more than $2 to settle at $49.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That is lowest settlement price since Feb. 18, when Nymex oil futures closed at $48.35.
Oil broker Tom Bentz of BNP Paribas Futures said from a technical trading perspective the oil market now is “pretty much as bearish as you can get. It portends lower prices next week
Job done
At some point, factions in Iraq are going to align with factions outside Iraq to bolster their minority voice.
David, that’s something I hadn’t considered. I’ll keep an eye out for indicators now. The first thing I thought of, though, was don’t assume they’ll confine their “bolstering” to targets within Iraq.
The US is currently fighting the Sunnis as a proxy for the Shias.
phx8, that’s certainly worrying, and part of the reason I now believe the US should get out of Iraq sooner rather than later. There’s the very real danger that US troops will end up inadvertantly propping up a corrupt Shiite regime that uses extra-judicial killings, political detainments, and torture to remain in control.
And that US troops will be in the position of assisting in the repression of Sunnis who - because of the way the election was handled - actually are underrepresented in the government and are rightfully afraid of retaliation and revenge by the now dominant Shiites. I don’t think it’s a good idea to put our soldiers in the middle of something like that without openly taking sides - without clear objectives.
Hopefully, no one (especially an American) is hoping it will fail just so they can say “I told you so!”.
Damned straight. Things are bad, but it has the potential to completely suck for America. I mean, hurray that Iraqis no longer have to live under Saddam, but another Islamist regime in the Middle East is bad for the US.
It’s a hard call for me whether repressive authoritarian regimes are better than Islamic fundamentalists like the 9/11 perpetrators. But if were going to make changes in the Middle East using American troops and tax dollars, I think the criterea should be which is better for America, not which is better for them.
And you also have to wonder if it needed to turn out this way. While state building is still poorly understood, the UN has the most experience in doing it, and some successes.
Most importantly, unlike President Bush, the UN has the legitimacy to tell guys like Grand Ayatollah Sistani to sit down and shut up. Don’t forget that Bush didn’t want direct elections that would bring the Islamists into power. They were forced on him by Grand Ayatollah Sistani.
Oil prices fell below $50 a barrel…Job done.
Ha! Good one. I just read an article by Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) in that pinko rag, The Nation. I don’t totally agree with his philosophy, but I thought this was interesting,
I asked both General Petraeus and our embassy about US plans to build military bases in Iraq, which in my view would indicate a prolonged US presence. I was told—emphatically—that there are no plans to construct military bases. Yet Congress recently passed a huge supplemental wartime appropriations bill that includes, at the request of the Bush Administration, $500 million for military base construction. In Iraq.
Something to think about… Yikes! Sorry for the long post.
Posted by: American Pundit at April 30, 2005 12:12 AMAP, yeah, I got the idea asking myself what I would do if I were Kurdish in Iraq. My first alleigance would not be to Iraq, it would be to my Kurdish brothers and sisters in Iraq and Turkey. And who would I call on if I needed help - family first, and other Kurds second, and since the Iraqi border is not defining of who Kurds are, their reach for assistance will likely go beyond the Iraqi borders. Their are similar religious ties that extend well beyond the borders.
There is no doubt in my mind, the current Iraqi leadership is acutely aware of this potential and must be pulling hair out trying to compensate for that potential ever becoming a reality. For if it does, it is very likely Iraqi sovereignty defined by borders will never become a reality. It would become like the USSR with factions and geographic sections awaiting their moment to seize independence from Iraq. For no other reason, secularism as a dominant theme in Iraqi government hasn’t a chance, in my opinion.
Posted by: David R. Remer at April 30, 2005 02:18 AMDid I fail to mention that nearly all of the Exiled Iraqis that now run the Iraqi Government are still paying for thier Flats in London?
Posted by: Aldous at April 30, 2005 02:39 AMI wonder if Mr. Bush thought first of how hard democracy is to administer in countries that have had it for centuries.
We can only hope that this “experiment” takes hold.
Posted by: Rocky at April 30, 2005 07:40 PMLet us never forget that Iraq is a Republican War. Republicans and Republicans ALONE take full credit for Iraq.
Posted by: Aldous at May 1, 2005 04:18 AMHave you guys noticed the deafening silence from our Red Column Comrades on this thread? The other Topics are nearly twice as long as this one.
Oh well. Out of Sight. Out of Mind.
Posted by: Aldous at May 1, 2005 06:14 AMI love tossing out an unassailable article. It’s bad for generating hits, but I prefer the credibility to creating gratuitous controversy. Mostly. ;)
The responses have all been generally well thought out, intelligent, and insightful. Thanks!
Posted by: American Pundit at May 1, 2005 07:05 AMAldous,
“Have you guys noticed the deafening silence from our Red Column Comrades on this thread? The other Topics are nearly twice as long as this one.”
Aldous, you know that the Reds are the patriots of America right?
Do you hate patriots, Aldous?
Aldous, do you hate America?
Why do you hate America, Aldous?
If you hate America so much why don’t you just leave?
…
Yeah, that’s what I thought, now get a job liberal hippy.
Posted by: Zeek at May 1, 2005 11:24 PMZeek, your failure to observe our critique the message, not the messenger policy requires your posting privilges here be suspended.
Also, Democrats and Liberals in this column, references to those in the Red column such as above regarding their lack of comments here, is a form of provocation and borders on flame baiting. Let everyone here stick to critiqing the messages that are left here, and suspend trying to provoke hostile responses from others in other columns on this site. Our goal is for all to feel welcome and free to express their opinion without being attacked, provoked, or baited into emotional tirades provided they observe our policy.
Posted by: WatchBlog Manager at May 3, 2005 02:34 AMWB Manager,
I understand, probably as well or better, the reason for the policy.
I think Zeek was joking.
Posted by: Rocky at May 3, 2005 07:16 AMI think the questions are OK.
It’s the name calling (e.g. “liberal hippy”) that is unacceptable.
: )
I’m actually sorry to see Zeek get banned.
Posted by: One Simple Idea for Transparency and Accountability . . . at May 6, 2005 02:26 PMOf course, I’m wondering;
what prevents someone from coming
back with a different name and E-Mail address ?
Perhaps, we need Biometrics ?
Posted by: One Simple Idea for Transparency and Accountability . . . at May 6, 2005 02:29 PMOSI,
“Of course, I’m wondering;
what prevents someone from coming
back with a different name and E-Mail address ?”
I believe this website uses an IP-# blocker.
Very tricky.
