Democrats & Liberals: Archives

October 24, 2004

Be Hopeful, Be Very Hopeful

The only payoff to the Bush campaign’s sudden lurch into a Fear Factor campaign theme mode, would be an election season finale cameo by those ‘enemies of freedom’ hell-bent on either electing John Kerry, disrupting the Nov. 2 vote and/or reinforcing the President’s war on terrorism cred’. When Reagan’s ‘Bear In the Woods’ ad debut, America was still in the grips of the worry, fear and frustration over the prolonged Iran Hostage Crisis.

This was not an act of a Cold War enemy, whose action may have been anticipated, if not given us more alternatives to diffusing or retaliating. The new Bush ad ‘Wolves’ would’ve been more pivotal, if the President was asking for a second term in the immediate wake of 9/11. Yet ironically, the new ad would’ve been very valuable at the time, in convincing this nation (and probably the world) to make enormous sacrifices to effectively confront terrorism. However, the President’s failure to ask for that sacrifice signaled the first miss-step of his tenure, soon to be riddled with even more.

Although, a U.S. Intelligence report has revised the number of Iraq insurgents upwards, and the number of attacks on Coalition soldiers has risen to 90 a day, the Bush cyber apologists fear our Nov. 2nd election to be the one in greater jeopardy. They have taken to accusing the Democrats of attempting to steal the election, citing many reports of fraud, yet providing no sourced links to back up such assertions. ‘Some people have said…’ that George Soros has been caught trading money for votes in other countries, is a good example. Other than sporadic irregularities and voting machine glitches, the boldest act of malfeasance comes from a Republican connected group, accused of fraud in several states.

But, again the news media deserves credit for whipping so few accounts of errors, into a frenzy of fear and ultimately a republic in anarchy, as the ‘disenfranchised voter’ has now become the new ‘security mom’. Why would the campaigns already have in place hundreds of lawyers, if there were not a good chance we’ll see a repeat of Florida 2000? Such anxious voters would be ideal prey for a Bush/Cheney stump speech/soundbite only a Hunter S. Thompson could appreciate. Unfortunately, they are not showing up on the GOP’s radar, but are erroneously showing up on Jeb Bush’s felon list.

Hopefully, before one of the WatchBlog Red Column editors get a hold of this story from Ohio, I can give you the non-hysterical, conspiracy theory-challenged account, which details valid concerns. Apparently, various Democratic groups have registered more than 600,000 new voters in the mother of all battleground states, and so far, the state Republicans have been able to challenge (legitimately) only 35,000 of those new registrants.

Only by tearing down John Kerry and sufficiently scaring the electorate, can George Bush win this election. But, hopefully it is the unseen factors (new voters, undercounted minorities and young adults with cell phones), that are scaring BC04. I heard somewhere that King Karl believes Bush needs a 4% percent lead on election eve, to have a chance.

The Kerry camp plans to counter with an upbeat, positive message by pulling out the party big guns to pump up the base, but with an added emphasis on women voters. Now, thrown into the mix is the rapidly spreading rumor that hints there might be a significant announcement when the ‘Comeback Kid’ President Bill Clinton stumps with Kerry in Philadelphia, on Monday.

Question is, what is America now in the mood for?

Posted by Bert M. Caradine at October 24, 2004 01:31 AM
Comments
Comment #31453

Bert,

The fear factor is not a one way street here. I mean c’mon- Bush has a secret plan to draft all the nations young voters? Bush has a secret plan to take away all the ‘seasoned citizen’ voter’s social security checks? Hell he’s even so rascist that he’s gonna suppress the black vote. Kettle calling the pot black.

The real story will be the enormous campaign of voter fraud democrats are now engaged in to rig this election. 10,000 lawyers ready to file lawsuits all across the country? I sure hope Kerry doesn’t take that low low road. Because it will get ugly, very ugly. This election has gone on long enough. I don’t doubt though that democrats will have no problem dragging this country through that kind of desparate grab for power.

Posted by: eric simonson at October 24, 2004 02:14 AM
Comment #31454

I wish the Democrats good luck mobilizing all the “new” voters they’ve registered in Ohio. On the other hand, I believe that Mary Poppins is a citizen of Great Britain. When she shows up on November 2nd to vote for John Kerry, I hope a savvy Republican poll observor will challenge her right to vote in Ohio.

