Democrats & Liberals Archives

Calling All Soccer Moms!

Sometimes there is a convergence of thoughts, images and pieces of information that trigger clarity, even putting forgotten memories in their proper perspective. I thought it another gaffe or contrived RoveVision nuance when I saw the ABC interview where George Bush expressed support for civil unions (although it contradicts the Republican platform), which I also preferred.

When announcing the proposed Gay Marriage ban amendment, Bush never even acknowledged what many consider a pragmatic compromise, which his opponent John Kerry already supported. Although many angry social Conservatives will not even admit it is a ‘flip-flop’ on Bush’s part, the announcement still did not register properly with me.

It was probably due in part to my now obsessive poll watching, of late. The knowledge gained from such analysis makes this Kerry supporter very confident on the eve of this election, a stark contrast to the same period back in November 2000. And, it is also the results of this Zogby tracking polling of Wisconsin that adds to this conviction.

But, it was the Votemaster of electoral-vote.com citing this Los Angeles Times’ article on a revolt among the Evangelical Christian ranks, that made everything click. Apparently, Karl Rove believes Bush would’ve won comfortably in 2000 - if about 4 million Evangelical Christians had not decided to sit out the election. It became clear to this observer that mere weeks after George W. Bush was sworn in, the campaign for his re-election began in earnest. That would entail an inordinate amount of trips over the first 3 years of Bush’s term, to the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania (the Keystone state visits even outnumbering vacation trips to the ‘Western White House’), and maximizing the Conservative base turnout in the 2004 election with an eye on those elusive 4 million Evangelicals.

What made the reassuring Zogby tracking numbers from Wisconsin so ironic, was from what state those conflicted Evangelicals featured in the L.A. Times article hailed from.

Yes, the Dairy State, Cheese Head Central, battleground state and home of the dastardly Green Bay Packers, whom this Bear’s fan found a worthy enough cause allowing him to root for them to defeat the Washington Redskins! Here is where you’ll find a different breed of Evangelicals, akin to a ‘kinder, gentler’ version, but numberin
g only 10% percent of the overall voter group. Dubbed ‘freestyle evangelicals’, their moderation of views is no doubt due to a flock made up predominantly of minorities, and residing in northern Blue States. Although agreeing with Bush on abortion and many social issues, they buck the Evangelical trend of absolute allegiance, conflicted by the administration’s failure on such equally important issues like the economy, health care and Iraq.

Bush had 80% percent of the Evangelical vote in 2000, with the campaign hoping to maintain that base in 2004, but shooting for 90% percent. I saw today, Commerce Secretary Donald Evans accuse John Kerry of allowing polling to dictate his alleged exploitation of the Iraq explosives story. Interestingly, the L.A. Times’ cites the most recent Pew Research Polling showing Bush’s support among Evangelicals dropping 4 points to 70% percent, in just three weeks.

Which begs the question – if similar polling would cause the President to make an unexpected detour towards the traditionally Blue State of New Jersey, and send Dick Cheney winging off to Hawaii for a mere booty of 4 Electoral votes – wouldn’t this trigger near panic at BC04?

It is very likely that ‘freestyle evangelicals’ are among those Wisconsin voters who have rather significantly broke towards John Kerry, in the past 5 days. Unfortunately, the Bush/Cheney camp cannot utilize PhotoShop to fill in the space vacated by these lost souls. Only warm registered bodies will do, and we now know their identity by the ‘carrot and stick’ (civil unions) fashioned by the boys at RoveVision.

Calling all Soccer Moms!

Posted by Bert M. Caradine at November 2, 2004 4:09 AM