Posted by: Martin at October 24, 2004 02:16 AM
Comment #31459

Eric said:

The real story will be the enormous campaign of voter fraud democrats are now engaged in to rig this election. 10,000 lawyers ready to file lawsuits all across the country?

I will keep asking Eric for you guys to supply evidence of this supposed fraud, you say we’re ‘now engaged in’. The one ‘Mary Poppins’ example (which was caught), is a good start. But, it is gonna take much more to get to ‘enormous’.

Posted by: Bert M. Caradine at October 24, 2004 03:02 AM
Comment #31462

I find this comment on “fear factor” laughable. Considering Democrats pulled out the draft card, I have no reason to believe this is a one sided thing.

Posted by: Lance at October 24, 2004 03:15 AM
Comment #31466
Only by tearing down John Kerry and sufficiently scaring the electorate, can George Bush win this election.

Excellent article Bert. Isn’t it odd that you still don’t hear anything about issues from Bush? As far as I can tell, they’ve resorted to the argument:

-Sure, Bush has consistently made the wrong decision, but it’s consistency that counts. When Bush says he’s going to do something stupid, you can bet your bottom dollar he will.

Speaking of the draft scare, here’s a really good clip of Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) explaining why young people don’t believe Bush when he says there won’t be one. SPANK!

I found that on “The League of Pissed Off Voters” site. It’s an excellent site with this very good ranking system for our Congresspeople:

See how your politicians stack up on the important issues using the League’s VoterPunch scorecard. And if they’re wack, replace them with someone better this November. Click here to get started.
Posted by: American Pundit at October 24, 2004 03:42 AM
Comment #31500

Eric,

Nobody WANTS the Draft the same way nobody WANTS to be destitute and homeless. Since when have you seen someone WANT to go to Chapter 11 Bankrupcy?

These things are events where you have NO choice. You are always FORCED to do it. Right now Bush is going in a direction where the Draft is UNAVOIDABLE. Unless you can tell me where we can get reserves if North Korea or Iran starts to act, a DRAFT is a very real possibility.

Aldous.

Posted by: Aldous at October 24, 2004 06:35 AM
Comment #31525

Bert

Voter Fraud

The evidence of voter fraud is available in your own post. Registering Mary Poppins was an example of voter frauds. So was Donald Duck and Dick Tracy. These bogus voters were caught because they were extreme. Thousands of others have been detected. Probably thousands have gotten past.

If a voter is challenged at the polls, we really can’t tell if it was fraud or suppression until we do an investigation. The two look alike to an observer. That is probably why the Gore folks in Florida talked so much about voter suppression but were unable to prove a single intentional case in court.

In response to my challenge to give an example of voter suppression, a contributor on another part of this blog mentioned a 1998 example of a man being turned away ostensibly because he did not have a picture ID. Evidently the poll worker handled the situation badly, but this could also be an example of attempted voter fraud. We will never know because the voter in question refused to pursue an action. You would think that someone who took the time to go to the polls would be angry enough to press his claim when denied his legal rights.

Let’s take both fraud and suppression seriously and I mean in the legal sense. If you are denied your legal right to vote, please take it all the way to court and testify under oath and punish those responsible. If you are trying to commit fraud, please do it in such a way that the authorities can find out and put you in jail. Fraud and suppression are equally effective ways to disenfranchise voters.

Posted by: Jack at October 24, 2004 10:22 AM
Comment #31538

Jack,

The type of serious ‘massive’ voter fraud Bush apologists are alleging, would have securing a Kerry victory as it’s motive. Registering well-known fictional characters names (hello! red flag!), fits just below ‘3rd rate burglary’ as an effective means of accomplishing that goal.

These bogus voters were caught because they were extreme. Thousands of others have been detected. Probably thousands have gotten past.

So you’re saying Jack, the thousands of others and the probably thousands have gotten past are all part of this Democratic scheme to steal the election?

Not good enough.

Posted by: Bert M. Caradine at October 24, 2004 02:35 PM
Comment #31541

> If you are denied your legal right to vote,
> please take it all the way to court and
> testify under oath and punish those
> responsible.

See, that’s the whole problem: Whether the suppression is done through blatantly illegal means (such as demanding identification cards) or through not-quite-legal means (such as frivolously challenging voters at random and causing long delays in the voting location), or through corrupt means (such as deliberately allowing “erroneous” felon lists to go out), once the polls close, it’s too late. Once you’ve been disenfranchised, there’s nothing you can do about it. You can sue, but you can’t reverse the results of the election. Even if a hundred thousand people can prove they were erroneously or criminally disenfranchised, they will never get their votes back.

The thousands of people who were NOT felons in Florida, but who were “mistakenly” prevented from voting, probably would have tipped the election in Gore’s favor. We Democrats are painfully aware of how such voter suppression shenanigans have a real and totally irreversable effect.

-Cf

Posted by: Christopher Fahey at October 24, 2004 04:05 PM
Comment #31559

Talk about negligence: How does 350 tons of high explosives strike you?

I guess this will make the consequences of going in light pretty clear.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at October 24, 2004 06:59 PM
Comment #31564

Stephen, I read that story too. It’s bad enough the explosives got out, but this part’s worse:

The DOD even went so far as to order the Iraqis not to inform the IAEA that the materials had gone missing. Informing the IAEA, of course, would lead to it becoming public knowledge in the United States.

“DOD”, of course, means Donald Rumsfeld. A friend of mine was relating a conversation he had with a friend in the Marines the other day, who said that while military people tend to prefer Bush to Kerry pretty strongly, that it’s nothing compared to the degree to which they hate Rumsfeld. It makes sense: a great deal of our problems in Iraq, from the too-small troop numbers, to the underuse of special forces, to the overreliance on shaky intelligence, to the optimistic timeframes, can all be traced right to Rummy’s desk.

-Cf

Posted by: Christopher Fahey at October 24, 2004 07:34 PM
Comment #31577

KERRY WILL LOSE.

a. Iowa Electronic Market, a futures market, run by the Univ. of Iowa, predicts Bush victory. The site has been wrong only twice. That’s a better predictor than any poll, or any campaign spin.

b. www.Tradesports.com - a futures market where you can bet who will win the election also suggests that Bush will win.

In both places, people put their money where their mouth is.

These are the facts. Just the facts.

Posted by: Hermes1LA at October 24, 2004 09:48 PM
Comment #31583

Hermes1LA,

I’ll take the kids at Nickelodeon predicting a Kerry win over your two polls, because they have never been wrong!

Posted by: Bert M. Caradine at October 24, 2004 10:14 PM
Comment #31591

I predict a come from behind victory for…
Lyndon La Rouche.
;)

Posted by: Political Puke at October 24, 2004 10:54 PM
Comment #31595

FEAR?!!?

Howzabout Algore yelling, “He betrayed our country! He played on our fears!” This from the man who invented the internet, the man whose life the book/movie “Love Story” was based on, the man who accepted $5,000 apiece from a bunch of monks who took a vow of poverty, the man who said of these contributions, “There is no controlling legal authority.”

Howzabout the actress who said”Women should vote or rape will be legal.”??!!

Howzabout “the Breck Girl” John Edwards saying “If you’d vote for Bush you must be INSANE!”

Howzabout John “effing” Kerry saying “Bush woill privatize Social Security.” to a bunch of seniors, implying that the whole thing would be at risk?

Howzabout the draft proposed by Charles Rangel(Black DEMOCRAT of NY) and Fritz Hollings(White Democrat of SC, former gov. of SC who oversaw the raising of the Confederate flag over the SC state capitol and segregation in the SC schools, not to mention a few recent racist incidents… do a search.) The recent vote on the draft was defeated 402-2 in the House[NEITHER RANGEL NOR HOLLINGS(in the senate) VOTED FOR THEIR OWN BILL.])

Posted by: Political Puke at October 24, 2004 11:17 PM
Comment #31613

Hermes, The American voter will vote how they see fit. My experience of American politics is that rules are made to broken, especially when dumbass political consultants rely on them to the exclusion of actual campaign strategy.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at October 25, 2004 12:38 AM
Comment #31614

Hey Puke, Welcome to WatchBlog. You should click around a little bit and read some of the other WatchBlog threads. You’ll find that WatchBloggers, even your fellow Kerry opponents, are far, far more civil and dignified then you have just been. You raise interesting points, but your aimless ranting and adolescent wisecracks don’t help your case at all.

I wasn’t aware that Rangel and Hollings voted against their own bill. I’m glad to hear it: The point of the bill was to give members of Congress who supported the Iraq War a chance to put their political money where their mouth was, to take a stand either way on whether or not they support the draft. Each member of Congress was thus forced to take a stand on the issue. Point made.

-Cf

Posted by: Christopher Fahey at October 25, 2004 12:39 AM
Comment #31616

—> Stephen Daugherty.

I agree that every rule has an exception. Even Iowa electronics market was wrong twice.

However, it has been right almost always, except twice. Therefore, assuming you are right, it will be an exception, and not the rule.

I admit I don’t know the future. And you don’t know the future. However Iowa electronics market is the best predictor that we have. Therefore, I can make a reasonable inference that Bush will win. I can state with 98% confidence that Bush will prevail.

Can you say with 98% confidence that Kerry will win?

Posted by: Hermes1LA at October 25, 2004 12:57 AM
Comment #31623

Hermes1LA
> However Iowa electronics market is the
> best predictor that we have.

No it is not. By your own feeble standards, Nickelodeon’s poll is superior because it has never been wrong. They predict a Kerry landslide. I don’t put stock in either of these polls, and neither should you. Certainly not enough to go around calling these silly predictions “facts”.

> Can you say with 98% confidence that Kerry
> will win?

By any mathematical standard, being wrong twice does not equal 98% accuracy, unless you happen to think that the Iowa Electronics Market has been around since Thomas Jefferson’s election.

-Cf

Posted by: Christopher Fahey at October 25, 2004 01:21 AM
Comment #31659

I believe people’s minds can be affected by things that equations like that don’t and can’t allow for themselves, necessarily. The logic by which those equations work can be bypassed altogether under the right circumstances

Other indicators have arisen in the past days indicate that Bush is in trouble in terms of his election prospects. The problem here, is that you are relying on logic to predict human behavior, and human behavior has a wild logic all its own.

Posted by: Stephen Daugherty at October 25, 2004 07:32 AM
Comment #31671

I predict with 100% confidence that Kerry will win. In fact, it will skew a little towards Nickelodeon’s “landslide”.

We’re already seeing massive new voter registrations. The polls are meaningless.

John Zogby predicts a Kerry win, also.

Posted by: American Pundit at October 25, 2004 08:36 AM
Comment #31672

Hermes wrote:

These are the facts. Just the facts.

when referring to two election predictions. I think this statement is an excellent illustration of how folks view things these days: Take a tidbit, turn it into Truth, and run with it.

If a meteorologist says it will rain the day after tomorrow, no one will call it fact. They’ll call it a forecast, which is nothing more than a prediction. Even if the guy has only been wrong twice by no means does that guarantee it will rain.

Here’s the fact: The Iowa Electronics Market is proferring a guess. Probably a good guess, but nevertheless it’s a shot in the dark with an election that is looking this close.

Here’s the fact: Nobody knows who’s going to win. Nobody.

Posted by: Alejo at October 25, 2004 08:45 AM
Comment #31673
We’re already seeing massive new voter registrations. The polls are meaningless.

John Zogby predicts a Kerry win, also.

Interesting logic here. A comment about how the polls mean nothing, followed by a link to a poll.

Ahh well, just more of what we’ve become accustomed to.

Posted by: joebagodonuts at October 25, 2004 08:46 AM
Comment #31712

jbod, the link refers to John Zogby, the individual. It has nothing to do with the Zogby polls.

Ahh well, just more of what we’ve become accustomed to.

Posted by: American Pundit at October 25, 2004 10:59 AM
Comment #32928

Eric, as one of those 10,000 lawyers, I must say you’ve gotta be one of the most ignorant people on the internet! First of all, lawyers are officers of the court, and are ethically obligated to uphold laws, not break them. We will be watching polls to make sure they open and close on time, don’t run out of ballots, broken voting machines are replaced, and poll workers follow proper procedures. We will also be watching for illegal electioneering, intimidation of voters, and other “dirty tricks.” Could you please explain to me why the GOP, which claims to bring democracy to places like Iraq and Afghanistan, works so hard to keep American citizens from voting in our own country?

Posted by: Don at October 31, 2004 01:32 AM